Date : 21st November 2019.
Equities continue lower ahead of ECB – 21st November 2019.
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Equities continue lower ahead of ECB – Stock markets head south on trade deal doubts, while a risk-off, or at least a risk-wary sentiment looks likely to prevail, which could keep safe-haven currencies, primarily the JPY and USD, underpinned, The high beta currencies such as the Dollar bloc and many developing-world currencies are under pressure.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Topic: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News. - page 26. (Read 32319 times)
Date : 20th November 2019.
FX Update – 20th November 2019.
EURUSD, H1
The Dollar and Yen have firmed up amid a risk-off turn in global markets as tensions between the US and China bubble up. The US Senate yesterday passed a bill in support of Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protesters, to which Beijing responded sharply, accusing Washington of being ignorant of “facts and truths” while threatening retaliation for interfering with what it sees as its internal affairs. This comes with little sign of the long since tabled, and unambitious, “Phase 1” partial trade deal coming to fruition. Sources cited by Reuters report that US President Trump is wanting deeper concessions from China in return for making a full roll back of tariffs and cancelling additional tariffs scheduled to take effect on 15 December.
Against this backdrop, the Yen has seen its risk premium rise, albeit moderately so. USDJPY ebbed to a six-day low at 108.35, with the Japanese currency outperforming an otherwise firm Dollar. EURJPY posted a six-day low, and other Yen crosses also declined. The narrow trade-weighted USD Index printed a two-day high at 97.93, putting in some distance from the 15-day low seen on Monday at 97.68. EURUSD concurrently saw a two-day low at 1.1055, and Cable a three-day low at 1.2888, with last night’s General Election debate seen as a “draw” but with the Conservatives coming under criticism for misleading the public after it rebranded one of its Twitter accounts to “factcheckUK”.
Sharp declines in oil prices, where concerns of a supply glut have run into concerns about the US-China situation, have driven underperformance in the Canadian Dollar, lifting USDCAD to a near six-week high at 1.3296. The pair is up nearly 1% from yesterday’s lows. USOil futures have dropped by 4% over the last two days, yesterday posting the biggest one-day tumble in seven weeks and testing $55.00. The Australian and New Zealand Dollars are also lower, though by a lesser extent, and most developing-nation currencies are softer.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX Update – 20th November 2019.
EURUSD, H1
The Dollar and Yen have firmed up amid a risk-off turn in global markets as tensions between the US and China bubble up. The US Senate yesterday passed a bill in support of Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protesters, to which Beijing responded sharply, accusing Washington of being ignorant of “facts and truths” while threatening retaliation for interfering with what it sees as its internal affairs. This comes with little sign of the long since tabled, and unambitious, “Phase 1” partial trade deal coming to fruition. Sources cited by Reuters report that US President Trump is wanting deeper concessions from China in return for making a full roll back of tariffs and cancelling additional tariffs scheduled to take effect on 15 December.
Against this backdrop, the Yen has seen its risk premium rise, albeit moderately so. USDJPY ebbed to a six-day low at 108.35, with the Japanese currency outperforming an otherwise firm Dollar. EURJPY posted a six-day low, and other Yen crosses also declined. The narrow trade-weighted USD Index printed a two-day high at 97.93, putting in some distance from the 15-day low seen on Monday at 97.68. EURUSD concurrently saw a two-day low at 1.1055, and Cable a three-day low at 1.2888, with last night’s General Election debate seen as a “draw” but with the Conservatives coming under criticism for misleading the public after it rebranded one of its Twitter accounts to “factcheckUK”.
Sharp declines in oil prices, where concerns of a supply glut have run into concerns about the US-China situation, have driven underperformance in the Canadian Dollar, lifting USDCAD to a near six-week high at 1.3296. The pair is up nearly 1% from yesterday’s lows. USOil futures have dropped by 4% over the last two days, yesterday posting the biggest one-day tumble in seven weeks and testing $55.00. The Australian and New Zealand Dollars are also lower, though by a lesser extent, and most developing-nation currencies are softer.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 18th November 2019.
Events to Look Out For Next Week 18th November 2019.
* Welcome to our weekly agenda, our briefing on all the key financial events globally. The week ahead is expected to reveal a healthy housing sector in the US, while Canadian data could clear the way for BoC. Eurozone’s PMI are also on tab.
Monday – 18 November 2019
* ECB Financial Stability Review (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Financial Stability Review provides an overview of potential risks to financial stability in the Euro Area.
Tuesday – 19 November 2019
* Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The RBA minutes, similar to the ECB Reports, provide a detailed assessment of the bank’s most recent policy-setting meeting, containing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the rate decision. They are usually a cause for FX turbulence.
* Housing starts and Building Permits (USD, GMT 13:30) – The September decline in starts reflected weakness in multi-family components, mainly led in the Northeast and Midwest, alongside small declines in the south and west. Permits have shown a solid growth path through Q3 alongside strength in starts, suggesting a likely solid path for both measures through Q4. Housing starts should rebound to a 1.285 mln pace in October, after the dip in September. Permits similarly are expected to rebound to 1.370 mln in October.
Wednesday – 20 November 2019
* Interest Rate Decision (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The PBoC is not expected to change its interest rates, at 4.2%.
* Inflation Report Hearings (GBP, GMT N/A) –The BOE Governor and several MPC members testify on inflation and the economic outlook before the Parliament’s Treasury Committee.
* Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 13:30) – The Canadian CPI for October is expected to have come out higher than last month, at 2.1% from 1.9% in September, after the 0.1% dip in August, as declines in gasoline prices and tuition costs weighed. The CPI added to the backing for no change in rates from the BoC in October.
* Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 19:00) – The FOMC Minutes report provides the FOMC Members’ opinions regarding the US economic outlook and any views regarding future rate changes.
Thursday- 21 November 2019
* ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR, GMT 1:30) –The ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, similar to the FOMC minutes, provide information with regards to the policymakers’ rationale behind their decisions. In the last ECB meeting, ECB kept policy settings on hold at Draghi’s last meeting, as widely expected after the comprehensive easing package announced in September.
* Philly Fed Index (USD, GMT 13:30) – The Philly Fed index is seen rising to 7.0 from 5.6 in October, versus a 1-year high of 21.8 in July and a 33-month low of -4.1 in February. The “soft data” measures have largely stabilized since June around moderate levels, though with a headline from the UAW-GM strike in recent months that seemed to have impacted some surveys but not others. The trade war headwind may subside somewhat in November, though the markets still face a wide array of troubles abroad.
Friday – 22 November 2019
* Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 07:00) – German Q3 GDP expanded 0.1% q/q – boosted by consumption. Germany not just missed a technical recession, the economy actually expanded slightly in the third quarter, as Q2 was revised down. However, we expect no turnaround yet for the final Q3 GDP, despite the higher headline rate, as the balance of risks remains tilted to the downside.
* Markit Services and Composite PMIs (EUR, GMT 08:30-09:00) – The prelim. EU Markit PMI Indices are expected to continue above 50, but slightly decline to 51.9 and 50.3 respectively, according to consensus expectations. As for Manufacturing PMI, in November a slight improvement is expected at 46.0, even though the headline rate remains in contraction territory.
* Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Retail Sales are forecasted to have registered a flat outcome in Canada, after mild declines of 0.1% in August.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Events to Look Out For Next Week 18th November 2019.
* Welcome to our weekly agenda, our briefing on all the key financial events globally. The week ahead is expected to reveal a healthy housing sector in the US, while Canadian data could clear the way for BoC. Eurozone’s PMI are also on tab.
Monday – 18 November 2019
* ECB Financial Stability Review (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Financial Stability Review provides an overview of potential risks to financial stability in the Euro Area.
Tuesday – 19 November 2019
* Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The RBA minutes, similar to the ECB Reports, provide a detailed assessment of the bank’s most recent policy-setting meeting, containing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the rate decision. They are usually a cause for FX turbulence.
* Housing starts and Building Permits (USD, GMT 13:30) – The September decline in starts reflected weakness in multi-family components, mainly led in the Northeast and Midwest, alongside small declines in the south and west. Permits have shown a solid growth path through Q3 alongside strength in starts, suggesting a likely solid path for both measures through Q4. Housing starts should rebound to a 1.285 mln pace in October, after the dip in September. Permits similarly are expected to rebound to 1.370 mln in October.
Wednesday – 20 November 2019
* Interest Rate Decision (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The PBoC is not expected to change its interest rates, at 4.2%.
* Inflation Report Hearings (GBP, GMT N/A) –The BOE Governor and several MPC members testify on inflation and the economic outlook before the Parliament’s Treasury Committee.
* Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 13:30) – The Canadian CPI for October is expected to have come out higher than last month, at 2.1% from 1.9% in September, after the 0.1% dip in August, as declines in gasoline prices and tuition costs weighed. The CPI added to the backing for no change in rates from the BoC in October.
* Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 19:00) – The FOMC Minutes report provides the FOMC Members’ opinions regarding the US economic outlook and any views regarding future rate changes.
Thursday- 21 November 2019
* ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR, GMT 1:30) –The ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, similar to the FOMC minutes, provide information with regards to the policymakers’ rationale behind their decisions. In the last ECB meeting, ECB kept policy settings on hold at Draghi’s last meeting, as widely expected after the comprehensive easing package announced in September.
* Philly Fed Index (USD, GMT 13:30) – The Philly Fed index is seen rising to 7.0 from 5.6 in October, versus a 1-year high of 21.8 in July and a 33-month low of -4.1 in February. The “soft data” measures have largely stabilized since June around moderate levels, though with a headline from the UAW-GM strike in recent months that seemed to have impacted some surveys but not others. The trade war headwind may subside somewhat in November, though the markets still face a wide array of troubles abroad.
Friday – 22 November 2019
* Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 07:00) – German Q3 GDP expanded 0.1% q/q – boosted by consumption. Germany not just missed a technical recession, the economy actually expanded slightly in the third quarter, as Q2 was revised down. However, we expect no turnaround yet for the final Q3 GDP, despite the higher headline rate, as the balance of risks remains tilted to the downside.
* Markit Services and Composite PMIs (EUR, GMT 08:30-09:00) – The prelim. EU Markit PMI Indices are expected to continue above 50, but slightly decline to 51.9 and 50.3 respectively, according to consensus expectations. As for Manufacturing PMI, in November a slight improvement is expected at 46.0, even though the headline rate remains in contraction territory.
* Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Retail Sales are forecasted to have registered a flat outcome in Canada, after mild declines of 0.1% in August.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 14th November 2019.
USD holds firm; JPY up; AUD & CAD down 14th November 2019.
Both the Dollar and Yen have continued to hold firm against most other currencies amid a backdrop of sputtering global stock markets.
AUD: The Australian Dollar dove following the release of Australia’s October employment report, which showed the unemployment rate ticking higher, to 5.3% from 5.2%. China’s industrial production growth also slowed sharply in October, to 4.7% y/y verses the median forecast for 5.4% growth, with investment growth falling to a record low. Chinese sales also underwhelmed, while preliminary Japanese Q3 GDP disappointed with growth of just 0.1% q/q, with a 0.7% q/q drop in exports shining a light on the impact of trade protectionism.
The Australian dollar dove by over 0.5%, driving AUDUSD to a one-month low at 0.6795, and the AUDNZD cross to a 10-week low, at 1.0625, which coincides with the 20-week SMA. The cross has declined by nearly 2% since the RBNZ unexpectedly refrained from cutting interest rates yesterday. A cross today below the 1.0625 could suggest further fall for the medium term, with next Support at the confluence of 50% Fib. and the 200-day SMA, at 1.0560.
EUR: On a brighter note, German Q3 GDP came in at 0.1% versus the 0.0% median forecast, though Q2 growth was revised lower. The data still helped the Euro lift moderately. EURUSD climbed back above 1.1000 after earlier carving out a fresh one-month low at 1.0994.
YEN: The Yen remained underpinned by safe-haven positioning, albeit moderate. USDJPY printed a nine-day low at 108.62, while both EURJPY and AUDJPY hit new 1-month lows, with both now amid a fifth consecutive day of decline.
