Period 37, Day 11 Report - May 15, 2015
Balance Post Divs: BTC 88.85688177
Total Units: 121679
NAV/U: BTC 0.00073025
Topic: [Havelock] Bitcoin Difficulty Derivative (BDD) - page 31. (Read 290294 times)
Period 37, Day 10 Report - May 14, 2015
Balance Post Divs: BTC 95.01827065
Total Units: 121351
NAV/U: BTC 0.00078300
Balance Post Divs: BTC 95.01827065
Total Units: 121351
NAV/U: BTC 0.00078300
Period 37, Day 9 Report - May 13, 2015
Balance Post Divs: BTC 101.32960396
Total Units: 121241
NAV/U: BTC 0.00083577
Balance Post Divs: BTC 101.32960396
Total Units: 121241
NAV/U: BTC 0.00083577
Period 37, Day 8 Report - May 12, 2015
Balance Post Divs: BTC 106.55364857
Total Units: 119926
NAV/U: BTC 0.00088849
Balance Post Divs: BTC 106.55364857
Total Units: 119926
NAV/U: BTC 0.00088849
Period 37, Day 7 Report - May 11, 2015
Balance Post Divs: BTC 111.28474442
Total Units: 118241
NAV/U: BTC 0.00094116
Balance Post Divs: BTC 111.28474442
Total Units: 118241
NAV/U: BTC 0.00094116
Period 37, Day 6 Report - May 10, 2015
Balance Post Divs: BTC 117.07192554
Total Units: 117788
NAV/U: BTC 0.00099392
Balance Post Divs: BTC 117.07192554
Total Units: 117788
NAV/U: BTC 0.00099392
Period 37, Day 5 Report - May 9, 2015
Balance Post Divs: BTC 123.20153336
Total Units: 117461
NAV/U: BTC 0.00104887
Balance Post Divs: BTC 123.20153336
Total Units: 117461
NAV/U: BTC 0.00104887
Period 37, Day 4 Report - May 8, 2015
Balance Post Divs: BTC 129.41261513
Total Units: 117701
NAV/U: BTC 0.00109950
Balance Post Divs: BTC 129.41261513
Total Units: 117701
NAV/U: BTC 0.00109950
Period 37, Day 3 Report - May 7, 2015
Balance Post Divs: BTC 135.54611209
Total Units: 117634
NAV/U: BTC 0.00115226
Balance Post Divs: BTC 135.54611209
Total Units: 117634
NAV/U: BTC 0.00115226
Period 37, Day 2 Report - May 6, 2015
Balance Post Divs: BTC 141.43878513
Total Units: 117374
NAV/U: BTC 0.00120502
Balance Post Divs: BTC 141.43878513
Total Units: 117374
NAV/U: BTC 0.00120502
Period 37, Day 1 Report - May 5, 2015
Balance Post Divs: BTC 147.66153558
Total Units: 117402
NAV/U: BTC 0.00125774
Balance Post Divs: BTC 147.66153558
Total Units: 117402
NAV/U: BTC 0.00125774
Period 37, Day 0 Report - May 4, 2015
Balance Post Divs: BTC 154.16242493
Total Units: 117640
NAV/U: BTC 0.00131045
Balance Post Divs: BTC 154.16242493
Total Units: 117640
NAV/U: BTC 0.00131045
As mentioned in the update yesterday, there are 25.8 Days left of MINE dividends at the current dividend rate.
Period 36 End Report - May 4, 2015
Previous Units 64984
EXCH Sold 55671
Less Buybacks 3015
New Total Units 117640
Previous Balance 136.222665
Price per EXCH Variable
Gross Sales of EXCH 95.31549903
Less Fees 0.35576681
Less Dividends 64.87724343
Less Buybacks 4.02583905
Less Mgmt Fee 1.90902701
Net Balance 160.37028773
End of Period NAV/U 0.00136322
New Difficulty 47,643,398,018
New Daily Dividend 0.00005277
New Reserve per Unit 0.01055400
New Reserve Less NAV/U = 0.01055400 - 0.00136322= -0.00919078
SELL Dividend None (Because NAV/U is less than 200 Days of Dividends)
Days of Dividends On Hand ~25.83
You'll notice that I calculate the new Dividend to eight digits and multiply that times 200 Days to get the new Reserve. Those of you that did your own calculations may come up with a slightly different number if you chose not to round or to round elsewhere.
Period 36 End Report - May 4, 2015
Previous Units 64984
EXCH Sold 55671
Less Buybacks 3015
New Total Units 117640
Previous Balance 136.222665
Price per EXCH Variable
Gross Sales of EXCH 95.31549903
Less Fees 0.35576681
Less Dividends 64.87724343
Less Buybacks 4.02583905
Less Mgmt Fee 1.90902701
Net Balance 160.37028773
End of Period NAV/U 0.00136322
New Difficulty 47,643,398,018
New Daily Dividend 0.00005277
New Reserve per Unit 0.01055400
New Reserve Less NAV/U = 0.01055400 - 0.00136322= -0.00919078
SELL Dividend None (Because NAV/U is less than 200 Days of Dividends)
Days of Dividends On Hand ~25.83
You'll notice that I calculate the new Dividend to eight digits and multiply that times 200 Days to get the new Reserve. Those of you that did your own calculations may come up with a slightly different number if you chose not to round or to round elsewhere.
