Author

Topic: HashFast announces specs for new ASIC: 400GH/s - page 541. (Read 880816 times)

full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100
Well on their MPP they say if no ROI by Jan 23, 2014 (comes and goes) then they will give out chips or that's how I'm reading it.

How fast they take to send out chips? No idea.

I'll check -- original claim was 90 days from the time you start mining.  This would make the worst case scenario 23 days?

Oh you're 100% right. It's 90 days to mine not mine by Jan 23, 2014. Got confused by their examples and missed that one sentence.

Yeah if you start mining start of Dec + 90days = 1st of March. Getting extra chips then would be pretty much useless. It's much worst than I thought.
I was thinking alright Jan 23, not that damaging (since that's what they used in their examples).

Their chips will be worthless by March 1st, 2014. Well not exactly worthless. Just adding up to 4x the power most likely still won't let you get your ROI.

Right now the 90-day difficulty increase is a measly 441%, i shudder to think what it will be if just half of the ASIC manufacturers keep their word... 
Exponential rates Sad
sr. member
Activity: 308
Merit: 251
The realist
Well on their MPP they say if no ROI by Jan 23, 2014 (comes and goes) then they will give out chips or that's how I'm reading it.

How fast they take to send out chips? No idea.

I'll check -- original claim was 90 days from the time you start mining.  This would make the worst case scenario 23 days?

Oh you're 100% right. It's 90 days to mine not mine by Jan 23, 2014. Got confused by their examples and missed that one sentence.

Yeah if you start mining start of Dec + 90days = 1st of March. Getting extra chips then would be pretty much useless. It's much worst than I thought.
I was thinking alright Jan 23, not that damaging (since that's what they used in their examples).

Their chips will be worthless by March 1st, 2014. Well not exactly worthless. Just adding up to 4x the power most likely still won't let you get your ROI.
sr. member
Activity: 308
Merit: 251
The realist
Well on their MPP they say if no ROI by Jan 23, 2014 (comes and goes) then they will give out chips or that's how I'm reading it.

How fast they take to send out chips? No idea.
full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100
You reckon you guys could achieve ROI. Starting date 1st Dec and end date "January 23, 2014"?

If not, get ready to prepare some more money for PCB/assembly/delivery (at least 1.4k-2k per chip)

Or once again ... sell the chips to someone else.
...

So much of everyone's reasoning revolves around the greater fool theory. 
If building boards for these chips makes no economic sense to you, why should it make sense for anyone else?

And where are people getting January? 
HashFast guarantees to send out your *first* Baby Jet by the start of next year, you can't request a refund until 2014.
Mine that January baby, and *request* your chips in April, 2014.
If everything goes as promised, which will be a first, you'll get your chips in April, then you can decide on fiendishly clever deployment schemes, like unloading chips to a greater fool.
sr. member
Activity: 308
Merit: 251
The realist
How much you reckon you could sell a raw hashfast chip (gen1, batch1) for after Jan 23, 2014 anyway?
sr. member
Activity: 308
Merit: 251
The realist
So all talks are off once sales have been completed?
donator
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1080
Gerald Davis
You reckon you guys could achieve ROI. Starting date 1st Dec and end date "January 23, 2014"?

If not, get ready to prepare some more money for PCB/assembly/delivery (at least 1.4k-2k per chip)

Or once again ... sell the chips to someone else.

Then again all units have been sold, there is nobody for your to "protect" anymore.  Not really sure why you are here?
sr. member
Activity: 308
Merit: 251
The realist
You reckon you guys could achieve ROI. Starting date 1st Dec and end date "January 23, 2014"?

If not, get ready to prepare some more money for PCB/assembly/delivery (at least 1.4k-2k per chip)
sr. member
Activity: 308
Merit: 251
The realist
Let's just say Chips get done by Nov 10th (best case scenario) and they get delivered to HashFast within 2-3 days. Then they got about 4-5 days to put everything in boards and rig it all up / water cooling etc. So it'll be Nov 17-18th at this point and then they have to send it out for delivery. Another day. And could take anywhere from 3 to 8 days for customers to get it. That's around almost December.

Let's just hope December difficulty is not thru the roof Roll Eyes
donator
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1080
Gerald Davis
I guess these are finally sold out.  Was working on getting the funds for this but I guess that ship has sailed so I guess we'll see if this MPP will help with ROI.  Even with this plan there's a good chance you wouldn't ROI because of the addition other costs aside from the chips, if the first machine wasn't able to ROI it's likely that the other machines you could build with the free chips would be at an even greater disadvantage by the time they were built so unless the cost was crazy low in comparison to the first unit you'd be digging your own hole deeper.