CAD: USDCAD is amid a third consecutive week of ascent, and has remained buoyant after printing a 5-month peak at 1.3268 yesterday. The high extended the pronounced gains the pairing has seen since the release of Canada’s October employment report last Friday, which disappointed and caused a reappraisal in BoC monetary policy expectations. At the same time, USOIL prices have turned flat-to-softer following a 1-month up phase, removing what had been a supportive rug from under the Canadian Dollar’s feet. For now, USDCAD looks likely to remain upwardly biased, with the next Resistance at September’s peak, 1.3310, and at October’s 2 consecutive fractals at 1.3345. Support levels are set at 200-day SMA and 50-day SMA.
EURCAD: The EURCAD on the other hand, presents a continues slip pf Euro against Loonie. Intraday, the asset forms a triangle since October 25. The support around 1.4554 and 1.4520 is a key gauge that if gives way would open the lows around 1.4420-1.4450. The RSI moving around 50 and MACD lines at neutral suggesting consolidation in the short term. In the medium term meanwhile, the overall outlook remains neutral to positive, while if market holds above 1.4570-1.4580, it would be a confirmation that positive bias is strengthening, with the next daily Resistance area, 1.4670-1.4700.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
USD holds firm; JPY up; AUD & CAD down 14th November 2019.
Both the Dollar and Yen have continued to hold firm against most other currencies amid a backdrop of sputtering global stock markets.
AUD: The Australian Dollar dove following the release of Australia’s October employment report, which showed the unemployment rate ticking higher, to 5.3% from 5.2%. China’s industrial production growth also slowed sharply in October, to 4.7% y/y verses the median forecast for 5.4% growth, with investment growth falling to a record low. Chinese sales also underwhelmed, while preliminary Japanese Q3 GDP disappointed with growth of just 0.1% q/q, with a 0.7% q/q drop in exports shining a light on the impact of trade protectionism.
The Australian dollar dove by over 0.5%, driving AUDUSD to a one-month low at 0.6795, and the AUDNZD cross to a 10-week low, at 1.0625, which coincides with the 20-week SMA. The cross has declined by nearly 2% since the RBNZ unexpectedly refrained from cutting interest rates yesterday. A cross today below the 1.0625 could suggest further fall for the medium term, with next Support at the confluence of 50% Fib. and the 200-day SMA, at 1.0560.
EUR: On a brighter note, German Q3 GDP came in at 0.1% versus the 0.0% median forecast, though Q2 growth was revised lower. The data still helped the Euro lift moderately. EURUSD climbed back above 1.1000 after earlier carving out a fresh one-month low at 1.0994.
YEN: The Yen remained underpinned by safe-haven positioning, albeit moderate. USDJPY printed a nine-day low at 108.62, while both EURJPY and AUDJPY hit new 1-month lows, with both now amid a fifth consecutive day of decline.
CAD: USDCAD is amid a third consecutive week of ascent, and has remained buoyant after printing a 5-month peak at 1.3268 yesterday. The high extended the pronounced gains the pairing has seen since the release of Canada’s October employment report last Friday, which disappointed and caused a reappraisal in BoC monetary policy expectations. At the same time, USOIL prices have turned flat-to-softer following a 1-month up phase, removing what had been a supportive rug from under the Canadian Dollar’s feet. For now, USDCAD looks likely to remain upwardly biased, with the next Resistance at September’s peak, 1.3310, and at October’s 2 consecutive fractals at 1.3345. Support levels are set at 200-day SMA and 50-day SMA.
EURCAD: The EURCAD on the other hand, presents a continues slip pf Euro against Loonie. Intraday, the asset forms a triangle since October 25. The support around 1.4554 and 1.4520 is a key gauge that if gives way would open the lows around 1.4420-1.4450. The RSI moving around 50 and MACD lines at neutral suggesting consolidation in the short term. In the medium term meanwhile, the overall outlook remains neutral to positive, while if market holds above 1.4570-1.4580, it would be a confirmation that positive bias is strengthening, with the next daily Resistance area, 1.4670-1.4700.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 13th November 2019.
Trading The Kathy Lien “Waiting For The Deal” & “Fader” Strategies | 12 November 2019 13th November 2019.
[IMG]
Two intraday techniques that aim to identify opportunities for traders to capture the initial directional intraday real move of the market. According to Kathy Lien, with these strategies you are looking to wait for the noise in the markets to settle down and to trade the real market price action afterward.
In this webinar, you will learn about:
• Timing
• Trading Price Action
• Fading the Move
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Trading The Kathy Lien “Waiting For The Deal” & “Fader” Strategies | 12 November 2019 13th November 2019.
[IMG]
Two intraday techniques that aim to identify opportunities for traders to capture the initial directional intraday real move of the market. According to Kathy Lien, with these strategies you are looking to wait for the noise in the markets to settle down and to trade the real market price action afterward.
In this webinar, you will learn about:
• Timing
• Trading Price Action
• Fading the Move
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 11th November 2019.
Events to Look Out For Next Week 11th November 2019.
* Important events are coming up this week, with UK, China and US inflation and GDP releases.
Monday – 11 November 2019
* Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 09:30) – UK growth has “slowed materially” this year due to Brexit uncertainty and global trade wars. September forecasts see GDP growth steady, while the preliminary outcome for Q3 is anticipated to slow down.
Tuesday – 12 November 2019
* ILO & Average Earnings Index 3m/y (GBP, GMT 09:30) – UK Earnings with the bonus-excluded figure are seen unchanged at 3.8% y/y in the three months to September. UK ILO unemployment is expected steady at 3.9%.
* ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Economic Sentiment for November is projected at -22.7 from the -22.8 seen last month, as the current conditions indicator for Germany turned negative. The overall Eurozone reading though is expected to decline slightly further to -32.5 from -23.5. A lower than expected outcome ties in with the stagnation in market sentiment.
Wednesday – 13 November 2019
* Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference (NZD, GMT 01:00) – The RBNZ is widely expected to proceed with a 25 bp cut to 0.75% as it continues to ease policy amid the slowing in growth. However, it will be interesting to see whether RBNZ will signal further easing in contrast with the latest encouraging economic data.
* Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The UK CPI is expected to rebound to a 1.8% y/y rate in October after dipping to 1.7% in September and August from 2.1% in July.
* Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 0.3% October headline CPI rise is anticipated with a 0.2% core price increase, following respective September readings of flat and 0.1%. As-expected gains would result in a headline y/y increase of 1.7% for a third consecutive month, just as core prices rise 2.4% y/y for a third consecutive month. An up-tilt in y/y gains into Q1 of 2020 is expected due to harder comparisons and some lift from tariff increases that should leave gains in the 2.4% area, which may help ease concerns about persistent inflation undershoots of the Fed’s 2% objective.
* Powell’s 2-day Testimony (USD, GMT 16:00) – Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before Congress, providing a broad overview of the economy and monetary policy.
Thursday- 14 November 2019
* Employment Data (AUD, GMT 00:30) – While the unemployment rate is expected to have increase at 5.3% in October, employment change is expected to have stabilized, at 15K compared to 14.7K last month.
* Retail Sales ex Fuel (GBP, GMT 09:30) – UK Retail Sales are expected to have dipped with a -0.9% ex-auto figure on a m/m basis.
* Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 13:30) – Eurozone Q3 GDP growth held steady at 0.2% q/q – a better than expected report that highlighted once again that it is a mistake to reduce the Eurozone economy to the German manufacturing sector alone. The same outcome is expected on Thursday as well, at 0.2% q/q for Eurozone preliminary reading.
Friday – 15 November 2019
* Retail Sales (USD, GMT 14:30) – A 0.4% October gains for both the retail sales headline and the ex-auto figures have been estimated, following a -0.3% September headline dip with a -0.1% ex-auto figure. Gasoline prices should give a boost to retail activity given an estimated 4% increase for the CPI gasoline index. Unit vehicle sales should ease in October with a dip to an estimated 17.0 mln pace from 17.2 mln in September. Real consumer spending is expected to grow at a 2.6% rate in Q4, following the 2.9% Q3 clip.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Events to Look Out For Next Week 11th November 2019.
* Important events are coming up this week, with UK, China and US inflation and GDP releases.
Monday – 11 November 2019
* Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 09:30) – UK growth has “slowed materially” this year due to Brexit uncertainty and global trade wars. September forecasts see GDP growth steady, while the preliminary outcome for Q3 is anticipated to slow down.
Tuesday – 12 November 2019
* ILO & Average Earnings Index 3m/y (GBP, GMT 09:30) – UK Earnings with the bonus-excluded figure are seen unchanged at 3.8% y/y in the three months to September. UK ILO unemployment is expected steady at 3.9%.
* ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Economic Sentiment for November is projected at -22.7 from the -22.8 seen last month, as the current conditions indicator for Germany turned negative. The overall Eurozone reading though is expected to decline slightly further to -32.5 from -23.5. A lower than expected outcome ties in with the stagnation in market sentiment.
Wednesday – 13 November 2019
* Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference (NZD, GMT 01:00) – The RBNZ is widely expected to proceed with a 25 bp cut to 0.75% as it continues to ease policy amid the slowing in growth. However, it will be interesting to see whether RBNZ will signal further easing in contrast with the latest encouraging economic data.
* Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The UK CPI is expected to rebound to a 1.8% y/y rate in October after dipping to 1.7% in September and August from 2.1% in July.
* Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 0.3% October headline CPI rise is anticipated with a 0.2% core price increase, following respective September readings of flat and 0.1%. As-expected gains would result in a headline y/y increase of 1.7% for a third consecutive month, just as core prices rise 2.4% y/y for a third consecutive month. An up-tilt in y/y gains into Q1 of 2020 is expected due to harder comparisons and some lift from tariff increases that should leave gains in the 2.4% area, which may help ease concerns about persistent inflation undershoots of the Fed’s 2% objective.
* Powell’s 2-day Testimony (USD, GMT 16:00) – Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before Congress, providing a broad overview of the economy and monetary policy.
Thursday- 14 November 2019
* Employment Data (AUD, GMT 00:30) – While the unemployment rate is expected to have increase at 5.3% in October, employment change is expected to have stabilized, at 15K compared to 14.7K last month.
* Retail Sales ex Fuel (GBP, GMT 09:30) – UK Retail Sales are expected to have dipped with a -0.9% ex-auto figure on a m/m basis.
* Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 13:30) – Eurozone Q3 GDP growth held steady at 0.2% q/q – a better than expected report that highlighted once again that it is a mistake to reduce the Eurozone economy to the German manufacturing sector alone. The same outcome is expected on Thursday as well, at 0.2% q/q for Eurozone preliminary reading.
Friday – 15 November 2019
* Retail Sales (USD, GMT 14:30) – A 0.4% October gains for both the retail sales headline and the ex-auto figures have been estimated, following a -0.3% September headline dip with a -0.1% ex-auto figure. Gasoline prices should give a boost to retail activity given an estimated 4% increase for the CPI gasoline index. Unit vehicle sales should ease in October with a dip to an estimated 17.0 mln pace from 17.2 mln in September. Real consumer spending is expected to grow at a 2.6% rate in Q4, following the 2.9% Q3 clip.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 08th November 2019.
FX Action | 08th November 2019.
EUR: Retests 50-day SMA
Asset:EURUSD 1.1048
Daily bias: Ranging intraday sentiment
Week’s Range: 1.1026 – 1.1058
* EURUSD has been playing a narrow range near 1.1050, above the 23-month low seen yesterday at 1.1036. The pair is showing a net loss of just over 1% from week-ago levels, coming after the surprisingly strong US jobs report of last Friday, and followed-up this week by decent non-manufacturing ISM and initial jobless claims data.A sputtering Eurozone economy has been put into relatively sharp contrast by data showing the U.S. economy to be in finer fettle than many were fearing, while the CME’s FedWatch Tool is showing market pricing to have factored in decreasing probability for a rate cut at the December FOMC, with only 5% down from 22% last week (before the October payrolls release).
