Topic: How do you suggest I handle incorrect price predictions? - page 3. (Read 695 times)

1 btc = 1 btc

do not think of its $ value

just think of how many can you acquire in the next 5 years.

I mean, it's called a "prediction", a forecast. It's not set in stone, it's simply an idea that pertains to what you "think" what would happen. And while it is frustrating, the bad thing here is you're frustrated because of shame. Yes, you failed yourself, but I doubt you'd feel that bad if it was only you, buy you shared it to others, which isn't wrong, but as I said, predictions are what you "think", others blindly trusting it and it failing shouldn't be your fault or problem.

I've had my fair share of incorrect predictions when I first started (and it was also the reason why I stuck to DCA, though it didn't stop me from making random guesses about prices every now and then). It was really difficult, and rather nerve-wracking as well since I did it in the dailies, like every minor movement. I guess my solution was just to run away since I went to DCA lmao.

This is the reason why most TA have this if and else statement.  Since we don't have the grasp of what is happening in the future, if we predict Bitcoin prices we should present it in both ways. One way is when Bitcoin market  sentiment become bullish and the other one is when Bitcoin market's bearish sentiment become worse. Also, we should always state the price in ranges since it is more likely to hit the mark than just stating an exact number.

In case my prediction is way off, I will look for the possible reason why Bitcoin price move away from my price prediction then if I happen to declare it to someone, I will admit that I was wrong and will try to explain using the found reason why Bitcoin is in different price.

I liked what Benjamin Graham said in his book “The Intelligent Investor” about the pendulum. I will replace the word “market” with the word “bitcoin”. Bitcoin is a pendulum that swings from excessive optimism to underestimation of pessimistic sentiments. Nobody knows where this pendulum will swing. Failing to predict the price of Bitcoin is quite common. We must learn to tolerate failure in prediction as part of our development process. If we don't learn to take this lightly, sooner or later it will drive us crazy and we will lose our portfolio completely.

Speculate all  you want because this is a speculative market afterall, there are really just that people who are really that too emotional when it comes to their actions and tends out to be that minding that much on which
coming into a point that whenever they do make out such bad decision or guesses then they do really get disappointed or having that kind of action which is something will really be not that goes easily.
If you do find yourself that impulsive then try to avoid out such situation on trying out to distract yourself whenever you do have that kind of impulsive reaction but if you are really not able to avoid and make out
that kind of emotional approach then just simply let it burst. For sure sooner or later you would really be getting used to it on the time that you would really be able to realize on how this market behaves.

Market is volatile and you should really get used to it so that you wont really be that highly reactive whenever it do really be able to hit up a specific level which is totally opposing on what you are predicting.
This is why its really that important on having that emotional control since you are dealing on a market which is really that unpredictable.

If you knew all that, why then do you feel frustrated about your predictions not hitting the bull's eye? Except you're one who makes a boast of your predictions under certainty to your friends that they must come to pass but they don't happen that way. Everybody in this industry knows how unpredictable it's. So, I don't see why anyone should be flummoxed if it happens otherwise.

If you're better at monthly prediction, stick to it. By the way, price prediction should serve you a purpose of knowing what to expect so you can better prepare your trades or hodlings. It should be for your growth and betterment, not necessarily for applause.

Do nothing! Don't get depressed over it.

Get to work, learn TA and then keep an eye on fundamentals. This industry is influenced mostly by news (fundamentals) than TA. However, when there's no news coming, TA takes over. That's why the knowledge of both should be a necessity for anyone in cryptos.

Don't let your wrong predictions bother you because it is not easy to predict what will happen tomorrow since you are not a seer. Bitcoin volatile price makes it unpredictable,which you know this. It is better you stop your predictions if you dont want to make more riddicule of yourself until you have known the right tools that you can use to predict the price. If I were i will only concentrate on hodling for long and not claiming one bitcoin price movement speculator because it isn't working out for you. This will make your friends not believe on bitcoin much due to your incorrect bitcoin price prediction,if they haven't made up their mind to invest yet.

Most of the time we think that we can predict the price right neglecting how the volatility of the market affects the price and possibly changes the trend. Indeed, the best thing to do is to buy at a cheaper price and hold, the wait for the price to rise before selling. But what we usually do after buying Bitcoin, we already think about making a profit right away but if we fail, we then also think it is a scam and worthless investment. In many cases this happens to us, some people have already learned from it while some have not.

Yes but not because of the high risk and also the difficulty of predicting then you avoid or think that trading is a waste of time or money, because there are also many of them who eventually achieve success as a result of learning and hard work, I say people who want to succeed in trading are only those who dare to take risks and process consistently. But yes there may be some who are interested and some who are not interested in trading at all, it goes back to them.

Oh yes, for the problem of trading signals themselves, to be honest, I also don't believe in them, they look like they really convince us and tell us to join their signal group with the lure of consistent wins, at first I was quite interested in it but when I tried it it turned out to be useless, they only made me often hit MC, it was useless. I think okay maybe there are some of them that are real but mostly now there are more fake signal providers like that, believe me they just want a few percent of your losses, there is no other purpose other than they want to make profits from all members. What you say is very true friend and I also start from now on it is better to start trading on my own with the knowledge I have from learning, remember in trading do not depend on others because it will make it difficult for you to develop,
I also just realized this.

