Topic: How long does it take for bitcoin value to double?? - page 3. (Read 7701 times)
Stability is the last thing I would forecast.
Obviously we'll reach complete mainstream adoption by next week 
No, it has to slow down - that is an absolute fact. It simply isn't possible for all the people who have never heard of Bitcoin to be fully convinced and fully invested over the coming week. That would be insane. Why am I even having to say this?
I'm a hyperbull, expecting a decent chance that each bitcoin will be worth zillions. But this double exponential growth ends this by next week. We all agree on that.
So what this really means is all bets are off. We may be in a bubble, but even if we are it could still rise another tenfold. Maybe even in a single week. But after that it must cool its jets to some degree at least.
Luckily the learning curve and Gox verification cue smoothe things out a bit and we might not have a crazy selloff when things slow down as they mathematically must.
No, it has to slow down - that is an absolute fact. It simply isn't possible for all the people who have never heard of Bitcoin to be fully convinced and fully invested over the coming week. That would be insane. Why am I even having to say this?
I'm a hyperbull, expecting a decent chance that each bitcoin will be worth zillions. But this double exponential growth ends this by next week. We all agree on that.
So what this really means is all bets are off. We may be in a bubble, but even if we are it could still rise another tenfold. Maybe even in a single week. But after that it must cool its jets to some degree at least.
Luckily the learning curve and Gox verification cue smoothe things out a bit and we might not have a crazy selloff when things slow down as they mathematically must.
I think it clear this is unsustainable, I cant think of many run ups like this that ended in a stabilization though.
Obviously we'll reach complete mainstream adoption by next week
No, it has to slow down - that is an absolute fact. It simply isn't possible for all the people who have never heard of Bitcoin to be fully convinced and fully invested over the coming week. That would be insane. Why am I even having to say this?
I'm a hyperbull, expecting a decent chance that each bitcoin will be worth zillions. But this double exponential growth ends this by next week. We all agree on that.
So what this really means is all bets are off. We may be in a bubble, but even if we are it could still rise another tenfold. Maybe even in a single week. But after that it must cool its jets to some degree at least.
Luckily the learning curve and Gox verification cue smoothe things out a bit and we might not have a crazy selloff when things slow down as they mathematically must.
No, it has to slow down - that is an absolute fact. It simply isn't possible for all the people who have never heard of Bitcoin to be fully convinced and fully invested over the coming week. That would be insane. Why am I even having to say this?
I'm a hyperbull, expecting a decent chance that each bitcoin will be worth zillions. But this double exponential growth ends this by next week. We all agree on that.
So what this really means is all bets are off. We may be in a bubble, but even if we are it could still rise another tenfold. Maybe even in a single week. But after that it must cool its jets to some degree at least.
Luckily the learning curve and Gox verification cue smoothe things out a bit and we might not have a crazy selloff when things slow down as they mathematically must.
If all the mined coins are sold each day, current 2.8 billion new dollar per day will support a price of $77777. If less than 10% coins were sold, the limitation will be around 1 million. And this does not count all the existing dollar saving accounts
The next most interesting event is: FED changed their view of economy and start to tighten. At that stage, they will sell assets for USD, compete with bitcoin. But strange things might happen, people will sell assets for bitcoin, so what really happened is that bitcoin exchange price stay the same while assets price crash big. No, I guess they dare not to do that...
The next most interesting event is: FED changed their view of economy and start to tighten. At that stage, they will sell assets for USD, compete with bitcoin. But strange things might happen, people will sell assets for bitcoin, so what really happened is that bitcoin exchange price stay the same while assets price crash big. No, I guess they dare not to do that...
| Start_rate | End_rate | #_of_days | Dates |
| $3.125 | $6.25 | 194 | 2011-12-01 to 2012-06-15 |
| $6.25 | $12.5 | 163 | 2012-06-15 to 2012-11-25 |
| $12.5 | $25 | 79 | 2012-11-25 to 2013-02-12 |
| $25 | $50 | 30 | 2013-02-12 to 2013-03-18 |
| $50 | $100 | 14 | 2013-03-18 to 2013-04-01 |
| $100 | $200 | 8 | 2013-04-01 to 2013-04-09 |
So... we would have exponential (et) growth if the #_of_days was constant... but now it's halving every time the value doubles. I'm not going to figure out the formula for that, but it seems that if this development continues, we reach the singularity in 8 days. Ladies and gentlemen, I hereby forecast that by 17th of April, Bitcoin is infinitely valuable.
Of course, some other factors might come into play before that.
I like your thinking.