* Overall, EURUSD holds in a bearish outlook. EURUSD has been amid a bear trend that’s been unfolding since early 2018, from levels around 1.2500 and it is just abreath away from breaking the 50-day SMA. A close today below the latter could seen the retest of 1.1000 and 1.0970 levels.
* The trend has coincided with the 10-year T-note versus 10-year Bund yield differential having narrowed from 278 bps to the current 216 bps.
JPY: AUDJPY reverses gains
Asset: USDJPY 75.36
Daily bias: Bearish
Week’s Range: 74.73-75.80
* Narrow ranges have been seen so far today among the main currencies, which comes with a degree of uncertainty creeping back in with regard to the prospects of a “phase 1” trade deal being reached between the US and China. There are reports of fierce internal opposition among members of the Trump administration, while there is conjecture that President Trump will be emboldened by recent relatively strong U.S. data releases and the record highs on Wall Street and will be apt to take a tough stance against Beijing. This has seen Asian stock markets turn softer.
* USDJPY, after scaling to a 5-month high at 109.48, has settled around 109.20-30, while has currently return northwards again. AUDJPY, which has been an outperformer amid the recent risk-on phase (showing a 7.4% gain at prevailing levels from late-August lows), has also settled lower after printing a 3-month peak yesterday. It is currently retest the midpoint of yesterday’s rally. A confirm move below the latter at the top of the ahour, along with the RSI below 50 suggest the increase of negative bias and therefore a possible retest of 74.90-74.98 ( 61.8% Fib and 200-period SMA) or even lower at the S1 of the day, i.e. 74.73. The strengthening of negative bias is also presented by the lower Bollinger bands which are extending southwards.
CAD: Remains buoyant
Spot: USDCAD 1.3171
Weekly bias: Bearish
Week’s Range: 1.3118 – 1.3230
USDCAD has remained buoyant after posting a 9-day high yesterday at 1.3197. The high has come with the US 10-year over Canadian 10-year yield spread having been trending wider, overall, over the last three weeks, rising from about 19 bp to 29 bp, which has offset a moderate rise in oil prices over this period (oil prices have been trending sideways, within about a $13 range, over the last five months).
USDCAD USDCAD earlier in the week printed a 1-week low at 1.3015 before rebounding. Taking a couple of steps back, USDCAD is near to the midpoint of the range that’s been seen over the last 4-plus years, and there presently doesn’t look to be much potential for this pattern to break. The focus today falls on Canada’s October employment report. From the technical perspective, the asset has broke a significant Resistance level at 1.3195, which represents the 50-day EMA and the 6 day’s high. This along with the positive configuration of RSI suggest that we could seen further upside for the day. ENxt Resistance levels are at 1.3213 and 1.3230 (200-day EMA). Support is at the PP and the low of the day , i.e 1.3170-1.3176.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX Action | 08th November 2019.
EUR: Retests 50-day SMA
Asset:EURUSD 1.1048
Daily bias: Ranging intraday sentiment
Week’s Range: 1.1026 – 1.1058
* EURUSD has been playing a narrow range near 1.1050, above the 23-month low seen yesterday at 1.1036. The pair is showing a net loss of just over 1% from week-ago levels, coming after the surprisingly strong US jobs report of last Friday, and followed-up this week by decent non-manufacturing ISM and initial jobless claims data.A sputtering Eurozone economy has been put into relatively sharp contrast by data showing the U.S. economy to be in finer fettle than many were fearing, while the CME’s FedWatch Tool is showing market pricing to have factored in decreasing probability for a rate cut at the December FOMC, with only 5% down from 22% last week (before the October payrolls release).
* Overall, EURUSD holds in a bearish outlook. EURUSD has been amid a bear trend that’s been unfolding since early 2018, from levels around 1.2500 and it is just abreath away from breaking the 50-day SMA. A close today below the latter could seen the retest of 1.1000 and 1.0970 levels.
* The trend has coincided with the 10-year T-note versus 10-year Bund yield differential having narrowed from 278 bps to the current 216 bps.
JPY: AUDJPY reverses gains
Asset: USDJPY 75.36
Daily bias: Bearish
Week’s Range: 74.73-75.80
* Narrow ranges have been seen so far today among the main currencies, which comes with a degree of uncertainty creeping back in with regard to the prospects of a “phase 1” trade deal being reached between the US and China. There are reports of fierce internal opposition among members of the Trump administration, while there is conjecture that President Trump will be emboldened by recent relatively strong U.S. data releases and the record highs on Wall Street and will be apt to take a tough stance against Beijing. This has seen Asian stock markets turn softer.
* USDJPY, after scaling to a 5-month high at 109.48, has settled around 109.20-30, while has currently return northwards again. AUDJPY, which has been an outperformer amid the recent risk-on phase (showing a 7.4% gain at prevailing levels from late-August lows), has also settled lower after printing a 3-month peak yesterday. It is currently retest the midpoint of yesterday’s rally. A confirm move below the latter at the top of the ahour, along with the RSI below 50 suggest the increase of negative bias and therefore a possible retest of 74.90-74.98 ( 61.8% Fib and 200-period SMA) or even lower at the S1 of the day, i.e. 74.73. The strengthening of negative bias is also presented by the lower Bollinger bands which are extending southwards.
CAD: Remains buoyant
Spot: USDCAD 1.3171
Weekly bias: Bearish
Week’s Range: 1.3118 – 1.3230
USDCAD has remained buoyant after posting a 9-day high yesterday at 1.3197. The high has come with the US 10-year over Canadian 10-year yield spread having been trending wider, overall, over the last three weeks, rising from about 19 bp to 29 bp, which has offset a moderate rise in oil prices over this period (oil prices have been trending sideways, within about a $13 range, over the last five months).
USDCAD USDCAD earlier in the week printed a 1-week low at 1.3015 before rebounding. Taking a couple of steps back, USDCAD is near to the midpoint of the range that’s been seen over the last 4-plus years, and there presently doesn’t look to be much potential for this pattern to break. The focus today falls on Canada’s October employment report. From the technical perspective, the asset has broke a significant Resistance level at 1.3195, which represents the 50-day EMA and the 6 day’s high. This along with the positive configuration of RSI suggest that we could seen further upside for the day. ENxt Resistance levels are at 1.3213 and 1.3230 (200-day EMA). Support is at the PP and the low of the day , i.e 1.3170-1.3176.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 7th November 2019.
BoE seen on hold – Not interfering with politics 7th November 2019.
The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee announces the outcome of this week’s meeting today. The strong consensus is for no change, which would leave the repo rate at 0.75% and QE totals unchanged, though there is a chance that we’ll see dovish dissent amid the ranks of the nine-member committee, with members Saunders and Vlieghe having recently voiced concern about the damage that Brexit uncertainty is doing.
Most members look be preferring to remain on hold into the December general election. Both of the principal parties in the UK, the Conservatives and Labour, are pledging fiscal spending if they are elected, which won’t have gone unnoticed at the MPC.
The BoE will also release its quarterly Inflation Report, which isn’t expected to show much change to existing projections, although it is clear that the prolonged uncertainty is increasingly damaging the outlook and has already led to a sharp decline in investment. London markets are pricing in about 45% odds for a 25 bps rate cut by next May, and an 85% chance for such a move by the end of 2020.
Meanwhile….UK’s December Election on December 12!
The divided parliament finally threw in the towel and the UK is now heading for a general election on December 12 to try and break the deadlock on the Brexit front. It is a risky move for Johnson, who so far has been rejecting the advances of the Brexit party, which is campaigning for a no-deal scenario and if Johnson continues to hold out there is the risk that not just the anti-Brexit, but also the pro-Brexit vote will be split.
That means another split parliament cannot be ruled out and if the Brexit party were to gain a sizeable number of seats it would increase the pressure on Johnson to go ahead with a no-deal scenario.
In any case, Johnson has pledged to stick to the current time table for the transition period, which will give him just a year to get a trade deal with the EU wrapped up. Even if Johnson’s ambitions on that front are not as high as May’s this seems an impossibly short time to get a meaningful arrangement wrapped up. In any case, Johnson’s deal looks set to involve nothing like the “friction less” trade that U.K. manufacturers will be looking for and border checks will likely still disrupt supply chains across Europe.
And GBP Waiting for Brexit resolution
From month-ago levels, the Pound is the strongest performer out of the main currencies, up 5% against the Dollar and by over 6% versus the Euro. The gains reflect an unwinding in the Pound’s Brexit discount, with a Halloween no-deal Brexit scenario having been avoided.
The broad trade-weighted measure of the Pound is expected to retain at about a 8-9% discount relative to levels prevailing ahead of the July 2015 Brexit vote, which has been pared back from lows of 15%-plus. As the UK now finds itself with Brexit delayed for a second time and once again in a quagmire of political uncertainty, no significant unwinding is anticipating for Sterling’s Brexit discount as all options remain open with regard to how Brexit is resolved — ranging from no deal to Brexit cancelled, depending on the results of the December-12 general election and any referendum after the election.
Against this backdrop, the narrow trade-weighted USDIndex (DXY) has ebbed back by a fractional 0.1% after rallying by about 1% over the previous two days. EURUSD has settled just above the three-week low seen yesterday at 1.1063. Cable has lodged in the upper 1.2800s after failing to sustain gains above 1.2900. USDJPY is also softer, aided by a degree of Yen outperformance, which has seen EURJPY, AUDJPY and other yen crosses ebb back somewhat. USDJPY fell back below 109.0 after posting a one-week high yesterday at 109.25. The Australian Dollar and other dollar bloc currencies have also traded at softer levels after outperforming in recent sessions.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
BoE seen on hold – Not interfering with politics 7th November 2019.
The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee announces the outcome of this week’s meeting today. The strong consensus is for no change, which would leave the repo rate at 0.75% and QE totals unchanged, though there is a chance that we’ll see dovish dissent amid the ranks of the nine-member committee, with members Saunders and Vlieghe having recently voiced concern about the damage that Brexit uncertainty is doing.
Most members look be preferring to remain on hold into the December general election. Both of the principal parties in the UK, the Conservatives and Labour, are pledging fiscal spending if they are elected, which won’t have gone unnoticed at the MPC.
The BoE will also release its quarterly Inflation Report, which isn’t expected to show much change to existing projections, although it is clear that the prolonged uncertainty is increasingly damaging the outlook and has already led to a sharp decline in investment. London markets are pricing in about 45% odds for a 25 bps rate cut by next May, and an 85% chance for such a move by the end of 2020.
Meanwhile….UK’s December Election on December 12!
The divided parliament finally threw in the towel and the UK is now heading for a general election on December 12 to try and break the deadlock on the Brexit front. It is a risky move for Johnson, who so far has been rejecting the advances of the Brexit party, which is campaigning for a no-deal scenario and if Johnson continues to hold out there is the risk that not just the anti-Brexit, but also the pro-Brexit vote will be split.
That means another split parliament cannot be ruled out and if the Brexit party were to gain a sizeable number of seats it would increase the pressure on Johnson to go ahead with a no-deal scenario.
In any case, Johnson has pledged to stick to the current time table for the transition period, which will give him just a year to get a trade deal with the EU wrapped up. Even if Johnson’s ambitions on that front are not as high as May’s this seems an impossibly short time to get a meaningful arrangement wrapped up. In any case, Johnson’s deal looks set to involve nothing like the “friction less” trade that U.K. manufacturers will be looking for and border checks will likely still disrupt supply chains across Europe.
And GBP Waiting for Brexit resolution
From month-ago levels, the Pound is the strongest performer out of the main currencies, up 5% against the Dollar and by over 6% versus the Euro. The gains reflect an unwinding in the Pound’s Brexit discount, with a Halloween no-deal Brexit scenario having been avoided.
The broad trade-weighted measure of the Pound is expected to retain at about a 8-9% discount relative to levels prevailing ahead of the July 2015 Brexit vote, which has been pared back from lows of 15%-plus. As the UK now finds itself with Brexit delayed for a second time and once again in a quagmire of political uncertainty, no significant unwinding is anticipating for Sterling’s Brexit discount as all options remain open with regard to how Brexit is resolved — ranging from no deal to Brexit cancelled, depending on the results of the December-12 general election and any referendum after the election.
