Topic: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News. - page 29. (Read 32319 times)

Date : 18th July 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th July 2019.



FX News Today

* Bonds were supported by ongoing trade concerns, with the tensions between Japan and South Korea add to the lingering concerns about US-Sino relations.

* A WSJ report suggesting that trade negotiations between the US and China are at a “standstill.” This was followed by fresh evidence of the impact that trade tensions have been having, with Japanese trade data revealing a worse-than-expected 6.7% y/y contraction in exports, which have shrank for seven straight months now.

* South Korea’s central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates and said it has room to act again.

* The Fed’s Beige Book still said economic activity “continued to expand at a modest pace”, but globally central banks are clearly preparing for a marked slowdown as trade tensions bite.

* Concerns about a weak earnings season are putting pressure on stock markets.

* The USA100 futures dipped -0.6% so far after Netflix Inc posted a surprise loss of US customers.

* The GER30 future is underperforming as well amid a broad based decline in European and US stock futures after a weak session in Asia overnight.

* The WTI future meanwhile is trading at $56.70 per barrel.

* Fears of a no deal Brexit scenario also continue to cloud over the outlook but while the ECB is expected to at least introduce an official easing bias next week, before cutting rates in September.

* ECB’s Villeroy highlighted this morning that central banks can’t perform miracles and need help from politicians and fiscal policies.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD recovered slightly from 7-session lows of 1.1200, peaking at 1.1243. Brexit concerns have weighed on economic activity on the continent as well as the UK, and could limit Euro gains going forward. Risk for the EUR comes from the ECB as well, with a shift to an explicit easing bias expected by many at next week’s meeting, or at subsequent meetings. EURUSD support comes at 1.1218-1.1229, with Resistance at the 61.8% Fib. level from 2-week peak, at 1.1250-1.1252.

Main Macro Events Today

* Retail Sales (USD, GMT 08:30) – A -0.3%m/m contraction is expected for June retail sales, following 0.5% May loss. In the y/y comparison, sales are anticipated at 2.6% from 2.3%.

* Initial jobless claims (USD, GMT 12:30) – The initial jobless claims for the week of July 13 are estimated to fall to 204k, after falling to 209k in the week of July 6. Claims should average 215k in July, down from 222k in June and a 217k in May.

* Philly Fed Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Empire State index is estimated to rebound to 6.0 in July from -8.6 in June, which marked a 33-month low for the series. The producer sentiment readings all moderated through the turn of the year from elevated levels in response to global growth concerns, falling petroleum prices, fears about the ongoing trade war, and the partial government shutdown.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 17th July 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th July 2019.



FX News Today

* Stronger than expected US retail sales data put some pressure on bond markets.

* However, Equities turned lower as trade uncertainty returns.

* After the Chicago Fed President Evans flagged two rate cuts this year and US President Trump threatened to put another USD 325 bln of tariffs on Chinese goods, Stock markets were nervous and risk aversion lingered.

* US stock futures are posting fractional gains and Topix and Nikkei are currently down -0.05% and -0.27% respectively.

* Released overnight, a -17.3% decline in Singapore non-oil exports highlighted the damaging impact of global trade tensions.

* WTI crude dives near 3%, after Pompeo indicated that Iran is willing to negotiate on missiles. Oil prices are now trading at USD 57.69 per barrel, on yesterday’s indications that US-Iran tensions could be easing.

* Germany’s Von der Leyen confirmed as new EU Commission President. Von der Leyen will succeed Juncker and IMF head Lagarde today is tendering her resignation as her nomination for Draghi’s post looks more certain

* Bunds rallied from the off today and European stock futures are in the red after a mixed session in Asia, despite the prospect of additional easing measures.

* Bank of America and Netflix are due to report results today.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* USOIL: WTI crude has fallen 3% on the session following comments from US Secretary of State Pompeo in a cabinet meeting, who said for the first time, Iran is prepared to negotiate on its missile program. This news may signal a shift of policy in Iran, perhaps set to lower geopolitical tensions in the Mideast. The WTI contract has fallen from earlier highs just over $60.00 to $57.06 lows. Support now holds at $57.30 and $56.30. Resistance is set at $58.07 and $58.75.

Main Macro Events Today

* Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – May CPI came in on the nose at 2.0% y/y, ebbing from 2.1% y/y in April and marking a return to the upper bound of the BoE’s target. Next week’s reading for June is expected to remain unchanged. The same stands for core CPI.

* Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Euro Area CPI for June is expected to hold steady at 0.3% m/m, with the headline inflation at 1.2% y/y unchanged from the previous month. Still, as the weakness in manufacturing is now starting to reach the labour market, this means the prospect that underlying inflation pressures will build up soon look slim. This will keep the ECB on course for additional easing measures, unless there are major breakthroughs on the US-Sino trade and the Brexit front.

* Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – CPI is expected to decline at a 2.1% y/y pace in June.

* Housing Data (USD, GMT 12:30) – Housing starts should slow to a 1.260 mln pace in June, after a dip to 1.269 mln in May. Permits are expected to improve to 1.300 mln in June, after rising to 1.299 mln in May. Overall, we see a stronger trajectory for starts with a positive but slower pace for permits, as starts play catch-up with the higher permits trajectory.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 16th July 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th July 2019.



FX News Today

* Treasury yields steadied during the Asian session, with bonds erasing overnight gains and the 10-year yield now up 0.3 bp at 2.092%. JGB yields also backed up from lows and are down -0.1 bp at -0.129%, after returning from holiday, while yields declined in Australia and New Zealand after the minutes of the last RBA meeting showed the bank remains ready to adjust policy if needed.

* Stock markets meanwhile struggled in very light volumes as markets hold back ahead of key US data and earnings reports this week.

* On trade talks US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said he and Trade-Representative Lighthizer may travel to Beijing if talks by phone this week are productive.

* The WTI future is trading below $60 per barrel and U.S. futures are posting marginal gains.

* In Europe, the GER30 future is currently slightly higher as are US futures, which UK100 futures are in the red, amid ongoing Brexit jitters as Boris Johnson, poised to succeed as PM next week, puts no-deal options firmly back on the table.

