Hashrate is dropping | Bitcointalksearch.org

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Quote from: pooya87 on June 24, 2020, 12:17:24 AM

this can not be because of price because in this time frame the price has been more or less stable inside $9k range with the average around $9500. so there is no increased incentive for more miners yet.

Bitmain shipped their gear, there a lot of people confirming arrivals
S9s have 0.09j/Gh S19s are at 0.03j/Gh, basically, you could drop 10EH from the chain with old gear and replace it with 30EH at same power cost.
The hashrate might go up by 20EH but the revenue/costs/profits will stay the same.

Quote from: crwth on June 24, 2020, 02:44:42 AM

they could have changed into another coin and mine more than what they could if it is compared to bitcoin right now. At the end of the day, it is getting a profit is the priority over all.

BCH and BSV have around 3-4% of the Bitcoin hashrate, just 1% of the miners switching to them would make those coins unprofitable for anyone.
Rewards per day:
BSV ($167,069.88 USD)
BCH ($223,610.88 USD)
drumrolls..
BTC ($10,283,158.18 USD)

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Quote from: Bttzed03 on June 24, 2020, 02:38:17 AM

@pooya87 What does the chart tells us? It looks like some miners only took a 'little break' and came back after difficulty was adjusted. Are we going to expect another adjustment soon?

i shared it here to see what others think.
the charts shows us that hashrate didn't really change in the long term even with stable price. miners didn't actually leave or even if some did they were replaced by other miners right away since we are now pretty much the same place as a month ago.
maybe this was a panic move or it is possible that it was an attempt to manipulate difficulty although i don't think the results were significant enough to justify this theory.

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Maybe it is the current situation that we are in now or some personal issues around themselves. But thinking about their investments towards the mining gears that they have, they could have changed into another coin and mine more than what they could if it is compared to bitcoin right now. At the end of the day, it is getting a profit is the priority over all.

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@pooya87 What does the chart tells us? It looks like some miners only took a 'little break' and came back after difficulty was adjusted. Are we going to expect another adjustment soon?

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now that some time has passed the hashrate and difficulty charts look very interesting in my opinion. when this topic was started the has hashrate had a little drop which continued dropping until after the difficulty adjustment (difficulty went down due to the reduced hashrate) but then interestingly enough it started going back up with the same speed as it went down and right now it is more or less the same hashrate as before the OP meaning around 110 EH/s.

this can not be because of price because in this time frame the price has been more or less stable inside $9k range with the average around $9500. so there is no increased incentive for more miners yet.

the two yellow circles are the difficulty adjustment dates when the difficulty went down on both occasions

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But it's not as low as 3 months or a year ago. So keep the positivity, price isn't declining also, nothing to worry as of now though.

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Quote from: squatter on May 17, 2020, 03:52:24 AM

~

We're talking about two different things. I was referring to the difficulty adjustment in 2.5 days. If the adjustment happened today, it would be -1.21%. Indeed, it looks like the difficulty drop may be larger than the 1-2% I expected. 10% would be a stretch, though.

Yeah, got it. Wink

But, it's not going to be 1-2, it's going to be either 4-5% if there is no price increase.
-4.2% on https://diff.cryptothis.com/
-5 on https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/
100 blocks in the last 24h, out of 144 expected.

Quote from: Artemis3 on May 16, 2020, 11:14:45 AM

NO. The fees and the hash rate are unrelated. Fees go up and down according to network traffic, this is separate to the network hashrate.

And when the hash rate drops, so do the blocks mined, so does the capacity of the chain, and there you have it, high fees.
They might not be related but one can cause the other to increase.

As I was saying, last 24h the network worked at almost 2/3 of the capacity.
Thank god that is weekend and the retarget will probably happen on Tuesday evening.