Against this backdrop, the narrow trade-weighted USDIndex (DXY) has ebbed back by a fractional 0.1% after rallying by about 1% over the previous two days. EURUSD has settled just above the three-week low seen yesterday at 1.1063. Cable has lodged in the upper 1.2800s after failing to sustain gains above 1.2900. USDJPY is also softer, aided by a degree of Yen outperformance, which has seen EURJPY, AUDJPY and other yen crosses ebb back somewhat. USDJPY fell back below 109.0 after posting a one-week high yesterday at 109.25. The Australian Dollar and other dollar bloc currencies have also traded at softer levels after outperforming in recent sessions.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 6th November 2019.
USD still in the driving seat 6th November 2019.
USDJPY, H1
The Dollar has been consolidating gains seen yesterday, which had been driven by more strong October data (non-manufacturing ISM, which backed up last week’s surprisingly solid employment report) and hopes a partial trade deal with China will be struck. The risk-on vibe that was coursing through global markets in the wake of last Friday’s US payrolls data has come off the boil, with the valuations of many major equity indices looking rich amid a degree of circumspection creeping in with regard to whether the 13th round of trade talks between the US and China will produce a deal. The key USA500 actually closed in negative territory yesterday although it is currently trading up and testing the daily pivot point at 3078.
Against this backdrop, the narrow trade-weighted USDIndex (DXY) has ebbed back by a fractional 0.1% after rallying by about 1% over the previous two days. EURUSD has settled just above the three-week low seen yesterday at 1.1063. Cable has lodged in the upper 1.2800s after failing to sustain gains above 1.2900. USDJPY is also softer, aided by a degree of Yen outperformance, which has seen EURJPY, AUDJPY and other yen crosses ebb back somewhat. USDJPY fell back below 109.0 after posting a one-week high yesterday at 109.25. The Australian Dollar and other dollar bloc currencies have also traded at softer levels after outperforming in recent sessions.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
USD still in the driving seat 6th November 2019.
USDJPY, H1
The Dollar has been consolidating gains seen yesterday, which had been driven by more strong October data (non-manufacturing ISM, which backed up last week’s surprisingly solid employment report) and hopes a partial trade deal with China will be struck. The risk-on vibe that was coursing through global markets in the wake of last Friday’s US payrolls data has come off the boil, with the valuations of many major equity indices looking rich amid a degree of circumspection creeping in with regard to whether the 13th round of trade talks between the US and China will produce a deal. The key USA500 actually closed in negative territory yesterday although it is currently trading up and testing the daily pivot point at 3078.
Against this backdrop, the narrow trade-weighted USDIndex (DXY) has ebbed back by a fractional 0.1% after rallying by about 1% over the previous two days. EURUSD has settled just above the three-week low seen yesterday at 1.1063. Cable has lodged in the upper 1.2800s after failing to sustain gains above 1.2900. USDJPY is also softer, aided by a degree of Yen outperformance, which has seen EURJPY, AUDJPY and other yen crosses ebb back somewhat. USDJPY fell back below 109.0 after posting a one-week high yesterday at 109.25. The Australian Dollar and other dollar bloc currencies have also traded at softer levels after outperforming in recent sessions.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 05th November 2019.
FX Action | 05th November 2019.
EUR: Limited rally?
Asset:EURUSD 1.1129
Weekly bias: Bearish
Week’s Range: 1.1097 – 1.1200
* A no-deal Brexit avoided theme has given both the Euro and Pound a lift lately, though the possibility for a no-deal further down the track remains on the cards, while the protracted political uncertainty in the UK is having a deleterious economic on both sides of the Channel. The ECB is also taking a dovish tilt with Christine Lagarde having taken up the reins. On the dollar side of the balance, with regard to EURUSD, markets are anticipating US non-manufacturing survey data for October, due later today, to rebound from the 3-year low seen in September. This would follow the strong US October jobs report (despite the General Motors strike) and the backdrop of the Fed’s three precautionary rate cuts.
* EURUSD printed a 6-day low at 1.1112 in what is now the pair’s fourth day trading on a 1.11 handle. The pair has been losing upside momentum after rallying out of sub-1.0900 levels in early October. The Euro has seen signs of weakness against other currencies, although EURJPY has been buoyed by Yen trade yesterday.Against a sputtering Eurozone economy and a dovish ECB, the upside potential of EURUSD should be kept in check. In the long-term pair still classified as being amid a down trend that’s been unfolding since early 2018, from levels around 1.2500. The trend has coincided with the 10-year Bund yield dropping from levels over 0.70% to the prevailing -0.325 % yield (a -0.739% low was seen in early September).
JPY: Looking northwards despite risk-on mode
Asset: USDJPY 108.80
Weekly bias: Bullish
Week’s Range: 107.76 – 109.27
* The Yen continued on a softening tack into the EUropean session amid a backdrop of continued risk-on positioning in global markets, which have seen sovereign bonds come under pressure and stock markets rally. Maintaining investor spirits were the PBoC cutting its 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate by 5 bps for the first time since early 2016, and an FT report that the Trump administration was considering removing some tariffs on Chinese goods, which is something that Reuters sources have been saying Beijing has been pushing for.
* USDJPY rose to a 5-day high at 108.88. EURJPY and AUDJPY also made respective 5-day peaks, at 121.12 and 75.18, and other Yen crosses gained. AUDJPY lifted by over 0.5%, drawing back in on the 3-month high seen last week at 75.29. Positive sentiment for USDJPY holds in the medium picture, as the asset holds above 20- and 50-Day SMA, with momentum indicators positively configured. Hence the intraday decline remains a temporary correction on the 3-day rally.
GBP: Struggling to hold above 1.2900
Asset: GBPUSD 1.2904
Weekly bias: Neutral
Week’s Range: 1.2800-1.2980
* A no-deal Brexit avoided theme has given Pound a lift lately, though the possibility for a no-deal further down the track remains on the cards, while the protracted political uncertainty in the UK is having a deleterious economic on both sides of the Channel.
* The Pound stuck at 1.2900 (mid 3-week range) after making up the fourth week out of the last five where a higher high has been set. From month-ago levels, the Pound is the strongest performer out of the main currencies, up 5% against the Dollar and by over 6% versus the Euro, reflecting an unwinding in the pound’s Brexit discount, with a Halloween no-deal Brexit scenario having been avoided.
CAD: Remains heavy
Spot: USDCAD 1.3124
Weekly bias: Bearish
Week’s Range: 1.3075 – 1.3200
* USDCAD has remained heavy, today matching the 6-day low that was seen yesterday at 1.3130, with the Canadian dollar being floated by a backdrop of coursing risk appetite in global markets, similar to the other Dollar bloc currencies, which has offset the jump in US yields following the strong US jobs data on Friday.
* Taking a step back, USDCAD is near to the midpoint of the range that’s been seen over the last 4-plus years.
AUD: Remains on bid
Asset: AUDUSD 0.6917
Weekly bias: Neutral to Bullish
Week’s Range: 0.6770- 0.6945
* AUDJPY is the biggest gainer on the day so far, showing a rise of 0.9% at prevailing levels. The cross has printed a three-week high at 75.40. AUDUSD has concurrently rallied by over 0.6%, coming within of the three-week peak that was seen last week, at 0.6929.
*The Aussie Dollar is also showing outperformance form month-ago levels, with only sterling having been stronger out of the main currencies over this period. The currency has a relatively high beta characteristic, and is widely seen as a liquid currency proxy of China, which accounts for over a third of the total demand for Australian commodity exports, and has therefore acted in a true to form manner amid the recent upward scaling in global stock markets. The main three US indices hit new record peaks yesterday, while Asian and European markets have rallied to fresh major-trend highs today.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX Action | 05th November 2019.
EUR: Limited rally?
Asset:EURUSD 1.1129
Weekly bias: Bearish
Week’s Range: 1.1097 – 1.1200
* A no-deal Brexit avoided theme has given both the Euro and Pound a lift lately, though the possibility for a no-deal further down the track remains on the cards, while the protracted political uncertainty in the UK is having a deleterious economic on both sides of the Channel. The ECB is also taking a dovish tilt with Christine Lagarde having taken up the reins. On the dollar side of the balance, with regard to EURUSD, markets are anticipating US non-manufacturing survey data for October, due later today, to rebound from the 3-year low seen in September. This would follow the strong US October jobs report (despite the General Motors strike) and the backdrop of the Fed’s three precautionary rate cuts.
* EURUSD printed a 6-day low at 1.1112 in what is now the pair’s fourth day trading on a 1.11 handle. The pair has been losing upside momentum after rallying out of sub-1.0900 levels in early October. The Euro has seen signs of weakness against other currencies, although EURJPY has been buoyed by Yen trade yesterday.Against a sputtering Eurozone economy and a dovish ECB, the upside potential of EURUSD should be kept in check. In the long-term pair still classified as being amid a down trend that’s been unfolding since early 2018, from levels around 1.2500. The trend has coincided with the 10-year Bund yield dropping from levels over 0.70% to the prevailing -0.325 % yield (a -0.739% low was seen in early September).
JPY: Looking northwards despite risk-on mode
Asset: USDJPY 108.80
Weekly bias: Bullish
Week’s Range: 107.76 – 109.27
* The Yen continued on a softening tack into the EUropean session amid a backdrop of continued risk-on positioning in global markets, which have seen sovereign bonds come under pressure and stock markets rally. Maintaining investor spirits were the PBoC cutting its 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate by 5 bps for the first time since early 2016, and an FT report that the Trump administration was considering removing some tariffs on Chinese goods, which is something that Reuters sources have been saying Beijing has been pushing for.
* USDJPY rose to a 5-day high at 108.88. EURJPY and AUDJPY also made respective 5-day peaks, at 121.12 and 75.18, and other Yen crosses gained. AUDJPY lifted by over 0.5%, drawing back in on the 3-month high seen last week at 75.29. Positive sentiment for USDJPY holds in the medium picture, as the asset holds above 20- and 50-Day SMA, with momentum indicators positively configured. Hence the intraday decline remains a temporary correction on the 3-day rally.
GBP: Struggling to hold above 1.2900
Asset: GBPUSD 1.2904
Weekly bias: Neutral
Week’s Range: 1.2800-1.2980
* A no-deal Brexit avoided theme has given Pound a lift lately, though the possibility for a no-deal further down the track remains on the cards, while the protracted political uncertainty in the UK is having a deleterious economic on both sides of the Channel.
* The Pound stuck at 1.2900 (mid 3-week range) after making up the fourth week out of the last five where a higher high has been set. From month-ago levels, the Pound is the strongest performer out of the main currencies, up 5% against the Dollar and by over 6% versus the Euro, reflecting an unwinding in the pound’s Brexit discount, with a Halloween no-deal Brexit scenario having been avoided.
CAD: Remains heavy
Spot: USDCAD 1.3124
Weekly bias: Bearish
Week’s Range: 1.3075 – 1.3200
* USDCAD has remained heavy, today matching the 6-day low that was seen yesterday at 1.3130, with the Canadian dollar being floated by a backdrop of coursing risk appetite in global markets, similar to the other Dollar bloc currencies, which has offset the jump in US yields following the strong US jobs data on Friday.
* Taking a step back, USDCAD is near to the midpoint of the range that’s been seen over the last 4-plus years.
AUD: Remains on bid
Asset: AUDUSD 0.6917
Weekly bias: Neutral to Bullish
Week’s Range: 0.6770- 0.6945
* AUDJPY is the biggest gainer on the day so far, showing a rise of 0.9% at prevailing levels. The cross has printed a three-week high at 75.40. AUDUSD has concurrently rallied by over 0.6%, coming within of the three-week peak that was seen last week, at 0.6929.
