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Topic: How could Pirate fuck your brains so well that even now many believe in him? - page 4. (Read 10914 times)

labestiol

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Quote from: unclescrooge on August 25, 2012, 05:27:15 PM

No it doesn't not make much sense, price has been going up since his beginning of btcst

From what i know, he began borrowing coins around a year ago. Then what does a degenerate overconfident gambler would do when his bet goes bad ? double down.

EDIT : what do you think about that post ?

unclescrooge

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No it doesn't not make much sense, price has been going up since his beginning of btcst

labestiol

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Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on August 25, 2012, 04:56:11 PM

That is pretty common in ponzi schemes. Madoff for example ran a traditional hedge fund for for well over two decades until he made some really bad trades. Fearing his clients would move their money he faked trades for the quarter. Of course now he essentially had "juice" running on the difference between the real books and the fake books. As investors continued to expect returns on the fake numbers that difference required him to fake trades qtr after qtr. Eventually he reached the point he could no longer "go legit" if he wanted to. He was committed to the ponzi because deviaiton from it would get him caught. Of course no ponzi can continue forever but he was "stuck" so he played it well and kept the ponzi cashflow + (more coming in than paying out) for years. Had the economic downturn not spooked investors he might still be paying out dividends regularly but they would be fake and eventually something would have caused the ponzi to fail.

I agree he was probably not thinking about going ponzi from the start.
My favorite hypothesis is that pirate was shorting bitcoins, and it was working great at the beginning. Then the market recovered, and he doubled down as much as he could. Not the fanciest theory, but would make so much sense...

AndrewBUD

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Pirate is buying all the assets back..... Once he has purchased enough of them back he will have the coins to pay back the bigger investors... .

All the big lenders are buying back pirate assets......... inside trading screwing the masses..... ( just what I think )

cryptoanarchist

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+1 to the title of this thread Cheesy

Cheesy

el_rlee

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Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on August 25, 2012, 04:56:11 PM

Madoff offered ~11% per year. Pirate offered 7% per week. Pretty obvious why one imploded much faster than the other.

Neither of them ever came up with a balance sheet.

conspirosphere.tk

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Bitcoin is antisemitic

Quote from: mobodick on August 25, 2012, 03:56:46 PM

Quote from: Tomatocage on August 25, 2012, 03:22:20 PM

If Pirate was going to bail with the money, dude would be long gone by now.

Do you know pirate has not spoken for 23 hours?

...and he could do it liberally from any place in the world, just for more lulz.

DeathAndTaxes

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Gerald Davis

Quote from: el_rlee on August 25, 2012, 04:51:37 PM

Stating the obvious: pirate payed his interest so far, regularly and punctually. The amount in each account didn't take more than a week to calculate until now.

I often read that people say something like 'yeah, he might not have all the BTC right now, but he will play the markets and come up with it'.

Assuming that pirates ID known to the forum isn't a fake and that the one showing up in Vegas was really him I would say that he himself has a strong believe in the 'system' he is/was running. Probably he had only best intentions when he started and really believed he could gamble this interest out of the market. Bitcoin fluctuates enough to make one % each and every day if you are only skilled enough. Or maybe if you would only have enough funds to control the price.
Turns out: nope, not so easy. The thing grew over his head, more and more juggling with the funds until it finally collapsed. I guess he is far from the maximum profit he would been able to make if he would have plotted this as a criminal enterprise from the beginning.
Lacking of funds means more risk gets taken to make good for the losses, etc. The rest is often written history.

That is pretty common in ponzi schemes. Madoff for example ran a traditional hedge fund for for well over two decades until he made some really bad trades. Fearing his clients would move their money he faked trades for the quarter. Of course now he essentially had "juice" running on the difference between the real books and the fake books. As investors continued to expect returns on the fake numbers that difference required him to fake trades qtr after qtr. Eventually he reached the point he could no longer "go legit" if he wanted to. He was committed to the ponzi because deviaiton from it would get him caught. Of course no ponzi can continue forever but he was "stuck" so he played it well and kept the ponzi cashflow + (more coming in than paying out) for years. Had the economic downturn not spooked investors he might still be paying out dividends regularly but they would be fake and eventually something would have caused the ponzi to fail.

Madoff offered ~11% per year. Pirate offered 7% per week. Pretty obvious why one imploded much faster than the other.

el_rlee

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Stating the obvious: pirate payed his interest so far, regularly and punctually. The amount in each account didn't take more than a week to calculate until now.

I often read that people say something like 'yeah, he might not have all the BTC right now, but he will play the markets and come up with it'.

Assuming that pirates ID known to the forum isn't a fake and that the one showing up in Vegas was really him I would say that he himself has a strong believe in the 'system' he is/was running. Probably he had only best intentions when he started and really believed he could gamble this interest out of the market. Bitcoin fluctuates enough to make one % each and every day if you are only skilled enough. Or maybe if you would only have enough funds to control the price.
Turns out: nope, not so easy. The thing grew over his head, more and more juggling with the funds until it finally collapsed. I guess he is far from the maximum profit he would been able to make if he would have plotted this as a criminal enterprise from the beginning.
Lacking of funds means more risk gets taken to make good for the losses, etc. The rest is often written history.