* Last week’s round of Brexit negotiators was reportedly one of the most difficult encounters of the last 3 years.

* Meanwhile JP Morgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Taiwan Semiconductor are among the companies reporting results this weeks.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD has been held between its 20-day Moving Average of 1.1295 and its 50-day Moving Average at 1.1242 since Friday. A 25 basis point Fed rate cut at the end of the month has been priced into EURUSD, and focus now may shift to the ECB, where further stimulus could be in the cards at its next meeting on July 25, keeping EURUSD capped for the time being.

* USDJPY broke earlier today its 20-day Moving Average at 107.95, after printing 8-session high from 107.80 during the overnight Asian session. The mixed risk backdrop has limited the pairing’s gains since last week, as Wall Street trades on either side of flat, and Treasury yields remain pressured. The July 5 low of 107.76 remains a floor for the asset, while next Resistance stands at 108.20 and 108.50

Main Macro Events Today

* Average Earnings (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Average Earnings excluding bonus for May expected to slightly increase at 3.2% from 3.1% last month.

* ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for July is expected to be released at -19.0 compared to -21.1 last month.

* Retail Sales and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – 0.2% June retail sales gains are expected for both with and without autos, following 0.5% May gains for both measures. Unit vehicle sales ticked down to a 17.3 mln pace in June from an upwardly-revised 17.4 mln clip in May, and gasoline prices should provide a drag on retail activity given an estimated -3.5% figure for the CPI for gasoline. Real consumer spending is expected to grow at a 3.9% rate in Q2, following the 0.9% Q1 clip.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 15th July 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th June 2019.



* Trade warring and slowing global growth have set the scene for a possible earnings recession, which could catalyze a risk-off phase in global markets. Therefore next week’s inflation data out of some of the major economies, Australia’s employment report and China’s 2Q19 GDP report could be the highlights in the coming week. Another focus is the upcoming Q2 corporate earnings season, which will get into gear next week with “show and tells” from the banking sector.

Monday – 15 July 2019

* China Gross Domestic Product (CNY, GMT 02:00)- Chinese GDP is projected to see additional moderation to a 6.2% y/y pace in Q2, from the 6.4% y/y growth rate in Q1. The economy has grown at a 6.2% pace so far in 2019, while it was at a 6.6% pace for all of 2018, leaving the slowest growth rate since the 3.9% clip in 1990. It grew 6.8% in 2017.

* Consumer Price Index (NZD, GMT 22:45) – New Zealand inflation is expected to rise by 1.7% y/y in Q2, edging higher than the 1.5% observed in Q1.

Tuesday – 16 July 2019

* Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The RBA has already cut rates to record lows and comments from the central bank governor yesterday didn’t sound as though the bank was readying further easing at the moment. Minutes are expected to shed further light regarding future easing stance.

* Average Earnings (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Average Earnings excluding bonus for May expected to slightly increase at 3.2% from 3.1% last month.

* ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for July is expected to be released at -19.0 compared to -21.1 last month.

* Retail Sales and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – 0.2% June retail sales gains are expected for both with and without autos, following 0.5% May gains for both measures. Unit vehicle sales ticked down to a 17.3 mln pace in June from an upwardly-revised 17.4 mln clip in May, and gasoline prices should provide a drag on retail activity given an estimated -3.5% figure for the CPI for gasoline. Real consumer spending is expected to grow at a 3.9% rate in Q2, following the 0.9% Q1 clip.

Wednesday – 17 July 2019

* Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – May CPI came in on the nose at 2.0% y/y, ebbing from 2.1% y/y in April and marking a return to the upper bound of the BoE’s target. Next week’s reading for June is expected to remain unchanged. The same stands for core CPI.

* Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Euro Area CPI for June is expected to hold steady at 0.3% m/m, with the headline inflation at 1.2% y/y unchanged from the previous month. Still, as the weakness in manufacturing is now starting to reach the labour market, this means the prospect that underlying inflation pressures will build up soon look slim. This will keep the ECB on course for additional easing measures, unless there are major breakthroughs on the US-Sino trade and the Brexit front.

* Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – CPI is expected to decline at a 2.1% y/y pace in June.

* Housing Data (USD, GMT 12:30) – Housing starts should slow to a 1.260 mln pace in June, after a dip to 1.269 mln in May. Permits are expected to improve to 1.300 mln in June, after rising to 1.299 mln in May. Overall, we see a stronger trajectory for starts with a positive but slower pace for permits, as starts play catch-up with the higher permits trajectory.

Thursday – 18 July 2019

* Employment Data (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Australian labour market data is expected to deteriorate, as the employment is anticipated at 10K from 42.3K in May.

Friday – 19 July 2019

* Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – The main US consumer confidence index is expected to ease to 93.0 in March, compared to 93.8 in February.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 12th July 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th July 2019.



FX News Today

* Treasuries recovered during the Asian session after better than expected data and a weak auction put pressure on bonds yesterday.

* Bonds across Asia were under pressure though and JGB yields moved up 2.6 bp to -0.121%, while Australia’s 10-year yield jumped 12.0 bp to 1.450%.The RBA already cut rates to record lows and comments from the central bank governor yesterday didn’t sound as though the bank was readying further easing at the moment, which.

* Stock markets were cautious ahead of trade and lending data out of China today, which are expected to set the tone for GDP numbers out on Monday.

* With Powell’s testimony out of the way the focus is shifting back to the impact of trade tensions and after Singapore reported the weakest GDP growth number in a decade investors are holding back before taking fresh positions especially after a tweet by US President Trump saying China was not living up to promises made on buying agricultural products from the US.

* Indices swung between gains and losses overnight and Topix and Nikkei are currently down -0.19% and up 0.15% respectively.

* European stock futures are moving higher in tandem with US futures.

.* The WTI future is trading at $60.67 per barrel, amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD spiked to 1.1274 in Asia session after knocking lower following the warmer US CPI outcome. Looking ahead, the Dollar is likely to remain in sell-the-rally mode ahead of the July FOMC meeting, where a 25 basis point rate cut is widely expected. EURUSD support is now at the 50-day Moving Average at 1.1240, with resistance at 1.1287-95, the July 5 and July 4 highs.