Or you could sell the chips.  What do you think chips will be worth in GH/s in January?  $4 per GH/s?  $2 per GH/s $1 per GH/s?  Lets use $1.  1,600 GH/s is then $1,600.  So sell the chips to someone else, maybe someone like you who was looking to buy a miner but missed the chance. 

Which would only make the babyjet profitable if you managed to mine $4k by that time. But also, raw chips aren't that useful as people will need to be able to buy PCBs to put them in, figure out how to do BGA soldering or get someone to do it for 'em, etc.

Which is why nobody bought bitfury or Avalon chips.  Oh wait they did.   The company has already indicated they will have boards available and if there is a market (and 880TH/s is ~ 4x the mining capacity of all Avalon chips sold) third parties will offer the same thing.

Come on you don't honestly think the only option for someone buying chips is to break out their soldering iron and home build a board do you? 
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
I guess these are finally sold out.  Was working on getting the funds for this but I guess that ship has sailed so I guess we'll see if this MPP will help with ROI.  Even with this plan there's a good chance you wouldn't ROI because of the addition other costs aside from the chips, if the first machine wasn't able to ROI it's likely that the other machines you could build with the free chips would be at an even greater disadvantage by the time they were built so unless the cost was crazy low in comparison to the first unit you'd be digging your own hole deeper.

Or you could sell the chips.  What do you think chips will be worth in GH/s in January?  $4 per GH/s?  $2 per GH/s $1 per GH/s?  Lets use $1.  1,600 GH/s is then $1,600.  So sell the chips to someone else, maybe someone like you who was looking to buy a miner but missed the chance. 

Which would only make the babyjet profitable if you managed to mine $4k by that time. But also, raw chips aren't that useful as people will need to be able to buy PCBs to put them in, figure out how to do BGA soldering or get someone to do it for 'em, etc.
sr. member
Activity: 308
Merit: 251
The realist
http://www.forexminute.com/bitcoin/now-get-the-new-bitcoin-mining-chip-from-hashfast-technologies-llc-12140

Lol everyone who just ordered Hashfast just got done.

Quote
A spokesperson for HashFast Technologies LLC says that the GN chip will perform more than 400 Ghash per second and will ‘tape-out’ and be sent to manufacturing in August. However, he admitted that fabrication will take a little bit over two months and due to that reason the chips cannot be shipped anytime before October to customers.

So I'm guessing mid Nov to early Dec for you guys. No way you're going to achieve ROI.
donator
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1080
Gerald Davis
I guess these are finally sold out.  Was working on getting the funds for this but I guess that ship has sailed so I guess we'll see if this MPP will help with ROI.  Even with this plan there's a good chance you wouldn't ROI because of the addition other costs aside from the chips, if the first machine wasn't able to ROI it's likely that the other machines you could build with the free chips would be at an even greater disadvantage by the time they were built so unless the cost was crazy low in comparison to the first unit you'd be digging your own hole deeper.

Or you could sell the chips.  What do you think chips will be worth in GH/s in January?  $4 per GH/s?  $2 per GH/s $1 per GH/s?  Lets use $1.  1,600 GH/s is $1,600.  So sell the chips to someone else, maybe someone like you who was looking to buy a miner but missed the chance.  
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
I'm a Labcoin Lapdog, yes I am.  Everybody buy Labcoin.  Don't even look at anything else!

The MPP says that if you don't make back your investment in a couple of months, HashFast will make sure you do.  Why would anybody have a problem with that?  Oh, right, it's not the company Ytterbium invested in.

No. They will give you up to 4x chips 90 days later.  There is zero guarantee that those chips will ever be profitable.
hero member
Activity: 609
Merit: 500
I guess these are finally sold out.  Was working on getting the funds for this but I guess that ship has sailed so I guess we'll see if this MPP will help with ROI.  Even with this plan there's a good chance you wouldn't ROI because of the addition other costs aside from the chips, if the first machine wasn't able to ROI it's likely that the other machines you could build with the free chips would be at an even greater disadvantage by the time they were built so unless the cost was crazy low in comparison to the first unit you'd be digging your own hole deeper.

sr. member
Activity: 490
Merit: 255
I think the MPP as structured won't necessarily get you to ROI...

That being said... they are the only company I know of that is even trying to structure some delivery (and more importantly post-delivery) incentives in the miner's favor.

I personally find all the legalese very off-putting... but our legal system is what it is.  I believe HF is trying/will do the right thing by their customers.  I have an early pre-order with Hashfast and currently content with my decision.

full member
Activity: 524
Merit: 100
I'm a Labcoin Lapdog, yes I am.  Everybody buy Labcoin.  Don't even look at anything else!

