Topic: [HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - 1,150 TH/S HASH RATE (1GH/S per Unit) - page 172. (Read 565837 times)

They should really add an age requirement for this forum.

You haven't even made sense of the issues I have with your argument, all you have done is highlight your original post in red and demand I pay you. ontop of that your reply about dividends has nothing to do with the valuation process, as the percentage is a result of the valuation and not a product. The only reinvestment value that should be included in the process is the 35% that is reinvested by CryptX each week, but I don't expect you to understand that.

I'm ignoring you as you are clearly here to troll. Either that or you are too stupid to have a valid opinion.


Thanks for your excellent peice of input. My phone autocorrects You're to your for some crazy reason. but thanks, it's always helpful to have someone correct grammar on the Internet.

love it

Good questions!
I asked that at skyfromwell thread more than a month ago. There is a story I got as the answer. Too long to repost, so here is the link:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.5340791

I didn't check there lately to see if there is an answer.

I could tell you you're wrong depending on your definition of "for a while." There has never been a 1 year period where bitcoin did not double in value year to year. We are looking at a price recovery to ~600 around August, ~1k around Nov a ~2200 coin by December 1. Cryptx value is psynergistic w coin price bc as coin price increases, maintenence fees, etc go to 0 bc they are nonbtc denominated.

Lastly, historically the most profitable btc investments have not been miners, they have been technology producers ie ASIC.

This is not some day trader investment, but we are fundamentally not only sound but strong for those who can keep their money in for minimum 3 months, preferably 6 or more.

 
that calculation with electricity and nuclear power plants was from month, month and a half ago, in this thread (I copy/pasted it now). And now same discussion again. Coming in like in waves. And I bought 3 coins at Bitstamp last week (just to be on the sure side  

Edit: link there: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.5400700

Something else these exponential growers aren't considering is the reward halving. At the current rate of growth we will see another halving by early 2016 if not late 2015.
If the price per ghs doesn't plummet far enough and the value of fiat in USD isn't high enough we might see a correction in difficulty and network hashrate when the reward drops to 12.5.
It is also likely that the drop to 12.5 will spur a rise in price relative to supply/demand.

I love exponentials... their hard physical "ceilings" always catch the riders of these rockets unawares... I can envision the moment all of the sun's output has to be plugged to the hashing network.      

Excellent calculations, and I love the comparison to nuclear power plants, it makes an interesting argument as to how we will keep up with the difficulty rises.

But I must say, for the next month or two we will see huge increases in difficulty as

1) a new bubble begins to form and more people invest in bitcoin mining technology
2) the release of third gen chips causes manufacturing costs to plummet
3) increasing numbers of manufactures, including the Chinese, flood the market with cheaper and more efficient hashing equipment

But yes, in the long term, 4 months+, the difficulty can't carry on increasing at the rate it is now

And also, a projection of $8000 by january isn't far fetched, some would even argue undervalued. Remember, bitcoin wasn't even a tenth of what it was a year ago, and that's even with the price fall over the past three months. It all depends on how the US gov decides to regulate

Januar 2015 with 11'700'000 TH. How much electricity is needed to run this? With chips at 28nm technology using ~1J/GH?

Bitcoin has to be at $8000 by then, just to cover electricity cost.(at $0.1 per kwh)

I don't need mining then, I'll go now and buy 1BTC, and I'm good. For life! (with constant 80% increase/month, bitcoin HAS to be over $2'000'000 in 2015, even with new chips 0.3J/GH)  

And power used - around 4'000 GW. What capacity are nuclear plants? 1GW? Ah, just 4'000 nuclear power plants for bitcoin network. No problem.

Oh, no, what wikianswers says - there are only 439 nuclear reactors in the world?

This is my point. You are using false data. This is the last time I will ask you to run the actual figures instead of picking and choosing whatever satisfies your conclusion, you are missing out on so many key factors its pointless even going into them until you fix your data

I'm not trying to be insulting here, but if you actually believe your own projections and are not trying to influence the price, then please quit BTC trading. This is for your sake more than anyone else's.

81 shares at 0,1.

Which part of the data exactly is 'outdated'? As far as i can see the spreadsheet largely relies on 3 numbers:
The network hashrate, which i have fixed.
Petamine's own hashrate. Which i have left untouched.
The energy investment per hashrate. According to the spreadsheet about 12.5% of the mined BTC's are spent on hosting costs. last perioid the percentage of earnings actually spent on hosting costs is about 25%. Changing this would make the prediction worse.

Other outdated factors such as the reinvestment have no real impact on the outcome. Largely due the fact that i start my calculation with twice the hashrate petamine actually owns.

