How low could the next bear market move bitcoin? - page 2.

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Quote from: Febo on April 11, 2021, 08:15:08 AM

It will be way easier to say when we see ATH of this cycle. Retraction will be for sure 70%. So if ATH will be $100k, then bottom will be $30k. If ATH will be $200k then bottom will be $60k. Also dont forget that bottom happens for short time. Price fast correct higher. Last cycle bottom was $3200, but you were able to buy Bitcoin at below $6000 for only less than half year time.

I am not expecting the price of bitcoin to reach $200k but reaching hundred thousand is not impossible either but i doubt we will easily cross those valuation and we might see a correction trying to breach the $100k valuation. I have no idea what the bottom would be we can just speculate what it might be considering the past performance and one thing is certain it wont stay at the bottom valuation for long after a major correction and my guess is that the old all time high valuation would be a good bottom Wink

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Quote from: philipma1957 on April 11, 2021, 08:48:40 AM

to check out a golden astroid in 2022. So gold could become as common as copper.

Means all the gold people have to consider leaving gold for a safer value item. BTC

This is the first time i am hearing about a golden asteroid and if that is true then the price of gold will go down considerably.

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well let’s do the following math experiment.

we mine 144 x 6.25 coins a day on average. or 900 coins a day.

How many coins can A guy like Jeff Bezos buy daily.

At 60k a coin. x 100 it is 6 million a day in coin.

So in 1 year he would need to spend 365 x 6 = 2.16 billion.

So for as long as Bezos wants to buy BTC he can do so. So he is clearing around 10 billion every year.

Btw many billionaires can do this.

Also gold = about 11 trillion
btc = about 1.1 trillion

One of the big time billionaires Musk is looking to partner with NASA

to check out a golden astroid in 2022. So gold could become as common as copper.

Means all the gold people have to consider leaving gold for a safer value item. BTC

Febo

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Quote from: yat97 on April 05, 2021, 06:05:52 PM

How low could the next bear market move bitcoin?

It will be way easier to say when we see ATH of this cycle. Retraction will be for sure 70%. So if ATH will be $100k, then bottom will be $30k. If ATH will be $200k then bottom will be $60k. Also dont forget that bottom happens for short time. Price fast correct higher. Last cycle bottom was $3200, but you were able to buy Bitcoin at below $6000 for only less than half year time.

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Quote from: arufox on April 08, 2021, 06:25:43 PM

Quote from: Wilhelm on April 06, 2021, 02:01:17 AM

Traditionally it will sink to 1/6th of the ATH.
Take 200k ATH and the bear will end just below 35k.

I also have a formula like this. Maybe 1/5 or 1/6th depend on ATH. So we must focus on ATH first, the peak price of Bitcoin after that we can use it as a reference, but I doubt it will be the same because today Crypto is stronger more than 4 years ago. So maybe 1/4th from ATH, I will start to buyback if reach this one

Always dependable from how you assess the market, if there's a trace of good bounce then buying

from that position is very likely good to go. It's tough though as there are no accuracy just pure

speculations and more on how the investors and traders reacts from each run and how your strong

will guides you up buying or selling your assets.

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No one will know how low the bitcoin price will go down in the next bearish trend but bitcoin can go low below $50k or even $40k.
That can go down for more because we already see what happen to bitcoin before in the last years.
The last drop of bitcoin price was at $3k, so maybe the lowest bitcoin price can be at $30k-$50k.
But bitcoin is not yet reaching the highest peak price and bitcoin price is still going up and maybe the price can reach $100k this year.
I think the bitcoin price can still increase in the next year, but we will see more bitcoin volatility that will happen many times, so you need to prepare your heartbeat.

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Quote from: adaseb on April 09, 2021, 11:22:24 PM

Back in 2017 there was institutional investors also. Especially with the launch of the BTC futures. People were thinking an BTC ETF was going to appear shortly after and look what happened.

I don't think we will see 4 digit BTC either, however anything can happen. Right now everybody is greedy. However imagine Tesla sells, Saylor sells and MtGox coins are unlocked and we can see panic very fast and who knows, maybe 4 digit BTC.

Just like what happened back in Nov 2018, everybody was assuming $6K was the bottom and look what happened.

