How far is bitcoin from full adoption (100% mass adoption)?

qwertyup23

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Quote from: palle11 on December 18, 2021, 12:11:06 PM

I think I can pick 10% rate of adoption so far. For now just few countries have made full move to adoption and also few institutions have allowed for bitcoin in their platform. Until a reasonable amount of countries starts proper adoption, hopefully from next halving.

I think 10% is the right answer in terms of mass adoption.

Remember that in order for something to be recognized, it must be categorized as legitimate in a country. If you want to see BTC being mass adopted worldwide, then it has to survive the issue of acceptability and absorption in a country. Though this may seem possible, I highly doubt that 100% mass adoption would happen even in the far future given the nature of BTC providing anonymity and freedom in transactions.

Remember that the government wants and needs control over its finances. They see cryptocurrencies as a threat to their absolute control which would hamper and reduce their effectivity.

laredo7mm

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If you mean 100% mass adoption by referring to that scenario where everyone would have a percent of BTC then it is not even near 10%. Do you know how many people in the world don't use the internet ever? According to the world Nations its 37% of the total world population. Over 86% of Americans haven't heard about cryptocurrencies at all according to a survey. More than 1 out of 3 crypto investors don't know enough about bitcoin. This data shows cryptocurrencies are still a baby in the present world. So first let us get awareness and education about crypto then we can think about crypto adoption.

Rufsilf

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What do you mean by 100% mass adoption? You need to be more specific OP on what you're trying to ask us. It could be mass adoption of storing it? Investing it? Making it as a use of payment? But if you mean is mass adoption of using/purchasing it as investing to make profits and knows how the system works as an individual. Well, my answer is not more than 5% of the total population across the globe and even in the USA they're not more than 10% who uses it.

avikz

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Quote from: JaanusRaim on December 18, 2021, 11:20:27 AM

Please answer, how do you feel about it...

Adoption! What do you mean by it? Do we consider investing as an adoption without knowing the technical things behind it? If yes, the possibly 10% - 15% of the population adopted it.

But if you consider the knowledge adoption, I don't see more than 3% - 4% of the population. Actual numbers can be much lesser than what I mentioned here because it is very difficult to measure it.

Also if you want to see full 100% adoption, that day will never come in reality.

awik p

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looks like we will have to wait a long time to be able to see bitcoin adopted 100%, maybe it can happen in the generation after us. we see that until now there are still many conflicts from various countries, most of the countries I don't think are ready to use bitcoin with various considerations. Moreover, they have their own fiat currency which is still considered relevant for now

JaanusRaim

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on December 19, 2021, 01:39:54 PM

Quote from: The Sceptical Chymist on December 18, 2021, 12:51:48 PM

Quote from: hatshepsut93 on December 18, 2021, 12:12:46 PM

What do you mean by "100% mass adoption"?

I'm not even sure what the term adoption means, much less 100%. Does adoption mean someone is using bitcoin as a substitute for fiat? Does it mean they're using it as an investment? Is it that they just own some for whatever reason?

That's why sometimes it's important to use concrete metrics instead of broad terms like "adoption". For example, we can look at Bitcoin's usage for consumer transactions and compare it to use of Visa, or compare how much people hold Bitcoin and how much people hold gold or other assets that are traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation. Also the volumes are also important - so here we can look at Bitcoin's share in investment portfolios, volume of consumer payments, etc.

The idea behind the question was to compare Bitcoin and usd. The usd adoption is around 50% in the World.

JaanusRaim

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Quote from: nullama on December 19, 2021, 11:05:39 PM

First, Bitcoin will never get to 100% adoption, of course. Similar to cash vs cards, not everyone is living in a cashless society, and it will never happen. People will always use cash for different reasons.

Let's try to estimate where it is today.

Current population is about 8 million

There are about 800 thousand active Bitcoin addresses. Of course there are users that are not moving their coins which are not counted here, but also there are probably more than one active address per user, so those might even out.

That's about 0.001%

I reckon the real number is around that level, considering the whole world.

I agree, this is a strong argument for very small rate (0.01%).

But there are other important indicators as well. For example: the ownership of Bitcoins. More than 100 million people have Bitcoins now - it makes about 1% of the World population. Of cause, owning does not equal full adoption.

nullama

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First, Bitcoin will never get to 100% adoption, of course. Similar to cash vs cards, not everyone is living in a cashless society, and it will never happen. People will always use cash for different reasons.

Let's try to estimate where it is today.

Current population is about 8 million

There are about 800 thousand active Bitcoin addresses. Of course there are users that are not moving their coins which are not counted here, but also there are probably more than one active address per user, so those might even out.

That's about 0.001%

I reckon the real number is around that level, considering the whole world.

Yamifoud

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Quote from: JaanusRaim on December 18, 2021, 11:20:27 AM

Please answer, how do you feel about it...

100% adoption? that it looks like it needs 100 years to wait...we don't know.

As for now, there is no timetable for that. Adoption will take longer far different from what we think before. We even think it was too fast and easy but seeing the situation, it moves slowly, at least there is a continuous improvement since some big establishments are into adoption and accepting crypto as a mode of payment. In this way, it helps to encourage others to make adoption as well.

Vaskiy

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We're at the very beginning days of cryptocurrency adoption. I've voted for 5% based on the calculation that were made few years back. By the time it was mentioned that around 20% of the population is aware of the technology and it's associated product bitcoin. I don't know how far this is true. Compared to those days, now we've got a massive change in the userbase and support from the global market. Based on the factor I believe the adoption will be between 3-5%

timerland

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Quite far, honestly.