* USDCAD drifted lower to 1.3023 area as WTI future is rading at USD 60.58 per barrel, amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Next Support stands at 1.2970-1.2990.

Main Macro Events Today

* Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Headline PPI is expected to hold at 0.1% in June, and at 0.2% in the core index. These readings would keep in a y/y gain of 1.4% for headline PPI. We see y/y headline readings in a 1.3%-1.9% range over coming months, while core prices should be in a 2.1%-2.5% range.

* Fed Chair Powell Testimony 2nd day (USD, GMT 14:00)

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 11th July 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th July 2019.



FX News Today

* FOMC minutes of the June meeting were a little anti-climactic following Fed Chair Powell’s testimony. However, there were “many” indications that an easier policy stance was the more desired outcome.

* 10-year Treasury yields dropped -2.3 bp to 2.039% overnight, and reopened soft, stopped at 2.064% tailing out from 2.057%.

* US stocks rise, yields drop, Powell’s testimony supported rate cut expectations.

* The S&P 500 briefly topped the 3000 mark for the first time, but the index didn’t manage to hold these levels as stocks generally came off highs.

* USD lower as Powell signals July FOMC rate cut.

* The WTI future is trading at $60.57 per barrel, amid reports that Iranian boats attempted to “impede” the passage of a British tanker.showed another drop in stock piles, which dampened concerns about oversupply.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* FX Update: The USD posted fresh lows during the pre-Europe session in Asia as markets continued to readjust Fed easing expectations in the wake of Chairman Powell’s testimony yesterday, which was consistent with a 25 bp rate cut at the end of this month with an addendum stipulating that the Fed has the tools needed and could use them “aggressively” if necessary. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) has declined by about 0.6% over the last day, earlier printing a six-day low at 96.90, while EURUSD rose to a six-day high at 1.1280 and USDJPY posted a six-day low at 107.86. The US currency saw a similar magnitude of decline against other currencies. In the mix has been an unexpected upward revision to June German HICP, to 1.5% y/y from 1.3% y/y, while news that Iran tried to intercept a British tanker in the Strait of Hormuz (London claiming that its navel ship HMS Montrose saw off three Iranian vessels with “verbal warnings”) saw front-month WTI crude prices spike above $60.0, the first time above this level since late May.

Main Macro Events Today

* Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The German HICP inflation is expected to hold at 1.3% y/y for June.

* Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – May’s CPI has been estimated at a -0.1% drop for headline PPI in June, and a 0.2% rise in the core index. As expected readings would result in a y/y gain of 1.4% for headline PPI, slowing from a 1.8% pace in May, and a 2.1% y/y rise for the core, versus 2.3% in May.

* Fed Chair Powell Testimony 2nd day (USD, GMT 14:00)

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 10th July 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th July 2019.



FX News Today

* Markets take a defensive stance ahead of Powell’s testimony to Congress and the release of the minutes from the last Fed meeting.

* Speaking overnight Atlanta Fed President Bostic said the central bank is debating the risks and benefits of letting the economy run a “little hotter” and while most are still expecting a 25 bp “insurance cut” this month, there are fears that Powell may close the door to rate cut hopes.

* GER30 and UK100 futures are narrowly mixed and US futures slightly in the red, after a mixed session in Asia overnight.

* KOSPI and KOSDAQ recovered as Japan and South Korea said they are planning talks on the trade tensions. Japan’s new export restrictions on materials vital to South Korea’s tech industry, and hopes of thawing relations helped KOSDAQ to gain 1.6%, elsewhere moves were pretty muted.

* Eurozone peripheral markets are outperforming, but yields are also up across Italy, Spain and Portugal.

* Trade risks, US-Iran tensions and in Europe the risk of a no-deal Brexit scenario keep markets looking to central banks for support.

* The WTI future meanwhile surged to $58.76 per barrel, after US data showed another drop in stock piles, which dampened concerns about oversupply.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURGBP has forayed above 0.9000 for the first time since early January while Cable has descended into 27-month low territory. EURGBP has now made this the 8th week out of the last nine where a new higher high has been set. The Pound has been trading with a 10-15% trade-weighted Brexit discount since the vote to leave the EU in June 2016.

* USDJPY was stopped in its tracks at 6-week highs of 108.96, the level coinciding with the 50-day Moving Average. Profit taking ensued, which took the pairing to 108.76 lows in early NY and Asia session. In addition to the noted technical resistance, Japanese exporter offers are reportedly parked from the 109.00 level, which should help cap gains going forward.

Main Macro Events Today

* Gross Domestic Product, Manufacturing & Industrial Production (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The GDP is the economy’s most important figure. May’s GDP is expected to be lower at -0.7% m/m following the -0.4% reading from last month. Meanwhile, Industrial and Manufacturing Production will be out as well. These two indices are expected to have increased, with industrial output providing an upwards contribution of 1.5% m/m in February, while manufacturing is projected to have risen to 2.3% from its -3.9% last month.

* Event of the week – Interest rate Decision and Conference (CAD, GMT 14:00) –Last time, Bank of Canada held the policy rate setting steady at 1.75%, matching widespread expectations, while the statement was largely optimistic in terms of the growth outlook. The expectations remain for no change of the policy outlook from the BoC through year-end, with the next move expected to be a modest rate hike in late 2020.

* FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) -The FOMC Minutes report provides the FOMC Members’ opinions regarding the US economic outlook and any views regarding future rate hikes. In the last FOMC statement, on June 19, FOMC left rates unchanged but the statement, which removed the word “patient”, along with the inflation outlook, the dot-plot, and Bullard’s dissent in favor of easing, made for a dovish stance.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

I don’t know if I’m the only one that does no longer have time for all these market analysis and the rest of them because I strongly believe that the price of Bitcoin is going up no matter what happens. This is no longer a new thing, lots of people already have it in mind that Bitcoin is going up this year… Well, even if it happens that the market doesn’t go up any longer, or reach the all time high price that people has predicting… I’m not really going to bother about it cause I’m still okay with what I have got to so far.

