How do we know retail is FOMO-ing into Bitcoin? - page 2.

thecodebear

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Quote from: Srubek on May 18, 2024, 08:51:32 AM

when my gardener starts talking about Bitcoin!

Just wanted to point out this is a terrible indicator. I see people make this sort of claim all the time. A single person talking about Bitcoin means nothing. People all the time are finding out about Bitcoin and getting into it. People always make this claim: as soon as a person I know in real life mentions Bitcoin I know the market has peaked and its time to sell. lol. That is horrendously anecdotal and means nothing. A gardener, or taxi driver, or dentist, or whoever, is just as likely to get into Bitcoin as anyone else. Having a single person mention Bitcoin to you in real life says nothing about the state of the market.

If it was like all sorts of people you know from different walks of life are suddenly all talking about Bitcoin, then that would likely signal a retail frenzy is going on and the top could be coming in days/weeks/months. That's very different than "a single person I know mentioned Bitcoin" lol. I always cringe when I hear this sort of claim.
End of rant.

Bulltard

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Quote from: Srubek on May 18, 2024, 08:51:32 AM

Hey everyone,

I’ve been pondering the mysteries of the Bitcoin market lately and I just had to ask—how do we know when retail investors are FOMO-ing into Bitcoin?

I mean, we all have our tell-tale signs, right? Personally, I keep an eye on Google searches with keywords related to Bitcoin to see if retail interest is picking up. And I know people are really getting interested when my gardener starts talking about Bitcoin!

In the current market, I’m convinced the uptrend is mainly due to the ETFs buying BTC (https://farside.co.uk/?p=1321). But I’m curious, what metrics do you all use to figure this out?

Are there other specific indicators or just gut feelings?

Share your funniest and most accurate signs that retail is diving headfirst into Bitcoin.

Looking forward to hearing your thoughts!

fyi... YOU ARE RETAIL

The Cryptovator

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There are some reasons for Bitcoin FOMO. So you have to stay updated about upcoming Bitcoin events. For me, I do follow some free Telegram channels where I can get early news. They do research and share it on their channels. So I don't need to search on Google or any other specific websites. FOMO always comes from positive news. So it's very important to gain knowledge about upcoming events. You need to find such good channels from which you can get the latest news quickly. Otherwise, every time you would need to use Google,.

Reatim

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Quote from: Srubek on May 18, 2024, 08:51:32 AM

Are there other specific indicators or just gut feelings?

Share your funniest and most accurate signs that retail is diving headfirst into Bitcoin.

It is surely when the people around you starts talking about bitcoin. Even if it might be your grandparents. Actually especially so. You might also notice a lot more of shops accepting bitcoin. So far though I have not seen these signs in my country yet. Bitcoin still seems like a mystery to a lot of people.

peter0425

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I don’t think I can share a very accurate one, all is just simply observations anyway. Everything is speculation so we can not expect a 100% accuracy.

However, I think social media can be a good indicator of what is trending or what’s not. So, by looking at it we can determine where the retail investors are going for as of the moment. Of course, market performance is also a good indicator

Srubek

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Quote from: OgNasty on May 18, 2024, 02:49:57 PM

Quote from: marlo1001 on May 18, 2024, 09:52:16 AM

Google trends + exchanges volume + etf volume, pretty easy formula for raw estimate

I think historically Google Trends has been an excellent way to see with data whether or not the average person is looking into Bitcoin. Currently it's almost like Bitcoin is still at the cycle lows the way it's being ignored by the average person. I think a lot of people got burned in 2021 and won't give Bitcoin a second look as a result, but there are still plenty of young folks who are stacking and being introduced to crypto at younger and younger ages. I think we probably have a year or slightly longer before Google Trends maxes out in it's Bitcoin searches, but when it happens I don't think you'll need to go searching for ways to see it.

I initially started this thread because I had a lot of guys around me asking me about BTC. They were here in 2021 and they are again here now. So it got me worried whether retail is already FOMOing in.

But got your point, people that got burned will be very careful this cycle.

OgNasty

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Quote from: marlo1001 on May 18, 2024, 09:52:16 AM

Google trends + exchanges volume + etf volume, pretty easy formula for raw estimate

I think historically Google Trends has been an excellent way to see with data whether or not the average person is looking into Bitcoin. Currently it's almost like Bitcoin is still at the cycle lows the way it's being ignored by the average person. I think a lot of people got burned in 2021 and won't give Bitcoin a second look as a result, but there are still plenty of young folks who are stacking and being introduced to crypto at younger and younger ages. I think we probably have a year or slightly longer before Google Trends maxes out in it's Bitcoin searches, but when it happens I don't think you'll need to go searching for ways to see it.

Srubek

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Quote from: marlo1001 on May 18, 2024, 09:52:16 AM

Google trends + exchanges volume + etf volume, pretty easy formula for raw estimate

Seems like a good formula. I do the same. Would throw new crypto youtubers into the mix. Cheesy

Srubek

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Quote from: JollyGood on May 18, 2024, 10:49:38 AM

Right now I am not stating this is the case here but generally when I read the section I have quoted from your OP, I automatically become highly sceptical of the motives behind the post especially when it comes from a newbie account.

From my experience, in the suspicious cases it usually happens when puppeteers that are trying to build up their accounts and are hoping for merits as they try to invite discussion but as I said, I am not stating that is the case here but I remain highly sceptical.