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Due to Bitcoin Halving Miner got effect badly but for Bitcoin and Traders like me its important most of the miners are not Hodlers (They sell bitcoins when they receive rewards)
So it's Bad for some guys and also good for some Guys
But I think new miners will not enter now in bitcoin they will try different Coins to mine

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Quote from: stompix on May 15, 2020, 03:05:27 AM

Quote from: squatter on May 14, 2020, 11:50:47 PM

The hash rate is declining but the drop has been fairly modest. Difficulty is still technically slated to increase in 4 days, although it will probably become a modest (1-2%) decrease by then. It may take 2 difficulty adjustments for the fee market to normalize, but I see no cause for concern.

I wouldn't call 109 blocks in 24 hours modest.
https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/blocks?q=time(2020-05-13%2007:25:23..2020-05-14%2007:25:23)
Even with the price increase, we're still doing
Blocks:131
Avg. time between blocks: 659.54 s.

10% (now), that's not modest.

We're talking about two different things. I was referring to the difficulty adjustment in 2.5 days. If the adjustment happened today, it would be -1.21%. Indeed, it looks like the difficulty drop may be larger than the 1-2% I expected. 10% would be a stretch, though.

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Quote from: Little Mouse on May 14, 2020, 10:51:08 PM

After halving, we can say some miners have left. What do you think? More miners will leave too? And what if hashrate drop more?

Miners stop mining because costs and prices do not provide benefits. If the price of BTC does not rise, everything will go bankrupt. If the hasrate goes down, it means that many miners are leaving, then I think only the big miners can survive if the price doesn't go up soon, closing the mining costs, But we know that miners play an important role in controlling prices in addition to large fund owners.

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Quote from: Little Mouse on May 14, 2020, 10:51:08 PM

As you can see above, hashrate is decreasing after the halving as expected. Due to that, the fee has increased and according to bitcoinfees, the recommded fee is 150 sat / per byte and there are a lot of unconfirmed transaction.

I don't believe there is a direct relationship between the decrease in hashrates and the increase in fees!
Fees increase when the network become clogged by unconfirmed transactions which is, as I said, not related in any way to the hashrates drop.
Miners can not force users to pay higher fees, all they can do is to prioritize transactions which have higher fee-rates.

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After halving, we can say some miners have left. What do you think? More miners will leave too? And what if hashrate drop more?

Hard to say. It depends on how much profitable mining Bitcoin will become compared to mining other coins.

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Before now it has been predicted that a lot of miners will leave bitcoin but it will only reduce the supply level of bitcoin market while demand will rise and if this situation really happens then will see a surge in price of the bitcoin market. However, this is just a prediction though.

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Quote from: Yamifoud on May 16, 2020, 11:29:51 AM

https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-hashrate-second-largest-difficulty-drop/

Hashrate down 45% according to that article and the second-largest drop since 2011. This will be probably signifies something and I think this is also a reason why withdrawal fees are so high. This dropping will be considered as a big factor that could affect the miner's revenue.
If there is another way to hold miners leaving their position, I think this could be helpful.

Yeah, no wonder why my pocket feels so heavy with the transaction fees I got too excited to withdraw some of my funds without calculating the fees, embarrassing. This is a common event after the halving though hash rate is always declining because some miners are disconnecting to mining bitcoin while others are connecting to other alternative coin mining. You can also see the hash rates of some other coins that is increasing, possibly due to switching of some miners.

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https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-hashrate-second-largest-difficulty-drop/

Hashrate down 45% according to that article and the second-largest drop since 2011. This will be probably signifies something and I think this is also a reason why withdrawal fees are so high. This dropping will be considered as a big factor that could affect the miner's revenue.
If there is another way to hold miners leaving their position, I think this could be helpful.

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Quote from: Little Mouse on May 14, 2020, 10:51:08 PM

As you can see above, hashrate is decreasing after the halving as expected. Due to that, the fee has increased and according to bitcoinfees, the recommded fee is 150 sat / per byte and there are a lot of unconfirmed transaction.
After halving, we can say some miners have left. What do you think? More miners will leave too? And what if hashrate drop more?

