How high will the difficulty be in 60 days?

rampalija

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Quote from: Vlad2Vlad on November 01, 2013, 03:06:16 PM

Quote from: rampalija on November 01, 2013, 03:03:56 PM

Quote from: Vlad2Vlad on November 01, 2013, 03:00:59 PM

Next difficulty will surpass 500 million and by Christmas we'll be over 1.2 billion.

In other words, every unit being shipped [late] by butterfly labs right now will never see a profit.

Paper weights!

The reason most people are on the low side is that they're not taking into account the massive recent spike in Bitcoin Price [which will keep surging into Christmas and New Year] and also the global attention [and legitimacy] brought to Bitcoin due to the closure of Silk Road.

We probably now have a few million new entrants which nobody is aware of, and that number will sky rocket next year with the Bitcoin ETF.

So both of these factors [and soon the Bitcoin ETF] will greatly accelerate the difficulty rate as millions more people buy ASICS, which will consistently put a massive downward pressure on Scrypt coins which means Litecoin et al are doomed.

But I digress...

can difficulty of BTC decrease

Of course. If people choose to mine something else or just turn off their ASICS then the difficulty will go down.

maybe that will happen sometime in near future, when ppl stop buying their miners and quit mining cuz of ROI

Vlad2Vlad

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www.ixcoin.net

Quote from: rampalija on November 01, 2013, 03:03:56 PM

Quote from: Vlad2Vlad on November 01, 2013, 03:00:59 PM

Next difficulty will surpass 500 million and by Christmas we'll be over 1.2 billion.

In other words, every unit being shipped [late] by butterfly labs right now will never see a profit.

Paper weights!

The reason most people are on the low side is that they're not taking into account the massive recent spike in Bitcoin Price [which will keep surging into Christmas and New Year] and also the global attention [and legitimacy] brought to Bitcoin due to the closure of Silk Road.

We probably now have a few million new entrants which nobody is aware of, and that number will sky rocket next year with the Bitcoin ETF.

So both of these factors [and soon the Bitcoin ETF] will greatly accelerate the difficulty rate as millions more people buy ASICS, which will consistently put a massive downward pressure on Scrypt coins which means Litecoin et al are doomed.

But I digress...

can difficulty of BTC decrease

Of course. If people choose to mine something else or just turn off their ASICS then the difficulty will go down.

rampalija

full member

Activity: 154

Merit: 100

Quote from: Vlad2Vlad on November 01, 2013, 03:00:59 PM

Next difficulty will surpass 500 million and by Christmas we'll be over 1.2 billion.

In other words, every unit being shipped [late] by butterfly labs right now will never see a profit.

Paper weights!

The reason most people are on the low side is that they're not taking into account the massive recent spike in Bitcoin Price [which will keep surging into Christmas and New Year] and also the global attention [and legitimacy] brought to Bitcoin due to the closure of Silk Road.

We probably now have a few million new entrants which nobody is aware of, and that number will sky rocket next year with the Bitcoin ETF.

So both of these factors [and soon the Bitcoin ETF] will greatly accelerate the difficulty rate as millions more people buy ASICS, which will consistently put a massive downward pressure on Scrypt coins which means Litecoin et al are doomed.

But I digress...

can difficulty of BTC decrease

Vlad2Vlad

legendary

Activity: 3052

Merit: 1534

www.ixcoin.net

Next difficulty will surpass 500 million and by Christmas we'll be over 1.2 billion.

In other words, every unit being shipped [late] by butterfly labs right now will never see a profit.

Paper weights!

The reason most people are on the low side is that they're not taking into account the massive recent spike in Bitcoin Price [which will keep surging into Christmas and New Year] and also the global attention [and legitimacy] brought to Bitcoin due to the closure of Silk Road.

We probably now have a few million new entrants which nobody is aware of, and that number will sky rocket next year with the Bitcoin ETF.

So both of these factors [and soon the Bitcoin ETF] will greatly accelerate the difficulty rate as millions more people buy ASICS, which will consistently put a massive downward pressure on Scrypt coins which means Litecoin et al are doomed.

But I digress...

rampalija

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Activity: 154

Merit: 100

around 500 000 000

vesperwillow

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Quote from: zvs on October 30, 2013, 09:48:30 AM

I predict it'll be so high that you won't even be able to shake a stick at it

Of this, I have no doubt. I also believe it still has a ways to go beyond that.

:/

zvs

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https://web.archive.org/web/*/nogleg.com

I predict it'll be so high that you won't even be able to shake a stick at it

vesperwillow

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Quote from: TheDragonSlayer on October 30, 2013, 04:51:09 AM

Quote from: GodfatherBond on October 26, 2013, 12:03:25 PM

Quote from: petersiddle98 on October 25, 2013, 09:09:45 AM

1,200,000,000. 5 times of what it is now

About there, maybe a bit more (1500 MM) by end of this year.

2 Billion, do I get something If I guess it right?

Bragging rights I suppose.

