Topic: HASHNEST Discussion and Support Thread - page 187. (Read 660097 times)

Yes I purchased 2 a few Fridays ago, and by Monday evening it was up and running.

Hi.
Posted first on this thread to try and get some real actual numbers people are receiving with hashnest AntminerS5

I was pleased to see more people looking for the same answers as me!

Like you I really don’t know if I get AntminerS5 or PACMiC. Ideally I would get one of each and see the difference my self.

But I can only afford one now.

PACMiC seems to be the "saver" bet right now. Thanks to you’re calculations I can estimate that after 93 days I should get my invested 1 Bitcoin back plus some profit.

My question is how much profit? Can you provide a number please? 





 

PPLNS/TH Earnings

01.06  0.0074489
02.06  0.0121662
03.06  0.0101475
04.06  0.0121141
05.06  0.0106856
06.06  0.0122811
07.06  0.0095395
08.06  0.0128877
09.06  0.0116469
10.06  0.0123263
11.06  0.0117161
12.06  0.0117539

Average Value in Recent Week PPLNS/TH Earnings 0.01173593

Цeнa: 21295.234 RUB(1.67468578฿)  Haличиe: 1196

Spanish version: AntMiner S5 - 342.768 CNY (vs 2390.498 at Chinese version)
Russian version: AntMiner S5 - 21295.234 $ (vs 386$ at English version)

Do you enjoy Spain and hate Russia?    Is it Bitmain's sanctions against Russia? 

Bitmain as always has crazy pricing 

Just follow the internal market on Hashnest and you will see S5 price fluctuate day to day. If bitcoin price increases you will be able to sell your hashing power at a profit or just keep it. As long as bitcoin price stays above $115 S5 should stay on line.

No, it isn't losing value because difficulty is relatively stable right now.
Probably a few months, they'll lose some value and earn less once S7s come online.

So I can sell my S5 Hash? Wouldnt it lose value and become used?

Because I am not familiar with difficulty calculations (Im good with numbers, but new to mining) are there any estimates on how long the S5 is supposed to remain online? or what is the minimum bitcoin price, or how to calculate it?

If you have no problem tying up one btc for 120 days you could buy one PACMiC v2 and use one btc to buy S5 hash on the market at Hashnest to spread the risk/benefit. If you do not like the idea of not being able to exit your position at will you can always just buy S5 hash. Why S5 instead of S4? If bitcoin price drops S5 will stay online longer than S4, same as PACMiC v2.

Oh. Thank you for your data. As I edited the post, I figured the previous amount is ridiculously small (u can make more than 1000 satoshi at faucets ), I think I found my error and based on your five day profit, my calculated average daily profit seems right at  0.00055370 BTC/day for a PACMiC contract  

Is there a re-invest feature of the PACMiC? If so how does it work? Maybe I can calculate the compound interest.

And you are right about the drop of price. I used it as a worst case scenario but it is an impossible scenario.

So I will calculate another less impossible worst case scenario. That would be if thee price of BTC drops half the rate of what it dropped the past 286 days. (More likely worst case scenario):

worst case estimated drop = 0.5 * .54365079 = 0.271825395

so 1.271825395 * 1.1465435514 = 1.45820321 BTC

and proportionally our break even days would also be 286.06 days * 1.271825395 = 363.8 days

and the daily profits would actually be worth: (1 - 0.271825395) * 0.00427719 BTC = 0.00311454 BTC
0.00311454 BTC * $230 = $0.98/day
ROE after break even would be 0.98/386 = 0.002548 = 0.25 % daily revenue assuming a worst case of 27% currency depreciation and risk of becoming unprofitable before...

The BEST Case sceario would be if price of BTC remains the same

Then the daily revenue would be 1.44/386 = 0.003730570 = 0.0037% daily revenue after 286 days break even point

So the question is which to buy

A) Something that pays itself in 93 days while giving you a 0.055% profit daily immediately and expires after 93? (low risk)

OR

B) Something that gives you 0.37% to 0.25% daily once it pays itself after 286 to 363 days of activation? (Medium Risk)

Damn it I dont know which to choose. Please Vote: A or B?