Date : 9th July 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th July 2019.



FX News Today

* Stock markets remain cautious ahead of Powell’s testimony, after jobs data reduced hopes of big rate cuts from the Fed.

* Tech stocks were hit by a slump in Apple Inc. after a broker downgrade.

* Topix and Nikkei pared early gains in the course of the session and are currently down -0.22% and up 0.06% respectively.

* Central bank expectations remain a major force for stock market moves, amid lingering geopolitical trade tensions, which are far from over despite the restart of US-Sino talks.

* European futures as well as US futures are down -0.3-0.4% with the Nasdaq underperforming.

* In Europe, BTPs are currently outperforming, but Greek bonds, which rallied yesterday on the election result, are paring some of the gains.

* Released overnight, UK BRC retail sales came in weaker than expected and fell back -1.6% m/m in the same store measure. Still to come are Italian retail sales numbers and an I/L auction in Germany.

* Oil prices meanwhile continue to hold in the USD 57-58 range, with the WTI future currently trading at USD 57.50.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* GBPUSD retests again the 6-month low into EU open, at 1.2483. EURGBP remained buoyant, but markets still lacked the muster for a test of the recent six-month high at 0.8992. A 0.3% m/m contraction in the Halifax measure of UK house prices (released Friday) was the latest in a series of data disappointments out of the UK. As for Brexit, the news flow has remains quiet in terms of substantive developments. That will change as soon as the new prime minister, most likely no-deal-Brexit-if-necessary Boris Johnson, takes up the reigns (which will be later in the month). Cable has resistance at 1.2510-20. Next Support at 1.2420.

* Silver: Despite the decline seen the last 2 days, Silver manage to be held above the 20- and 50-week SMA, sustaining more than 50% of the gains seen in June. Breaching the uptrend Support at 14.90 and also the small bounce up to 15.10 suggest that the corrective pressure is growing again. The RSI is sloping to the upside again but still remains below 50 in the daily chart, while MACD remains within the positive area following a bear cross last week.  The key level at $15.10 is now a Resistance whilst traction below the $14.90 would open $14.60 as the next Support. A break above Resistance couls retest the $15.25-$15.35 area.

Main Macro Events Today

* Fed Chair Powell Speech on Boston (USD, GMT 12:45)

* JOLTS Job Openings (USD, GMT 14:00) – JOLTS define Job Openings as all positions that have not be filled on the last business day of the month. May’s JOLTS job openings is expected to rise slightly at 7.479M, following the 7.44M in April.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 8th July 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th June 2019.



* An interesting week is coming up, following a confirmation that the US and China will resume trade negotiations.Market attention is also honed in on central banks, as Fed Chair Powell testifies before Congress. In the UK, the focus turns to GDP.

Monday – 08 July 2019

* Industrial Production and Trade Balance (EUR, GMT 06:00) – In Germany, the surplus is expected to increase to EUR 18.6 bln in May, from EUR 17 bln in the previous month. Overall exports clearly are impacted by geopolitical trade tensions and the risk of US tariffs on auto imports from the EU are still hanging over the manufacturing sector and spell further troubles ahead. Meanwhile, Industrial production expected to be corrected -0.4% m/m in May, from -1.9% last month.

Tuesday – 09 July 2019

* JOLTS Job Openings (USD, GMT 14:00) – JOLTS define Job Openings as all positions that have not be filled on the last business day of the month. May’s JOLTS job openings is expected to rise slightly at 7.479M, following the 7.44M in April.


Wednesday – 10 July 2019

* Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The June’s Chinese CPI is expected to drop to -0.1%. The overall reading is estimated to be unchanged.

* Gross Domestic Product, Manufacturing & Industrial Production (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The GDP is the economy’s most important figure. May’s GDP is expected to be lower at -0.7% m/m following the -0.4% reading from last month. Meanwhile, Industrial and Manufacturing Production will be out as well. These two indices are expected to have increased, with industrial output providing an upwards contribution of 1.5% m/m in February, while manufacturing is projected to have rise to 2.3% from its -3.9% last month.

* Event of the week – Interest rate Decision and Conference (CAD, GMT 14:00) –Last time, Bank of Canada held the policy rate setting steady at 1.75%, matching widespread expectations, while the statement was largely optimistic in terms of the growth outlook. The expectations remains for no change of the policy outlook from the BoC through year-end, with the next move expected to be a modest rate hike in late 2020.

* FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) -The FOMC Minutes report provides the FOMC Members’ opinions regarding the US economic outlook and any views regarding future rate hikes. In the last FOMC statement, on June 19, FOMC left rates unchanged but the statement (removed patient) and the inflation outlook, the dot-plot, and Bullard’s dissent in favor of easing made for a dovish stance.

Thursday – 11 July 2019

* Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) –The German HICP inflation is expected to hold at 1.3% y/y for June.

* Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) –May’s CPI has been estimated at a -0.1% drop for headline PPI in June, and a 0.2% rise in the core index. As expected readings would result in a y/y gain of 1.4% for headline PPI, slowing from a 1.8% pace in May, and a 2.1% y/y rise for the core, versus 2.3% in May.

* Fed Chair Powell Testimony (USD, GMT 14:00)

Friday – 12 July 2019

* Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Headline PPI is expected to hold at 0.1% in June, and at 0.2% in the core index. These readings would keep in a y/y gain of 1.4% for headline PPI. We see y/y headline readings in a 1.3%-1.9% range over coming months, while core prices should be in a 2.1%-2.5% range.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 5th July 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th July 2019.



FX News Today

* Stock markets are little changed and awaiting today’s US jobs report.

* Hopes of further central bank easing have underpinned the latest rally in bonds and helped stock markets to move past lingering trade tensions.

* Today’s NFP report will be watched closely in the light of speculation for a move from the Fed this month. Anything but a much stronger than expected number will likely see markets continue to price in deep easing ahead.