Quote from: Srubek on May 18, 2024, 08:51:32 AM

Looking forward to hearing your thoughts!

Sorry mate, but are new comers not welcomed at BTC Talk? I am generally asking because I want to know what others are checking.

When retail buys, I start to sell.

JollyGood

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Right now I am not stating this is the case here but generally when I read the section I have quoted from your OP, I automatically become highly sceptical of the motives behind the post especially when it comes from a newbie account.

From my experience, in the suspicious cases it usually happens when puppeteers that are trying to build up their accounts and are hoping for merits as they try to invite discussion but as I said, I am not stating that is the case here but I remain highly sceptical.

Quote from: Srubek on May 18, 2024, 08:51:32 AM

Looking forward to hearing your thoughts!

pawel7777

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Quote from: Srubek on May 18, 2024, 08:51:32 AM

I mean, we all have our tell-tale signs, right? Personally, I keep an eye on Google searches with keywords related to Bitcoin to see if retail interest is picking up. And I know people are really getting interested when my gardener starts talking about Bitcoin!

This one right here is the biggest one for me. When random people all of a sudden start talking about investing in Bitcoin (or often in other crypto, because, you know, Bitcoin is too expensive), then you know we either reached the peak or are about to.
Another metric is the growing popularity of Bitcoin trading apps on Google Play or in Apple Appstore. I started a similar topic a long time ago and somebody pointed out there was a correlation between the Coinbase app being ranked 1 in Appstore and Bitcoin's price reaching the peak.

Aanuoluwatofunmi

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Being a bitcoiner, you need to go online on a daily basis to check on the updates concerning the crypto networks, bitcoin network and you can make use of different apps and platforms for such purpose, this is not to give you fear or scare you, but to ensure that you get to know all that is happening around the bitcoin and crypto environment daily, we can also make use of the market chart in knowing the current price, tracking on the previous and checking on any other coin as well as we may want to have it, staying tuned to all crypto channels and news updates is very important also because there we get to know what is currently involved in bitcoin.

kentrolla

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Retail investor are the most confused souls as they are the first one to do FOMOing or even panic selling. It's not new we have been witnessing this for years now and I think this is something which benefits whales more than anyone as they try to shape market behaviour to their benefit. But I don't think any tenured user will not be FOMOing as they accumulate it during the bear as well and do DCA throughout the year as they don't overbuy or panic sell

Beparanf

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Continuous green candle on daily basis with increasing trading volume is a clear sign that retail is fomo-ing since whale manipulators usually can’t keep up the buying position for a long time with increasing volume.

If you saw that Bitcoin is behaving unstoppable on pumping for consumption days then retail investors plus whales is riding together just to chase the profit for late FOMO buys.

Usually price action for daily to weekly basis is the key factor to determine what you are asking.

marlo1001

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Google trends + exchanges volume + etf volume, pretty easy formula for raw estimate

Srubek

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Quote from: SquirrelJulietGarden on May 18, 2024, 08:58:56 AM

Quote from: Srubek on May 18, 2024, 08:51:32 AM

I’ve been pondering the mysteries of the Bitcoin market lately and I just had to ask—how do we know when retail investors are FOMO-ing into Bitcoin?

You can look at Google trend and some indicators for Bitcoin bubble that bases on Google trend and some stats from social media platforms.
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=bitcoin&hl=en
https://www.coinglass.com/pro/i/bitcoinBubble
https://www.theblock.co/data/alternative-crypto-metrics/web-traffic

You can look at Bitcoin heatmap that is given by Glassnode in their report like this one
https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-18-2024/

You can simply see what's happening around you. If many people around you start to talk too much about Bitcoin, this market while just previous months, they did not care about it, it's good signal that retail investors are coming.

Thanks mate. I did not know about theblock.co. That looks like up to date website to keep an eye on.

SquirrelJulietGarden

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Quote from: Srubek on May 18, 2024, 08:51:32 AM

I’ve been pondering the mysteries of the Bitcoin market lately and I just had to ask—how do we know when retail investors are FOMO-ing into Bitcoin?

You can look at Google trend and some indicators for Bitcoin bubble that bases on Google trend and some stats from social media platforms.
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=bitcoin&hl=en
https://www.coinglass.com/pro/i/bitcoinBubble
https://www.theblock.co/data/alternative-crypto-metrics/web-traffic

You can look at Bitcoin heatmap that is given by Glassnode in their report like this one
https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-18-2024/

You can simply see what's happening around you. If many people around you start to talk too much about Bitcoin, this market while just previous months, they did not care about it, it's good signal that retail investors are coming.

Srubek

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Activity: 11

Merit: 1

Hey everyone,

I’ve been pondering the mysteries of the Bitcoin market lately and I just had to ask—how do we know when retail investors are FOMO-ing into Bitcoin?

I mean, we all have our tell-tale signs, right? Personally, I keep an eye on Google searches with keywords related to Bitcoin to see if retail interest is picking up. And I know people are really getting interested when my gardener starts talking about Bitcoin!

In the current market, I’m convinced the uptrend is mainly due to the ETFs buying BTC (https://farside.co.uk/?p=1321). But I’m curious, what metrics do you all use to figure this out?

Are there other specific indicators or just gut feelings?

Share your funniest and most accurate signs that retail is diving headfirst into Bitcoin.

Looking forward to hearing your thoughts!

Topic: How do we know retail is FOMO-ing into Bitcoin? - page 2. (Read 279 times)