In general, cartel's only work when there is no good substitute for a product that folks need or want. For most of the world, Bitcoin isn't an actual factor in their lives. If the entire Bitcoin industry evaporated overnight, the overall effect on the world would me minuscule. OPEC was able to control a product for which there was no viable substitute, at that time. Fast forward some 45 years, and you find that OPEC doesn't have nearly the control they once did.
I realize that for some folks on these forums, Bitcoin is their livelihood, but they have to realize that their "product" (i.e. mining) is more akin to a commodity (lots of alternatives), or possible a luxury good (i.e. the FOMO crowd).
I wonder if there was ever a thought given to a "Tulip growers cartel" back a few hundred years ago?
Topic: hmm mining profitability this year? Will it drop like oil price?We need an OPEC? - page 3. (Read 1153 times)
January 19, 2018, 03:27:56 PM
January 19, 2018, 02:35:02 AM
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BTC mining difficulty will keep skyrocketing. Mining at home will be hard to get back your BTC investment on miners starting this year. If BTC fiat price goes through the roof like in 2017, mining makes (a lot of) profit in terms of fiat. My two cents: BTC mining has become arm race among big mining farms with nearly free electricity, and individuals hold your BTC.
There is no such thing as free electricity though.
The thing is bitcoin mining is small compared to other industries. If big companies juz come in with abit more capital, it is possible for mining to be u profitable even for everyone, even with free electricity. News sources have added too much hype and interest into mining.
For big miners, wouldnt it be in their best interest to make 300 dollars per machine rather than 50-100 dollars per machine??
There will make alot more.
Thus, bitmain/canaan avalon/ebit should sit down and talk about how to not release too many machines (limit supply), rather than all 3 release so many that everyone earns alot less....including bitmain/canaan/ebit who are big miners themselves yes. They need to come together and make a cartel, like how OPEC did in the oil industry to control profits....and i hope they dont forget the to sell to the small miners too. In any case, I dont see how it can work out if they keep attracting more companies to come in. Btc mining has a low barrier to entry and almost every company out there can do it if they want to.
I hope to be wrong though. It might be best that they create a btc mining cartel.
Just my 2 cents
January 18, 2018, 11:19:50 PM
In 2017, btc rose from 1k to about 20k, about 20 times. Mining difficulty rose alot.
This year, avalon and ebit will release newer stronger models for btc. Bitmain still sells S9 as normal.
Thus, we should expect mining difficulty to increase abit more than usual due to the stronger models.
That being said, it is very unlikely that bitcoin will rise 20 times this year again but it is likely that the machines will still be sold by manufacurers for profit.
Thus, btc mining might turn unprpfitable later in the year or give very low profit.....kinda like the D3 and kinda like wat happen to OIL prices when shale oil producers pumped out too much oil.
As a miner, I really hope to be wrong. What do u guys think?
This year, avalon and ebit will release newer stronger models for btc. Bitmain still sells S9 as normal.
Thus, we should expect mining difficulty to increase abit more than usual due to the stronger models.
That being said, it is very unlikely that bitcoin will rise 20 times this year again but it is likely that the machines will still be sold by manufacurers for profit.
Thus, btc mining might turn unprpfitable later in the year or give very low profit.....kinda like the D3 and kinda like wat happen to OIL prices when shale oil producers pumped out too much oil.
As a miner, I really hope to be wrong. What do u guys think?
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