This will go out to all holder of MINE/SELL on Havelock, but I wanted to post it here as well. Just a short description of the End-Game, which is coming up within about 3-4 weeks.
To all holders of B.MINE and B.SELL:
Just a reminder from your friendly Fund Manager, twentyseventy, regarding BDD’s End-Game Scenario:
As of tomorrow, May 4, 2015, there will be approximately 25 Days of MINE Dividends remaining at the current level of dividends. The actual amount will depend on the difficulty change later today, the next difficulty change after that, and the amount of EXCH sold (and MINE/SELL pairs bought back, if any).
Everything in this notice is public knowledge, available via either the information in the Bitcointalk thread OP or via some basic math. I’m simply trying to ensure that those that hold MINE and SELL understand the ramifications of the end of this BDD Round before the End-Game later this month.
BDD is designed to let people speculate on the difficulty of the Bitcoin network. Those that believe that it will continue to increase at a significant clip should hold SELL, and those that believe that difficulty will not increase as rapidly should hold MINE.
Payouts to MINE or SELL in the form of dividends are how those who speculate receive the ‘answer’ to whether or not they chose correctly. MINE pays out daily dividends based on the difficulty until all funds are exhausted. SELL receives dividends when the difficulty increases to a point where there are more than 200 days of MINE dividends on hand, per unit. At that point, MINE’s position is relatively secure from a dividend standpoint, so SELL units receive the excess capital above this amount.
Q: What happens after the ~25 Days of Dividends are paid out to MINE?
A: The ‘End Game’ happens – this is described in the OP as the ‘End-Game via Decrease’. Daily dividends are paid out to MINE until there is no more capital for a full dividend; then, a final, partial dividend is paid out to MINE using the remaining funds (less than a full dividend). MINE will then have received all funds and all MINE units are bought back at 0. All SELL units are bought back for 0 as well.
Q: Is there a chance that there could be more MINE Dividend Days left?
A: Yes, but a small one. In order for there to be more dividends paid out, the difficulty would need to increase (increasing the total dividend days, but decreasing the payout). Sales of EXCH and buybacks of MINE/SELL pairs can increase this amount, but only very slightly.
Q: How can I estimate how much I will receive for each of my MINE units?
A: Since it’s extremely probably that the End-Game via Decrease will happen, meaning that MINE receives all funds and SELL receives 0, you can look at the NAV/U posted daily in the bitcointalk thread. The NAV/U is the value of all the assets divided by the number of total units available (Net Asset Value per Unit). You should NOT purchase shares of MINE on the market for a price above this number!
Q: What will happen to my SELL shares?
A: Your SELL shares will be bought back for 0. Because the Difficulty has been decreasing or stagnating, SELL will not receive anything(*) further - this is why the market price of SELL has decreased so rapidly over the past few months. Those that have paid attention have seen that MINE would soon be receiving all remaining payouts and SELL would not receive anything further.
Q: Is there any chance that my SELL shares will pay a dividend at all? (*)
A: (*) There is a non-zero chance that SELL will pay a dividend again, but it is extremely small (less than 1% in my opinion). It would require multiple consecutive high-percentage increases in the difficulty over the next difficulty periods. SELL shares should be practically valued very near, if not at, zero.
I hope I’ve helped answer some questions you may have. Again, this should not have been a surprise to anyone that understands BDD, but I wanted to ensure that there would not be a big shock to anyone when the Round ends in about 25 Days.
I am considering starting a new BDD Round after this one has closed out; I’ll be sure to make an announcement if so.
If you have any questions, drop by the BDD Bitcointalk thread or email me at [email protected]
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/havelock-bitcoin-difficulty-derivative-bdd-430137
Happy speculating,
twentyseventy / 2070
To all holders of B.MINE and B.SELL:
Just a reminder from your friendly Fund Manager, twentyseventy, regarding BDD’s End-Game Scenario:
As of tomorrow, May 4, 2015, there will be approximately 25 Days of MINE Dividends remaining at the current level of dividends. The actual amount will depend on the difficulty change later today, the next difficulty change after that, and the amount of EXCH sold (and MINE/SELL pairs bought back, if any).
Everything in this notice is public knowledge, available via either the information in the Bitcointalk thread OP or via some basic math. I’m simply trying to ensure that those that hold MINE and SELL understand the ramifications of the end of this BDD Round before the End-Game later this month.
