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Topic: Hedge against BitCoin collapse - page 3. (Read 11669 times)

legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
November 16, 2013, 12:50:15 PM
#92
Sorry but I don't understand what you are trying to stay, why would it be losing for average down?

Let's first define what we mean by averaging down! Cool
I mean this, i.e. adding to a losing trade
legendary
Activity: 1050
Merit: 1003
November 16, 2013, 12:23:06 PM
#91
I am looking for the perfect edge against a bitcoin collapse. My biggest fear is selfish mining or some
other hack on the system. Not so much worried about bears, volatility and governments.  
OMG... the selfish mining scare is a ridiculous farce, but hedging is not a bad idea anyways.

I hedge with PPCoin until some better version of proof of stake comes along.
PPC has security features that bitcoin lacks. Bitcoin has security features that PPCoin lacks. And therein lies the hedge.

Disclosure: I have about 70% value in bitcoin, 30% value in PPCoin, and no other coins (well a few primecoin purely for the novelty value)
  
legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1005
November 16, 2013, 12:08:38 PM
#90
That is absolutely right, average down and sell high...

No better way to lose your money than average down... Grin

Sorry but I don't understand what you are trying to stay, why would it be losing for average down?

might wanna hedge now $475
full member
Activity: 214
Merit: 100
November 16, 2013, 12:06:11 PM
#89
That is absolutely right, average down and sell high...

No better way to lose your money than average down... Grin

Sorry but I don't understand what you are trying to stay, why would it be losing for average down?
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
November 16, 2013, 09:21:25 AM
#88
That is absolutely right, average down and sell high...

No better way to lose your money than average down... Grin
sr. member
Activity: 286
Merit: 250
November 16, 2013, 09:11:19 AM
#87
One approach couple be to manage the btc% of your total net worth

As btc rises and that percentage increases, sell some btc to get back to your target

And if it falls we should just buy back, right? Grin

That is absolutely right, average down and sell high...
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
November 16, 2013, 08:42:50 AM
#86
One approach couple be to manage the btc% of your total net worth

As btc rises and that percentage increases, sell some btc to get back to your target

And if it falls we should just buy back, right? Grin
hero member
Activity: 490
Merit: 500
November 16, 2013, 07:28:38 AM
#85
One approach couple be to manage the btc% of your total net worth

As btc rises and that percentage increases, sell some btc to get back to your target
full member
Activity: 226
Merit: 100
November 16, 2013, 06:50:32 AM
#84
Food, if Bitcoin collapse USD might also collapse all together....
sr. member
Activity: 275
Merit: 250
November 16, 2013, 03:53:12 AM
#83
Litecoin, primecoin and goldcoin.....
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
November 16, 2013, 12:32:44 AM
#82
Gold and Silver would be the best hedge, I presume USD to collapse too...
newbie
Activity: 22
Merit: 0
November 15, 2013, 07:51:30 PM
#81
I believe you have to post only a fraction of the cost of the contact in the range of 15%
This serves as margin. In the event of the move of the spot price above margin threshold you would get margin call and if you don't post more you position gets liquidated

see https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/unofficial-icbit-btc-futures-trading-help-faqs-164255 for unofficial FAQ

And please do your own research before investing.
full member
Activity: 304
Merit: 102
November 15, 2013, 07:33:51 PM
#80
You can hedge against bitcoin on Predictious.com.  Simply bet against bitcoin exceeding X dollar amount by X date.
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
November 15, 2013, 06:20:53 PM
#79
I would advise to open account on https://icbit.se
They operate derivatives market in bitcoins

Good hedge would be to sell future contract(s). It will lock you rate of exchange in some point in time in the future for agreed Notional amount of BTC.
In the case bitcoin crashes you will be able to sell it at current market price.
In the case bitcoin will go up, you will lose out the difference between current market price and future rice.

I'm interested in https://icbit.se as well. However, don't they (Or any other service that sells futures) introduce a counterparty risk?
Given all the wallet/exchange services that have been hacked or disappeared. It seems not sensible to leave funds at the exchange for a few months.
Please, correct me if I misunderstood how they work.
newbie
Activity: 22
Merit: 0
November 15, 2013, 05:11:15 PM
#78
I would advise to open account on https://icbit.se
They operate derivatives market in bitcoins

Good hedge would be to sell future contract(s). It will lock you rate of exchange in some point in time in the future for agreed Notional amount of BTC.
In the case bitcoin crashes you will be able to sell it at current market price.
In the case bitcoin will go up, you will lose out the difference between current market price and future rice.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
November 15, 2013, 04:27:05 PM
#77
If there is found to be a weakness in the bitcoin protocol, alt coins will crash too.

I can guarantee you that technically that doesn't have to be the case. It might be the case with near xerox copies such as Litecoin (although Litecoin isn't vulnerable to ASICs yet, has 5X faster block times, and a more dispersed coin supply), but it won't necessarily be the case with an altcoin that actually fixes the known attacks in Bitcoin. In fact, Bitcoin is broken right now.