I am not saying that price will not be this or will not be that, but I can tell you easily that in 2017 intuitional investors weren’t nowhere near this level. We are talking about one of the biggest companies in the world going in 1.5 billion dollars into crypto all at once, we had nothing like that at all, we were basically 10% of the current situation at the very best. They do have the capability of stopping a big fall right now with the money they have, that is way too much money to let it be, not saying they will do that, all I am saying is that they have the power this time, in 2017 they didn't had that chance.

Plus in 2018 we had two things, one of that was mt.gox trustee selling 35k+ bitcoin and at the time that was a lot of problem because we didn't had this many people in crypto, and late 2018 we had Craight Wright fighting BCH team for ownership and that caused a lot of drop as well.

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Quote from: yat97 on April 05, 2021, 06:05:52 PM

I think we're reaching the peak soon. So I was wondering, how much do you think we could get down to?

Any chance of bitcoin going below 10,000 USD? I really doubt it. I'm thinking maybe it might go below 20k but that's a maybe and only if bitcoin only goes up to maybe 80 at the peak of this bull market here soon. I know a lot of people think bitcoin will go to 300,000 or even a million but I really doubt that. I can see 80,000 and 100k for maybe a week or so but hopefully I'm wrong. I'm gonna buy more bitcoin here soon and grit my teeth if we start going down sooner than later. I'm saving a bit of cash, only half of what I'd normally spend, to buy during the bear market when it's doom and gloom and people thinking bitcoin is over or "when it comes out... ZERO" Idk if anyone gets that reference lol but yeah.

What do you guys think?

I think of something unexpected for the next coming weeks and even months, because right now the situation became so unpredictable for btc market. Though there's a significant continuous rise of price, but I feared bear market might exist so bloody. FUD was so intense and anytime it possible to pull down the entire cryptocurrency market again, just like before.
When that happens, don't let every chance to own bitcoin at cheaper value and never miss longer term holding.

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Quote from: plr on April 09, 2021, 11:16:17 PM

Quote from: yat97 on April 05, 2021, 06:05:52 PM

I think we're reaching the peak soon. So I was wondering, how much do you think we could get down to?

It depends on the situation I never thought last year that Bitcoin will hit below $5k but it happens because of the circumstances, the next bear market will depend on the situation that the market will bring to the market if there is no pandemic coming again the lower the price could go down is $15k, this is my speculation, it's not a guaranty.

Dont tend to connect out the pandemic with crypto market.Try to look on what happened way back on why bitcoin did make out some dips? Some said because of pandemic but its not actually
the main reason because the market had recovered already even though the pandemic situation becomes even more worst which does signify that it isnt the reason on why we head down there.
Same goes into that 2017 bubble burst where the market had crashed down wayback to 3k which everybody had never been anticipated for it to happen.
Anything could really happen into this market unexpectedly,even you do thought that it is impossible but it can truly happen on least expected.

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Quote from: Silberman on April 09, 2021, 11:13:37 PM

Quote from: magneto on April 07, 2021, 11:53:08 PM

I really highly doubt that we're going to see 4 digit BTC again.

People now fully appreciate that BTC indeed operate in 4 year cycles - whereby the peaks at halvings almost always outdoes the last halving, and there is a period of relative calm in between the bull markets.

With the market a lot more mature and institutional bagholders rolling in, I wouldn't be surprised if this "bear market" turns out to be just extremely small blip in the bigger long term picture. Keep DCA'ing now, don't try to wait for the bearish sentiment as it may never come.

I think in a way similar to this, even if what we were seeing now was just a repetition of the 2017 bull market that we saw back then even a price below 10k will be basically impossible, but this time around things are completely different, institutional investors have changed the way we think of this market forever, they are not going to let go of their bitcoin as easily as the weak hands that had those bitcoins before and when we take into account the low price they entered the market they are very likely to remain in profits even if the market crashed 50% or less so they will not have too much of a reason to sell in the future.

Anything is possible. Back in 2017 there was institutional investors also. Especially with the launch of the BTC futures. People were thinking an BTC ETF was going to appear shortly after and look what happened.

I don't think we will see 4 digit BTC either, however anything can happen. Right now everybody is greedy. However imagine Tesla sells, Saylor sells and MtGox coins are unlocked and we can see panic very fast and who knows, maybe 4 digit BTC.

Just like what happened back in Nov 2018, everybody was assuming $6K was the bottom and look what happened.

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Quote from: yat97 on April 05, 2021, 06:05:52 PM

I think we're reaching the peak soon. So I was wondering, how much do you think we could get down to?

