Topic: hmm mining profitability this year? Will it drop like oil price?We need an OPEC? (Read 1226 times)

Really...
That argument about overfishing of your was not bs...right?
Once we fish all the fish, next year we will have the same amount, right, cause the Easterbunny will just make more!!

But let's see...

If you want to play with arbitrary data, then how about his?
Holding bitcoins for the last 3 months and you're down 50% whit if you would have bought miners at that time you would have already made a profit.

Next difficulty estimate:   3,508,548,055,741   +6.62%

Seems like peak oil..mining is nowhere near, even with another 10% drop in price since we last talked.

Hmmm mining supply increases and halving for ltc/btc is in late 2019/2020. However, btc difficulty doubling in 2 months from 1.4T to 2.8T is a halving on its own lol. Btc didnt double in price but difficulty did. Threat of new supply from dragonmint and new stronger asics are ever existing and higher since there are more players now. Any rise in btc is countered by rise in difficulty since mining equipment is in high available supply and quick delivery unlike in the past when they were sold out. Oh well. Even if btc shoots up, the holders will make money. The miners will not because tons of miners can be sold and delivered quickly. People will collectively buy with the hope and assumption that difficulty will not rise so much but it will. And it wont be is the same craze as when ant S9 was selling at 5-7K usd on ebay when btc is at 18-20k because there are avail miners from manufacturers now.


Dots... I guess no point arguing with u since u hell bent on winning an argument with bs. It is already clear cut that mining has taken a turn for the worst, as predicted.... People cant even sell coupons for miners at 25% of coupon price lol. The miners can be delivered in the same month now, not 3 months. Holding bitcoin instead of mining in the last 8 months makes like 200+ % more and the trend is expected to continue. Anyways, good luck to u buddy.

How about we do it like this...
Since it's obvious predictions should be made before the event, and you say that miners are not selling anymore, mining is dead, can you tell us at what hashrate (of difficulty) bitcoin mining will have its peak?
This should be really interesting.

Now back to the OPEC story and comparison...
If you think that losing 2% market share to stabilize the price and let your competitor just make more money while you lose millions it's the best idea than I would have to concede defeat on this.
Saudi Arabia has proven in the past why making cuts to drive price up is a really bad idea.
But this time the whole OPEC will feel it... hot and heavy, deep and deeper.

PS.
I'm asking for another piece of info from you, sorry for being greedy...
How many people in this world (that are not into mining), do you think CARE about the finances of bitcoin miners if they do profit or not and how many about it being decentralized?

Huh? wat u talking about. All my predictions have been right. Made good money off oil too. If they dont have OPEC, oil price would be under 30-40 dollars now (like in the past) and higher cost producers would make losses while lower cost producers would make little money. However, there is OPEC, and now everyone makes money...more for lower cost producers, less for higher cost producers. It is a win-win situation.

We dont have an OPEC for mining and as u can see, mining is bad now, just as predicted. Asics are not selling lol.
Newbie miners may not break even.
Older miners make lesser. No winner. Newbies lose more.

U are funny. There is no way miners can be sold for 10 bucks or too much lower lol. Lower miner prices easily mean oversupply again and thus lower profits pet miner. Same problem, not a solution. It is the same as wat happen with the antminer D3. From 5k to 1.45k per miner (depending on batch) but guess wat, it makes 50-120 bucks per month now and many wont break even lol. The 8% recent increase is small and is probably from new miners deployed that ordered in 3 months ago. People are not ordering now or will order very little as u can see.

When difficulty rise from 1.4T to 2.8T, that means u get half the bitcoin rate. This isnt good for the older miners but it is far worst for the newbie miners. Oh well, good luck to those newbie miners. I see alot of cursing so far. Why would u wanna see chaos for newbie miners?? Even the newbie miners dont want this chaos and losses. It would have been better if there was an OPEC for mining as it would protect the newbie miners from bad decisions.

Home miners are not killed by large scale farming actually. The efficiency gap isnt the issue. Being early is far more important than being late here.

---

(Moderator's note: This post was edited by frodocooper to trim the quote from stompix.)

Oh , wait!!!!
So, since your other topic was about the necessity of having an OPEC like cartel this is like you admitting defeat.
OPEC and Russia cut their production to drive up the oil price while shale producers are just raking up profits.
Nice!!!!

Ps, you enjoyed your stop at the gas station when oil was at 130$?
I'm happy with it coming back at 30$.



Since difficulty is jumping, bitcoinity showing 8% it seems like people are still buying and plugin those in.
Mining will be dead when you would make a difference by mining via CPU.
Till that moment bitcoin mining is still alive and kicking.

And from my point of view and my personal opinion how things should be, the sooner miners are sold at 10$ a piece and mining will not be an industry the better.
Right now If I would want just to secure the network I would have to pay an extra 2000$ just for the miner and then hope for half of it back on profits.

I would rather spend 50$ on a miner and take the hit on all the electricity it consumes and mine just as a hobby.
But home miners were killed by large scale farming.
And once this changes then we will have real decentralization. Can't wait for it.

Look at the amount they have to sell.  They're dumping them.

Well, their competitors are also selling around the same price. I guess they going for more profit margins rather than volume.

---

(Moderator's note: This post was edited by frodocooper to remove a quote from, and a response to, a deleted post.)

Not sure but that possibility does exist. I hope not.