* Topix and Nikkei are up 0.08% and 0.09% respectively, the Hang Seng lifted 0.12% and CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp 0.55% and 0.19%.

* Oil prices meanwhile are trading at $56.65, clearly below recent highs, despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

* Italian rates fall further as weaker than expected German manufacturing orders added to hopes for additional easing measures from the ECB.

* German manufacturing orders slumped -2.2 bp in the May reading, bringing the annual rate down to -8.6% y/y. Orders from within the Eurozone have now dropped for the second consecutive month while orders from outside the currency bloc fell back -5.7% m/m, after some strong months.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD edged out a 1.1273, which is just 5 pips from yesterday’s low. Market narratives have been centering on the ECB’s further turn to the dovish side, which has tipped the Bund yield curve into negative right out to the 20-year maturity, while the 10-year yield has forayed below -0.40%, undershooting the deposit rate.

* GBPUSD found a footing after three straight down days, which yesterday culminated in a 15-day low at 1.2557. The pair has since taken root around 1.2575-90. EURGBP similarly came to a directional halt below the six-day high seen yesterday at 0.8990, which is just 2 pips short of the six-month peak that was seen last week.

Main Macro Events Today

* NFP and Labour Market Data (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 170k June nonfarm payroll rise is projected, following a 75k increase in May. The unemployment rate should remain steady at 3.6% from April, and hours worked are estimated to rise 0.2%. Average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% m/m, for a y/y gain of 3.2%, above the 3.1% pace of April but below the 3.4% cycle-high pace of February. The payroll gains are seen averaging 169k in 2019, down from a 223k average in 2018.

* Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The unemployment rate fell to 5.4% in May from 5.7% in April as the participation rate eased to 65.7 from 65.9. Hence, this strong reading is expected to hold for June, while employment change is expected to grow slightly up to 8K from the 27.7K seen in May after the 106.6k surge in April.

* Ivey PMI (CAD, GMT 14:00) – A survey of purchasing managers, the Index provides an overview of the state of business conditions in the country.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 4th July 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th July 2019.



FX News Today

* 10-year Treasury yields closed at 1.950% and the Dow lifted to record highs ahead of today’s holiday in the US, as investors priced in deep central bank easing.

* In Europe, Bund yields are holding steady around -0.39% in opening trade, and Italian yields in particular continue to slide, as investors buy into hopes that under Lagarde’s helm the ECB will take a more benign view on deficit spending and implement further easing to support struggling economies.

* US President Trump once again accused China and Eurozone of currency manipulation and stock markets turned more cautious during the Asian session amid lingering trade concerns and with trading volumes below average as investors wait for the key US jobs report on Friday.

* European stock futures are slightly higher, while US futures are marginally in the red.

* The WTI future is trading at $56.85 per barrel.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* USDJPY recovered from post-ADP lows of 107.58, bouncing to 107.82 highs, after failing to test the overnight 6-session low of 107.54. Soft Treasury yields (10-year at 1.95%) have limited upside for the pairing, though another Wall Street rally should contain losses. Activity is likely to wind down early today, as many make their way out the door on today’s Independence Day holiday.

* AUDUSD: The Australian Dollar has outperformed for a second day, presently near highs with a 0.6% gain versus the US buck and a 0.8% advance against the pound, which is the weakest of the main currencies on the day so far. AUD-USD posted a 57-day at 0.7047, extending gains seen from yesterday’s at 0.6956, seen in the immediate wake of the RBA’s rate cut. Markets had mostly priced-in the move, with Aussie money markets having factored in 85% odds for it. Given this, along with some cautiously upbeat remarks on the outlook in RBA Governor Lowe’s statement, and the thawing in US-China tensions, the scene was set for a rally in the Australian Dollar. AUDUSD has support at 0.7017-20.

Main Macro Events Today

* United States – Independence Day

* Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Retail Sales are expected to climb to 1.6% for May, after the 1.5% last month.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 3rd July 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd July 2019.



FX News Today

* Stock market sentiment turned cautious again during the Asian session.

* EU leaders formally nominate IMF head Lagarde to head the ECB and replace Mario Draghi.  Lagarde, is clearly a much more dovish option in comparison to Weidmann, who has been the leader of the hawks on the council.

* Lagarde’s nomination was enough for investors to price in even more easing and asset purchases, despite the fact that a Bloomberg report suggested that the majority of policy makers are not ready to make a more in July and prefer to wait for the updated forecasts in September. EGB futures have extended gains on the news.

* BoE’s Carney flags downside risks from trade. The BoE head repeated that the central bank sees the need for rate hikes if Brexit is smooth, he added that markets are giving more weight to a no deal scenario and that the BoE will reassess Brexit and trade risks at the August meeting.

* The US’ threat of additional tariffs on European goods highlighted that geopolitical trade tensions are far from over.

* The private China services PMI slowed to a four month low in June, adding to signs that much of the damage has already been done.

* Nikkei and Hang Seng lost -0.72% and -0.26% respectively and the Shanghai Comp is down -0.86%.

* President Trump plans to nominate Christopher Waller and Judy Shelton to the Fed Board of Governors to fill the two vacancies.

* GER30 and UK100 futures are currently posting slight gains, underpinned also by easing hopes, while U.S. futures are in the red, after a largely weaker close in Asia.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* USDJPY has come under some pressure, dropping to 107.52. Modest risk-off conditions have weighed, while the sentiment boost seen after the US/China trade truce appears to have worn off, leaving the reality that it may well be quite some time before agreements are made, and tariffs come off. Until some progress is made, it appears USDJPY upside will be limited.

* XAUUSD rallied to 1437.68 high,, underpinned by easing hopes and by geopolitical trade tensions which clearly are far from over. AMid EU open Gold reversed slightly lower to 1421 area and it is currently consolidating above it. Support holds at 1421, 1413 and 1407.55. Resistance levels come at 1428.55, 1431.80 and 1440.

Main Macro Events Today

* United States – Independence Day – Early close at 13:00 GMT

* Services  PMI (GBP, GMT 08:30) –The June Services PMI is seen stable at 51 m/m.