It depends on the situation I never thought last year that Bitcoin will hit below $5k but it happens because of the circumstances, the next bear market will depend on the situation that the market will bring to the market if there is no pandemic coming again the lower the price could go down is $15k, this is my speculation, it's not a guaranty.

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Quote from: magneto on April 07, 2021, 11:53:08 PM

I really highly doubt that we're going to see 4 digit BTC again.

People now fully appreciate that BTC indeed operate in 4 year cycles - whereby the peaks at halvings almost always outdoes the last halving, and there is a period of relative calm in between the bull markets.

With the market a lot more mature and institutional bagholders rolling in, I wouldn't be surprised if this "bear market" turns out to be just extremely small blip in the bigger long term picture. Keep DCA'ing now, don't try to wait for the bearish sentiment as it may never come.

I think in a way similar to this, even if what we were seeing now was just a repetition of the 2017 bull market that we saw back then even a price below 10k will be basically impossible, but this time around things are completely different, institutional investors have changed the way we think of this market forever, they are not going to let go of their bitcoin as easily as the weak hands that had those bitcoins before and when we take into account the low price they entered the market they are very likely to remain in profits even if the market crashed 50% or less so they will not have too much of a reason to sell in the future.

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Do you think that Bitcoin still does not start due to the indecision of some investors in gold? The market has remained at almost $ 60k with a capitalization of 1 billion dollars, while gold has a capitalization of 11 billion dollars, plus the fact that there are 18.6 million BTC currently circulating represents 11.2% more that in 2017, of course these data are extracted from an interesting article by cointelegraph, where they conclude the following:

Quote

So to sum up, Bitcoin's average volume traded and large investors' holdings roughly match 10% of gold's markets. But while the $1 trillion market cap level may be a watershed moment for the next phase of Bitcoin adoption, BTC may remain pinned below $60,000 for quite some time, particularly as some analysts believe the price may only see a major surge toward the end of the year.

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/why-s-bitcoin-stuck-under-60-000-the-gold-market-cap-may-hold-the-answer

What I like about the article is that it corresponds to the prediction that bitcoin can reach $ 400k, it corresponds to the model established by PlanB, this is really very interesting because that scenario is more likely to occur than a bearish one.

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Quote from: justdimin on April 08, 2021, 03:01:01 PM

I believe that will definitely happen. I mean not happen in a sense. We reached above 20k already and I believe we are not going to see under 20k ever again like the previous ones. Whenever we end up doing will be result of that price point.

So, if we have a crash, even at a 50%+ crash we are talking about 30k right now, and that means if we drop even more we should be going under 20k but that seems like a challenge if you ask me. This is why I believe we are going to see some drop eventually, maybe in a month, maybe in a year, I don't know when but we will see a drop and in order for it to go under 20k that has to be a HUUUUUGE drop. I can't really guarantee anything because I do not want to confuse anyone, but the reality is that we are talking about something that would be very difficult to happen. This is why making decisions based on that fact makes things easier for me.

Yeah what I said, that I don't think it will happen (price go back down below previous ATH after making new one). But if it does, it will create a big reaction among many people. Weak hands are always something of a bad effect on markets but if the strong hands turn into weak hands, then we'll see a bloodbath never seen before.

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I have a prediction that bitcoin won't meet a huge correction, the pricr will just move sideaway when its price reach new all time high. Like this time, the $62.000 is an all time high and take a look for its price movement, just moving sideaway for at least two months and we haven't sesn a huge correction.

It will be like that when bitcoin price reach new all time high, yeah there are so many people who make a prediction that bitcoin price will going up again for the second time. And the target price is $100.000 and if the price is reached then most possibility for the price correction and move sideaway in the $80.000-95.000 area.

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Quote from: Wilhelm on April 06, 2021, 02:01:17 AM

Traditionally it will sink to 1/6th of the ATH.
Take 200k ATH and the bear will end just below 35k.

I also have a formula like this. Maybe 1/5 or 1/6th depend on ATH. So we must focus on ATH first, the peak price of Bitcoin after that we can use it as a reference, but I doubt it will be the same because today Crypto is stronger more than 4 years ago. So maybe 1/4th from ATH, I will start to buyback if reach this one

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I believe Bitcoin will still be bullish for the next few months, because the Bitcoin price could go up even higher. Especially seeing the price of
Bitcoin very stable in March with never correcting below the price of $ 50k, this proves that many holders are indeed investing in Bitcoin for
the long term. So I also have no intention of selling my Bitcoin in the near future. Moreover, a lot of good news about Bitcoin has sprung up
this month, making me optimistic that Bitcoin will return to the ATH price of $ 61k in the near future.