^ Nothing, just accept the fact that BTC price is unpredictable and don't expect profit in a short period of time.
Dont focus on the price prediction but instead, hold it and have your own goal of making a profit. If you bought 1 BTC at the $30k mark price it must you will sell higher than that amount. No one can predict BTC prices correctly.

What you said is quite simple and easy to understand because you stated that price prediction is something that is very different from trading. I really agree with this because as we know that trading is only part of the way to make a profit through the market, while predicting prices is everyone's way of seeing the potential profits they can get when the price is at a certain level. And this is of course very different from trading in a matter of days because price predictions are usually aimed at several months, not just one day. So it's quite clear what you are saying.

The goal is not be correct in the market place, The goal is to make money. Remember that. Specualating price prediction is very far different from trading. As you know basic trading, there most of the time quarterly shifts, but it doesn't mean it will go to that direction. Not because price is going higher, it will go higher directly! so that oether than price prediction also predict the WHEN it will be trading.

You already know the truth about market movement so why worry yourself about it when it doesn't go your way. However prediction is not a guarantee so you have to trade with what you see and don't run into the opposite direction of the market and expecting price to meet you there, that is why you will always be disappointed.


Hope you don't force your friends to follow your prediction. You should know that this time around close to halving, the price usually don't go up.


Why? Did you take a bet on that or did you take a vow that you will be called a bastard if the prediction didn't happen. Volatility doesn't know what you have predicted on it .


No type of prediction is perfect. Do what is right, follow what the market is doing.


It is handled by licking your wound. Try again next time and don't worry too much.

We all go through this embarrassment especially when we suggest our peer or family & friends to invest in a certain coin and predict market and it miserably fails. I have learnt it hard way that we should keep our predictions and recommendations to ourselves because market is going through a tough phase wherein when we think anything is going in the right direction but all of a sudden it will change it's course. I personally feel that if we predict something and a person is losing his investment though it's his/her responsibility to do due diligence still we should be blamed for recommending something which is not accurate, I would suggest you to stop predicting long terms and rather predict as per market sentiment.  

That's the reason I avoid predictions; if I mess up, I'd rather do it myself than listen to a self-proclaimed analyst, experienced or not. Signal groups have been popping up quite a lot in the past few years, and it's frustrating that they're quite popular. Has anyone had any positive experience with them? I'm quite suspicious of them. Certainly, you can come up with some kind of prediction through their charts and statistical data, but I personally wouldn't take their word for it. Generally, I find trading stressful, and no kind of prediction can make it easier. Personally, I believe that you need to find the correct balance between risk and reward without taking into account what others claim.

Look its difficult to trade and be profitable in the long run. Generally the way the market works is that whatever the general consensus is you should do the complete opposite.

Remember after FTX how bitcoin bottomed at $15K and had a relief bounce and everybody was calling it a dead cat and to get out at $15K because its going to $10K. And guess what happened, it had a double bottom and it rallied after that.

I was around during that week and even the seasoned traders out there were calling bitcoin weak and to get out, and they were all incorrect. Its difficult to predict the market.

Just simply move on and just deal up on what are the current prices because if you do keep yourself that pushing over on what the price should be then you would really be definitely be finding yourself that getting

disappointed knowing that this market is really that something that cant be predicted then even if you do have those kind of insights or views about potential price movement or level on that particular date or year or month then it wont really be an assured thing. Tons of speculation could really be ended up on being wrong and this is where adjustments will be made. If you do find yourself that being that too impulsive
about price approach then this market isnt for you or something that you would be needing to reassess and make yourself that realize on what you are dealing with.

It do takes some more experience and time engagement with this market so that you do able to at least handle out yourself in times of volatility. There's no one on this world or in this market
will really be able to handle volatility specially if its movement is really that totally random and cant be predicted.

Well probably everyone already knows about this and even those who are new to the market must also know that no one can predict the market accurately, if anyone says they can then obviously it's just nonsense. I admit that predicting is very difficult, but if you have very high flying hours or you are a professional then maybe you will be superior to other traders in terms of predicting because you already understand almost all the habits of the market every time and that knowledge will be very helpful in finding real profits. But still in my opinion and maybe some others a professional trader also never forget their trading plan especially the limits of self-control that they have made from the beginning, you can make big profits there, but you also have to know that big risks will always follow you.

So there is the importance of self-control with a very good plan such as applying firmness in take profit and also stop los and also your mental and psychological calmness so that you stay awake or avoid the name of excessive emotion, and also with it will make it easier for you to make the right decisions. In my opinion, that's the only thing that can help us from a lot of losses or even avoid MC.

I have repeatedly had inaccurate predictions, but it doesn't cause me much stress. Reading your next reasons, I know what makes you so...
Let me guess, are your friends teasing you about your predictions? An important rule when discussing speculation with anyone is to always include some sort of disclaimer of accuracy instead of convincing them more strongly.

This is indeed a very common thing, no one can predict market prices accurately, but handling emotions when they happen is very important and we also have to learn several things in protecting assets or minimizing the risk when the direction or price prediction set is wrong.
In my opinion, patience is needed here and to put aside negative thoughts so that we can calculate more precisely or closer to future prices so that we can take the right steps.