Topic: Hope for the best, Expect the worst - page 2. (Read 893 times)

Agreed, except for shorting below the 20-week MA. Once the trend has reached that far, it's likely to be near a local bottom.

Take the August 2015 crash, for example. By the time the weekly closed below the 20MA, price hit the ultimate bottom less than a week later just 13% lower. You could easily short the bottom that way.

I would prefer to find a local bottom, then short the subsequent bounce to the 20MA, like February/May/July 2018. That way you don't have to hold shorts through such a painful drawdown.

The OP chart seems a fair call, I dont count the high we've fallen from now as that special.   I dont think its too late to sell just we might need a stop loss as prices do need to confirm their weekly bar or whatever is the wider look

So on 4hr bar view price is increasingly weak and I count it as such while under 10,400.    It can recover but I reckon a sell is fair while its submerged in this way



its not a clear chart but on the daily bars for me we explored our range upwards and hit the previous positive trend, its not surpassed that.   Since thats capped the upside, I think downside is more possible.   I would be alot richer if I could find the right confidence timing, its not easy because usually you have to overcome the markets doubts and noise but for what its worth Im more bearish for the moment.

An update on the current situation regarding this analysis.


The current 20SMA on the weekly is at 7591$ not a bad increase from last week , now from now till end of the week any drop to that level of 7.5k should not be taken as the end of this rally, so stay calm.

overall the trend is losing momentum, a month or two of consolidation and most likely lower highs is to be expected, also keep in mind that we are 35% far from the last high BTC made so selling now is not the best thing to do, for those who still looking for good entry points 8.5k to 9.5k should be it, and of cource if you are a trader, it would be safe to buy BTC near the 20SMA and to short it if price closes below it.

An old school trick/rule that can help you identify a strong buying momentum vs a weak one is the higher highs and higher lows.  

The scenario below would be a good indication that this mini rally is here to stay and it will be hard to reverse it





The scenario below means this likely just a correction of the down trend and more is to come.




Realistically this weekly candle needs to close above the 5SMA which is at 10738$ for it to be considered bullish in the short term, as you can see in the chart below the 5 SMA (blue) is putting a lot of resistance which won't be easy to break, but if we do close above it, that's great news.

The increase of 15% today was followed up by fairly strong volumes. It's impossible to expect more given how uncertain the market still is. People aren't going in full but keep some aside just in case.

If we can have a bullish close on the daily chart we are likely to see +$11k levels, but this leg up could still be another lower high, so we shouldn't get overly excited even when the price touches $12k in the coming weeks.

As far week hands not being shaken out, most definitely not, but we've done well to shake out enough to fuel the current increase. Time will tell whether or not it will last, but people are certainly happy with it.

IF we reach the 20SMA it's more  likely than not that we do NOT go below it, i'd would say 70% we bounce back 30% we drop below


Not really, you should understand how moving averages work, without having to go into explanation on the different between SMA that uses open price, high, low etc. let me explain the default setting which are usually the closing price of each week.


every weekend (Sunday) midnight whatever price is at that moment is recorded into a table, same things happens every week, the average of the last 20 weeks is taken by adding 20 numbers dived by 20.

which means, based on the last week's reading including the previous 19 weeks closing prices, the 20SMA is at 7200, but if this week closing price will change it, it could be 7400 or any other number depending on the closing price.

now if you understood the above, you should understand that for btc to correct at 7200$ it must happen before Sunday this week, which is very unlikely to be realistic, and since the current value 7200$ takes into account some closing prices of 4k or even 3k it means that even if price stays leveled at 9-10k the 20 SMA should only rise.

now the correction to 20SMA must happen sooner or later, the 7200$ is the worst scenario, provided btc sinks anywhere from today until Sunday, but assuming it doesn't correct to the 20SMA until say Sep then the lowest it can go would be 8500$, if it happens in OCT that could be 10k etc.


long story short : forget the number, watch the moving average itself, if you are looking for a buying opportunity that  20 SMA is a golden chance, but no matter what you do, do not wait for price to get to 7k or 8k , as I mentioned earlier, I am slowly buying my way up, every dip should be bought, and keep in mind the bigger the gap between current price and 20SMA the bigger the correction, even if btc was to head to 20k in a few weeks and the 20SMA still hangs around say 13k, price has to go back to test it, so learn to take profit if you want to trade, if you want to hodl for years then you should not waste your time reading any TAs because these are more like short term.

