Topic: Here's how mass adoption plays out in my opinion - page 2. (Read 2903 times)

Afbitcoins has a point. The monetary system is very sick and negative interest rates are already in effect. The banks have been unable to push these negative interest rates to the customer yet but they actually exist (=they have to pay interest to the central banks for owning money) and it is hurting a lot of banks mid to long-term.

I'm afraid we will see more clinging to the old system for a considerable amount of time, interest rates having to go back up to stabilize the status-quo. The Fed will likely raise interests very soon by a fraction of a percentage point just to signal that the system is not bricked. The European Central bank however wants to do even more quantative easing as long as Draghi doesn't wake up to a reality where either customers have to pay interest for their deposits, which will cause everyone to do a bank-run and hold their otherwise devaluing money in cash OR the banks will need to be rescued again sooner or later as their profits are drowning due to sustained interest payments to the ECB/FED.

all this is just speculation on the adoption, no different than speculating on the value, as i see it, there are two ways to grow

via big investors that begin to pump the price and then little fish will follow, and so by creating a bigger market cap you have more chances to attract everybody else

or simply demand increase because fiat begin to be not trustworthy anymore, because of the crisis, and banks begin to fall, otherwise if the fiat system will remain intact, i see no reason for average joe to shift for bitcoin

Oh wow

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Every point you have made has been shown to be not simply false, but hilariously, can't.make.this.shit.up wrong.
How is this sidetracking?
As far as banning cash: If it comes to that, you can be certain that bitcoin will be outlawed long before that.
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LOL

Bitcoin "adoption" will start with speculative attacks against weak currencies. People will borrow their weak national currencies and sell it for bitcoin. The weak currencies will get even weaker due to increased supply until the weak currencies are destroyed.

Speculative attack will break peg after peg and kill weak currency after weak currency. Central banks will be forced to add bitcoin to their reserves out of fear that bitcoin could grow big enough to threaten major currencies.

This will only make bitcoin go higher. Once bitcoin reaches critical mass, the speculative attacks will begin.

There is no guarantee it will be adopted with stability. It would make things much easier. At least people will no run scared because their money has just lost 30% of it's value.

Currently we in a nice and good moment. Most need investors should have seen an increase after we reach our low (200 dollar).

Lets be realistic.
Bitcoin will be adopted, when its price stabilizes. The reason it is not adopted is because its price very unstable.

More adoption will cause the price of Bitcoin to skyrocket. This in turn will cause panic as people will think Bitcoin has become volatile again, or they may start to look at Bitcoin as a huge bubble. This will decrease the acceptance of the currency again and will in turn cause Bitcoin to crash all the way down to pennies and dimes.  

The ideas many users are dreaming about on this forum are far-fetched and very unlikely to happen, that does not mean it WON'T happen...it's just very unlikely.

As far as I know bitcoin is not illegal yet even though it seems you'd like it to be. Anyway, pointless arguing with someone like you and I can no longer be bothered my point has been made.

Ah rarity coin, you deleted your comment did you. Probably a wise move.

Anyway too late I saw it. They can ban bitcoin all they want by the way but it is decentralised so they can't stop it or stop people using it.

Lets start with my last point then. Why is it hilariously wrong that banks are seriously discussing negative interest rates and banning cash ?

less than one minute of googling comes up with these kinds of articles in mainstream media ..

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/bank-of-england/11874061/Negative-interest-rates-could-be-necessary-to-protect-UK-economy-says-Bank-of-England-chief-economist.html?WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_FPM_New

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21589128

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-3329324/Swiss-bank-ABS-hit-savers-negative-rates.html

http://www.independent.co.uk/money/spend-save/is-a-cashless-society-really-on-the-cards-8714651.html

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/denmark-moves-closer-to-a-cashless-society-10231995.html

So why am I hilariously wrong ?

This is all very interesting sidetrack but my main point is that bitcoin is a very attractive alternative for storing value when banks start imposing negative interest rates and banning cash. Which they must do in order to try and prop up their failing monetary system.
 

Not sure if joking.

Without investing in a formal study, I'll hazard a guess: The average life expectancy of a cryptocurrency is about a week.
Source: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=159.0

The Average Life Expectancy For A Fiat Currency Is 27 Years ... Every 30 To 40 Years The Reigning Monetary System Fails And Has To Be Retooled

http://georgewashington2.blogspot.co.uk/2011/08/average-life-expectancy-for-fiat.html

That's likely to happen if a subject about bitcoin will be included at school but anyway I look at it it's not possible. There are too many things to consider, if it's a threat to a government control especially financially, they will surely find a way of controlling it. Like maybe cutting all of your internet connections....  

ok i grant that devaluing money currency has gone on longer than 1971, but if chart went back to the days before central banking I'm betting you would see stable prices i was referring to. Fed was created in 1913.

Right.
http://s12.postimg.org/5t963n34d/Capture.png
Quote post to see chart

Throughout my lifetime the worlds monetary system has been a system of unbacked debt based money. We are quite unique living in a world where money devalues constantly, generations before us used to enjoy stable prices that lasted their lifetimes.

But cracks are starting to appear in this system which is unsustainable and must end. So far they are papering over it, propping it up and trying to keep it going  but even so the day of reckoning is coming. Every country on earth is heavily indebted to banks, and the debt growing bigger and bigger in unsustainable fashion. It is impossible to pay back the debt because all the money would also disappear with it. The debt literally is our money used in day to day transactions. Stated another way the money in your bank is someones debt it is not representing an asset somewhere. It must grow because the interest on debts which have gone before is still there needing payment.

Look at all the talk today about zero interest rates not being enough! Realise what this means. They are forced into a corner, to keep it going they will need more repression, they will need negative interest rates. They will need to ban cash. Clearly this will meet huge resistance, especially when things like bitcoin exist which people can flee to.

I guess my point is that capital controls becoming more and more restrictive will make decentralised, bitcoin look more and more peachy.

We may not get a gradual migration of banks to bitcoin but a flood of people using it as the fiat system goes into death throes.

These things can happen quickly, the world was gold backed then one day in 1971 suddenly it wasn't.





 

Security will greatly improve with the rise of decentralized internet making hacking a thing of the past.

If bitcoin becomes #1 currency then banks will go bankrupt.
Banks cannot provide loans on bitcoin. They need IOYs and thus fiat.
Governments can't operate without loans.
Small startups an companies neither.
Nobody can help you if you het robbed.
Nobody can force you to pay your debts.


Example in 100% bitcoin world: Terrorists or hackers could steal all the bitcoin of the US and cripple them into the stoneage.

Bitcoin has its uses but #1 currency in a human society will fail without a rigorous cultural revolution.

Your scenario looks really nice but something tells me that banks will stick with their private blockchains as long as they are working for them, as they give them most of control. They will drop their private blockchains just when they see no one is using them and consequently this no usage will be started by the ordinary people and companies which will realize how much stronger and more powerful real decentralized blockchain like Bitcoin really is, over these private, bank owned blockchains!