Topic: HASHNEST Discussion and Support Thread - page 185. (Read 660097 times)

If bitcoin price is stable PACMiC v2 may be the better investment. If bitcoin price continues to rise you would have been better off buying S5 hash on the Bitmain market.

Came accross this today:

https://sites.google.com/site/freebitcoinsforall/

Unlike our recent calculations in this thread, it makes PacMic v2 seem like the better value? It's of course not calculating the terminal value of the S5, but still seems different from some of the calculations I've seen here.

hi scarneiro ,

sorry for that, i can't found any ticket of you in support system . would you please post a ticket again?

i will follow up your ticket. if you want to disable your google auth, you must  take photo with your certificate

Yeah I was just debating yesterday if I should buy some more or not.

Would have thought they would drop the price more tho, to sell out and make room for new miners in the coming months.

Not quite sure why the price has gone up, and gone up so drastically.

i tried to look at this over and i am not getting the same numbers, how did you get this numbers if i may ask. when i did it i came to a amount that was 29% percent lower than what you had posted. Obiously i want your math to be correct lol but just asking  

so at current difficulty, the revenues that go toward the 1 1btc cost of the 1000 GH/s contract with the $0.098 kwh cost, according to coiwarst profitability calc the daily revenue would be 0.01056774 btc that goes toward the 1 btc investment and it would ideally break even in 93 days, if difficulty remains the same

therefore the daily discount rate of investment would be 0.01056774. every month 10.57% is paid towards balance
so the 0.0003888 every month gets decreased by the rate of (10.57%) for 93 day.
since we know the bonus will be paid for 93 [EDIT: days], we can start from the 93rd day and go backwards.
Effectively the the bonuses would be the sum of 0.000388 * (1+ 0.01056774) from day 0 to 93. Therefore using the future value formula:

Future bonuses = 0.000388 * (1+ 0.01056774)^93 = 0.00103137 btc that's 0.103% profit on the
the average daily profit would be 0.00103137 / 93 days = 0.00001109
[EDIT: I must have a mistake here... u can get this amount from faucets ]

[EDIT: OK, the above is wrong in different levels. It should have been 0.000388 * (1+ (1 - 0.01056774)/93)^93 since the bonus keeps getting decreased by .010, but its still wrong because this is assuming a block is found every day. If the pool is supposed to be 5TH then according to coinwars a block is generated every 0.2 days which is 5 times a day.
The correct equation should be: 0.000388 * (1 + 0.01056774)^(5*93) = 0.05149402 for all 93 days. Thats a total of 5.15% in the 93 day contract. Makes more sense.
so the average daily profit is 0.05149402 / 93 days = 0.00055370 BTC/day]

Now the S5 burns 0.51/GH according to hashnet, its 1155 GH are 589.05W and hashnet charges $0.0976/kWh.

Inputting this data on coinwars calculator, with the same exchange rate and difficulty,
the profit per day is $1.44 or 0.00427719 BTC with the current USD 233.7979 exchange rate. so in 93 days the profit from revenues should be 0.39777867 BTC.
It would break even is 268.06 days to generate our invested 1.1465435514, and start generating profit of 0.00427719 daily

all this is however assuming that difficulty and exchange rate doesn't change over time...

If the drop of btc price continues to drop at the same rate it has been, we could take an educated guess on how much is the btc gonna be worth after 286 days:

if todays price is $230/btc according to coinbase, 286 days ago on August 30th, 2014, coinbase price was $504/btc

Thats percentage drop of (504-230)/504 = 0.54365079. Note that the curve is kinda stabilizig, so assuming a continuous straight line drop is being extreme and over-safe (worst case scenario).

so the worst case scenario would be that our break even btcs would need to increase by 0.54365079 more than 1.1465435514

so 1.54365079 * 1.1465435514 = 1.76986286 BTC

and proportionally our break even days would also be 286.06 days * 1.54365079 = 441.58 days

and the daily profits would actually be worth less by (1 - 0.54365079) * 0.00427719 BTC = 0.00195189 BTC

Thats is still much more than the PACMiC V2, but there would but if I am not mistaken, there would be the risk of never breaking even, if the device becomes unprofitable before the 442.58 day worst case scenario...

Unfortunately I still consider myself a newbie and am still not sure how and why the difficulty changes...

Can anyone verify the math? And can anyone make anything out of my results?

Oh. Thank you for your data. As I edited the post, I figured the previous amount is ridiculously small (u can make more than 1000 satoshi at faucets ), I think I found my error and based on your five day profit, my calculated average daily profit seems right at  0.00055370 BTC/day for a PACMiC contract  

Is there a re-invest feature of the PACMiC? If so how does it work? Maybe I can calculate the compound interest.

And you are right about the drop of price. I used it as a worst case scenario but it is an impossible scenario.