Bascule

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Quote from: Tomatocage on August 25, 2012, 03:22:20 PM

If Pirate was going to bail with the money, dude would be long gone by now.

This is exactly what the OP was talking about. If pirate made a post saying "It was a ponzi scheme" Tomatocage would still think he's getting his money back.

mobodick

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Quote from: Tomatocage on August 25, 2012, 03:22:20 PM

If Pirate was going to bail with the money, dude would be long gone by now.

Do you know pirate has not spoken for 23 hours?

P4man

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Quote from: Piper67 on August 25, 2012, 03:44:53 PM

Quote from: BobbyJo on August 25, 2012, 03:32:19 PM

The issue isnt Pirate bailing with the money. The issue is that the money never existed and everyone is sitting around waiting to be paid out funds thats are not there!

Precisely! There never was 500k BTC in an actual wallet somewhere. There were promises, ledgers, calculations and all other forms of ideas, but not half a million bitcoins.

This close enough for you?
https://blockchain.info/address/1DkyBEKt5S2GDtv7aQw6rQepAvnsRyHoYM

Piper67

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Quote from: BobbyJo on August 25, 2012, 03:32:19 PM

The issue isnt Pirate bailing with the money. The issue is that the money never existed and everyone is sitting around waiting to be paid out funds thats are not there!

Precisely! There never was 500k BTC in an actual wallet somewhere. There were promises, ledgers, calculations and all other forms of ideas, but not half a million bitcoins.

BobbyJo

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The issue isnt Pirate bailing with the money. The issue is that the money never existed and everyone is sitting around waiting to be paid out funds thats are not there!

fcmatt

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Quote from: Tomatocage on August 25, 2012, 03:22:20 PM

If Pirate was going to bail with the money, dude would be long gone by now.

Ponzi operators often have ego, draw things out as long as possible to wear down people, and try to fade away without reprecussions once they see where wind is blowing...

Tomatocage

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brb keeping up with the Kardashians

If Pirate was going to bail with the money, dude would be long gone by now.

muyuu

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Quote from: barbarousrelic on August 25, 2012, 10:33:53 AM

I've got to admit I am a little embarrassed at the Bitcoin community's gullibility to such an obvious scam.

Any big community will have a number of fools, no need to be embarrassed by them.

Nefario

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GLBSE Support [email protected]

Quote from: barbarousrelic on August 25, 2012, 11:35:28 AM

Quote from: markm on August 25, 2012, 11:00:05 AM

Quote from: barbarousrelic on August 25, 2012, 10:33:53 AM

I've got to admit I am a little embarrassed at the Bitcoin community's gullibility to such an obvious scam.

So basically never attribute to collusion that which can be passed off as ignorance / stupidity / foolishness / being a victim?

(Oh look, a ponzi! Better get in quick, get my capital out fast, and make sure to suck in lots of other people who if they follow me in fast enough might even also manage to turn a profit on it... Oh, wait, almost forgot, pretend I didn't recognise it as a ponzi!)

-MarkM-

For a small number of people to profit from the collusion you suggest requires a much larger number of ignorant/stupid/foolish victims.

In Ireland (maybe elsewhere) we have this thing called "The bigger fool" theory, the idea being you would always be able to sell your house for more than you got it (never mind the price you paid) as long as there was a bigger fool to come along and buy it.

It wasn't until well after the crash (house prices collapsed) that Irish people stopped thinking house prices would grow forever.

It's not like the information wasn't there, just that people chose to ignore it because they were greedy, and got what they deserved.

el_rlee

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Gauging by the trades of TYGRR.BOND-P on GLBSE I would say that most people which believed in pirate and therefore bought the stock still do. The volume running so far is small.

Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on August 25, 2012, 10:22:07 AM

Maybe 10% of the face value.

Seams buyers think 0.32BTC, so 32% of face value. Sellers order book starts at 0.53 - if you want to buy > 1000pc you need pay almost the full price. Not much discount in light of the current circumstances.

justusranvier

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Quote from: el_rlee on August 25, 2012, 04:55:08 AM

Is the human soul really made in way that makes it vulnerable for such scams by nature?

No, it is not.

The reason we know that humans aren't naturally vulnerable is because society must spend a great deal of time and effort indoctrinating children with propaganda, bribes and threats in order to make them believe various myths.

Observing the behavior of people who have been through cultural indoctrination and making inferrences about human nature based on their behavior makes as much sense as looking at someone who just got hit by a car and using their injured condition to make inferrences about human physical capabilities. "I guess humans are non-ambulatory by nature because this one can't seem to walk."

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