BDD is designed to let people speculate on the difficulty of the Bitcoin network. Those that believe that it will continue to increase at a significant clip should hold SELL, and those that believe that difficulty will not increase as rapidly should hold MINE.
Payouts to MINE or SELL in the form of dividends are how those who speculate receive the ‘answer’ to whether or not they chose correctly. MINE pays out daily dividends based on the difficulty until all funds are exhausted. SELL receives dividends when the difficulty increases to a point where there are more than 200 days of MINE dividends on hand, per unit. At that point, MINE’s position is relatively secure from a dividend standpoint, so SELL units receive the excess capital above this amount.
Q: What happens after the ~25 Days of Dividends are paid out to MINE?
A: The ‘End Game’ happens – this is described in the OP as the ‘End-Game via Decrease’. Daily dividends are paid out to MINE until there is no more capital for a full dividend; then, a final, partial dividend is paid out to MINE using the remaining funds (less than a full dividend). MINE will then have received all funds and all MINE units are bought back at 0. All SELL units are bought back for 0 as well.
Q: Is there a chance that there could be more MINE Dividend Days left?
A: Yes, but a small one. In order for there to be more dividends paid out, the difficulty would need to increase (increasing the total dividend days, but decreasing the payout). Sales of EXCH and buybacks of MINE/SELL pairs can increase this amount, but only very slightly.
Q: How can I estimate how much I will receive for each of my MINE units?
A: Since it’s extremely probably that the End-Game via Decrease will happen, meaning that MINE receives all funds and SELL receives 0, you can look at the NAV/U posted daily in the bitcointalk thread. The NAV/U is the value of all the assets divided by the number of total units available (Net Asset Value per Unit). You should NOT purchase shares of MINE on the market for a price above this number!
Q: What will happen to my SELL shares?
A: Your SELL shares will be bought back for 0. Because the Difficulty has been decreasing or stagnating, SELL will not receive anything(*) further - this is why the market price of SELL has decreased so rapidly over the past few months. Those that have paid attention have seen that MINE would soon be receiving all remaining payouts and SELL would not receive anything further.
Q: Is there any chance that my SELL shares will pay a dividend at all? (*)
A: (*) There is a non-zero chance that SELL will pay a dividend again, but it is extremely small (less than 1% in my opinion). It would require multiple consecutive high-percentage increases in the difficulty over the next difficulty periods. SELL shares should be practically valued very near, if not at, zero.
I hope I’ve helped answer some questions you may have. Again, this should not have been a surprise to anyone that understands BDD, but I wanted to ensure that there would not be a big shock to anyone when the Round ends in about 25 Days.
I am considering starting a new BDD Round after this one has closed out; I’ll be sure to make an announcement if so.
If you have any questions, drop by the BDD Bitcointalk thread or email me at [email protected]
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/havelock-bitcoin-difficulty-derivative-bdd-430137
Happy speculating,
twentyseventy / 2070
Period 36, Day 13 Report - May 3, 2015
Balance Post Divs: BTC 164.23452758
Total Units: 120537
NAV/U: BTC 0.0013625238
Balance Post Divs: BTC 164.23452758
Total Units: 120537
NAV/U: BTC 0.0013625238
Period 36, Day 12 Report - May 2, 2015
Balance Post Divs: BTC 165.03003305
Total Units: 116621
NAV/U: BTC 0.00141509
Balance Post Divs: BTC 165.03003305
Total Units: 116621
NAV/U: BTC 0.00141509
Period 36, Day 11Report - May 1, 2015
Balance Post Divs: BTC 166.56968550
Total Units: 113490
NAV/U: BTC 0.00146770
Balance Post Divs: BTC 166.56968550
Total Units: 113490
NAV/U: BTC 0.00146770
Ok thanks for information.
Period 36, Day 10 Report - April 30, 2015
Balance Post Divs: BTC 164.56534026
Total Units: 108256
NAV/U: BTC 0.00152014
You can always calculate the estimated number of dividend days left by dividing the NAV/U by the current dividend level. In today's case .00152014 / .00005281 = ~28.7 Days left of dividends.
The actual number of days left depends on the next 2-3 difficulty changes. I'll be sending out an email at the end of this Period to give a little bit of an overview of how the End-Game will play out (even though it's in the OP, not everyone reads it and I don't want there to be any surprises!)
Balance Post Divs: BTC 164.56534026
Total Units: 108256
NAV/U: BTC 0.00152014
Hi how many day of dividend left ?
We are almost on the end no ?
We are almost on the end no ?
You can always calculate the estimated number of dividend days left by dividing the NAV/U by the current dividend level. In today's case .00152014 / .00005281 = ~28.7 Days left of dividends.
The actual number of days left depends on the next 2-3 difficulty changes. I'll be sending out an email at the end of this Period to give a little bit of an overview of how the End-Game will play out (even though it's in the OP, not everyone reads it and I don't want there to be any surprises!)
Hi how many day of dividend left ?
We are almost on the end no ?
We are almost on the end no ?
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