How do we know retail is FOMO-ing into Bitcoin?

darkangel11

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Quote from: Srubek on May 25, 2024, 03:45:08 AM

Quote from: darkangel11 on May 23, 2024, 03:06:09 PM

Quote from: Srubek on May 18, 2024, 08:51:32 AM

In the current market, I’m convinced the uptrend is mainly due to the ETFs buying BTC (https://farside.co.uk/?p=1321). But I’m curious, what metrics do you all use to figure this out?

So according to you it's all ETFs and the halving has nothing to do with it?
IMO halving defines the cycles of bitcoin and the first time that happened people were surely surprised, but then it happened again and again and again and every time the price reacted positively to each and every halving. I'm sure that by now people have figured it out.

Halving for sure plays a role, I just feel this time its different and retail (us) is not in. I see more institutional investors in than ever.

There's always people like you in every cycle who come in saying "this time is different".
I remember in 2013 people were saying that since Gox went bankrupt and that was the biggest exchange in the world it's going to be a different bear market. That this time it's really over for bitcoin.
Then came 2017 and we had ICOs and people went full retard on altcoins, calling it an altcoin cycle and saying that since bitcoin went 20x from the last ATH this time it's different, the world is going all in and we'll see $30k and it all went crashing down.
Then in 2020 people were saying that this time is different because of the pandemic and the bull market is cancelled because bitcoin went up to 14k and crashed down to 4k.
Then came 2021 and that time it was really different but in the other direction as it was expected for bitcoin to go at least 5x to 100k, but all it did was 3.5x...
So, I guess this time is going to be different again because bitcoin has never went past the last ATH just to stop immediately and start going sideways for months.
Each time is different but also the same.

tranthidung

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Quote from: TravelMug on May 23, 2024, 03:37:47 PM

Or maybe the the fear and greed index will do?

https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

Not sure what is the historical numbers that we have seen before, but it is goes 80% or higher, I think there is a incoming FOMO and retail investors are pouring some of their money because somewhat they know that market is going into a parabolic rise in the next day.

Fear and Greed index is displayed with the chart to make it more easily connected with Bitcoin price.

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-fear-and-greed-index/

Your given site has a chart too but it is in a pure grey color so the chart from LookintoBitcoin.com is more helpful.

glendall

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because around me, no one says bitcoin, even asks what bitcoin is, so 100% in my retail location don't understand what bitcoin is. even if they knew it would be better if they kept quiet because it would be safe for taxation
so there is no influence Bitcoin ETF has no influence at all

Srubek

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Quote from: darkangel11 on May 23, 2024, 03:06:09 PM

Quote from: Srubek on May 18, 2024, 08:51:32 AM

In the current market, I’m convinced the uptrend is mainly due to the ETFs buying BTC (https://farside.co.uk/?p=1321). But I’m curious, what metrics do you all use to figure this out?

So according to you it's all ETFs and the halving has nothing to do with it?
IMO halving defines the cycles of bitcoin and the first time that happened people were surely surprised, but then it happened again and again and again and every time the price reacted positively to each and every halving. I'm sure that by now people have figured it out.

Halving for sure plays a role, I just feel this time its different and retail (us) is not in. I see more institutional investors in than ever.

oktana

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For anyone using gut feeling, it isn’t enough. While I think you can tell from the activities like you speak off, it could also be that these investors aren’t FOMO-ing in. However, you can use the assumption that they are FOMO-ing in. If that, it has to be about watching for when there’s a Bitcoin related event to see the increment.

TravelMug

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Or maybe the the fear and greed index will do?

https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

Not sure what is the historical numbers that we have seen before, but it is goes 80% or higher, I think there is a incoming FOMO and retail investors are pouring some of their money because somewhat they know that market is going into a parabolic rise in the next day.

darkangel11

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Don't let others control your BTC -> self custody

Quote from: Srubek on May 18, 2024, 08:51:32 AM

In the current market, I’m convinced the uptrend is mainly due to the ETFs buying BTC (https://farside.co.uk/?p=1321). But I’m curious, what metrics do you all use to figure this out?

So according to you it's all ETFs and the halving has nothing to do with it?
IMO halving defines the cycles of bitcoin and the first time that happened people were surely surprised, but then it happened again and again and again and every time the price reacted positively to each and every halving. I'm sure that by now people have figured it out.

electronicash

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Quote from: wiss19 on May 23, 2024, 12:44:52 PM

Quote from: kryptqnick on May 19, 2024, 10:48:16 AM

I think the more objective approaches suggested in the thread, such as using Google trends and some other resources. To me, it's important to not just watch the global trend but see what's going on in my own country. So when there's local news about someone starting to accept Bitcoin, and especially if it's not a standalone case but is something multiple parties are doing, that's a good indicator to me. I also think that crypto fear & greed index can be useful to get the overall sentiment, but it's not specific to retail trends.