The best to expect is altcoins will recover to it's profitable price increasing value but the worst is same bearish trend will affect and make the price decline temporarily. Same with whaf we've experienced with btc at first, it pumped high the suddenly falls down.

I am not a big charts guy so if you can answer me mikeywith that would be awesome. If we actually hit back on sma20 at 7200 dollars, does that mean it will stop there or could it also keep going down?

I do not understand charts at all so this may sound like an idiot question to you but from my understanding if the longest period where bitcoin went up without touching back to SMA20 seems 154 days from your post and that means could it be also under 154 days without touching it? That would mean that we would eventually reach 7200 dollars (don't know when) and then stay under it for another 150+ days without going back up which is a sad news. However, if it means it might reach 7200 and then go back up then that shouldn't be a big problem since we could eventually recover and go back up.

It looks like the shake is over if it aint a correction. The bad side is if they are already accumulating while we are waiting.
Me, will be one of the victim though. 
I am still giving it a week and if this price goes back down then I am buying already. Don't want them to be on the front row while I am just following them.
But if this goes to another stable week or a month then, there is a good chance an upward will come.
Just means the FOMO's are getting stronger hands which traders would not want to happen. 
There should always be volatility for profits.

Was always looking for another entry point for my buys and I was thinking that anything below $10k was already a good possibility. We're now back at the $10k levels after a harsh correction down to $9300 these past few days and I don't think we'll be seeing a lot more downward action anytime sooner, but then again the forward momentum is still bleak. Orders from the buying side is still weak though, and I don't think the weak hands are already shaken--not yet.

Generally people perceive the idea of TA wrongly. They think TA is some mathematics formula using which will bring us to single solution. That's wrong! TA doesn't bring absolute results. It is based on previous trends and in most of the cases subjective. Trends are further based on the past actions of traders. Now traders don't act in the same way every time. So TA is nothing but a short summary of all previous actions of traders. Therefore, we can say analysis of same security can show us two or more possible happenings (like the one in OP). In other words, TA can only show us possible roads and it is entirely our wish which road we want to walk on.

Noobs will fail every test. It's impossible for them to withstand the brutal nature of this market when they 1) have invested their life savings, and 2) they have no clue about how Bitcoin works under the hood. Every $1-$2000 dip makes them question themselves so much that it drives them nuts to a degree where the sell button is just one click away.

Noobs trading stocks are similar. In the last couple of decades nothing changed when it comes to their behavior during corrections, so why would anything change in a market that's even more volatile and brutal? No amount of tips and tricks is enough to educate these poor fellas. They should stay far away from any type of market.

I believe in the analysis you have made and it is very clear that bitcoin will still go below $9000 or maybe to the support level of around $7500 as is been speculated. Most of the cryptocurrency analyst is saying the same thing as I have read on Twitter and cryptocurrency sites' news. The hope we have in this is that bitcoin will take off from the 20ma on the weekly chart or 200ma on the daily chart.

That is not exactly what i am actually trying to say, but let me rephrase the OP in simple points


1- We will very likely test the 20 SMA on the weekly pretty soon ( doesn't matter where it is by then ) for more details about this exact point please read my previous post .


2-There is no reason to panic if we were to see sub 7k or 8k , it does not mean we were entering a bear market , if that happens, think of it as the PERFECT correction which will give us enough power to break 14k.


3-If price closes below the 20SMA it is a bad sign, the trend will officially be looked at as a down trend, and rally to 14k was merely a correction of a bigger and more brutal down trend  ( very low portability scenario, as the tittle says : expect the worst)

4-buying near the 20SMA when price is above it is a probably one of the best trades one can make in terms of risk:reward ratio.

So short term, are you saying that we will see levels sub-$7k?

I don't necessarily think that is a likely scenario, given that we are in an established bull market already and that we've seen support at $9k which caused the rebound today. But if it does ever get that low then it's certainly a zone for accumulation.

I really don't understand the panic that people have shown over the past week or so, though. Like we get it, prices did go down drastically from a high of around $14k all the way to sub-$10k, but what else do you realistically expect in a bull market where markets in the short run are extremely volatile? Also, it's not like this correction is unwarranted in any way, prices have simply been growing at unsustainable rates for the past 1-2 months.