NO. The fees and the hashrate are unrelated. Fees go up and down according to network traffic, this is separate to the network hashrate.

Of course some miners would leave. Moments before the halving was 140 EH/s or so, and its like 85 EH/s currently. In order to not change, bitcoin's price would had to double, which didn't, as it was my expectation. It fell somewhere between 7.5k and 15k (with 15k being double).

Anyway the hashrate only matters to miners, since it affects difficulty. As for the fees, remember that "recommended" is not "required". You can always force your wallet to use 1 Sat/B, it'll just take a bit longer than usual (one day rather than one hour, for example). Due to the unfortunate flood of wallets that attempt to guess a "recommended fee", a feedback effect occurs and its simple to manipulate those fool wallets into crazy fees (since they all start competing with each other after some whale or exchange moves some funds to their cold wallet or such).

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According to this Halving effect of Bitcoin, miners have lost 61% of their income, and there is talk of the death spiral that translates into higher transaction fees, representing 17% of the miners' income, which is The highest compared to 2018, the good thing is that for some experts, the fall of Hashrate may represent a bullish signal for Bitcoin.

This information appears in: https://cointelegraph.com/news/post-halving-reality-17-of-miner-revenue-is-coming-from-fees

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Quote from: Little Mouse on May 14, 2020, 10:51:08 PM

As you can see above, hashrate is decreasing after the halving as expected. Due to that, the fee has increased and according to bitcoinfees, the recommded fee is 150 sat / per byte and there are a lot of unconfirmed transaction.
After halving, we can say some miners have left. What do you think? More miners will leave too? And what if hashrate drop more?

That is completely normal. When Halving occurs, the difficulty of mining will increase while the current price is still not rising. This has caused small miners to give up because of the doubling of the difficulty level, but the profit has not increased.
However, it is also time for new mining companies with more modern machines to participate in Bitcoin mining. Then the Hashrate will increase again

Will my analysis satisfy you?

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Quote from: pooya87 on May 15, 2020, 12:48:33 AM

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after the halving as expected.

wrong, you can not expect what will happen to the hashrate just because of halving.

I believe it's a natural assumption that some miners will leave after halving, finding mining unprofitable, and the hashrate would drop. Antonopoulos make this assumption prior to halving as a possibility. So while we can't know what will happen before it does, I think we can expect some things to happen. I do agree that it's too early to jump to conclusions about what's going on right now, as it's been only days since halving. Interpreting a limited amount of data and treating it as enough evidence is always a bad thing. More info can show a completely different pattern.

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Quote from: pooya87 on May 15, 2020, 11:16:58 PM

all true but my point is that since the period you are looking at is very tiny you can not make an accurate conclusion. there is a very high chance of that conclusion having a very large error.
when you look at the past 6 months hashrate chart you can see pretty much similar movements with a tiny overall rise. https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-hashrate.html#6m so why is this particular "fluctuation" in the number that these sites report (which is not accurate) any different? just because it was after halving?

The last 6 months are irrelevant in this case because the halving happened a week ago not 3 months, it's already half of a retarget period and I wouldn't call it tiny period because if you call half a period like that we can extend this to two retargeting as we need 10 to make sure, right?

So, let's forget about sites, and speak with block times, the blockchain doesn't lie, no?

The first block of this epoch:
628992 Mined on 2020-05-05 04:00
https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/block/628992

The halving block:
630000 Mined on 2020-05-11 19:23
https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/block/630000

The last block mined:
630576 Mined on 2020-05-16 09:11
https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/block/630576

So, before the halving we were doing for 6 days:
1008 blocks in 6 days, 15 hours, 23 minutes 9383 minutes 9.3 mins/b

After:
576 blocks 4 days, 13 hours, 48 minutes 6588 11.43mins/b

Just before the halving the difficulty estimator was:

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... between +4.3774% and +6.0926%

now is

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between -1.8704% and -1.7868%

Plus, the price at the start of the period was 500$ lower than what we have now, so a plus 5% in the other direction Grin

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