Topic: How do you suggest I handle incorrect price predictions? - page 4. (Read 697 times)

You're not a fortune teller, you couldn't have known any better and the majority of us aren't experienced in such analysis. Predictions are hardly accurate and even if there was a way to achieve a higher accuracy, the market is extremely unpredictable and a crash or a pump may occur at any moment for a variety of reasons. It's not worth getting frustrated over a wrong expectation, some so-called analysts were even claiming that Bitcoin would have already surpassed $100,000 but it didn't and we're still discussing when and if that will ultimately happen.

Approximately a week ago I sold some Cyber that I had farmed, right at its current ATH. Did I know that it'd crash right after? No, I just felt like it was a good time sell and went with my gut instinct after observing the market for a while.

I mean for sure it is impossible to predict the market accurately because there are just too many factors that are affecting the market price that we might know, For sure it is really frustrating seeing the market drop and your predictions are not correct, but I mean its kinda normal since you can't really predict the market at all, but it just feels great if your predictions are right then you nailed it making some small profit.

For sure that is the way but you if cant bear the wrong prediction, I mean just dont make a prediction at all, I mean expectation is really the thing that is going to destroy your investment in the end if you not going to expect anything on the market then you dont have to worry about anything, Also just dont make cryptocurrency your main source of income or just dont expect anything as a return of your investment on Bitcoin, if your going to do that you could probably HODL your cryptocurrency for years, Personally in my experience its kinda work, unlike my past investment where I actually looking forward for that profit that I'm gonna make and think of the things that I can buy already expecting to earn a good profit. But in the end, you're just gonna end up selling your investment at the wrong timing if you're always expecting something.

If your ego requires the nice feels when you get it right, then ya got to put your big boy pants on when you get it wrong

You don't have to feel bad or frustrated, it is called prediction and not accurate data. Predictions fail and sometimes it is correct. Even as for me I have not predicted any bitcoin market price correctly. Op you did a mistake by telling your friends about the next move of bitcoin. Your friends will put their hope on that price and when the price you told them did not appear on the particular day which you have told them they would feel disappointed.

Anything bitcoin, deal with sensitive and not over exaggerating because it might land you for problem. Lolz. Bitcoin will not even reach $40k before this year will end but it might climbed up to 30k and even at that it is just a prediction. Don't put bitcoin price in your mind.

In early January everyone seemed very optimistic that bitcoin could easily reach $40k in the first 6 months of 2023 - but the fact is that bitcoin is still struggling today. Your prediction failed - and so did everyone else, but should you be held responsible for those wrong predictions?

I don't know what you're held accountable for that prediction - unless you actually bail someone out and get a return for it. So far I wouldn't dare make a prediction that would allow someone to incur a loss - that is intended because the price of bitcoin is difficult to predict and the market can basically move in any direction.

There's no special way to handle this kind of act of giving a wrong prediction of bitcoin price to your friends, other than making less prediction of bitcoin price to anyone, Keep an eye on the bitcoin price by not placing too much hope in it, don't get overly excited when the price rises because this will cause you to assume unwarranted profits for yourself, talk less about bitcoin with your friends, and focus on the bull run as well as how to amass more bitcoin for yourself when the price is down. 

If you keep doing this, as I have stated above. You will eventually learn how to avoid making inaccurate predictions because it is impossible for someone to correctly speculate the price of bitcoin on a monthly or quarterly basis. 

Nobody's perfect and this is what you should really be having in mind or would really be telling into yourself so that you will at least be easing the pain and frustration that you are feeling inside. Once you do have that kind of acceptance when it comes to errors and mistakes then you wont really be that be ending up to be impulsive on the time that you would be experience this. Come into your mind that the market is volatile. No one could
be able to hit up the right prediction when it comes to prices and this is why its called prediction in the first place on which this pertains about guess about on prices which it would potentially hit.
It could be ending up to be right or not which it does only really have that two possible paths to take on which it would really be just that normal that price could hit neither up or down based up on those numbers
that you had been predicting. The key on here on which you should really be able to control your emotion on the time that it would be coming because not all predictions do end up right and there are really moments
which it would really be making you sad and a little bit mix of enrage on why the price didnt move that way.

It is true that sometimes you could be incorrect and you shouldn't really worry about that, because nobody is 100% correct at all times, there will eventually be an incorrect prediction one way or another, it happens all the time.

I believe that if you could explain how common incorrect predictions are, then you could make it work and I believe that people will be fine about it if they understand it. I get that it is not going to be that easy to handle it because it is tough to do it, but it can be done one way or another. I believe that one of the hardest things is the fact that we are talking about a situation that is a lot worse and shouldn't really be seen as unlikely, it is very common and normal thing to happen.

Just accept it and analyze again, maybe you just use the wrong indicator and also better to have your predictions more realistic.
There's no perfect analysis especially on a very volatile market so better to always have your back-up plan so if the market didn't turn the way you wanted it, you still have other option to choose from. There are times that I predicted the price incorrectly, and my trade turns into a loss, I think this is normal already and trading can also be consider as gambling, there's no guaranteed profit here.