Thanks

You have a ton of information and math in that post, unfortunately I can't take the time to read and understand the whole thing right now, but a cursory glance suggests that your evaluation of the S5 is correct, but I don't think your profit of the PACMiC seems right.  For example...
One of my PACMIC's V2 is showing after 5.1 days a profit of .00199889, which is already more than your math worked out to be, so you must have an error in there somewhere.

I also don't think we can accept the premise that the bitcoin price will nearly half in the next 100 days.  If that was the case, instead of buying anything, just sell your bitcoin now and take your cash.  Price has been very stable for the last couple of months, staying in the 220 to 240 range very consistently.  Personally, I believe we have seen the bottom, of course this is up for dispute, but I wouldn't take the bitcoin price into my calculations, anyway, we are concerned with getting more bitcoin than we previously had, not more USD

Difficulty increases are based on the number of blocks found in a period of time.  This is usually caused by more or less people mining on the network.  The network self corrects to try and always release 2016 blocks every 14 days, which would be 1 block every ten minutes.  When blocks start getting found faster or slower than that, then difficulty retargets happen, which make it harder or easier for blocks to be found.

so at current difficulty, the revenues that go toward the 1 1btc cost of the 1000 GH/s contract with the $0.098 kwh cost, according to coiwarst profitability calc the daily revenue would be 0.01056774 btc that goes toward the 1 btc investment and it would ideally break even in 93 days, if difficulty remains the same

therefore the daily discount rate of investment would be 0.01056774. every month 10.57% is paid towards balance
so the 0.0003888 every month gets decreased by the rate of (10.57%) for 93 day.
since we know the bonus will be paid for 93 [EDIT: days], we can start from the 93rd day and go backwards.
Effectively the the bonuses would be the sum of 0.000388 * (1+ 0.01056774) from day 0 to 93. Therefore using the future value formula:

Future bonuses = 0.000388 * (1+ 0.01056774)^93 = 0.00103137 btc that's 0.103% profit on the
the average daily profit would be 0.00103137 / 93 days = 0.00001109
[EDIT: I must have a mistake here... u can get this amount from faucets ]

[EDIT: OK, the above is wrong in different levels. It should have been 0.000388 * (1+ (1 - 0.01056774)/93)^93 since the bonus keeps getting decreased by .010, but its still wrong because this is assuming a block is found every day. If the pool is supposed to be 5TH then according to coinwars a block is generated every 0.2 days which is 5 times a day.
The correct equation should be: 0.000388 * (1 + 0.01056774)^(5*93) = 0.05149402 for all 93 days. Thats a total of 5.15% in the 93 day contract. Makes more sense.
so the average daily profit is 0.05149402 / 93 days = 0.00055370 BTC/day]

Now the S5 burns 0.51/GH according to hashnet, its 1155 GH are 589.05W and hashnet charges $0.0976/kWh.

Inputting this data on coinwars calculator, with the same exchange rate and difficulty,
the profit per day is $1.44 or 0.00427719 BTC with the current USD 233.7979 exchange rate. so in 93 days the profit from revenues should be 0.39777867 BTC.
It would break even is 268.06 days to generate our invested 1.1465435514, and start generating profit of 0.00427719 daily

all this is however assuming that difficulty and exchange rate doesn't change over time...

If the drop of btc price continues to drop at the same rate it has been, we could take an educated guess on how much is the btc gonna be worth after 286 days:

if todays price is $230/btc according to coinbase, 286 days ago on August 30th, 2014, coinbase price was $504/btc

Thats percentage drop of (504-230)/504 = 0.54365079. Note that the curve is kinda stabilizig, so assuming a continuous straight line drop is being extreme and over-safe (worst case scenario).

so the worst case scenario would be that our break even btcs would need to increase by 0.54365079 more than 1.1465435514

so 1.54365079 * 1.1465435514 = 1.76986286 BTC

and proportionally our break even days would also be 286.06 days * 1.54365079 = 441.58 days

and the daily profits would actually be worth less by (1 - 0.54365079) * 0.00427719 BTC = 0.00195189 BTC

Thats is still much more than the PACMiC V2, but there would but if I am not mistaken, there would be the risk of never breaking even, if the device becomes unprofitable before the 442.58 day worst case scenario...