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Quote from: yat97 on April 05, 2021, 06:05:52 PM

I think we're reaching the peak soon. So I was wondering, how much do you think we could get down to?

Any chance of bitcoin going below 10,000 USD? I really doubt it. I'm thinking maybe it might go below 20k but that's a maybe and only if bitcoin only goes up to maybe 80 at the peak of this bull market here soon. I know a lot of people think bitcoin will go to 300,000 or even a million but I really doubt that. I can see 80,000 and 100k for maybe a week or so but hopefully I'm wrong. I'm gonna buy more bitcoin here soon and grit my teeth if we start going down sooner than later. I'm saving a bit of cash, only half of what I'd normally spend, to buy during the bear market when it's doom and gloom and people thinking bitcoin is over or "when it comes out... ZERO" Idk if anyone gets that reference lol but yeah.

What do you guys think?

If one day $10k below will again commence, that would be another opportunity for those who didn't give chance to bitcoin in times of uncertainties. Many of them had think that btc won't soar greatly, just like what's happening today that it reached $60k ATH. After that momentous price, many people had regrets specially those who bashed cryptocurrency as pyramiding scheme. Several negative speculations came out, but that doesn't stop the holders to pursue their plans and been earning their profit as reward of their sacrifices.

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Quote from: slaman29 on April 08, 2021, 05:06:13 AM

It also probably has never happened that Bitcoin makes a new ATH and then drops below the previous ATH (Like in the last rally, it went to 20k and never went below 2014's 1400). If this were to happen to Bitcoin now it would be a new experience and might cause worry to a lot of people, even long-term holders.

And it would be a huge crisis only that could cause it I think.

I believe that will definitely happen. I mean not happen in a sense. We reached above 20k already and I believe we are not going to see under 20k ever again like the previous ones. Whenever we end up doing will be result of that price point.

So, if we have a crash, even at a 50%+ crash we are talking about 30k right now, and that means if we drop even more we should be going under 20k but that seems like a challenge if you ask me. This is why I believe we are going to see some drop eventually, maybe in a month, maybe in a year, I don't know when but we will see a drop and in order for it to go under 20k that has to be a HUUUUUGE drop. I can't really guarantee anything because I do not want to confuse anyone, but the reality is that we are talking about something that would be very difficult to happen. This is why making decisions based on that fact makes things easier for me.

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Quote from: magneto on April 07, 2021, 11:53:08 PM

I really highly doubt that we're going to see 4 digit BTC again.

People now fully appreciate that BTC indeed operate in 4 year cycles - whereby the peaks at halvings almost always outdoes the last halving, and there is a period of relative calm in between the bull markets.

With the market a lot more mature and institutional bagholders rolling in, I wouldn't be surprised if this "bear market" turns out to be just extremely small blip in the bigger long term picture. Keep DCA'ing now, don't try to wait for the bearish sentiment as it may never come.

Me too. It also probably has never happened that Bitcoin makes a new ATH and then drops below the previous ATH (Like in the last rally, it went to 20k and never went below 2014's 1400). If this were to happen to Bitcoin now it would be a new experience and might cause worry to a lot of people, even long-term holders.

And it would be a huge crisis only that could cause it I think.

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Quote from: yat97 on April 05, 2021, 06:05:52 PM

Any chance of bitcoin going below 10,000 USD? I really doubt it. I'm thinking maybe it might go below 20k but that's a maybe and only if bitcoin only goes up to maybe 80 at the peak of this bull market here soon. I know a lot of people think bitcoin will go to 300,000 or even a million but I really doubt that. I can see 80,000 and 100k for maybe a week or so but hopefully I'm wrong.

In any case we are in a situation where bitcoin is definitely moving to opposite direction of what people believe but that's by design. Manipulation is something that can be done here without any problem from regulators, so whales do check the charts and see where it "should" go and then wait for people to share that info and when everyone thinks it will do that those rich people actually end up doing exactly the opposite so that they would make the most money.

Personally I am expecting bitcoin markets to test $100k to $200k by end of this year and then as per 4 year long cycle of bitcoin markets, we can see bears to come in action which may lead to 50 to 70% from the ATH.

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