Took me some time to come up with the exact figures, but there we have it, as always - chart first






I had to zoom out this much, all the way to July 2010 ! you can't really see every single detail, but that does not matter, the purpose here is to focus on one simple thing which is:

How long can btc rally last without having to go back to the 20SMA on the weekly to "recharge" ?

you can see that it varies a lot, but overall during every bull market we had starting from 2010 , every time BTC said good buy to the 20SMA had to come back and touch it, there is a total of 10 times, the current one is the 11th

the longest one we had was back in late 2012 to early 2013 , a total of 154 days where BTC had enough momentum to last that long without having to go back and test the 20 SMA while average of those 10 moves is 120 days


The red part of the 20SMA was obviously drawn by me,I tried to maintain the same curvature beside taking into account that fact that we last couple weeks have been bearish which mean the angel of the trend has to get lower thus move slower to the upside at least the next couple weeks.


Now if we were to have an average move, then by end of this month, we should test the 20 SMA at around 7800$ , if we are going to repeat the longest run ever then we should rest on the 20 SMA sometime around 2nd Sep at at 8500$.


is it possible that we make a new record , say 200 days without having to take a break at the 20SMA station? it is indeed possible , but is it very likely that we are going to do so ? not very likely i'd say.

Remember that right now the 20 SMA is at 7200$ , took us almost 100 days of almost only green candles and a total of 277% increase in price to get to this mark, now assuming we would have the same thing again (nearly impossible) but let's just assume the 20 SMA will be hanging at 14500$ when btc does another 277% , BTC will be trading at about 50k while the 20SMA is at 14k , that is not possible, it's more likely than not that we should test the 20 SMA pretty soon if this trend is intending to be healthy.


also @ figmentofmyass mentioned that I seem to be " underestimating how fast the 20ma is rising" , in fact the faster the SMA moves the bigger the gap the bigger the correction, the 20 SMA has already moved to fast and this explains why we need 35-40% correction.

TL;DR : I view critical moving averages like the 20 SMA as a debt which BTC has to pay , the sooner the debt is paid the less painful it is.

Interesting analysis, great to see something detailed on this board again!

As for something I've personally noticed, I've been looking at the 50 EMA on the daily (near $10k) and it seems that is now acting as some sort of resistance as we've touched it from below and dropped back under it. We've been above the 50 EMA for this entire run up and nothing's really come close to breaking under it until recently, though I'm not entirely sure how to interpret this besides it acting as resistance for now. I'm still remaining bullish on the whole though, as it seems bearish momentum has slowed down over the last several hours and we had a sweet bounce from $9k this morning. Could still be some more downside to this, but I took a very low leveraged long a few minutes after the bounce and I'm keeping the stop in profit for now in case we do have some more bearish momentum soon.

It is magic, have you watched magicmike? That is what I do, i freeze the price so i can sell my btc for 10% more than the average joe  .


As far as the part of me underestimating how fast the 20 sma moves you are right, but then it does not really matter given the fact that when someone plans to trade based on an MA ,exact price  shouldn't be set, one should monitor it once a week at weekly close.

The range I estimated was merely a shot in the dark based on how fast I think we moving.

Anyhow, this TA should serve as a positive one , as long as we don't close below the 20 sma it is always safer to bet long, i am personally not holding my breath waiting for sub 7k coz we might not get there, but at that range some high risk leverage positions will sure be a great idea.

Also keep in mind that a pull-back to the 20 sma must come pretty soon, more on this to come  .....

Yes, it seems that the bleeding some stop today, price goes on 5 digits again but we don't know who far this recovery will go or this is just another bull trap. Well who wouldn't want to see the price goes on $7000? Another golden opportunity to stash more BTC and then just ride the wave. But I'm not seeing another pull, but for experience traders, they already have plans for any momentum shifts.

But for noobs, this will also be another test for them and see how can they stand specially seeing the price goes down from $13000-$9000. So let's see and just hope that everything will be on our favor.

interesting chart compared to the original timestamp. the chart shows price at $10.8k but the price was in the low $9000s at that time. it's like magic!


i'm glad so many analysts expect sub-$7500 and even down to $6k. not gonna happen IMO. bears are always too greedy. i think you are underestimating how fast the 20ma is rising, and also discounting the possibility that we take our sweet time reaching it.