*The Aussie Dollar is also showing outperformance form month-ago levels, with only sterling having been stronger out of the main currencies over this period. The currency has a relatively high beta characteristic, and is widely seen as a liquid currency proxy of China, which accounts for over a third of the total demand for Australian commodity exports, and has therefore acted in a true to form manner amid the recent upward scaling in global stock markets. The main three US indices hit new record peaks yesterday, while Asian and European markets have rallied to fresh major-trend highs today.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 4th November 2019.
Events to Look Out For Next Week 4th November 2019.
* The week starts light again, with Eurozone Manufacturing PMI and the new ECB president Lagarde speech on Monday, followed by RBA rate statement and New Zealand’s jobs report on Tuesday. Bank of England dominates the week as the highly uncertain election campaign begun.
Monday – 04 November 2019
* Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 08:55) – The German October Manufacturing PMI held steady at 41.9, with Germany’s manufacturing sector still firmly in recession. This picture is likely to be seen confirmed in the final readings for October.
Tuesday – 05 November 2019
* RBA Interest Rate Decision (AUD, GMT 03:30) – The RBA minutes from the September policy meeting, showed that the central bank remains disposed to further easing. However in the October minutes, Governor Lowe suggested that the Bank is not in a hurry to lower rates asap.
* ISM Non – Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to rise to 54.0 in October from 52.6 in September and a prior 19-month low of 56.1 in March, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September of last year.
* Labour Market Data (NZD, GMT 21:45) – The Final reading for Q3 employment change is expected to show further negative labor reports. the unemployment rate is anticipated at 4.0% from 3.9%, while participation rate is seen rising at 70.9%.
Wednesday – 06 November 2019
* Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Retail sales moved up 0.3% m/m in August, a partial rebound from the -0.5% m/m decline in the previous month. However, in September the latest slowdown in labour market could keep overall consumption underpinned in the third quarter. The September Retail sales are seen at 0.1% m/m.
Thursday- 07 November 2019
* Event of the week – BoE Interest Rate Decision and MPC Vote (GBP, GMT 12:00) – The BoE at the last meeting already indicated that even if uncertainty persists it may need to act to prop up the economy and the upcoming November meeting will bring the BoE’s quarterly updates on growth and inflation. It will come amid a still muddy picture on the Brexit front and just ahead of a general election, so central bankers may be weary of being accused of interfering in the political process if they lean too much out of the window on the Brexit front.
Friday – 08 November 2019
* Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Total employment grew 53.7k in September after the 81.1k surge in August, leaving two months of robust jobs growth that came in well above expectations. The unemployment rate fell to 5.5% in September from 5.7% in August. For October, the unemployment rate is expected to rise at 5.7% while participation rate should remain unchanged.
* Michigan Sentiment (USD, GMT 15:00) – The preliminary US consumer sentiment for November is forecast at 94.7, 0.8 points below the final in October.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Events to Look Out For Next Week 4th November 2019.
* The week starts light again, with Eurozone Manufacturing PMI and the new ECB president Lagarde speech on Monday, followed by RBA rate statement and New Zealand’s jobs report on Tuesday. Bank of England dominates the week as the highly uncertain election campaign begun.
Monday – 04 November 2019
* Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 08:55) – The German October Manufacturing PMI held steady at 41.9, with Germany’s manufacturing sector still firmly in recession. This picture is likely to be seen confirmed in the final readings for October.
Tuesday – 05 November 2019
* RBA Interest Rate Decision (AUD, GMT 03:30) – The RBA minutes from the September policy meeting, showed that the central bank remains disposed to further easing. However in the October minutes, Governor Lowe suggested that the Bank is not in a hurry to lower rates asap.
* ISM Non – Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to rise to 54.0 in October from 52.6 in September and a prior 19-month low of 56.1 in March, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September of last year.
* Labour Market Data (NZD, GMT 21:45) – The Final reading for Q3 employment change is expected to show further negative labor reports. the unemployment rate is anticipated at 4.0% from 3.9%, while participation rate is seen rising at 70.9%.
Wednesday – 06 November 2019
* Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Retail sales moved up 0.3% m/m in August, a partial rebound from the -0.5% m/m decline in the previous month. However, in September the latest slowdown in labour market could keep overall consumption underpinned in the third quarter. The September Retail sales are seen at 0.1% m/m.
Thursday- 07 November 2019
* Event of the week – BoE Interest Rate Decision and MPC Vote (GBP, GMT 12:00) – The BoE at the last meeting already indicated that even if uncertainty persists it may need to act to prop up the economy and the upcoming November meeting will bring the BoE’s quarterly updates on growth and inflation. It will come amid a still muddy picture on the Brexit front and just ahead of a general election, so central bankers may be weary of being accused of interfering in the political process if they lean too much out of the window on the Brexit front.
Friday – 08 November 2019
* Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Total employment grew 53.7k in September after the 81.1k surge in August, leaving two months of robust jobs growth that came in well above expectations. The unemployment rate fell to 5.5% in September from 5.7% in August. For October, the unemployment rate is expected to rise at 5.7% while participation rate should remain unchanged.
* Michigan Sentiment (USD, GMT 15:00) – The preliminary US consumer sentiment for November is forecast at 94.7, 0.8 points below the final in October.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 30th October 2019.
The Q3 Earnings Season – APPLE 30th October 2019.
Apple Inc. (APPLE), wherein iPhone has been its flagship product for more than 10 years, is scheduled to report its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2019 after the US market closes on Wednesday, October 30, 2019. Apple is currently the world’s largest company with a market capital value $ 1.126 trillion. Apple is among the so-called FAANG stocks. FAANG is a group of internet and tech stocks: Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google.
Fundamental
The company recently released its latest line of iconic iPhone11 (September) as well as MacBook products last July. The investors’ expectation is low for the quarter given the fall of the iPhone sales. The investors are interested to see the impact of the iPhone 11 sales to the quarter, even though it only counted 10 days before end of quarter (Iphone11 only hit the shelves only on September 20).
Majority of analyst forecast a flat revenue at ~$62 billion which is similar to $62.9 billion posted a year ago. The earning per share is expected at $2.84, down from $2.91 last year. The gross margin is expected at the range between 37.5% and 38.5% (similar to last year). AAPL’s overall fiscal 2019 revenue is projected to dip 2.7% to $258.43 billion, after FY18’s sales surged 16%, with FY17 up 6.3%.
Technical
Apple’s stock has been on the bull run, reaching new all-time record high closing prices $248.66 (28th October close). Apple stock has risen by 70% in 2019. Currently, the momentum is still on the upside as risk-on sentiment surges on the back of positive news of President Trump expecting to sign trade deal with China.
Currently, APPLE share is trading at $248.66. From a technical standpoint, the bull candlestick is dominant with no presence of bearish possibility, it currently trades at top channel of Bollinger band. The immediate support is at 20 1H MA (also a mid-Bollinger band) at $245.50, followed by resistance that became support area at $244. 50 1H MA is at $244 as the following support. The 2018 highest price is at $233.20.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Tunku Ishak Al-Irsyad
Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Malaysia
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
The Q3 Earnings Season – APPLE 30th October 2019.
Apple Inc. (APPLE), wherein iPhone has been its flagship product for more than 10 years, is scheduled to report its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2019 after the US market closes on Wednesday, October 30, 2019. Apple is currently the world’s largest company with a market capital value $ 1.126 trillion. Apple is among the so-called FAANG stocks. FAANG is a group of internet and tech stocks: Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google.
Fundamental
The company recently released its latest line of iconic iPhone11 (September) as well as MacBook products last July. The investors’ expectation is low for the quarter given the fall of the iPhone sales. The investors are interested to see the impact of the iPhone 11 sales to the quarter, even though it only counted 10 days before end of quarter (Iphone11 only hit the shelves only on September 20).
Majority of analyst forecast a flat revenue at ~$62 billion which is similar to $62.9 billion posted a year ago. The earning per share is expected at $2.84, down from $2.91 last year. The gross margin is expected at the range between 37.5% and 38.5% (similar to last year). AAPL’s overall fiscal 2019 revenue is projected to dip 2.7% to $258.43 billion, after FY18’s sales surged 16%, with FY17 up 6.3%.
Technical
Apple’s stock has been on the bull run, reaching new all-time record high closing prices $248.66 (28th October close). Apple stock has risen by 70% in 2019. Currently, the momentum is still on the upside as risk-on sentiment surges on the back of positive news of President Trump expecting to sign trade deal with China.
Currently, APPLE share is trading at $248.66. From a technical standpoint, the bull candlestick is dominant with no presence of bearish possibility, it currently trades at top channel of Bollinger band. The immediate support is at 20 1H MA (also a mid-Bollinger band) at $245.50, followed by resistance that became support area at $244. 50 1H MA is at $244 as the following support. The 2018 highest price is at $233.20.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Tunku Ishak Al-Irsyad
Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Malaysia
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 25th October 2019.
Gold sparkles on UK Elections risk 25th October 2019.
[IMG]
Gold sparkles on UK Elections risk – Gold above 1505, USD overall steady, GBP up from lows seen yesterday, while JPY is retaining soft tone. The EU, meanwhile, will reportedly delay their official response to the UK extension from today to Monday or Tuesday next week.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Gold sparkles on UK Elections risk 25th October 2019.
[IMG]
Gold sparkles on UK Elections risk – Gold above 1505, USD overall steady, GBP up from lows seen yesterday, while JPY is retaining soft tone. The EU, meanwhile, will reportedly delay their official response to the UK extension from today to Monday or Tuesday next week.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 24th October 2019.
Sterling, Extension and Election Polls 24th October 2019.
[IMG]
Everyone concerned is presently waiting on the EU to grant the UK an extension in the Brexit deadline from October 31. The Irish PM along with some EU heavy weights have made public their backing for an extension, out to January 31, though this will have to be agreed by all of the EU27 member states.
The widespread expectation is that they will, which is why Sterling is not crashing presently, as a refusal would risk a no-deal Brexit scenario at month end. UK PM Johnson met with opposition leader Corbyn earlier to discuss a timetable for ratifying the Brexit deal, with Parliament having voted to reject the government’s program bill to fast-track the legislative process. They failed to reach an agreement.
Johnson has stated that the government can’t go on and that he will call for a general election in the event EU permits a 3-month extension. He needs 2/3 of MPs to support this, being an out-of-cycle election.
As for Labour, some political pundits are surprised that the party isn’t pushing for a second referendum on EU membership rather than a general election given its poor standing in polling.
Overall, the most likely scenario from here is that the EU formally permits an extension and a UK general election is staged by early December.
In the currency market, Cable has recouped above 1.2900 level since New York session yesterday. According to ING, bulls could hope that Cable is going to make a massive rally through to 1.40.
“We see a Cable move to 1.40 being too much of a stretch this year – and if it were to happen it would probably involve us and the market massively under-estimating the size of the squeeze in short UK positions – those positions including equities, where fund managers have been underweight UK equities since 2014.”
[IMG]
UK polling ahead of likely general election.
Politico’s poll of polls shows PM Johnson’s Conservative Party to be out in front with 35% support.
The Brexit Party, which favours nothing but a “clean” — aka “no deal” (given the Northern Ireland border problem) — Brexit, are running with 11% support. Should the two form a coalition, their combined support is 46%.The Labour Party has 25% support.
The Liberal Democrats are in third spot with 18% support — a combined support with Labour, of 43% in a hypothetical coalition, less than the Tory-Brexit total.
As for other parties, the Green Party has 5% and Scotland’s SNP has 3%. It should be stressed that the Conservatives have been ruling out forming an alliance or coalition with the Brexit Party, fearing it would cost the votes of the not-so-hardline Brexit supporters, while the Liberal Democrats have also been saying that they couldn’t contemplate a coalition with Labour while Jeremy Corbyn is their leader, who is unpopular and widely blamed for the historical low-polling that his party has been seeing, and who would put off politically homeless pro-EU Tory voters from shifting their way.
