My brain bandwidth (averaged over the week) is low enough to make it difficult for me to mine a new comment in this forum chain
Luckily, most comments I wanted to make were already made by others.
My current "big picture" opinion on this matter (subject to change):
The current limit should be considered an opportunity rather than a threat: we can observe the effect of a hard limit before Bitcoin becomes really big. I don't think we will hit it really hard: the soft limit and the existence of "frivolous" transactions act as a buffer. The best way to prepare for the hard limit in the short term is:
- Add functionality to Bitcoin clients to guide the user in navigating the "transaction market" (choosing an appropriate fee for his transaction). This can be based on recently observed transaction fees in the block chain.
- Inform people that this is going to happen, and what the effects might be. We were all informed of the reward halving, and because of that, the event itself didn't cause any panic.
Sure, the current limit will slow down the Bitcoin economy, but to be honest, it is currently quite over-heated: in mainstream economies, >10%/yr is considered overheated, but Bitcoin adoption is currently even faster than Moore's law! We need time to develop secure off-blockchain payment systems based on Bitcoin (I'm working on this), to wait for people to have faster Internet and bigger hard drives and to reach consensus about the best block size limit method. Once transaction fees become painfully high and bigger blocks are no longer a problem for "non-commercial" owners of full nodes, the "hard fork" needs to be performed. Naturally, the "hard fork" decision needs to take place before "real problems" occur.
I am in favor of automatically adjusting the block size limit, if the adjustment method meets the following conditions:
- The block size limit remains sufficiently low to allow funding of an "unbreakable" difficulty level through transaction fees. "Unbreakable" means at least that beating the difficulty level is more costly that it will be profitable, for any organization (incl. governments).
- The block size limit remains sufficiently low to allow an average person to set up a full node with affordable investments. "Affordable" is such that some people will do this out of altruism.
- The block size limit remains sufficiently high to allow "large" personal transactions (e.g. >$1000) to take place with acceptable fee levels.
- It is not possible for miners or pool operators to perform the type of attack as described by the OP, either deliberately or not deliberately
- The adjusting method provides a significant advantage over a (more simple) constant value, e.g. it auto-adjusts to average hardware improvements
If no such method is found, I am in favor of increasing the block size limit to a higher constant value, as long as it meets the following conditions:
- The block size limit is sufficiently low to allow funding of an "unbreakable" difficulty level through transaction fees. "Unbreakable" means at least that beating the difficulty level is more costly that it will be profitable, for any organization (incl. governments).
- The block size limit is sufficiently low to allow an average person to set up a full node with affordable investments. "Affordable" is such that some people will do this out of altruism.
- The block size limit is sufficiently low to make it impossible for miners or pool operators to perform the type of attack as described by the OP, either deliberately or not deliberately
- The block size limit is sufficiently high to allow "large" personal transactions (e.g. >$1000) to take place with acceptable fee levels.
- Mining is likely to remain decentralized to a high degree, to avoid a "single point of control"
If no such level is possible, I'm not sure what to do. I would mean having to decide between two different kinds of centralization: either mining centralization, or payment processor centralization. I think we'd have to choose the one which will be the most reversable one, so that it can be reversed once hardware capabilities improve.