* Trade Balance (USD, GMT 12:30) – It is expected to widen in May to -$54.6 bln (median -$53.5 bln) from -$50.8 bln in April.

* ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 13:15) – Employment change is seen spiking to 150k in the number of employed people in June, compared to the weak 27k reading seen last month.

* ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to fall to 56.0 in June from 56.9 in May and a 19-month low of 56.1 in March, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 2nd July 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd July 2019.

[​IMG]

FX News Today
Australia’s 10-year rate fell -2.7 bp, as the RBA slashed the cash rate by 25 bps to a record low of 1.00%, citing the slowdown in global trade.
US President Trump may have signalled that talks with China have already restarted, but the US reportedly also expanded a list of European products that may get hit with tariffs, which highlights that the restart of US-Sino trade talks doesn’t mark the end of global trade tensions.
Stock markets already turned cautious again in Asian trade.
US futures are marginally higher and the WTI future is trading at $59.13 per barrel.
European stock futures are moving higher in tandem with US futures after a lacklustre session in Asia.
Meanwhile weaker than expected German retail sales at the start of the session confirmed that the weakness in the manufacturing sector is spreading to the rest of the economy, which will keep the ECB on course for further easing.
EU leaders will meet again to resume discussion on the next president of the European Commission and other top posts that will become vacant this year, including the ECB presidency.
Charts of the Day
[​IMG]
Technician’s Corner
AUDUSD jumped to 0.6985 at the Asia session amid the RBA announcement, after the decline seen yesterday on Dollar strength. The asset manage to held above 20- and 50-day SMA. A trade above 0.7000 which is the midpoint on yesterday’s decline could suggest further upside path for AUDUSD. Support comes at 2-day low, at 0.6955. A shift back to the latter could open the doors towards June’s values.
EURUSD faded to 7-session lows of 1.1275, down from the 1.1360 highs seen ahead of the NY open. Weaker European PMI data, along with more dovish ECBspeak, saw sentiment toward the Euro soured some. For the USD side of the equation, markets have toned down their Fed rate cut expectations, leaving the odds of a 50 bp cut in July a long shot. As a result, the Dollar has posted gains, helped by the trade truce agreed over the weekend. There are still likely to be further trade fireworks going forward, but as long as the US economy continues to outperform rivals, USD downside should be limited going forward.
Main Macro Events Today

Construction PMI (GBP, GMT 09:30) –The June construction PMI is seen rebounding to 49.4 after 48.6 in May.
Manufacturing PMI (CAD, GMT 14:00) – The Markit Manufacturing PMI in the Canada is expected to come out at about 49.0 in June,slightly below the 49.1 in May.
BoE’s Governor Carney speech (GBP, GMT 14:05)
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 1st July 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th June 2019.



* An important week is coming up as we will have an outcome of the well anticipated Trump-Xi meeting, while finally the 1st and 2nd of July will see OPEC+ members meet in Vienna. In addition, NFPs will be out on Friday and a broad range of PMIs and other early indicators are expected during the week.

Monday – 01 July 2019

* OPEC Meetings – OPEC meetings are usually held in Vienna and are attended by representatives from 15 oil-rich nations.

* Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) – The Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to hold into the neutral zone in June.

* Markit Manufacturing PMI (EUR and GBP, GMT 07:55-08:30) – In June,  the German PMI is expected to remain unchanged in the negative region, while UK PMI is seen strengthening at 52.0 from 49.4 last month.

* ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM index is expected to fall to 51.5 in June from 52.1 in May, compared to a 14-year high of 61.4 in August. Overall, we’ve seen a stabilization in sentiment since the late-2018 pullback.

Tuesday – 02 July 2019

* Interest rate Decision and Statement (AUD, GMT 04:30) – Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut its cash rate by 25 bp to 1.00%. The CPI y/y rate came in at 1.3% from 1.8%, as the RBA targets underlying CPI at 2%-3%. The RBA stated this month that a rate cut “would be appropriate” should inflation remain weak. Australian OIS pricing is fully discounting a cut in the cash rate. Nevertheless, the Australian economy remains the most exposed developed-nation economy to China.


Wednesday – 02 July 2019

* United States – Independence Day – Early close at 13:00 GMT

* ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 13:15) – Employment change is seen spiking to 150k in the number of employed people in June, compared to the weak 27k reading seen last month.

* ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to fall to 56.0 in June from 56.9 in May and a 19-month low of 56.1 in March, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September.

Thursday – 04 July 2019

* United States – Independence Day

* Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 01:30) – Retail Sales are expected to climb to 0.2% for May, after falling to -0.1% last month.

Friday – 05 July 2019

* NFP and Labour Market Data (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 170k June nonfarm payroll rise is projected, following a 75k increase in May. The unemployment rate should remain steady at 3.6% from April, and hours-worked are estimated to rise 0.2%. Average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% m/m, for a y/y gain of 3.2%, above the 3.1% pace of April but below the 3.4% cycle-high pace of February. The payroll gains are seen averaging 169k in 2019, down from a 223k average in 2018.

* Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The unemployment rate fell to 5.4% in May from 5.7% in April as the participation rate eased to 65.7 from 65.9. Hence, this strong reading is expected to hold for June, while employment change is expected to grow slightly up to 8K from the 27.7K seen in May after the 106.6k surge in April.

* Ivey PMI (CAD, GMT 14:00) – A survey of purchasing managers, the Index provides an overview of the state of business conditions in the country.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 28th June 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th June 2019.



FX News Today

* Stock markets headed south during the Asian session.

* Trade headlines continue to drive market sentiment and fresh doubts that there will be a breakthrough on the trade front at the highly anticipated meeting between US President Trump and China’s leader Xi Jinping saw investors heading for cover again.

* Trump repeated threats of more tariffs and with global equities still more than 5% higher on the month, the risk of disappointment is capping markets for now.

* If there are at least further negotiations and central banks remain on course to add more stimulus, it should be a constructive start to the second half of the year.
Topix and JP225 lost -0.25% and -0.50% respectively so far.

* US futures are trading narrowly mixed, with American lenders gaining overnight after announcing share buybacks in the wake of annual Fed stress tests.

* The WTI future is at $59.19 per barrel after seeing a high of $59.54 overnight.

* In Europe,  peripheral markets are outperforming and Eurozone spreads narrowing as a sharp drop in German import price inflation at the start of the session added to pressure on the ECB to implement further easing.

* Eurozone stock futures are narrowly mixed.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* BTCUSD retreated further overnight, with the contract bottoming at $10,228.24, down from Wednesday highs of $13,821. This sell off has been measured as a 25% plunged. The sell off started on the failure of Coinbase website. Technically, the decline came after the asset reached  the 61.8% retracement level from year’s high, while it is currently retesting the 50% Fib. level. Hence as the asset was overbought such a correction is technically acceptable. If the pair manages to sustain a move above the 38.2% Fib level along with a move above the midpoint from this week’s decline (i.e. 12000.00), could spread hopes for another attempt higher again.

* USDJPY fell briefly under 107.70. Word that China would require preconditions for the talks weighed the pairing down, though moved off its lows as NEC chief Kudlow said there were no pre-conditions to the talks. Wall Street gains limited the pairing’s losses, though soft Treasury yields put a cap on USDJPY. Resistance is now at the 20-day moving average of 108.08, with Support at the overnight low of 107.55.

Main Macro Events Today

* Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The Q1 GDP could be seen falling to 0.2%q/q  from the preliminary reading seen in May at 0.5%q/q. The ONS stats office noted there was a “dramatic fall” in UK car production in April, which was pinned squarely on Brexit uncertainty.

* Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The preliminary Euro Area CPI for June is anticipated to rise to 1.3% y/y from 1.2%y/y last month. The core inflation is seen at 1.0% y/y from 0.8% y/y.

* US Personal Spending (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 0.3% gain is seen in personal income in May after a 0.5% increase in April, alongside a 0.3% rise in May consumption.

* Chicago PMI  and Michigan Index (USD, GMT 13:45-14:00) – The Chicago PMI should be 55.0 from 54.2 last month. Michigan Index is the main US consumer confidence index and it is expected to remain flat following the drop to 97.9 from an 8-month high of 100.0 in May.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 27th June 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th June 2019.



FX News Today

* Treasuries were weaker Wednesday after a poorly subscribed 5-year auction, while aggressive Fed rate cut expectations continued to be priced out.

* Also other bond markets in Asia, which were under pressure as stocks moved higher.

* Markets are pinning their hopes on Saturday’s meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping at the side-lines of the G-20 meeting with reports that the U. is willing to hold off further tariffs for now helping to bolster confidence.

* At the same time, President Trump threatened additional China tariffs if there is no agreement.

* Still, without a firm and formal agreement in place risks of set backs remain high, especially as US.-Iran tensions and in Europe no-deal Brexit scenarios provide a risky backdrop.

* European stock futures are moving higher in tandem with US futures after broad gains in Asia.

* WTI crude surged to 4-week highs on API data showing big US inventory drop.

* USD is trading mixed today after rallying Tuesday on Fed’s walk back of dovish guidance.

* JPY down, Dollar bloc currencies up quite sharply on US-China optimism.

* GBP is underperforming again on persisting Brexit related demand-supply imbalance.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD rallied to 1.1391 highs, after bouncing from the session low at 1.1348, which is also the 200-day moving average. The pairing has since run into sellers in front of the 1.1400 mark, settling in under 1.1360. Softer US data weighed on the Dollar, though Fed Chair Powell’s more neutral stance on policy may tone down market’s aggressive easing potential, likely to limit EUR gains going forward. In addition, increasing prospects for further ECB easing should also keep a cap on EURUSD.

* AUDJPY has been the biggest mover,  rising about 0.5% in printing a 16-day high at 75.62. The Yen weaken as markets opted for risk-on positioning ahead of the G20 summit. USDJPY posted an eight-day high at 108.13. This price action came as Chinese markets led broader gains across Asian stock markets, which propelled the MSCI Asia-Pacific index up by 0.6%. Meanwhile, as AUDJPY seems overbought outside from upper Bollinger Bands pattern, Some correction could be seen with immediate Support at 75.33. Resistance holds at 75.67 and 75.80.

Main Macro Events Today

* Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 12:00) – The German HICP inflation is expected to be unchanged to 1.3% y/y.

* US Final Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30) – The final release of the Q1 GDP growth rate is expected unchanged from 3.1%, with downward revisions of -$6 bln for service consumption and -$1 bln for factory inventories.

* Tokyo CPI and Production Data (JPY, GMT 23:30) – The country’s main leading indicator of inflation is expected to have grown at 1.3% y/y in June, and at 1.2% y/y ex Fresh Food. Industrial Production should post a 2.6% decline y/y in May, compared to -1.1% in April.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 26th June 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th June 2019.



FX News Today

* A less than dovish comment from Fed dove Bullard, with the Chairman Powell soothed a bit, and along with the usual trade uncertainty and US-Iran concerns, all combined with softer US data to take Wall Street and Treasury yields lower overnight.

* Hence in Asia session, the rally on bond markets run out of steam and stocks struggled as optimism on an immediate rate cut from the Fed and a breakthrough in US-Sino trade talk fades.

* Fed Chair Powell repeated the phrase the Fed is “closely monitoring“. He highlighted downside risks to the economy again, but didn’t go beyond last week’s guidance on rates.

* Presidents Trump and Xi are likely to meet on Saturday, where they may agree to reopen trade talks.

* Source stories meanwhile suggest that the US is willing to suspend the next round of China tariffs if trade talks resume, but Trump and Xi Jinping are not expected to agree on a detailed trade deal at the G-20 meeting.

* Against that background stock markets struggled during the Asian session. Topix and Nikkei corrected -0.71% and -0.70% respectively

* The RBNZ kept rates at record lows, but said further cuts may be needed.

* The WTI future is trading at $59.10 per barrel amid US-Iran tensions.

