Question: How long does it typically take for the USD exchange rate of bitcoin to double?
Answer:
Given this timetable, would anybody like to make a guess at a range of dates between which they believe the exchange rate will reach $400?
Answer:
| Start_rate | End_rate | #_of_days | Dates |
| $3.125 | $6.25 | 194 | 2011-12-01 to 2012-06-15 |
| $6.25 | $12.5 | 163 | 2012-06-15 to 2012-11-25 |
| $12.5 | $25 | 79 | 2012-11-25 to 2013-02-12 |
| $25 | $50 | 30 | 2013-02-12 to 2013-03-18 |
| $50 | $100 | 14 | 2013-03-18 to 2013-04-01 |
| $100 | $200 | 8 | 2013-04-01 to 2013-04-09 |
Given this timetable, would anybody like to make a guess at a range of dates between which they believe the exchange rate will reach $400?
Are there some easy-to-use historical time-series data-sets available for mucking around with? Interested, has anyone tried to apply stochastic volatility estimators (i.e: GARCH) and compared to, i.e., outlier penny stocks with ultra-high volatility? I'd imagine BTCUSD blows doors off most all of them, especially if we start looking at sums of moving averages to try to capture sustained instantaneous volatility...
Then again... just thinking out loud... perhaps working with, i.e., de-trended logarithmic data might surprise us? Conceivably, BTCUSD (or, I dunno, BTCinsert-your-favorite-real-value-estimator here...) is not so horribly volatile as it's perceived to be, once we give it credit for an innate tendency to exhibit unusually high exponential growth?