So I will calculate another less impossible worst case scenario. That would be if thee price of BTC drops half the rate of what it dropped the past 286 days. (More likely worst case scenario):

worst case estimated drop = 0.5 * .54365079 = 0.271825395

so 1.271825395 * 1.1465435514 = 1.45820321 BTC

and proportionally our break even days would also be 286.06 days * 1.271825395 = 363.8 days

and the daily profits would actually be worth: (1 - 0.271825395) * 0.00427719 BTC = 0.00311454 BTC
0.00311454 BTC * $230 = $0.98/day
ROE after break even would be 0.98/386 = 0.002548 = 0.25 % daily revenue assuming a worst case of 27% currency depreciation and risk of becoming unprofitable before...

The BEST Case sceario would be if price of BTC remains the same

Then the daily revenue would be 1.44/386 = 0.003730570 = 0.0037% daily revenue after 286 days break even point

So the question is which to buy

A) Something that pays itself in 93 days while giving you a 0.055% profit daily immediately and expires after 93? (low risk)

OR

B) Something that gives you 0.37% to 0.25% daily once it pays itself after 286 to 363 days of activation? (Medium Risk)

Damn it I dont know which to choose. Please Vote: A or B?

Thanks

Oh. Thank you for your data. As I edited the post, I figured the previous amount is ridiculously small (u can make more than 1000 satoshi at faucets ), I think I found my error and based on your five day profit, my calculated average daily profit seems right at  0.00055370 BTC/day for a PACMiC contract  

Is there a re-invest feature of the PACMiC? If so how does it work? Maybe I can calculate the compound interest.

And you are right about the drop of price. I used it as a worst case scenario but it is an impossible scenario.

So I will calculate another less impossible worst case scenario. That would be if thee price of BTC drops half the rate of what it dropped the past 286 days. (More likely worst case scenario):

worst case estimated drop = 0.5 * .54365079 = 0.271825395

so 1.271825395 * 1.1465435514 = 1.45820321 BTC

and proportionally our break even days would also be 286.06 days * 1.271825395 = 363.8 days

and the daily profits would actually be worth: (1 - 0.271825395) * 0.00427719 BTC = 0.00311454 BTC
0.00311454 BTC * $230 = $0.98/day
ROE after break even would be 0.98/386 = 0.002548 = 0.25 % daily revenue assuming a worst case of 27% currency depreciation and risk of becoming unprofitable before...

The BEST Case sceario would be if price of BTC remains the same

Then the daily revenue would be 1.44/386 = 0.003730570 = 0.0037% daily revenue after 286 days break even point

So the question is which to buy

A) Something that pays itself in 93 days while giving you a 0.055% profit daily immediately and expires after 93? (low risk)

OR

B) Something that gives you 0.37% to 0.25% daily once it pays itself after 286 to 363 days of activation? (Medium Risk)

Damn it I dont know which to choose. Please Vote: A or B?

Thanks

Yeah I was just debating yesterday if I should buy some more or not.

Would have thought they would drop the price more tho, to sell out and make room for new miners in the coming months.

Not quite sure why the price has gone up, and gone up so drastically.

Just noticed the price is down $2 more for the S5 miner on Hashnest:

AntminerS5
Price: 382.0 USD

Yes PACMiC is definitely the safer investment and as I calculated earlier, assuming there is no increase in difficulty, the total profit after 93 days would be 0.05149402 BTC and of course you will get the money you spent for the 1000 GH back. Hope that helps

What's your take on getting into Hashnest (at least to try out). Is it worth waiting for the new S7 units in one month? From one perspective, there is always going to be newer units on the horizon. From the other, I wonder how it would impact prices on the current ones. For example, if it's going to make the S5 2x cheaper, then it's probably worth waiting the 3-4 weeks.

Just running through the math, at the current rates, the S5 is $384 for 1150GH/s of hashing power. Assuming BTC's value stays flat:

At a 3% difficulty increase per month, you're looking at a $458 revenue, which is a $75 profit (20% annualized) in the first year.
At a 5% difficulty increase per month, you're looking at a $29 profit (7.5% annualized) in the first year.
At a 10% difficulty increase per month, you'd lose money in the first year.

Do those estimates seem correct? Based on your earnings from 20015-06-08, you're making slightly above these estimates by the way - maybe just a lucky day.

That's the v2 pacmic numbers?

Is there a way to get daily returns for different options?

Lets say I want 10x Ant S5's what would my daily/weekly/monthly returns be?
Or lets say I want to mess around and get 15 or 20 depending on returns.

I know the site http://nextdifficulty.com/ but just want somewhere I can input 10 or 20 S5's for the current price of 1.57btc per and 47.81% maintenance?

Sorry this might be a dorf question, but my brain is melted today.

Maybe I'm not seeing this elsewhere, but do we have some definitive data on the S7?  Is the S6 also not a thing?

Cheers.