When we say global, I think it already includes our own country but before others it would be great if we can start on our own, so that we will know if BTC is now accepted if it's not accepted yet or it is now restricted if it's allowed before. The word FOMO does not only mean one individual, so what you said about multiple cases does make sense.

If we are lazy, we can just refer to fear & greed index website, or tool/app because I think they also have it. Even if we say it's not specific to retail, I think that's fine and I think others can also do the same FOMO thing if they see that someone is doing it. Same goes to the retail when they saw others who are fomoing.

fear & greed index website is the easiest to find out. it always tells the truth though since its based on the market. when the prices are way too high when traders only expect the price to be $150,000 and yet the price goes more than $250,000 i think people will really be FOMOing even those that are not in crypto and they may actually reply on twitter threads why they didn't listen to the kid in the neighborhood who told them to buy BTC.

wiss19

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Quote from: kryptqnick on May 19, 2024, 10:48:16 AM

I think the more objective approaches suggested in the thread, such as using Google trends and some other resources. To me, it's important to not just watch the global trend but see what's going on in my own country. So when there's local news about someone starting to accept Bitcoin, and especially if it's not a standalone case but is something multiple parties are doing, that's a good indicator to me. I also think that crypto fear & greed index can be useful to get the overall sentiment, but it's not specific to retail trends.

When we say global, I think it already includes our own country but before others it would be great if we can start on our own, so that we will know if BTC is now accepted if it's not accepted yet or it is now restricted if it's allowed before. The word FOMO does not only mean one individual, so what you said about multiple cases does make sense.

If we are lazy, we can just refer to fear & greed index website, or tool/app because I think they also have it. Even if we say it's not specific to retail, I think that's fine and I think others can also do the same FOMO thing if they see that someone is doing it. Same goes to the retail when they saw others who are fomoing.

Srubek

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Quote from: Bulltard on May 19, 2024, 03:22:24 AM

Quote from: Srubek on May 18, 2024, 04:45:36 PM

Quote from: Bulltard on May 18, 2024, 03:38:38 PM

fyi... YOU ARE RETAIL

How do you know?

i am too (and i have a multi-million portfolio) . we all are.

maybe google what "retail" is mr. ceo of blackrock.

Okay. Mr. Bulltard. Cheesy

pawel7777

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Quote from: JollyGood on May 18, 2024, 10:49:38 AM

Right now I am not stating this is the case here but generally when I read the section I have quoted from your OP, I automatically become highly sceptical of the motives behind the post especially when it comes from a newbie account.

From my experience, in the suspicious cases it usually happens when puppeteers that are trying to build up their accounts and are hoping for merits as they try to invite discussion but as I said, I am not stating that is the case here but I remain highly sceptical.

Quote from: Srubek on May 18, 2024, 08:51:32 AM

Looking forward to hearing your thoughts!

If you're not saying that he's a puppet account then why would you post this at all? What were your intentions behind making that post?

Should I feel indirectly accused of being a "puppeteer" because I sent him 1 merit?

We might be approaching another bull run, so it's more than expected to see newbies asking for advice on sell signals, etc, and asking for the community's opinion.
The forum activity in 2023 dropped by 30% as compared to 2022 and 2024 is not looking great either. Who are you helping by attacking newbies like this?
I really like your contributions to other topics, but I don't think you're fair here and I think you owe the guy a little apology, unless you have something more solid to back it up.

kryptqnick

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I think the more objective approaches suggested in the thread, such as using Google trends and some other resources. To me, it's important to not just watch the global trend but see what's going on in my own country. So when there's local news about someone starting to accept Bitcoin, and especially if it's not a standalone case but is something multiple parties are doing, that's a good indicator to me. I also think that crypto fear & greed index can be useful to get the overall sentiment, but it's not specific to retail trends.

Hamza2424

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Hmm, Op it's not that complex to get such things from the market psychology, just keep an eye on the volume and market developments, A very valuable phrase in this highly volatile market is "be greedy when everyone is fearful, and be fearful when everyone is greedy" even though everyone knows this phrase still maximum people don't follow it they just use to say it.