They are flawed because they are outdated. They use projections from months ago and not the accurate data we have accrued since then. This should be obvious.

Please run the current data before making any future projections

Also, anyone who knows anything about bitcoin knows 20% difficulty increases is unrealistically low.

I will post full projections using multiple scenarios and analysis after CryptX's update next Friday.

Until then, I am increasing the bounty to 2 BTC, this should entice most people on this forum to give it a go and think for themselves, something which I am actively trying to promote

anyone of you here know where the heck these Chinese are getting this A1 chip based rminers ? they seem to be shipping from stock, a miner of 1Th/s cost less than $3K just when Bitmine are having huge problems !!!!

what the heck is going on at Bitmine? do anyone know what is really going on ? is it a problem with getting the chip?

at bitmine thread they seem to ignore answering these important questions... so Cryptx do you know anything about this ?

Read again: That is the only change i made to the document.

The share price is 0.0094 since that is the sum of all future, positive, dividends. In about a month or 3 the dividends will turn negative at which point the hardware should just be liquidated.


I'd appreciate any comments on how flawed PetaMine's forecast document is. Because it seems pretty solid to me. And everybody seems to rather insult me than providing actual feedback. The only feedback i have heard so far that was not covered with multiple insults was that it is unrealistic to expect an continued network growth of 20%. Something that turned out to be quite realistic.

You have done nothing apart from draw a big X on a picture of the old projections, And a share price of 0.0094? When? You cant just say you came to a shareprice without posting your projections and methods of valuation. That is insulting to even a child's intelligence. This is the last time I respond to these opinions, I have called them opinions because they lack pretty much any basis. Either that or you are not explaining your reasoning clearly

From reading previous posts you and bcmine, and just you two, have clearly been singled out as trolls and/or bot owners. I look forward to someone else's attempts at valuing this project, and not just a clear attempt to drive down the price

I've already ran the numbers before. If the difficulty trend does not slow down, Petamine is toast. Even when i assume their own hashrate forecast holds (Which they missed by about 50%).

Excuse my pain skills. It's hard to draw anything with a touchpad.

http://imgur.com/P2GrJDW

These calcuations are done with 20% hashrate increment each time. Since the next difficulity increment is schedued at +24%, i have a hard time believing the average increment falls below that 20% in the short term. This leads to a share price of 0.0094 plus whatever their hardware is worth when they start liquidating it. This all assumes petamine has twice the hashrate they actually have.

When i change the network hashrate growth to 10% and the petamine hashrate numbers to what they actually have, the dividends per share is 0.0072. You can arrive at these numbers by copying this document and filling in whatever hashrate numbers you deem acceptable. This document is supplied by petamine itself, so i assume the calculations are correct.


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I am in transit for the next couple of days (relocating to hawaii for a month or two) so I will reply back in more detail on Monday when I have access to my laptop,

But as for now, you argument is seriously flawed, almost beyond actually deserving a response, but I will humour you.

Firstly, you cannot use the price of a cloud mining contract to value a security, doing so discounts many major factors such as, reinvestment, owning the actual hardware, and speculation from future earnings.

As for bitcoin dropping by half this year, you are correct, but this is because we are nearing the end of our forth bubble phase. We are still up over 1000% from this time last year. Please see here for a more detailed view of the bubble phases and where we are due to be heading - http://m.imgur.com/a/5uKLU

You have also discounted any revenue from hardware sales, and any sort of moving average for a decrease in hosting costs and an increase in difficulty.

No offence, but those figures might entice someone who doesn't know what they are doing, but from someone who has spent most of his career as an analyst, your going to have to actually form a proper analysis and not just nit-pick at the numbers that give you the result you want.

And a "drop in a hot-stone"? please don't use metaphors to further your point, they sound fun to kids but any adult knows they are just a distraction from real substance.

I stress, a proper analysis will include projections very similar to the ones cryptX provided at the beginning of the project, you should then use that data to extrapolate a reasonable argument for the share price. Without accurate projections you have no basis.

Keep them coming guys. I will up the bounty to entice more people to try if I keep getting silly answers like the ones provided.

I hope you all have a great weekend, and thank you CryptX, the news that we already have working PCB designs is exactly the update I wanted to hear.

Please slap bitmine next time you see them though.

Thanks.

Yes, "Petamine is two times more expensive as cex.io"

So I sold all my Petamine and am now happy mining at http://cex.io/

Since Bitmine is 4 weeks late with the delivery of Rigs, CryptX should demand/press/whatever on them to put at least 3 or 4 persons on our production line and complete and deliver all our 165 rig units in a week: