My general strategy is to take an expected future value, something simple like a linear interpolation from the past week or so. When the price jumps higher sell, when it's lower buy, but only a little bit. In the inevitable situation that the price jumps again, sell/buy more. Make sure you have enough reserves to double down 3 or 4 times. If you predict it wrong 4 times in a row, well then you lose.
That's called Martingale strategy and is an absolutely certain (probability=100%) way for anyone to go bust. Read any book on trading.
I would say this is gambler's strategy.
With unlimited reserves and zero trade commissions, your overall winning is guaranteed.
With limited reserves and some trade commissions, your overall losing is guaranteed.
The chance of blind predicting wrong 4 times in a row is 1/16 and you would lose the entire investment. The profit of predicting correctly after 1, 2 or 3 jumps will always be less than 1/16 of your entire investment.
So:
P=15/16 -> profit less than 1/16
P=1/16 -> lose 1