* German consumer confidence deteriorates. It fell back to 9.8 in the advance July reading. This is the lowest number since April 2017.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURCHF has found a footing into 1.10 area after coming under significant pressure last week, in the wake of ECB President Draghi’s eyebrow raising dovish shift, which has been the most notable of a growing chorus of dovish voices on the central bank’s governing council. Assuming the ECB remains on the path of further monetary policy easing ,the EURCHF  is expected to retain a declining bias. The SNB’s -0.75% deposit rate and threat of tactical intervention hasn’t been sufficient to arrest recent appreciation of the Franc.

Main Macro Events Today

* ECB’s Mersch speech (EUR, GMT 08:00)

* BoE’s Governor Carney speech (GBP, GMT 09:00)

* Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to be flat in May, after a -2.1% figure in April. Transportation orders should fall -0.5%. Boeing orders fell to just zero from a dismal 4 in April, with the hit from problems with the Boeing 737 Max that prompted buyers to delay new purchase commitments.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 25th June 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th June 2019.



FX News Today

* Treasury yields extended declines in a quiet and cautious Monday action.

* The front end and belly of the curve mostly led the way on safe haven flows and as the FOMC’s more dovish than expected twist last Wednesday continued to support.

* Equities were little changed after a narrow, range bound trade.

* Tensions with Iran continued to drive cash into the safety of Treasuries, especially after President Trump announced he was placing more sanctions against its supreme leader and other top Iran officials has closed the path to a diplomatic solution (on the Ayatollah Khamenei, personally).

* US futures are down -0.2-0.5% as traders await Powell’s speech today.

* TheWTI future saw a high of $57.98 per barrel before pulling back slightly to now $57.45.

* Wall Street was in a more wait-and-see mode on the geopolitical risks, and as global markets await the U.S.-China trade talks at the G20 later in the week.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD printed fresh 3-month highs just over 1.1411, up from 1.1380 lows at the open. The Euro moved to session highs after the weaker Dallas Fed index. The pairing ran into sellers at 1.1400, seeing a pullback to 1.1386 lows. Prospects for a July Fed rate cut continue to weigh on the Dollar, though soft EU data are likely to push the ECB toward further stimulus over the next few months, largely offsetting potential Fed policy easing. The March 20 high of 1.1448 is the next resistance level.

* Gold has printed five-plus year highs of $1,439.11, up from opening lows of $1,418.17. US/Iran tensions, along with potential for a Fed rate cut in July, and a weaker Dollar have all combined to put a bid under gold prices. The contract can be expected to remain in buy-the-dip mode for the foreseeable future, and continue to benefit from safe-haven flows on any fresh clashes in the Mideast.

Main Macro Events Today

* NO OPEC Meeting in June –The dates of the separate OPEC ministerial meeting and of OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, have been changed to July 1-2, from June 25-26.

* CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Consumer Confidence is expected to slip to 133.5 in June from 134.1 in May, versus a 16-month low of 121.7 as recently as January and an 18-year high of 137.9 in October. Overall, confidence measures remain historically high.

* Fed’s Chair Powell speech (USD, GMT 17:00)

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 24th June 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th June 2019.



* Last week of June ahead, with a caution turning into Osaka G20 meeting and the coveted Trump-Xi meeting. Market attention is also honed in on any trade escalations but also on next week’s inflation data which could have an impact on ECB’s next move.

Monday – 24 June 2019

* German IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) – June German IFO business confidence is expected to hold at 97.3, after it unexpectedly fell back to 97.9 in May from 99.2.

* Trade Balance (NZD, GMT 22:45) – The overall trade deficit of New Zealand is expected to have declined to $5.32 billion in May, compared to $5.48 billion in April.

Tuesday – 25 June 2019

* OPEC Meetings – OPEC meetings are usually held in Vienna and are attended by representatives from 15 oil-rich nations.

* CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Consumer Confidence is expected to slip to 133.5 in June from 134.1 in May, versus a 16-month low of 121.7 as recently as January and an 18-year high of 137.9 in October. Overall, confidence measures remain historically high.

* Fed’s Chair Powell speech (USD, GMT 17:00)

Wednesday – 26 June 2019

* Interest rate Decision and Conference (NZD, GMT 02:00) – RBNZ held rates steady at 1.75% in May, and this is expected to remain the case again in next week’s meeting. As Orr stated “We expect to keep the OCR at this expansionary level for a considerable period of time.” So no change in the rate setting is anticipated into 2019.

* Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to be flat in May, after a -2.1% figure in April. Transportation orders should fall -0.5%. Boeing orders fell to just zero from a dismal 4 in April, with the hit from problems with the Boeing 737 Max that prompted buyers to delay new purchase commitments.

Thursday – 27 June 2019

* Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 12:00) – The German HICP inflation is expected to be unchanged to 1.3% y/y.

* US Final Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30) – The final release of the Q1 GDP growth rate is expected unchanged from 3.1%, with downward revisions of -$6 bln for service consumption and -$1 bln for factory inventories.

* Tokyo CPI and Production Data (JPY, GMT 23:30) – The country’s main leading indicator of inflation is expected to have grown at 1.3% y/y in June, and at 1.2% y/y ex Fresh Food. Industrial Production should post a 2.6% decline y/y in May, compared to -1.1% in April.

Friday – 28 June 2019

* Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The Q1 GDP could be seen falling to 0.2%q/q  from the preliminary reading seen in May at 0.5%q/q. The ONS stats office noted there was a “dramatic fall” in UK car production in April, which was pinned squarely on Brexit uncertainty.

* Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The preliminary Euro Area CPI for June is anticipated to rise to 1.3% y/y from 1.2%y/y last month. The core inflation is seen at 1.0% y/y from 0.8% y/y.

* US Personal Spending (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 0.3% gain is seen in personal income in May after a 0.5% increase in April, alongside a 0.3% rise in May consumption.

* Chicago PMI  and Michigan Index (USD, GMT 13:45-14:00) – The Chicago PMI should be 55.0 from 54.2 last month. Michigan Index is the main US consumer confidence index and it is expected to remain flat following the drop to 97.9 from an 8-month high of 100.0 in May.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.