Topic: [HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - 1,150 TH/S HASH RATE (1GH/S per Unit) - page 85. (Read 565833 times)

Now go back to december 2013 and use the data that was available at that time to make a similar forecast and see where that lands you.

From the louder words of an older bitcoin veteran: cold storage wallets dont lose no bitcoins. Almost everything else does, especially mining securities.

From the quiet words of young jeezy- scared money don't make no money!

Made some pretty charts for you all. First, the network growth assumption I used. I based it on current 7%/  week growth and assumed it will decelerate by 3% / week virtually grinding to a halt by the end of the year. Pretty optimistic IMO, especially for the next 3-6 months which matter most, but here' goes:



So what happens to your cryptx shares in that scenario with no reinvestments, and assuming constant hosting costs:



After ~42 weeks mining revenue isnt enough anymore to pay for the hosting costs and the sum of all dividends will have peaked at 0.051 BTC. Of course thats ignoring the loan that amounts to a little over 0.01 BTC/share so actual dividends would peak at ~0.04 BTC if your dividends wherent hijacked for reinvestments.

Speaking of which; if this round is not profitable, chances are the next rounds wont be either. In fact given cryptx' electricity costs and the rise  of asic vendor private mines, I strongly suspect future rounds will be even worse rather than better. Either way, reinvesting will stretch the losses over a longer time but you end up with an even deeper pit unless you believe future investments will end up being > 2x as profitable than the current ones.

So, no bet.

Well, i have to say that I've already received more than I put in: 50% in dividends, the rest by trading, with the help of some 'weak hands' there on exchanges, that dumped cheap few times. Free ride now.

CryptX is busy doing deals for petamine (hope good deals, as always  

Edit: deleted my answer, because now I'm not so clear on this.

Are you a simpleton or what? My issue is not with the height of the bet, its that Im not going to bet even a satoshi that cryptx will fare different as activemining or gigaminng, especially not when Im in fact predicting something similar is bound to happen at some point

If i remeber well the sell of old hardware will repay the initial 500TH buyed to replace himself, so basically if i have understood well, the first 500TH were paying themself by the selling of the old hardware.

Cryptx can confirm ?

exactly, but there is one more thing: people here seem to think dwindling divs is ok because the share price will remain more or less constant or decrease at a lower rate. Of course in reality, once investors start doing some elementary school math they will realize that share value is directly correlated with future dividends and therefore will also decrease by ~7% per week without reinvestment.

I wonder, is there anyone among cryptx investors who invested in gigamining 2 years ago? My guess is: no. Those people would understand by now, the rest of you will have to learn.

Talk about putting your money with ur mouth is hey lol next time don't open your mouth and offer bets you can't handle. If you can't handle 10 would u go 5? Lol

Ive already laid out my terms and my motivation for them. Im not going to bet 10BTC against my own expectation that cryptx will be taken off the market at some point and/or will be forced to reimburse investors (in fiat) for a sum that exceeds IPO value (fiat denominated).

Nice! Well done!   

So let's skip all the nonsense, since my money is already where my mouth is investing in this project, whereas you're all talk right now:

in exactly 6 months if i am not able to receive more than 100% of the amount I put in, this has been a bad investment and you not only get to say 'told you so' but walk away with 10btc to add insult to injury, if I do indeed have more than 100%, either via dividends alone or dividends plus sales of shares, it's been a good investment and I could of done without the headache of listening to your tedious comparisons to BFL monarchs. Sounds fine to me

let me know the neutral escrow

This is what Puppet is referring to:

Div Pay Day   Div %   Re-invest   Repay
6-Jun   2.10%                No   Yes
13-Jun   1.95%                No   Yes
20-Jun   1.82%                No   Yes
27-Jun   1.69%                No   Yes
6-Jun   1.57%                No   Yes
4-Jul          1.46%                No   Yes
11-Jul   1.36% + ?                Yes   No
18-Jul   1.26% + ?           Yes   No
25-Jul   1.18% + ?             Yes   No

For the next 6ish weeks we will repay the loan, then after that reinvest will start again

You can see the Div% diminishes each week, in the calc I used the 7% reduction/week. it wont be like this but over time will average out this way

From the 11th I estimate our reinvestment will kick back in, so we should see an increase in hashrate/divs around then

The thing that I can't calculate into this, is the fact CryptX is selling off old hardware, not sure where this extra btc is going. Two speculations:

1, Will go to pay down loan as comes in
2, Will go to reinvestment, if this one the % decrease in div week to week should be les than 7% but without knowing numbers can't guess.

Last thing that can effect the divs is if the btc price rises it should do two things:

1, Reduce cost of hardware
2. Reduce cost of hosting, since this is in fiat

if goes down, the opposite

Disclaimer: Loads of guessing, some speculation, some rounding of numbers

edit: btc price rises

AM paid out its investors considerably over IPO price in dividends alone and its shares still trade at 3x its IPO price. Never ever gonna happen with cryptx or any mining security.


Purchased at a cost that is a multiple of what it costs competitors who produce their own asics. And with electricity costs that are up to an order of magnitude higher.


You just dont get it do you. Of course you'll still mine BTC's, but never enough to pay the investment. Maybe you'll begin to understand once you've had your Monarch for a few months.


Because none of that changes anything fundamentally.


Thats rich. No one so far has taken up on my offer. Do you want to?

$2600 per TH in 2 months is way too cheap for you?

so, AM is down more than 2000%.. What's the yield on that these days?, less than I can get at my local bank branch last i checked

Difficulty could increase 500%, we are still churning out BTC with some of the most efficient hardware on market
of course should that be the case we'd churning it roughly 5x slower (if theres no investments, no adjustments to dividend ration etc, but BTC is being mined nonetheless)

You don't account for replacing hardware entirely, nor previously accumulated dividends, nor liquidating hardware, nor selling shares. Also, You still didn't put your money where your mouth is either, the one that went like this: I'll give you 10btc if I'm a bagholder in 6 months, otherwise you pay me

Oh its not gonna drop exactly 7% every week especially not as long as investors cant do basic math, but on average the market value of the hashrate that your share represents, will.  Now you can allocate mining revenue to increase your hashrate ('reinvestment') or pay it as dividends or do both in any ratio you want, but if you dont earn more in net mining revenue than the rate at which difficulty goes up, it doesnt take a rocket scientist to figure out what will happen.

Besides, as it happens, last IPO was on May 23  @ 0.0975 Now 2 weeks later thats worth 0.072. -12.5% per week

But hey, enjoy the 2% weekly dividend for as long as it lasts.

And it was 0.05 seven months ago.

If share price drops 7% a week, we'll see 0.05 each share after a month.
And let's say a month later Petamine only hold 1% of the network, then 1 share of Petamine is equal to 0.0000129% of bitcoin network.
That means the whole btc network only value BTC387475.
Just tell me how do you feel about this number.   For me, it's way too cheap.