Topic: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. (Read 3632 times)

part of sorting the diff threads.

 I have a new thread for next diff jump

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/newest-btc-prediction-is-023-to-958-diff-jump-on-sept-28th-781447

see it if you want to go to fairley's site it may help handicappers pick the next jump

Yap - we just resolved our prediction: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-31b/
Those who made the right prediction earned quite a lot since in the beginning most user believed it would result in >31B. The payout to those who predicted it right has been nearly 2,800 mBTC.

Just set up two new predictions for the next round:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-32b/
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-33b/

Difficulty just advanced to 29,829,733,124.

under 10 blocks  to go looks to be in at 9.18%

or 29,950M.

If we stay at 9.18 from now until dec 31st  diff will be just about 2x at 60,000M

That number is pretty good if it stays like that.

btcwisdom is now at 9.01%

29,901M is the prediction.  It was as high as 14% and 31,000M

Down  more:

 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   27,428,630,902
Estimated Next Difficulty:   29,997,491,453 (+9.37%)
Adjust time:   After 477 Blocks, About 3.1 days


http://bitcoincharts.com/

Difficulty   27428630902
Estimated   29407065995 in 476 blks

7.21% here

So  the two have drifted from .0007  to 7.2%

And from 14.78   to 9.37%

This is the common pattern since bitcoincharts is real time number that projects  it self into the future.

btcwisedom uses the realtime number and older data to guess the future.  since growth has been slower since june 30th   they have had a different accuracy pattern.  or at least a smaller pattern.   So one tends to always be high the other tend to always be low and they trend to the middle.

now at the 3 day mark 9% looks good.

with a 9% rate in the bag there is a large incentive to not increase your gear until the day after the jump.  (say what)   this is for the miners that count the builders.

bitmain tech will start shipping today knowing that the rates will drop a bit for the next 2-3 days while the gear is in transit.  So we may go down to 8% then the next jump will come in 14-15 days that way both the new gear owners of an s-3 get a break  for the first  2 weeks of ownership.  and if bitmaintech wants to mine then ship in 2 jumps it  is rinse and repeat .

  So while my .0007 jump got attention it looks to be part of the overall builders diff jump plan for us few small miners. I will take the 8-9 percent to the bank.

The predicted rise gets even smaller. It might result in a difficulty of <30B. https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bitcoin-difficulty-30b-on-september-15/

However, the .0007 jump was never realistic. I think it is just the way http://www.bitcoincharts.com/ does the calculation - as far as I observed they always predict a minimum change right after the latest change and then it converges against the real next diff. Thus after 1 week it converges 50% (if the hashrate increase would be constant and linear of the ≈2 weeks.

Bitcoin Wisdom is, at 3 days to go, predicting 10.6%. If their prediction algorithm is sane, the prediction should converge to the reality as the time runs out. Anyway, it's far bigger than 0.0007%.

while it is 10.86 from btc wise it is under that at bitcoincharts

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

 Bitcoin Difficulty ----------27,428,630,902
Estimated Next Difficulty:   30,408,729,351 (+10.86%)
Adjust time:   After 663 Blocks, About 4.3 days

http://bitcoincharts.com/

Difficulty   27428630902
Estimated   29354966811 in 663 blks

This is around 7%

At 4 days to go, bitcoinwisdom predicts a 10.8% increase. It should be close to that.

Oddly I notice that Bitmain shipping is on hiatus and the large spikes during each difficulty are on a hiatus.  The numbers don't add up but the timeframes do 

I love to see the bulls stampede, but I am afraid what I am getting this time is bull shits

  In a nutshell this is the problem.  also both bitmain and am will make data centers.  bitmain open one to the non- Chinese recently.
They may get government subsidized power .  China has built a lot of empty cities since 2011.  They could rent on or two dowzn spots to both companies and the dragon maker company.  So a ware house with cheap power in a cold place in China can add ph's of hash. The home miners are just not needed .

OH back to the thread  bitcoinwisedom has dropped to 12.55% https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  I am still hoping for under 10%

That is probably true. However - it might be possible to use the growth rate of MHash/$ and Mhash/J of the known consumer miners to estimate the growth of the network.

Using Bitmain or any consumer ASIC manufacturer's shipments to predict difficulty growth is rather pointless these days.

Consumer gear is playing a much diminished role in moving the difficulty higher. There aren't enough home miners to make that much of a difference.

The big hash power is coming from manufacturers with their own hardware and datacenters. That's what's moving the difficulty higher. And there's no reliable way to predict that growth.

Thanks! Actually that is one of our next plans: we want to have an additional interface to difficulty predictions on a simple website, called: "bitcoin mining insurance". The idea is to insure your mining investment against a certain difficulty (e.g. 100B at at end of the year). Basically it is a bet that it will happen. Even if you don't want to risk any money you can profit from it because you can see at what conditions people are willing to predict on something.

Have a look what the difficulty might be by the end of the year: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/difficulty/

P.S. if you want to know more about the concept of the site: read this interview: http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/interview-fairlay-prediction-market-replace-bitcoin-bookies/

Well I don't place bets like that,but your site has a nice idea if used properly you can hedge your mining investments with your site.
Myself I hope the best for your site. Maybe a winner from the last guess could post about you. Let us know how the site is.

actually we offer a option on our site to predict the next difficulty.

If your are interested what users predict (and are willing to put BTC on this predictions) click on [show additional information] here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-31b/

Right now most user are thinking ne next dif will be ">31". That results in higher odds for "<31B". Right now you get 3.5 times your money back if you predict on <31B and it turns out as the truth.

Basically we think most user on our site trust in the prediction of bitcoinwisdom.

Well about this time last year silk road was busted coins were under 100usd.  then along came a 90 day bull run. coins got over 1100.  maybe the bulls s stampede  for the next 90 days.