My wife (whose birthday that day shall be) will be expecting an exceptionally expensive gift.
How about North Korea, turned into an ornamental garden?
Daily growth for April is now 10%.
My charts (which the bears didn't like) extrapolating a few weeks of 5-6% daily growth now look obsolete.
The growth could slow down, it could speed up.
Who knows where we'll be at the end of the week.
I will add that I've been watching the markets since 2009, I've traded a BIG total since then.
I've never seen anything like this.
My charts (which the bears didn't like) extrapolating a few weeks of 5-6% daily growth now look obsolete.
The growth could slow down, it could speed up.
Who knows where we'll be at the end of the week.
I will add that I've been watching the markets since 2009, I've traded a BIG total since then.
I've never seen anything like this.
| Start_rate | End_rate | #_of_days | Dates |
| $3.125 | $6.25 | 194 | 2011-12-01 to 2012-06-15 |
| $6.25 | $12.5 | 163 | 2012-06-15 to 2012-11-25 |
| $12.5 | $25 | 79 | 2012-11-25 to 2013-02-12 |
| $25 | $50 | 30 | 2013-02-12 to 2013-03-18 |
| $50 | $100 | 14 | 2013-03-18 to 2013-04-01 |
| $100 | $200 | 8 | 2013-04-01 to 2013-04-09 |
So... we would have exponential (et) growth if the #_of_days was constant... but now it's halving every time the value doubles. I'm not going to figure out the formula for that, but it seems that if this development continues, we reach the singularity in 8 days. Ladies and gentlemen, I hereby forecast that by 17th of April, Bitcoin is infinitely valuable.
Of course, some other factors might come into play before that.
I think it's more simple: we are experiencing the effect of freely available fiat (banksters coming to play) being used to purchase a hard asset (btc). Due to stupid regulations, they can't just make up funny money and walk away home with it - they have to lend it / invest it, then take profits to walk away with. Bitcoin is a perfect vehicle.
you all can have my weak coins at $400 after the double
Well its already pushing $214, I think $250 is possible by the end of the day EST
Between here and $300 are only 13k BTC.
This is the same amount as was needed to get from 150 to 200 over the last 2 days...
So perhaps $400 by the weekend is indeed possible...
This is the same amount as was needed to get from 150 to 200 over the last 2 days...
So perhaps $400 by the weekend is indeed possible...
This Saturday? Not possible...
wow so 4 days to double hmmm
Another 3 days?
- snip -in 3 days, - snip -
So $1600 a week from now?
This is the economic singularity 
- snip - a $1 buy could send it to $1 000 000.
4 days to $400
There is no stop.
4.39 days, people.
So we have one week before the crash.
It's crazy, isn't it? Can this pattern really continue? It "feels like" it's going to have to slow down. I find it difficult to convince my self that it's possible for it to double in 3 to 4 days. Of course, 9 days ago I'd have found it difficult to believe that it's possible for it to double in 8 days.
4 days to $400
6 days to $800
7 days to $1600
7 days 12 hours to $3200
7 days 18 hours to $6400
7 days 21 hours days to $12800
XKCD time: http://xkcd.com/605/
6 days to $800
7 days to $1600
7 days 12 hours to $3200
7 days 18 hours to $6400
7 days 21 hours days to $12800
XKCD time: http://xkcd.com/605/
So we have one week before the crash.
Can it really be? That wuld be too sick. Most of us would be millionaires by the end of the month!
We are the new elite!
We are the new elite!
In the rise since january we have consistently waited for the 12 hour moving average to catch up each time before moving up further.
http://www.bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zig12-hourztgSza1gSMAzm1g10zm2g25zv
So, this implies some pausing or dipping in between the rises, as has happened so far.
I think your schedule must still allow for this. If it rises too steeply, the order book can't adjust quickly enough.
http://www.bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zig12-hourztgSza1gSMAzm1g10zm2g25zv
So, this implies some pausing or dipping in between the rises, as has happened so far.
I think your schedule must still allow for this. If it rises too steeply, the order book can't adjust quickly enough.
MAybe the growth would continue exponentially if everybody could invest their fiat immediately.
4 days to $400
6 days to $800
7 days to $1600
7 days 12 hours to $3200
7 days 18 hours to $6400
7 days 21 hours days to $12800
XKCD time: http://xkcd.com/605/
6 days to $800
7 days to $1600
7 days 12 hours to $3200
7 days 18 hours to $6400
7 days 21 hours days to $12800
XKCD time: http://xkcd.com/605/
So we have one week before the crash.
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