Btw, I am not bashing Bitcoin to try to get the price to drop so I can buy. Nor do I need people to stop buying Bitcoin in order for an altcoin to succeed (actually the opposite as it is much easier to trade BTC for an altcoin than to obtain from fiat). I may buy some Bitcoin. I believe Bitcoin's exponential price rise will likely continue for 2 years at least (although brief crashes along the way are possible). Try to not look at everyone as having a black or white position (akin to "you are with us or against us", POTUS Bush when referring to the neocon terrorism police state).

What alt coin fixes the vulnerabilities with bitcoin? That's right, NONE OF THEM DO. They are all essentially just bitcoin.

So far Litecoin removes ASICs, thus making the coin more accessible to the masses.

I agree the current altcoins (except perhaps the PoS ones such as PPC) are not that much different than Bitcoin, but that doesn't mean one won't come.

And an altcoin that addresses a single vulnerability is only a hedge against an exploit being found in that vulnerabilitiy

Agreed, but an altcoin might address many vulnerabilities.

There still is the much larger problem of people losing faith in crypto currencies in general.

Agreed there is. Which is why we need better altcoins asap before that happens, so we can prove there are differences between crypto-currencies in general.

Monolithic systems (e.g. Bitcoin as the only variant with xerox copies) are inherently less resilient. In mathematical terms, they are Taleb's Antifragile.
hero member
Activity: 546
Merit: 500
November 15, 2013, 03:42:10 PM
#76
If there is found to be a weakness in the bitcoin protocol, alt coins will crash too.

I can guarantee you that technically that doesn't have to be the case. It might be the case with near xerox copies such as Litecoin (although Litecoin isn't vulnerable to ASICs yet, has 5X faster block times, and a more dispersed coin supply), but it won't necessarily be the case with an altcoin that actually fixes the known attacks in Bitcoin. In fact, Bitcoin is broken right now.

Btw, I am not bashing Bitcoin to try to get the price to drop so I can buy. Nor do I need people to stop buying Bitcoin in order for an altcoin to succeed (actually the opposite as it is much easier to trade BTC for an altcoin than to obtain from fiat). I may buy some Bitcoin. I believe Bitcoin's exponential price rise will likely continue for 2 years at least (although brief crashes along the way are possible). Try to not look at everyone as having a black or white position (akin to "you are with us or against us", POTUS Bush when referring to the neocon terrorism police state).

What alt coin fixes the vulnerabilities with bitcoin? That's right, NONE OF THEM DO. They are all essentially just bitcoin.

And an altcoin that addresses a single vulnerability is only a hedge against an exploit being found in that vulnerabilitiy

There still is the much larger problem of people losing faith in crypto currencies in general.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
November 15, 2013, 02:19:38 PM
#75
If there is found to be a weakness in the bitcoin protocol, alt coins will crash too.

I can guarantee you that technically that doesn't have to be the case. It might be the case with near xerox copies such as Litecoin (although Litecoin isn't vulnerable to ASICs yet, has 5X faster block times, and a more dispersed coin supply), but it won't necessarily be the case with an altcoin that actually fixes the known attacks in Bitcoin. In fact, Bitcoin is broken right now.

Btw, I am not bashing Bitcoin to try to get the price to drop so I can buy. Nor do I need people to stop buying Bitcoin in order for an altcoin to succeed (actually the opposite as it is much easier to trade BTC for an altcoin than to obtain from fiat). I may buy some Bitcoin. I believe Bitcoin's exponential price rise will likely continue for 2 years at least (although brief crashes along the way are possible). Try to not look at everyone as having a black or white position (akin to "you are with us or against us", POTUS Bush when referring to the neocon terrorism police state).
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
November 15, 2013, 02:14:48 PM
#74
The biggest threat to bitcoin right now is the Bitcoin Foundation itself and companies like the one Yifu started:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/mike-hearn-foundations-law-policy-chair-is-pushing-blacklists-right-now-333824

Regulation of Bitcoin will eventually kill it, the controls start as minor and then become all consuming. Thats how this game works.

Excellent that you are awake. My group and I were discussing this in private and it is one of our motivations for creating a serious altcoin with superior anonymity.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
November 15, 2013, 02:13:18 PM
#73
I own no LTC or PPC.

Just for posterity, I believe that at one time you had offered to borrow LTC so that you could sell it to have a short position.  I don't know if you had completed that transaction but disclosing that you have no position now might not be an objective way of describing your position.

For the record, I too own no LTC or PPC, but at some point in the future would possibly consider LTC.  My criteria for a proof-of-work based crypt coin is simply is whether or not sufficient hashing capacity exists.  If (when) a Scrypt ASIC gives the litecoin network's total hashrate a boost such that a 51% there too becomes uneconomical then I might be willing to acquire some LTC.

Good to know. Thanks.
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