With the election likely to boil down to a shootout between pro-Brexit and pro-EU sides, what the Tory and Brexit parties will be fearing most are voting pacts between Labour, Liberal Democrats, Greens, Plaid Cymru (of Wales) and the SNP, whereby they would tactically withdraw candidates from contesting seats on a seat-by-seat basis in a way that would prevent splitting the anti-Tory Party/anti-Brexit Party vote.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Sterling, Extension and Election Polls 24th October 2019.
[IMG]
Everyone concerned is presently waiting on the EU to grant the UK an extension in the Brexit deadline from October 31. The Irish PM along with some EU heavy weights have made public their backing for an extension, out to January 31, though this will have to be agreed by all of the EU27 member states.
The widespread expectation is that they will, which is why Sterling is not crashing presently, as a refusal would risk a no-deal Brexit scenario at month end. UK PM Johnson met with opposition leader Corbyn earlier to discuss a timetable for ratifying the Brexit deal, with Parliament having voted to reject the government’s program bill to fast-track the legislative process. They failed to reach an agreement.
Johnson has stated that the government can’t go on and that he will call for a general election in the event EU permits a 3-month extension. He needs 2/3 of MPs to support this, being an out-of-cycle election.
As for Labour, some political pundits are surprised that the party isn’t pushing for a second referendum on EU membership rather than a general election given its poor standing in polling.
Overall, the most likely scenario from here is that the EU formally permits an extension and a UK general election is staged by early December.
In the currency market, Cable has recouped above 1.2900 level since New York session yesterday. According to ING, bulls could hope that Cable is going to make a massive rally through to 1.40.
“We see a Cable move to 1.40 being too much of a stretch this year – and if it were to happen it would probably involve us and the market massively under-estimating the size of the squeeze in short UK positions – those positions including equities, where fund managers have been underweight UK equities since 2014.”
[IMG]
UK polling ahead of likely general election.
Politico’s poll of polls shows PM Johnson’s Conservative Party to be out in front with 35% support.
The Brexit Party, which favours nothing but a “clean” — aka “no deal” (given the Northern Ireland border problem) — Brexit, are running with 11% support. Should the two form a coalition, their combined support is 46%.The Labour Party has 25% support.
The Liberal Democrats are in third spot with 18% support — a combined support with Labour, of 43% in a hypothetical coalition, less than the Tory-Brexit total.
As for other parties, the Green Party has 5% and Scotland’s SNP has 3%. It should be stressed that the Conservatives have been ruling out forming an alliance or coalition with the Brexit Party, fearing it would cost the votes of the not-so-hardline Brexit supporters, while the Liberal Democrats have also been saying that they couldn’t contemplate a coalition with Labour while Jeremy Corbyn is their leader, who is unpopular and widely blamed for the historical low-polling that his party has been seeing, and who would put off politically homeless pro-EU Tory voters from shifting their way.
With the election likely to boil down to a shootout between pro-Brexit and pro-EU sides, what the Tory and Brexit parties will be fearing most are voting pacts between Labour, Liberal Democrats, Greens, Plaid Cymru (of Wales) and the SNP, whereby they would tactically withdraw candidates from contesting seats on a seat-by-seat basis in a way that would prevent splitting the anti-Tory Party/anti-Brexit Party vote.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 22nd October 2019.
FX Action | 22nd October 2019.
[IMG]
Commodity currencies posted fresh highs while the Yen retained a softening bias amid a backdrop of rising global equity markets following upbeat rhetoric from both the US and Chinese officials.
Q3 corporate earnings have so far been positive, albeit with expectations having been guided lower in the run in to the show-and-tell season.
AUDUSD posted a two-month high at 0.6682,AUDJPY a 12-week high, while NZDUSD ascended into one-month high territory. NZDUSD continues to support an overall bullish outlook after the formation of inverse head and shoulders pattern. It is currently retests 8-week Resistance which is close to 38.2% Fib. level since July’s peak. A move above the latter could strengthen the outlook, with next level to be watched at 50% Fib. , at 0.6500. Support is seta t 0.6350-0.6350.
[IMG]
USDCAD, meanwhile, has printed a 3-month low at 1.3071. The pair is down by about 1% form week-ago levels, and is showing just over a 4% decline on the year-to-date. This follows what is now a three consecutive weeks of underperformance. A recovery in global risk appetite (much reduced no-deal Brexit risk, cancellation of planned U.S. December tariff hikes on Chinese goods) has helped underpin the Canadian Dollar, and other commodity-correlating currencies.
[IMG] On the domestic scene, Canadian PM Trudeau’s Liberals are set to form a minority government after a tight election yesterday, though they will have to rely on the left-leaning NDP party to govern, which wants to raise corporate income tax rates and implement a wealth tax, and opposes the Trans Mountain oil pipeline project, which is seen as negatives from the perspective of financial markets.
Elsewhere, EURUSD, after coming under pressure yesterday in the wake of printing a 2-month high at 1.1179, settled in the mid 1.1100s. The Euro is showing net gains of around 1% against both the Dollar and Yen from week-ago levels, with markets having pretty much unwound the perceived risk for there being a no-deal Brexit scenario on October 31. Currently it reversed lower at 1.1144, while it remains choppy so far, bouncing between 1.1133-1.1160 area.
GBPUSD has settled in the mid 1.2900s after yesterday posting a 5-month high at 1.3012. The pair is up by nearly 9% from the major-trend lows seen in early September. Regarding Brexit, the UK’s Parliament will today start voting on the legislation for PM Johnson’s divorce deal. This needs to pass at the first go if Brexit is going to happen on October 31. Once the deal has been fully ratified it would still remain subject to the “meaningful vote.”
The opposition are scheming to either amend the deal so that there is an all-UK customs arrangement, which is unlikely to have sufficient support, and to made the Brexit deal subject to a “confirmatory” referendum, which looks unlikely to pass, though not an impossibility.
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX Action | 22nd October 2019.
[IMG]
Commodity currencies posted fresh highs while the Yen retained a softening bias amid a backdrop of rising global equity markets following upbeat rhetoric from both the US and Chinese officials.
Q3 corporate earnings have so far been positive, albeit with expectations having been guided lower in the run in to the show-and-tell season.
AUDUSD posted a two-month high at 0.6682,AUDJPY a 12-week high, while NZDUSD ascended into one-month high territory. NZDUSD continues to support an overall bullish outlook after the formation of inverse head and shoulders pattern. It is currently retests 8-week Resistance which is close to 38.2% Fib. level since July’s peak. A move above the latter could strengthen the outlook, with next level to be watched at 50% Fib. , at 0.6500. Support is seta t 0.6350-0.6350.
[IMG]
USDCAD, meanwhile, has printed a 3-month low at 1.3071. The pair is down by about 1% form week-ago levels, and is showing just over a 4% decline on the year-to-date. This follows what is now a three consecutive weeks of underperformance. A recovery in global risk appetite (much reduced no-deal Brexit risk, cancellation of planned U.S. December tariff hikes on Chinese goods) has helped underpin the Canadian Dollar, and other commodity-correlating currencies.
[IMG] On the domestic scene, Canadian PM Trudeau’s Liberals are set to form a minority government after a tight election yesterday, though they will have to rely on the left-leaning NDP party to govern, which wants to raise corporate income tax rates and implement a wealth tax, and opposes the Trans Mountain oil pipeline project, which is seen as negatives from the perspective of financial markets.
Elsewhere, EURUSD, after coming under pressure yesterday in the wake of printing a 2-month high at 1.1179, settled in the mid 1.1100s. The Euro is showing net gains of around 1% against both the Dollar and Yen from week-ago levels, with markets having pretty much unwound the perceived risk for there being a no-deal Brexit scenario on October 31. Currently it reversed lower at 1.1144, while it remains choppy so far, bouncing between 1.1133-1.1160 area.
GBPUSD has settled in the mid 1.2900s after yesterday posting a 5-month high at 1.3012. The pair is up by nearly 9% from the major-trend lows seen in early September. Regarding Brexit, the UK’s Parliament will today start voting on the legislation for PM Johnson’s divorce deal. This needs to pass at the first go if Brexit is going to happen on October 31. Once the deal has been fully ratified it would still remain subject to the “meaningful vote.”
The opposition are scheming to either amend the deal so that there is an all-UK customs arrangement, which is unlikely to have sufficient support, and to made the Brexit deal subject to a “confirmatory” referendum, which looks unlikely to pass, though not an impossibility.
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 21st October 2019.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st October 2019.
[IMG]
The week ahead will definitely not be a quite one, with high anxiety on Brexit, the last ECB policy meeting before Mario draghi hand over the ECB presidency to Christine Lagarde and few significant US data prior FED on October 30.
Monday – 21 October 2019
Producer Price Index (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The German PPI is expected to drop to -0.2% for September. As expected readings would result in a y/y loss of 0.3% for headline PPI, versus a 0.3% pace for August.
Tuesday – 22 October 2019
Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canadian sales are expected to have increased by 0.6% m/m in August compared to 0.4% m/m in July, with the ex-autos component down -0.3%.
Existing Home Sales (USD, GMT 14:00) – Home sales have regained their status as an important indicator after the financial crisis and can have a strong effect on the markets. The release is expected to record a slight -0.2% pull-back in September to a 5.480 mln pace, after a bounce to 5.490 mln in August. In Q2, we saw an average sales pace of 5.287 mln, and we expect a better 5.463 mln pace in Q3.
Thursday – 24 October 2019
Services and Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 08:30-09:00) – September PMIs showed a marked contraction in manufacturing activity and a sharp slowdown in services sector growth. This picture is likely to be seen again in the preliminary readings for October, as German Manufacturing PMI has been forecast at 40 and composite at 49.2, which it is still below neutral. Meanwhile, Services PMI is expected to fall to 51.2. The overall Markit for Eurozone is seen at 49.4, signalling stagnation and highlighting the risk that the weakness in manufacturing sectors is spreading.
Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference (EUR, GMT 11:45 & 12:30) – The ECB is widely expected to keep policy settings on hold after Draghi’s parting shot at the last meeting. The outgoing president pushed through another deposit rate cut and an open ended asset purchase program against the opposition of some of the more senior national central bank heads and incoming president Lagarde will face the task of uniting the board and dealing with growing demands for a comprehensive revision of the ECB’s policy setting framework and in particular the inflation target. Draghi’s last press conference meanwhile will likely focus heavily on calls for fiscal measures to boost the economy in a challenging international environment.
Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to fall -1.8% in September, after gains of 0.2% in August, thanks to an expected transportation orders drop. Boeing orders rose to a still-lean 25 from 18 in August.
Services and Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – Preliminary Manufacturing are expected to slip in October, to 50.1 from 51.1, while Services PMIs are likely to rise to 51.3 from 50.9, indicating a slowdown in the sector that has been hit by global trade tensions.
Friday – 25 October 2019
German IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) – In September, the German IFO business confidence came in slightly higher than expected at 94.6. In October, however, the overall business climate reading is seen slightly lower at 94.4. The more forward looking expectations reading is anticipated at 91.8 from 90.8.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st October 2019.
[IMG]
The week ahead will definitely not be a quite one, with high anxiety on Brexit, the last ECB policy meeting before Mario draghi hand over the ECB presidency to Christine Lagarde and few significant US data prior FED on October 30.
Monday – 21 October 2019
Producer Price Index (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The German PPI is expected to drop to -0.2% for September. As expected readings would result in a y/y loss of 0.3% for headline PPI, versus a 0.3% pace for August.
Tuesday – 22 October 2019
Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canadian sales are expected to have increased by 0.6% m/m in August compared to 0.4% m/m in July, with the ex-autos component down -0.3%.
Existing Home Sales (USD, GMT 14:00) – Home sales have regained their status as an important indicator after the financial crisis and can have a strong effect on the markets. The release is expected to record a slight -0.2% pull-back in September to a 5.480 mln pace, after a bounce to 5.490 mln in August. In Q2, we saw an average sales pace of 5.287 mln, and we expect a better 5.463 mln pace in Q3.