Unfortunately I still consider myself a newbie and am still not sure how and why the difficulty changes...

Can anyone verify the math? And can anyone make anything out of my results?

Think of it as a bond.   You own nothing physical, but will get returns every time a block is found.

You pay 1 btc to Hashnest.  In return, they promise to pay you 1 btc back and interest for borrowing your money.  Overtime, you will slowly start earning your 1 btc of principal back, and interest for the time that you let them borrow your money.  That is the easy way to understand it, now a bit more technical is how it is done...

The loan is paid back based on 1 TH/s of mining power.  When the pool finds a block, you get a reward as if you had 1 TH/s of mining power pointed at the pool, with no electricity or admin fees taken out.  So lets for the sake of this example say that a block is found and 1 TH/s of mining power gives you .00005 btc.  The .00005 btc is paid to you and your principal is reduced by that amount.  Now they only owe you .99995 btc back. This goes on every time a block is found until you have your 1 btc back.

There is also profit built into that though.  So, with the first block found, if it takes 1000 seconds to find that block, your profit would be .00004500 (1000 seconds X 4.5 satoshis X 1 btc).  So instead of of the .00005 btc going towards principal, you subtract out your profit portion, and the remaining goes towards your principal.  The next block also takes 1000 seconds, but your profit will be lower because your principal is lower (1000 seconds X 4.5 satoshis X remaining principal balance).

I'm not native english, don’t know if this is the reason, but I really have a hard time understanding PACMiC V2.

I get that it has less risk than a normal mining rig. And that I should get profit in less time.

But what is the capital?

How much profit or close value can we get?

How long will it be mining for us?

Anyone care try and explain to this sorry newbie?

Thanks

You almost got the PACMiC revenue right, you also have to take it times the remaining principal.  So towards the end of the contract, you are earning very little profit.

Thanks. after comparing, it seems to me, that pacmic has less risk guaranteed roi, while something like s5 is higher risk as it depends on the difficulty and risks becoming unprofitable. right?

Unless if I misunderstand the pacmic revenues:
0.0000000045 *60 * 60 *24 = 0.0003888 the first day

You can either by a PACMiC V2 or hash from an S2, S3, UMISOO, S4, or S5 which can be found by clicking Hash, then choosing the hash from the version of miner you want.  So if you want to buy 1000 GH/s of S5, go to Hash, click S5, go to market and put in a buy order for 1000 GH/S.

Where can I find an S5 contract? I only see the PACMiC V2?

Has anyone purchase an S5 from the shop lately?  I'm curious if the 72 hour waiting period is precise, or if they "provision" that GH sooner on occasion.  Thanks in advance! 

I bought a 10.00 contract from Genesis a very long time ago, still pays to date but think I only have about 4-6.00 usd back on it lol.  Was a test.

Yes, I did rough numbers many times and they just don't compare in value to hashnest at the moment.  It is, however, one of the very few other cloud services I believe actually mine and are not a ponzi.

Now, Genesis did just recently partner with spoondoolies ( equipment manufacturer ) that actually delivered units and people liked.   So I am hoping soon spoondoolies is able to offer genesis a better rates and we get an offering from  genesis that makes sense.   I keep checking them out.

KNC I think is all in house now that they used their customers to build/finance their company and tossed them aside like garbage.   Even if KNC came out with a very good cloud offering to the public I would never support them going forward and I wasn't even one of the people burned by them.

A lot of the other big names have gone under, turned out to be scams or had no business experience and failed.  I am not really sure how bitfury works if they provide chips to all these other companies or if they will come out with their own equipment.