You'll get it by a small recent phase when the market was falling freely, people were in fear and making some stupid predictions to buy on the lower level, haha from the 59k to 57k range they were expecting a range of 54k to 52k haha wasn't that crazy, and now the market is driving good today 57k and just wait for a break off to 70k haha people will make crazy entries that will be called FOMO.

Bulltard

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Quote from: Srubek on May 18, 2024, 04:45:36 PM

Quote from: Bulltard on May 18, 2024, 03:38:38 PM

fyi... YOU ARE RETAIL

How do you know?

i am too (and i have a multi-million portfolio) . we all are.

maybe google what "retail" is mr. ceo of blackrock.

Srubek

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Quote from: CODE200 on May 18, 2024, 10:50:21 PM

For me, when the price is pumping so fast, that's the tell-tale sign for me that retail investors are on a frenzy and are at the FOMO stage, that's the only time that you would be trying to buy bitcoin because you don't want to miss out on the possibility that the price of bitcoin is going to go up even more and it would be a really sad thing for someone to miss out, plus people don't really have a lot of money to spend when it comes to investing in bitcoin, most retail investors have other bills to pay after all.

Do you believe retail can really drag the market as crazy? I know we have seen this with GameStop but do you believe this can happen with BTC as well? I believe the current run is caused by ETF Funds.

CODE200

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For me, when the price is pumping so fast, that's the tell-tale sign for me that retail investors are on a frenzy and are at the FOMO stage, that's the only time that you would be trying to buy bitcoin because you don't want to miss out on the possibility that the price of bitcoin is going to go up even more and it would be a really sad thing for someone to miss out, plus people don't really have a lot of money to spend when it comes to investing in bitcoin, most retail investors have other bills to pay after all.

BlackBoss_

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Quote from: marlo1001 on May 18, 2024, 09:52:16 AM

Google trends + exchanges volume + etf volume, pretty easy formula for raw estimate

I agree with you in most of them but disagree with you on ETF volume because investors in Bitcoin Spot ETFs are not retail investors. They are big and institutional investors most likely but Bitcoin Spot ETF money flows do have big effects on the market in general and can affect retail investors too.

We can use some on chain indicators like addresses with small balances that can partially represent retail investors.
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/addresses-greater-than-0-01-btc/
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/addresses-greater-than-0-1-btc/

Charts for addresses with balances about 0.01 BTC and 0.1 BTC + can be good to see recent actions from retail investors but whales can have their leftover addresses with small balances too.

CryptoHeadlineNews

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First of all, before I deliberate on this, I will like us to understand the concept. What is Fear Of Missing Out? Fear Of Missing Out is literally a strategy people used into either buying, acquiring or venturing into a trending commodity, so as not to be left out when it becomes of more value in the future.

So factors that necessitate FOMO
1. When there is a trending commodity/asset who just got over hyped.
2. When the value of an asset has had a significant increase within a short period of time, that is, probably 5-10% within 24hrs to 48y

As these two are enough to create a Fear Of Missing Out by investors who will be wanting to ripe an assets next return of investment when it's value goes higher. (E.g just like the recent price of Bitcoin from $61k to $66k in 24hrs)

tabas

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Aside from google trends, when you see that many "experts" are starting to say that the market is going to dump anytime soon. So, with these experts telling from Twitter(X) or from any platform that they're in and as well as with the interview in the likes of Bloomberg and other financial segments in the global televised programs, you'd see them telling the opposite of what should happen. I'm not sure if many still remember that when these "experts" tell that we're going to crash, the market is going oppositely and it goes up and the same if they tell their sentiment about dump, the opposite reaction of the market comes.

Srubek

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Quote from: Bulltard on May 18, 2024, 03:38:38 PM

Quote from: Srubek on May 18, 2024, 08:51:32 AM

Hey everyone,

I’ve been pondering the mysteries of the Bitcoin market lately and I just had to ask—how do we know when retail investors are FOMO-ing into Bitcoin?

I mean, we all have our tell-tale signs, right? Personally, I keep an eye on Google searches with keywords related to Bitcoin to see if retail interest is picking up. And I know people are really getting interested when my gardener starts talking about Bitcoin!

In the current market, I’m convinced the uptrend is mainly due to the ETFs buying BTC (https://farside.co.uk/?p=1321). But I’m curious, what metrics do you all use to figure this out?

Are there other specific indicators or just gut feelings?

Share your funniest and most accurate signs that retail is diving headfirst into Bitcoin.

Looking forward to hearing your thoughts!

fyi... YOU ARE RETAIL

How do you know?

Topic: How do we know retail is FOMO-ing into Bitcoin? (Read 279 times)