And I don't even think that full adoption is a reasonable goal. Even the internet doesn't have full adoption at this point given that a lot of countries don't even have stable access to electricity yet.

I'd say realistically, maybe 0.5% of the world is on the bitcoin network actively transacting, AT MOST. There is so much room for exponential growth still.

sana54210

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Quote from: JoyMarsha on December 19, 2021, 04:10:51 AM

Bitcoin is far from adoption. If that the whole world has adopted bitcoin, one bitcoin price would have been running in millions by now. Rather its price is still running in a tenth of thousands. The adoption will happen but it won't be 100% mass adoption rather it will only be a 25% adoption rate if only the whole world seems to adopt bitcoin globally. It will take years for it to get to such an adoption globally. Am less to expect such an adoption rate to happen

I am not really inclined to say "far from" right now. I agree with you that when we are done we are going to be in millions of dollars range but right now we are already at around 50k and isn't that proof that we are getting closer? I mean we were at few thousand dollars just a year or two ago, now our ATH is nearly 70k, so we could say that things are looking alright if you ask me.

I understand that it is not doing amazing and perfect and there are some stuff that we need to fix before we could be 100% mass adoption, but that doesn't mean that we are at 10% or lower right now, it just means that we are not at 100% yet and that's it. I am hoping to see a lot better results hopefully, it should be around 100k+ in 2022 and I would say we are clearly above 10%+ adoption rate in that case. So yes it is not there yet, but it is also not far from full adoption neither.

vv181

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Does the 100% adoption is including people in China? Cheesy

I believe it won't happen anytime soon, and I wonder why must and in what terms that Bitcoin must reach 100% adoption, the term you used is a little bit vague as others suggest. Even Bitcoin has been stand along after all this time, it is still early if looking at the broader perspective of the world. If I look a the bigger picture, there are still a lot of things that have a better urgency that needed to be considered rather than just simply maximizing the rate of adoption.

Ozero

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on December 18, 2021, 12:12:46 PM

What do you mean by "100% mass adoption"? When all people in the world switch to Bitcoin? Then it would just be "share of global population that uses Bitcoin". Or is it percentage of some theoretical maximum of Bitcoin adoption? And what do you mean by adoption? Does it mean owning any amount of Bitcoin? Or does it only count if you regularly use it as a currency?

After reading this thread, I got about the same questions. The question posed is very streamlined and it is impossible to give even a conjectural answer to it. We do not know how the cryptocurrency will develop further and what kind of relationship it will have with the governments of states. Much is still possible now.
Bitcoin is still very poorly used as a means of payment, and there is practically no infrastructure for this at all.

mindrust

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Depends on what you really mean by "adoption".

Do you mean everybody "owning" some bitcoin/satoshi? Or do you mean bitcoin becoming the main currency of the world? Either way it is not happening any time soon. The second option can't even happen because of the limits of the blockchain. Had you said "crypto" instead of bitcoin, I would have said "maybe". But being used as a currency by everybody in the world is pretty much impossible for bitcoin at its current state.

akaki

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Are you talking world wide ?

Well, to give an idea, the bank access rate in middle to low income countries is less than 50%. We are talking about a population where 1 person out of 2 is not having a payement card and using only cash.
So, for now a full adoption of bitcoin is just utopic.

teosanru

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Quote from: JaanusRaim on December 18, 2021, 11:20:27 AM

Please answer, how do you feel about it...

By 100% adoption, I think you mean everyone is just transacting in bitcoin and no other currency is used in the world or even if it's used it's not at all mainstream, this sort of adoption is going to take decades if not years. Currently if I say it's 2% that too would be too much because most of the people haven't actually adopted it as a currency but mostly as an asset. So a 100% adoption is really not going to happen in many many years.

Leviathan.007

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I cannot vote and choose a number between all these options because I don't know what do you exactly mean by saying 100 percent adoption. But if you compare these years to 10 years ago when none could trust bitcoin as they trust it these years you can understand we had a long road ahead but bitcoin passed many steps during all this time but having full and 100 percent adoption is kinda too much for now because in my own idea when many people people who are still using the credit cards and prefer fiat money for their transaction it's still not fully adopted. Maybe will not see that time like ever.

hatshepsut93

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Quote from: The Sceptical Chymist on December 18, 2021, 12:51:48 PM

Quote from: hatshepsut93 on December 18, 2021, 12:12:46 PM

What do you mean by "100% mass adoption"?

I'm not even sure what the term adoption means, much less 100%. Does adoption mean someone is using bitcoin as a substitute for fiat? Does it mean they're using it as an investment? Is it that they just own some for whatever reason?

That's why sometimes it's important to use concrete metrics instead of broad terms like "adoption". For example, we can look at Bitcoin's usage for consumer transactions and compare it to use of Visa, or compare how much people hold Bitcoin and how much people hold gold or other assets that are traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation. Also the volumes are also important - so here we can look at Bitcoin's share in investment portfolios, volume of consumer payments, etc.

kryptqnick

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I wonder why this question requires a vote. It's around 1-2% if you look at estimates of the numbers of crypto users worldwide and compare it with the total population. But, of course, there are other points to consider, such as whether we take the whole population as a reference point or perhaps only adults. We could also set a different number as 100%, assuming that smartphone adoption or Internet adoption count as 100%. Another interesting point that was mentioned in the thread is if merely owning cryptos should count, or people have to actually use them regularly. If it's about the usage, the percentage is likely to be way less than 2%. So while we live here in a crypto adoption bubble, it's important to realize that the vast majority of people don't own any cryptos.

Topic: How far is bitcoin from full adoption (100% mass adoption)? (Read 281 times)