Thursday – 24 October 2019
Services and Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 08:30-09:00) – September PMIs showed a marked contraction in manufacturing activity and a sharp slowdown in services sector growth. This picture is likely to be seen again in the preliminary readings for October, as German Manufacturing PMI has been forecast at 40 and composite at 49.2, which it is still below neutral. Meanwhile, Services PMI is expected to fall to 51.2. The overall Markit for Eurozone is seen at 49.4, signalling stagnation and highlighting the risk that the weakness in manufacturing sectors is spreading.
Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference (EUR, GMT 11:45 & 12:30) – The ECB is widely expected to keep policy settings on hold after Draghi’s parting shot at the last meeting. The outgoing president pushed through another deposit rate cut and an open ended asset purchase program against the opposition of some of the more senior national central bank heads and incoming president Lagarde will face the task of uniting the board and dealing with growing demands for a comprehensive revision of the ECB’s policy setting framework and in particular the inflation target. Draghi’s last press conference meanwhile will likely focus heavily on calls for fiscal measures to boost the economy in a challenging international environment.
Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to fall -1.8% in September, after gains of 0.2% in August, thanks to an expected transportation orders drop. Boeing orders rose to a still-lean 25 from 18 in August.
Services and Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – Preliminary Manufacturing are expected to slip in October, to 50.1 from 51.1, while Services PMIs are likely to rise to 51.3 from 50.9, indicating a slowdown in the sector that has been hit by global trade tensions.
Friday – 25 October 2019
German IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) – In September, the German IFO business confidence came in slightly higher than expected at 94.6. In October, however, the overall business climate reading is seen slightly lower at 94.4. The more forward looking expectations reading is anticipated at 91.8 from 90.8.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 14th October 2019.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th October 2019.
* No-deal Brexit risks are looking more real than ever, with reports suggesting that talks will officially break down this week ahead of the upcoming EU summit on 17 and 18 October. Elsewhere, further US data and Fedspeak could provide more clues about the possibility of a Fed rate cut.
Tuesday – 15 October 2019
* Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – September’s Chinese CPI is seen unchanged at 0.7% while the PPI figure is expected to decline further to -1.2%. The overall reading for CPI is estimated to post a gain up to 2.9% y/y.
* ILO & Average Earnings Index 3m/y (GBP, GMT 08:30) – UK Earnings with the bonus-excluded figure are expected to slip to 3.7% y/y in the three months to August, down from 3.8%y/y. UK ILO unemployment is expected steady at 3.8%, which was the lowest rate seen since December 1974.
* ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for October is projected at -27 from the -22.5 seen last month, as the current conditions indicator for Germany turned negative. The overall Eurozone reading though expected to declne further to -33.0 slightly from -22.4. A lower than expected outcome, ties in with the stagnation in market sentiment at the start of the month.
* Consumer Price Index (NZD, GMT 21:45) – One of the most important figures for FX markets, the y/y CPI for Q3 is expected to come out at 1.4%, compared to 1.7% in the previous quarter.
Wednesday – 16 October 2019
* Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The UK CPI is expected to rebound to a 1.8% y/y rate in September after dipping to 1.7% in August from 2.1% in July. Weakness in sterling from year-go levels should impact some offset to disinflationary forces.
* Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Euro Area CPI is expected to be confirmed at just 0.9% y/y in the final release for September, although the deceleration in the headline rate over the month was largely due to base effects from energy prices, with core inflation actually moving up to 1.0% y/y from 0.9% y/y in August.
* Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The Canadian CPI index is expected to have increased to 2%y/y compared to 1.9%y/y in August. The core CPI measures remained near 2.0%.
* Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) – Retail Sales are an important determinant of consumer spending thus making it a leading indicator for overall economic growth. Consensus expectations suggest that we should have increased by 0.2% in September, for both the retail sales headline and the ex-auto figure, following a 0.4% August headline rise with a flat ex-auto figure.
* Fedspeak: Fed Brainard (USD, GMT 19:00)
Thursday – 17 October 2019
* European Council Summit on Brexit
* Employment Data (AUD, GMT 01:30) – While the Unemployment Rate is projected to have flipped at 5.3% in September, Employment change is expected to have eased, increasing by 10K compared to 34.7K last month.
* Retail Sales ex Fuel (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Retail Sales in the UK are anticipated to increase in September, reaching 3.0% on a y/y basis, and 0.5% on a m/m basis, from the 2.7% and -0.2% respectively
* Housing Data and Building Permits (USD, GMT 12:30) – Housing starts should drop back to a 1.282 mln pace in September, after a sharp rise to a 1.364 mln clip in August with the help of lower mortgage rates. Permits similarly are expected to slow to 1.370 mln in September, after popping to 1.425 mln in September. Permits have shown a solid growth path into Q3 despite a July starts set-back.
* Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Philly Fed index is seen falling to 7.0 from 12.0 in September, versus a 1-year high of 21.8 in July and a 33-month low of -4.1 in February. The late-September producer sentiment surveys deteriorated significantly after firmness in the early-September reports, and the early-October data will be closely scrutinized to see if this pull-back continued. The “soft data” surveys are at risk of a possible impact from the UAW-GM strike, alongside the ongoing headwind from troubles abroad.
* Fedspeak: Fed Bowman and Fed Williams (USD, GMT 18:00 and 20:20)
Friday – 18 October 2019
* European Council Summit on Brexit
* China Gross Domestic Product (CNY, GMT 02:00)- Chinese GDP is projected to see additional moderation to a 6.1% y/y pace in Q3, from 6.2% in Q2.
* Industrial Production and Retail Sales (CNY, GMT 02:00) – The September industrial production is forecast at 4.5% y/y from 4.4% previously, while September retail sales likely improved to 7.7% y/y from 7.5%.
* Fedspeak: Fed Kaplan and Fed Clarida (USD, GMT 15:00 and 15:30)
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th October 2019.
* No-deal Brexit risks are looking more real than ever, with reports suggesting that talks will officially break down this week ahead of the upcoming EU summit on 17 and 18 October. Elsewhere, further US data and Fedspeak could provide more clues about the possibility of a Fed rate cut.
Tuesday – 15 October 2019
* Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – September’s Chinese CPI is seen unchanged at 0.7% while the PPI figure is expected to decline further to -1.2%. The overall reading for CPI is estimated to post a gain up to 2.9% y/y.
* ILO & Average Earnings Index 3m/y (GBP, GMT 08:30) – UK Earnings with the bonus-excluded figure are expected to slip to 3.7% y/y in the three months to August, down from 3.8%y/y. UK ILO unemployment is expected steady at 3.8%, which was the lowest rate seen since December 1974.
* ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for October is projected at -27 from the -22.5 seen last month, as the current conditions indicator for Germany turned negative. The overall Eurozone reading though expected to declne further to -33.0 slightly from -22.4. A lower than expected outcome, ties in with the stagnation in market sentiment at the start of the month.
* Consumer Price Index (NZD, GMT 21:45) – One of the most important figures for FX markets, the y/y CPI for Q3 is expected to come out at 1.4%, compared to 1.7% in the previous quarter.
Wednesday – 16 October 2019
* Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The UK CPI is expected to rebound to a 1.8% y/y rate in September after dipping to 1.7% in August from 2.1% in July. Weakness in sterling from year-go levels should impact some offset to disinflationary forces.
* Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Euro Area CPI is expected to be confirmed at just 0.9% y/y in the final release for September, although the deceleration in the headline rate over the month was largely due to base effects from energy prices, with core inflation actually moving up to 1.0% y/y from 0.9% y/y in August.
* Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The Canadian CPI index is expected to have increased to 2%y/y compared to 1.9%y/y in August. The core CPI measures remained near 2.0%.
* Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) – Retail Sales are an important determinant of consumer spending thus making it a leading indicator for overall economic growth. Consensus expectations suggest that we should have increased by 0.2% in September, for both the retail sales headline and the ex-auto figure, following a 0.4% August headline rise with a flat ex-auto figure.
* Fedspeak: Fed Brainard (USD, GMT 19:00)
Thursday – 17 October 2019
* European Council Summit on Brexit
* Employment Data (AUD, GMT 01:30) – While the Unemployment Rate is projected to have flipped at 5.3% in September, Employment change is expected to have eased, increasing by 10K compared to 34.7K last month.
* Retail Sales ex Fuel (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Retail Sales in the UK are anticipated to increase in September, reaching 3.0% on a y/y basis, and 0.5% on a m/m basis, from the 2.7% and -0.2% respectively
* Housing Data and Building Permits (USD, GMT 12:30) – Housing starts should drop back to a 1.282 mln pace in September, after a sharp rise to a 1.364 mln clip in August with the help of lower mortgage rates. Permits similarly are expected to slow to 1.370 mln in September, after popping to 1.425 mln in September. Permits have shown a solid growth path into Q3 despite a July starts set-back.
* Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Philly Fed index is seen falling to 7.0 from 12.0 in September, versus a 1-year high of 21.8 in July and a 33-month low of -4.1 in February. The late-September producer sentiment surveys deteriorated significantly after firmness in the early-September reports, and the early-October data will be closely scrutinized to see if this pull-back continued. The “soft data” surveys are at risk of a possible impact from the UAW-GM strike, alongside the ongoing headwind from troubles abroad.
* Fedspeak: Fed Bowman and Fed Williams (USD, GMT 18:00 and 20:20)
Friday – 18 October 2019
* European Council Summit on Brexit
* China Gross Domestic Product (CNY, GMT 02:00)- Chinese GDP is projected to see additional moderation to a 6.1% y/y pace in Q3, from 6.2% in Q2.
* Industrial Production and Retail Sales (CNY, GMT 02:00) – The September industrial production is forecast at 4.5% y/y from 4.4% previously, while September retail sales likely improved to 7.7% y/y from 7.5%.
* Fedspeak: Fed Kaplan and Fed Clarida (USD, GMT 15:00 and 15:30)
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 10th October 2019.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th October 2019.
FX News Today
* US yields corrected slightly from yesterday’s highs. Asian bond markets remained under pressure, while stock markets traded mixed with conflicting trade headlines making for a jumpy session.
* Bloomberg reported that the US is weighing to agree to a previously hammered out currency pact as a team of Chinese negotiators, including Vice Premier Liu He arrived in Washington.
* There were also reports in the US that the Trump administration will grant licences that would allow US firms to sell no sensitive supplies to Huawei.
* US stock futures are in red, with the headlines accompanying the trade talks, likely to keep markets volatile and jittery.
* GER30 and UK100 futures are slightly higher, though, with Brexit developments in focus as UK PM Johnson is travelling to Ireland in search for a breakthrough on the Irish border conundrum.
* German trade surplus declined as exports dropped -1.8% m/m in August.
* ECB’s Rehn plays down divisions at ECB, banks on Lagarde to heal the rift. The Governing Council member said the FT story that said Draghi ignored advice from his own officials to push through the restart of asset purchases was “greatly exaggerated”, adding that Lagarde’s team-building ability should help to bridge the splits at the council.
* The WTI future fell back to $52.54 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
Technician’s Corner
* EURUSD rally above 1.099 in the European open. The 1.1000 level remains key for EURUSD, with Wednesday marking the fifth consecutive session that EURUSD has tried and failed to break through the level. A decisive close above this level could strengthen the positive bias for EUR.
* USDJPY was a bit stronger through the Asia session, rallying to 107.76 highs, and remaining above the 107.40 since then. Better risk taking levels brought buyers in, as hopes for progress on the US/China trade war got a lift into Thursday’s high-level meetings in Washington. China said that it was open to a partial trade agreement. Given the history of the talks however, a smooth outcome is anything but guaranteed, and Yen bears will have to remain on their toes.
* USDCAD headed to 1.3310 down from Asian highs of 1.3344. The modest sell-off came as oil prices rallied on news there may be some progress on the US-China trade front. The 200-day moving average at 1.3288 remains a good support level, with the pairing holding above the level for nearly a week now. Further oil price gains could see a break though, with the next downside target being the 1.3260-70 region.
Main Macro Events Today
* Gross Domestic Product and Manufacturing Production (GBP, GMT 08:30) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. August’s GDP is expected to lower to 0% following the 0.3% reading from last month. Meanwhile, Industrial and Manufacturing Production will be out as well. These two indices are expected to have fallen, with both providing a downwards contribution of 0.1% m/m in August.
* ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR, GMT 11:30) – Event of the Week –The ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, similar to the FOMC minutes, provide information with regards to the policymakers’ rationale behind their decisions. In the last ECB meeting, ECB not only cut the deposit rate but also announced a new open-ended asset purchase program, worth EUR 20 bln a month, while removing the time frame in the rate guidance.
* Consumer Price Index ex Energy and Food (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Consumer Price Index is suggestive of how the economy is performing, with expectations standing flat for the September headline release. A 0.2% core price increase is expected, following respective August readings of 0.1% and 0.3%.
Support and Resistance levels
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th October 2019.
FX News Today
* US yields corrected slightly from yesterday’s highs. Asian bond markets remained under pressure, while stock markets traded mixed with conflicting trade headlines making for a jumpy session.
* Bloomberg reported that the US is weighing to agree to a previously hammered out currency pact as a team of Chinese negotiators, including Vice Premier Liu He arrived in Washington.
* There were also reports in the US that the Trump administration will grant licences that would allow US firms to sell no sensitive supplies to Huawei.
* US stock futures are in red, with the headlines accompanying the trade talks, likely to keep markets volatile and jittery.
* GER30 and UK100 futures are slightly higher, though, with Brexit developments in focus as UK PM Johnson is travelling to Ireland in search for a breakthrough on the Irish border conundrum.
* German trade surplus declined as exports dropped -1.8% m/m in August.
* ECB’s Rehn plays down divisions at ECB, banks on Lagarde to heal the rift. The Governing Council member said the FT story that said Draghi ignored advice from his own officials to push through the restart of asset purchases was “greatly exaggerated”, adding that Lagarde’s team-building ability should help to bridge the splits at the council.
* The WTI future fell back to $52.54 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
Technician’s Corner
* EURUSD rally above 1.099 in the European open. The 1.1000 level remains key for EURUSD, with Wednesday marking the fifth consecutive session that EURUSD has tried and failed to break through the level. A decisive close above this level could strengthen the positive bias for EUR.
* USDJPY was a bit stronger through the Asia session, rallying to 107.76 highs, and remaining above the 107.40 since then. Better risk taking levels brought buyers in, as hopes for progress on the US/China trade war got a lift into Thursday’s high-level meetings in Washington. China said that it was open to a partial trade agreement. Given the history of the talks however, a smooth outcome is anything but guaranteed, and Yen bears will have to remain on their toes.
* USDCAD headed to 1.3310 down from Asian highs of 1.3344. The modest sell-off came as oil prices rallied on news there may be some progress on the US-China trade front. The 200-day moving average at 1.3288 remains a good support level, with the pairing holding above the level for nearly a week now. Further oil price gains could see a break though, with the next downside target being the 1.3260-70 region.
Main Macro Events Today
* Gross Domestic Product and Manufacturing Production (GBP, GMT 08:30) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. August’s GDP is expected to lower to 0% following the 0.3% reading from last month. Meanwhile, Industrial and Manufacturing Production will be out as well. These two indices are expected to have fallen, with both providing a downwards contribution of 0.1% m/m in August.
* ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR, GMT 11:30) – Event of the Week –The ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, similar to the FOMC minutes, provide information with regards to the policymakers’ rationale behind their decisions. In the last ECB meeting, ECB not only cut the deposit rate but also announced a new open-ended asset purchase program, worth EUR 20 bln a month, while removing the time frame in the rate guidance.
* Consumer Price Index ex Energy and Food (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Consumer Price Index is suggestive of how the economy is performing, with expectations standing flat for the September headline release. A 0.2% core price increase is expected, following respective August readings of 0.1% and 0.3%.
Support and Resistance levels
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 9th October 2019.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th October 2019.
FX News Today
* European Outlook: Stock market sentiment remains very cautious with Brexit risks and signs of fresh US-Sino tensions ahead of this week’s trade talks weighing on confidence.
* Talks between the UK and the EU on trade are expected to officially break down this week, with “leaked” memos out of Westminster putting the blame firmly in the EU’s court and threatening those EU countries that support another delay of the Brexit date. UK PM Johnson is due to meet Irish Pm Varadkar later.
* Overnight – US-China relations stressed further as new visa restrictions by the US were introduced. Trade talks on going and high level contact still scheduled Thursday & Friday.
Equities markets fell 1.5% in the US and Nikkei has closed down 0.6%.
* USD keeps the bid due to safe haven status, even after a Dovish Powell hints at rate cut (s) and starting to repurchase assets again.
Charts of the Day
Technician’s Corner
* EURUSD pulled back to 1.0945 lows into the London close, after failing to decisively take out the key 1.1000 level over the past four sessions. US based accounts were sellers from near the open, stepping in over 1.0990. Safe-haven flows into Dollars and Treasuries were noted. Last Thursday’s 1.0940 low is the near term downside target, followed by Wednesday’s 1.0904 bottom. Trades on London open at 1.0960 pivot point.
* Cable Cable was crushed to one-month low of 1.2195 in N.Y. morning trade, down from London highs over 1.2300. The BBC cited a UK government source saying that Germany’s Merkel conveyed to PM Johnson that a deal based on his government’s proposals was “overwhelmingly unlikely.”. The development makes it a near certainty that Johnson won’t have a deal by the October-19 deadline set out in the newly created parliamentary bill that would require the prime minister to ask the EU for an extension in Brexit to January 31.
Main Macro Events Today
* JOLTS Job Openings (USD, GMT 14:00) – JOLTS define Job Openings as all positions that have not be filled on the last business day of the month. July’s JOLTS job openings came out at 7.217M.
* FOMC Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) – The FOMC Minutes report provides the FOMC Members’ opinions regarding the US economic outlook and any views regarding future rate hikes. FOMC trimmed rates 25 bps, as expected, but with 3 dissents. In the last FOMC statement, on July 31 decision showed mixed views, two dissents for steady policy, two participants who wanted 50 bps in cuts and several wanted steady stance.
Support and Resistance levels
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th October 2019.
FX News Today
* European Outlook: Stock market sentiment remains very cautious with Brexit risks and signs of fresh US-Sino tensions ahead of this week’s trade talks weighing on confidence.
* Talks between the UK and the EU on trade are expected to officially break down this week, with “leaked” memos out of Westminster putting the blame firmly in the EU’s court and threatening those EU countries that support another delay of the Brexit date. UK PM Johnson is due to meet Irish Pm Varadkar later.
* Overnight – US-China relations stressed further as new visa restrictions by the US were introduced. Trade talks on going and high level contact still scheduled Thursday & Friday.
Equities markets fell 1.5% in the US and Nikkei has closed down 0.6%.
* USD keeps the bid due to safe haven status, even after a Dovish Powell hints at rate cut (s) and starting to repurchase assets again.
Charts of the Day
Technician’s Corner
* EURUSD pulled back to 1.0945 lows into the London close, after failing to decisively take out the key 1.1000 level over the past four sessions. US based accounts were sellers from near the open, stepping in over 1.0990. Safe-haven flows into Dollars and Treasuries were noted. Last Thursday’s 1.0940 low is the near term downside target, followed by Wednesday’s 1.0904 bottom. Trades on London open at 1.0960 pivot point.
* Cable Cable was crushed to one-month low of 1.2195 in N.Y. morning trade, down from London highs over 1.2300. The BBC cited a UK government source saying that Germany’s Merkel conveyed to PM Johnson that a deal based on his government’s proposals was “overwhelmingly unlikely.”. The development makes it a near certainty that Johnson won’t have a deal by the October-19 deadline set out in the newly created parliamentary bill that would require the prime minister to ask the EU for an extension in Brexit to January 31.
Main Macro Events Today
* JOLTS Job Openings (USD, GMT 14:00) – JOLTS define Job Openings as all positions that have not be filled on the last business day of the month. July’s JOLTS job openings came out at 7.217M.
* FOMC Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) – The FOMC Minutes report provides the FOMC Members’ opinions regarding the US economic outlook and any views regarding future rate hikes. FOMC trimmed rates 25 bps, as expected, but with 3 dissents. In the last FOMC statement, on July 31 decision showed mixed views, two dissents for steady policy, two participants who wanted 50 bps in cuts and several wanted steady stance.
Support and Resistance levels
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 8th October 2019.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th October 2019.
FX News Today
* German industrial production better than expected at 0.3% m/m. The unexpected expansion in August comes despite ongoing contraction in orders and a deterioration in business sentiment.
* European Outlook: European stock markets closed with broad gains, despite mounting signs that U.K. PM Johnson is positioning for a failure in Brexit talks with the EU, which shouldn’t come as a surprise, but makes the risk of a no-deal scenario ever more tangible as Johnson lays the ground for a “people-versus-parliament” election. European stock futures are moving higher in tandem with U.S. futures after a positive session in Asia.
* World Bank warns Brexit, European recession will hit world growth; The head of the World Bank warned global growth could come in lower than the 2.6% predicted in June amid “Brexit, Europe’s recession and trade uncertainty”.
Charts of the Day
Technician’s Corner
* EURUSD traded sideways through the NY morning session, ranging between 1.0982 and near two-week highs of 1.1000, in the Asian session the pair fell back to 1.0966. The Dollar overall appears to be showing signs of peaking, with incoming U.S. data last week showing significant indications of economic slowing. Europe has its own growth issues as well of course, though with markets pricing in another Fed rate cut at the end of October, EURUSD may have some room to run to the upside in the coming sessions.
* USDJPY topped at 107.07 in US session following comments from White House advisor Kudlow, who said that a US-China deal was possible and negotiators could make progress this week, and Washington is open to looking at China’s proposals. The comments came after China over the weekend indicated it is not open to a broad scale trade agreement. USD strength continued overnight with the pair touching 107.44.
Main Macro Events Today
* Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Headline PPI is expected to drop at -0.2% for September, with a 0.2% rise in the core index. As expected readings would result in a y/y gain of 1.5% for headline PPI, versus a 1.8% pace of August. We see y/y headline readings in a 1.0%-2.3% range over coming months, while core prices should oscillate in a 2.0%-2.5% range.
Support and Resistance levels
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th October 2019.
FX News Today
* German industrial production better than expected at 0.3% m/m. The unexpected expansion in August comes despite ongoing contraction in orders and a deterioration in business sentiment.
* European Outlook: European stock markets closed with broad gains, despite mounting signs that U.K. PM Johnson is positioning for a failure in Brexit talks with the EU, which shouldn’t come as a surprise, but makes the risk of a no-deal scenario ever more tangible as Johnson lays the ground for a “people-versus-parliament” election. European stock futures are moving higher in tandem with U.S. futures after a positive session in Asia.
* World Bank warns Brexit, European recession will hit world growth; The head of the World Bank warned global growth could come in lower than the 2.6% predicted in June amid “Brexit, Europe’s recession and trade uncertainty”.
Charts of the Day
Technician’s Corner
* EURUSD traded sideways through the NY morning session, ranging between 1.0982 and near two-week highs of 1.1000, in the Asian session the pair fell back to 1.0966. The Dollar overall appears to be showing signs of peaking, with incoming U.S. data last week showing significant indications of economic slowing. Europe has its own growth issues as well of course, though with markets pricing in another Fed rate cut at the end of October, EURUSD may have some room to run to the upside in the coming sessions.
* USDJPY topped at 107.07 in US session following comments from White House advisor Kudlow, who said that a US-China deal was possible and negotiators could make progress this week, and Washington is open to looking at China’s proposals. The comments came after China over the weekend indicated it is not open to a broad scale trade agreement. USD strength continued overnight with the pair touching 107.44.
Main Macro Events Today
* Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Headline PPI is expected to drop at -0.2% for September, with a 0.2% rise in the core index. As expected readings would result in a y/y gain of 1.5% for headline PPI, versus a 1.8% pace of August. We see y/y headline readings in a 1.0%-2.3% range over coming months, while core prices should oscillate in a 2.0%-2.5% range.
Support and Resistance levels
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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