It is pretty dead. U can buy miners and get it delivered in 4 weeks now, not 3 months. U can get them at a discount on ebay or from asic manufacturers. They are not SOLD OUT now LOL. Hard to image those miner were going for 5-7k USD back then on ebay. If u wanna buy from bitmain, do PM me, i have good discount on coupons . Bitmain has been giving everyone tons of coupons.


Take a look here.
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-difficulty.html

Bitcoin difficulty is 0.3T in Jan 2017
It is 1.4T in mid Dec 2017
It is 2.8T in mid Feb 2018

In just 2 months from Dec 2017 to Feb 2018, difficulty doubled, increasing by 1.4T, which is more than the difficulty increase of 11 months from Jan 2017 to Dec 2017.
It is currently at 3.0T. Basically, the increase slowed because bitcoin price has not increased much but difficulty has increased alot. Profitability dropped greatly.


GPU mining is abit more profitable than bitcoin mining now. It used to be such that bitcoin mining made twice as much as GPU mining since GPU is safer and have far longer warranty of 2-5 years, not 6 months. Well, there are only 2 gpu manufacturers and thus no oversupply, unlike asics.


Fyi, I didnt say shale is dead. Shale lives but oil price is dead. Oil price used  to be above 100 and it collapsed. It is now near 65 and that is ONLY due to OPEC (and Russia) cutting ALOT of supply. It was 28 bucks 2 years ago due to oversupply. If asic sales were limited, profit from mining will go up too.


So, current ASIC manufactures have the capacity to increase it by 0.7T per month if they could sell all their asics. The last thing needed is more asic manufacturers. In the past, asics sold when the breakeven was about 3-4 months. There are only 6 months warranty after all. Now, with the new 2.3k pricing, u are looking at say 9-10 months at current difficulty. With old pricing, it would still be about 7 months at current difficulty. Miners only have 6 months warranty and more importantly, this is not factoring in additional difficulty increases which can be alot higher now than last year. It has been alot more profitable to buy bitcoin rather than mine bitcoin and this trend will probably continue since difficulty can skyrocket so easily. I didnt even factor setup costs, rental costs or new more efficient miners making older miners earn less. At these numbers, unfortunately, there will be alot of new miners who dont break even. The older ones who mined in the better months should be fine.

They are selling it for 2300 instead of 1400(November price). I wouldn't call that dumping.

Correct about what?
About this one below?


Weird that transactions are getting through so somebody is mining blocks and difficulty is going up..so it's quite the opposite.
Bitcoinity is showing a 7% increase for this period.. so no , not dead yet



This major pop that has occurred....what was it again?

Really you sound just like those guys that were saying shale is dead, shale is bankrupt, shale industry debt will be the reason banks will enter another recession because of the huge sums accumulated, and so on. I suppose I don;t have to tell you nothing like that happened.

If you believe in BTC, mine on!

There's a reason why Bitmain is dumping s9's on the market....new stuff is incoming (and is probably mining already)

Looking at the current mining situation.
Sigh, I did not want to be correct about this

Dude, mining is more predictable because there are more maufacturers and stronger machines now, thus more difficulty.
Difficulty is so high with lesser machines and weaker ones last year. This year has more manufacturers and stronger machines being sold....

Just as it's hard to predict BTC price it's hard to predict mining. You're right there's a ton of attention being given to it right now, but just like the herd mentality that drove BTC to 20k and then sold at 7k there's tons of people buying miners and then realizing they are too loud, they're too hot, they got scammed, etc. etc. In addition how much of all those new operations are actually mining moving from existing locations or even from overseas? No way to tell, so while yes, I agree that hashrate is going up and in turn difficulty. I believe that some hard times will shake loose a big portion of the herd and things will settle in to a better environment.

The *same* can be said for the market. So personally I remain bullish on both.

In general, it is more likely to get worse because :

1- Ebit and canaan have stronger machines this year. Difficulty is going to rise.
2- There are alot of news sources saying how great mining and using ridiculous numbers and assumptions. In other words, there is huge hype. Kodak's has a crazy offer where users payi 3400 to lease an antminer S9. It was apparently a success hit with investors lol and their stock price went up alot. I see tons of these articles in my flipboard
3- There are possible new entrants like dragonmint which has collected a few months of orders. These people may be real.
4 -Bitmain,etc seems to be having miners for sale. There will still be people buying due to point 2.

I wrote these sort of topics awhile back, hoping for some solution but I guess not. Mining is not gonna be breaking even for many if this continues. Alot of people will scream scam later. It is not a scam but it does not make sense. Sadly, there will be alot of pain and losses, like the D3 and those obelisk miner guys.

I suggest u dont buy GPU either because there is TOO MUCH HYPE news about how GPU mining is great. My flipboard alone has these daily. It is insane. There is also risk of ethereum going proof of stake this year.

I really hope to be wrong on all this.

At ten cent power it is 400 days with the assumption price matches diff.

300 fully flat price flat diff.

Never with flat price and 2% diff.

Looks like gpus are better at the moment

Please tell me how you calculated 20 months?

hell if you buy an s9 now and start mining you need about 20 months to ROI
and this is IF the bitcoin price and difficulty stays the same

Yep, and I mentioned that is the problem. Do not assume that price will go up 10 times in a year like it did last year....
Very unlikely this year. The major pop has occurred.

That's because difficulty skyrocketed and manufacturers doubled their prices while bitcoin went the opposite direction and took a nosedive straight to the bottom! A perfect storm against miners.