We are dealing on a speculative market on which it would really be just that normal that you would;

1. Made a wrong prediction
2. Optimistic approach
3. Pessimistic approach
4. Getting in line with other prices prediction and sentiments

Dont feel or make yourself that having that kind of disappointments because it is really just that normal that mistakes on price predictions and speculations is really that common. No man on this world would really be able to know on whats the price that we do have in future days or months or years ahead on which it would really be just not totally that devastating if you do have made out some optimistic approach.
This is why it would really be that important that emotion handling is really that relevant when it comes to this market. Everything is unsure and cant be known.

One of the main risks that you should really be preparing is on how you would really be able to adapt and go with the flow accordingly basing up on what are the movements this market could give.
Adapt and trying to get in when you do see the opportunity and sell out if you do hit up the target you are aiming for. Rinse and repeat.

One can speculate about the price of Bitcoin, but while predicting the price of Bitcoin, even if you are talking to someone about it, you should not just predict the price with all assurance that the price will definitely spike to what you have predicted. It can be very shameful when you specifically tell someone that Bitcoin will be $40k in one week's time but it fails to attain such a price or even get close. But if you say it in a way that shows that you are not sure of the price but are only being speculative, then you would not have to be shy when the price did not hit your predicted price. When talking to people about Bitcoin, I don't tell them to invest at that moment because the price will skyrocket in the next few months. I usually tell them that the price only spikes during bull runs, and no one can tell how far the price can go. I know that even experienced Bitcoiners cannot decide or be very accurate in their predictions, and it doesn't give me concern if my predictions are wrong too.

There will not to have to handle if you stop making predictions in the first place especially to your friends. The more you make predictions that turn out incorrect to your friends, they will start to trust you less, and have more reasons not to take your words seriously especially when they do not know that nobody is actually able to give correct predictions about price movement of bitcoins because of how unforeseen events can affect it.

If you cannot stop doing it, always add a disclaimer at the end of your predictions. A simple statement like, "it is not a financial advice" can go a long way.

Price predictions are never accurate and just because your predictions don't work out doesn't make you a failure. Therefore, you should not blame yourself. Crypto markets are complex and price prediction requires technical and fundamental analysis, as well as close news monitoring. Even if you do all this without interruption, the market is likely to move differently than predicted. News affects the market a lot and can invalidate predictions. For this reason, when making a price forecast, you should always consider the positive and negative situations and make your forecast accordingly. You should not be angry with yourself for your predictions.

If your friend believes that your predictions are accurate or correct in a large percentage, then he probably does not know trading and it is better for him to learn more. No one says that his trading is accurate or closer to the truth, but based on the available data, the possibility that the price will rise is high, but everything remains subject to the science of probabilities Not facts. Always learn to say that it is not investment advice and that it may cause you to lose your money.

Anyone can make predictions, but they themselves can never be 100% sure whether the predictions are correct. It is difficult to make predictions correctly because the price of bitcoin is always fluctuating, even if they are experts. There are a number of factors that make one's prediction worth considering, but that is only if there is good support in bitcoin fundamentals.

For example: If a bitcoin spot ETF is approved, then bitcoin will rise high possibly breaking $40k in 1 to 2 months or maybe less. But if they make predictions randomly without being supported by strong fundamentals, then it is difficult to consider.

Wrong in terms of price predictions for Bitcoin is actually a very common thing because it is also concerned with the future which is difficult for everyone to know. Especially when it comes to the price of Bitcoin, which basically fluctuates every year and every month, so you don't need to hide your head from your friends at this point just because you are wrong in predicting the price of Bitcoin on the market.

For me, this is a very common thing that happens to everyone and so far I think not only you are wrong in predicting the price of Bitcoin, but perhaps there are many experts who are also wrong in predicting the price of Bitcoin in the market at the moment. So there's no need to feel frustrated like that just because of the usual mistakes you make, but try to give them a better understanding of the conditions that can influence the market so that they can understand that price predictions are not always as accurate as we say.

It’s called predictions as its not always correct. It’s okay to predict wrong sometimes. As you will learn from your mistakes only. I am sure all of us when we were newbie, used to make wrong decisions or predictions. But we learnt gradually with trading and with experience. There is no fixed way to make good predictions. All you can do is just analyse the market and with time your predictions will improve. There is no alternative to this.

Because you predict what the price will do in the future doesn't mean it will go in your direction, The market generally is reactive and not predictive, meaning you take decission based on current market conditions. The market is full of uncertainty and constantly changing base on various events, like the economic factors, politics, wars and great swan like that of the coronavirus pandemic, thereby putting pressure on investors and traders to make a sudden change in decision with their portfolios and positions in the market.

Do not try to predict the price within a narrow range, but rather a broader one. Sayif such happens, the price will be about 22,000 . else, we may be between 32,000 and 41,000. Bitcoin can break a support level or two, but it is difficult to break several levels. that is the reason why price will be below a certain level for some time and therefore it will take some time and attempts to break that level, just as is happening now with the $30,000 level, which is more likely to be broken than in the past and easier in Q4 of this year.

we can say that in Q4 we will be below 40,000 and in Q1 we will be between 40,000 and 50,000.

First, you will understand that there are no right predictions that are ever made. In fact, you've found it by yourself now but don't become frustrated because that was the reality. As I made my predictions, I simply didn't think I was right as well but I have faith in crypto which makes me think that even if I was wrong, it doesn't mean that I fail. It is just to know that the market is so volatile, any time of the day or an hour it will change its course which makes us not see it. As we are here in the crypto space, better embrace the way it works rather that thinking about putting everything in our hands.