This next one is going to have even more variaiton within the unknowns than the last, I'm finding it hard to estimate with certainty. My math comes up with:

Worse case scenario: 2,235,934,660

Likely scenario: 1,915,001,512

My gut says 1.7b, but I'm going to stick with my 2 above. Just wanted to note my gut's feeling in case I need to take that more into consideration for the next go-round lol.

TheDragonSlayer

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Quote from: GodfatherBond on October 26, 2013, 12:03:25 PM

Quote from: petersiddle98 on October 25, 2013, 09:09:45 AM

1,200,000,000. 5 times of what it is now

About there, maybe a bit more (1500 MM) by end of this year.

2 Billion, do I get something If I guess it right?

GodfatherBond

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Quote from: petersiddle98 on October 25, 2013, 09:09:45 AM

1,200,000,000. 5 times of what it is now

About there, maybe a bit more (1500 MM) by end of this year.

waltermot321

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Merit: 250

Quote from: vesperwillow on October 25, 2013, 09:18:22 AM

Quote from: petersiddle98 on October 25, 2013, 09:09:45 AM

1,200,000,000. 5 times of what it is now

And we have started a new round! =D

Oh no, the difficulty jump again!!

vesperwillow

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Activity: 616

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Quote from: petersiddle98 on October 25, 2013, 09:09:45 AM

1,200,000,000. 5 times of what it is now

And we have started a new round! =D

petersiddle98

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1,200,000,000. 5 times of what it is now

vesperwillow

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I figured it's time to review how we all did lol

Quote from: silvergoldandbitcoin on August 13, 2013, 03:44:42 AM

Estimates anyone?

60 days would've been 12-Oct. The last jump put us at 267,731,249 on 16-Oct, previous to that 189,281,249 on 6-Oct, a difference of 78,450,000 (source: http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty). For simplicity's sake the linear daily difference is 7,845,000.

6 days @ 7,845,000 = 47,070,000. Add that to 6-Oct difficulty and we arrive at the 60 day rough difficulty projection of....

236,351,249

With that, here's the top 3 predictions:

vesperwillow - 241M (98% accuracey)
rolling - 222,716,830 (96.2% accuracy)
goxed - 200M. (84% accuracey)

I think these 3 did really well.

It's almost as if I knew something lol.

Sources:

Quote from: vesperwillow on August 14, 2013, 08:13:02 AM

If some of the bigger rigs come online as projected, I believe it's likely you'll see number similar to this for a worse case scenario:

78 End of August
212 End of September
613 Last week of October

Less than worse case scenario:

78 End of August
162 End of September
241 Last week of October

Network speed has risen dramatically over the past few months, but we're just beginning to enter the "actual" rise. Growth will be exponential for a short time period, I'd wager you'll see the Network speed line shooting "almost straight up" for a short while sometime in the near future.

Some math whizz's have said they expect network speed to double or quadruple in the next 120 days. Not sure if I can bite into that, but it's certainly plausible.

Quote from: goxed on August 15, 2013, 03:21:58 AM

My estimate is somewhere around 200M. My observation is around ~2% daily growth.

Quote from: rolling on August 18, 2013, 09:49:40 PM

222,716,830 on October 13th.

thy

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4-5 PH/s at least i guess so it should mean 550-660 million or so.

vesperwillow

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My less-than-worst case scenario looks like it's close as of today.

smoothie

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LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

Quote from: silvergoldandbitcoin on August 13, 2013, 03:44:42 AM

Estimates anyone?

110,000,000

rolling

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222,716,830 on October 13th.

Takeshi_Kovacs

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Quote from: ridnovir on August 13, 2013, 01:13:23 PM

Quote from: ridnovir on August 13, 2013, 12:19:27 PM

currently difficulty is at 37. and is estimated to jump to 50. which is %40 increase so, if this trend continues, we are talking %120 increase per month or %240 per 2 month

that is why I decided not to buy knc Jupiter at the moment, even if it is delivered in October as promised I still would not make ROI.

here is a better calculator http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/
even if you assume difficulty will increase %35 per 10 days and round it off to %100 per month the outlook is bleak

Why would you round that off to 100%? A rate increase of 35% every 10 days is a rate increase of 146% over a 30 day period. That would take a 50M difficulty up to 123M in one month and then on to over 300M in 60 days. (You need to multiply percentage increases not add them.)

If the network hash rate increases at the same rate as in the last cycle, that is where we will be in 60 days - a difficulty of 300M.

That begs an important question. Will hash rates keep rising at 35% per cycle? What can we see from the network today? We are currently one third of the way through the current cycle and allchains.info estimates a 17.7% increase for the next cycle. Of course, that is not a real estimate. It really means that, over the last 3 days, the net has added enough hashing power to require a 17.7% increase in difficulty. The are seven more days to go before the next recalculation and there will surely be more hash power by then. If the trend over the last three days continues then the next difficulty jump would be greater than the last one. Of course random variance has a role to play in this and things may not be as bad as that - but equally, they may be worse.

goxed

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Bitcoin / Crypto mining Hardware.

My estimate is somewhere around 200M. My observation is around ~2% daily growth.

Topic: How high will the difficulty be in 60 days? (Read 3729 times)