The MPP says that if you don't make back your investment in a couple of months, HashFast will make sure you do.  Why would anybody have a problem with that?  Oh, right, it's not the company Ytterbium invested in.

See, noah, three (3) means "a couple" only to polygamists & people who flunked math.
Even polygamists don't consider getting a few chips in the mail to be ROI.
How's ur maths?


My Maths R Gud.  It goes like this:

Should I buy a KnCMiner for $17.49 Gh/s with no free chips later if the network explodes, or
Should I buy a HashFast for $14,00 Gh/s with up to 4x the hashing coming in the mail if the network explodes?

Wow, I just can't decide.  Maybe I should ask crumbs for a cupla idears.
full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100
I'm a Labcoin Lapdog, yes I am.  Everybody buy Labcoin.  Don't even look at anything else!

The MPP says that if you don't make back your investment in a couple of months, HashFast will make sure you do.  Why would anybody have a problem with that?  Oh, right, it's not the company Ytterbium invested in.

See, noah, three (3) means "a couple" only to polygamists & people who flunked math.
Even polygamists don't consider getting a few chips in the mail to be ROI.
How's ur maths?
full member
Activity: 524
Merit: 100
I'm a Labcoin Lapdog, yes I am.  Everybody buy Labcoin.  Don't even look at anything else!

The MPP says that if you don't make back your investment in a couple of months, HashFast will make sure you do.  Why would anybody have a problem with that?  Oh, right, it's not the company Ytterbium invested in.
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
Yeah the plan sounds good when your hear it but when you delve into it, it doesn't really sound that enticing.

The thing that concerns me most is:

1. Pay more to earn back ROI

2. If difficulty jumps up a shit load (which it will), then they said they will just give you even more chips.*

*3. If they do give you more chips, that would mean you would have to spend EVEN MORE in-order to get em to mine

Let's just say they end up giving you 4 to 5 chips. You'll have to spend at least another $6-7.5k to make your money back.

The one thing it does do is make the math much more complicated to model. With a fixed price/Gh you just plug it into http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/ and see how it looks for a given difficulty increase rate.  

The simple model would, given a start date t0, a hashrate h, an overall network hashrate function f(t)  - just integrate ∫(f(t)/h dt/dBTC) from t0 to infinity (where dBTC is the change in the total number of btc already mined).  

If you have a probability density function for t0 you can just do a double integral over t0, and t.  f(t) is usually modeled with an exponential function so that should be pretty easy.  

In order to model ROI given the MPP you need too:

1) Estimate the probability distribution for when you'll get your unit, call that x.
2) estimate your ROI over 90 days using the typical mining estimation model.
3) for each value of t0 and f(t), calculate how much hashrate you would have needed to see an ROI = 100%
4) then, divide that number by 400 and take the integer ceiling, or 4, whichever is less.
5) now, estimate the cost acquiring the PCB for the chips,
6) also estimate how much time it'll take to get the chips and the PCBs and everything assembled call that t1
7) do a new mining calculation on that starting at t0 + 90 days + t1, at which point the range of possible total network hashrate will be much more difficult to estimate.
8] see if the ROI on the second calculation, plus the first 90 day calculation is greater then 100% of your initial purchase cost + the cost of getting PCBs/Cases/etc for the new chips.

So... basically what the MPP does is massively increase uncertainty.  You'll probably make more then you otherwise would but it's basically impossible to guess how much more. Especially since the extra chips will be based on the hashrate when you got the miner, not at the time you get the chips through the MPP.

It's another example of HashFast foisting all the risk onto the "investomer".  Unless there is a perfect balance between network growth and HashFast's ability to execute, the investomer loses. The MPP just creates a couple more possible 'balance points' the likelihood of which are impossible to guess and also depends on HashFast.

On the other hand, no matter what happens HashFast makes a ton of money.

That's why I feel that investing in companies virtual-stock Labcoin are the best, and really the way to go right now. Maybe when the diff starts to max out you'll be able to buy cheap chips again.   There are additional risks in that they could be total scams, and the principals could just run off with your money, or they could skim off the top and keep revenue for themselves.    

But, excluding that (and it's obviously a big exclusion) the incentives are aligned.  If they make money, you make money. And (again, excluding embezzling IPO funds) if they fail to execute and you lose your money - they don't get anything either.

Being treated as a "real" investor is much better then being an "investomer" who bears most of the risk despite low probability of rewards compared to the vendors.

(Plus, with the shares you can sell at any time.  Labcoin is 3.2x it's IPO price at the moment...)
Jump to: