Topic: How low could the next bear market move bitcoin? - page 4. (Read 657 times)

I'm really hoping the market doesn't rally at the top right now, I really really want this to be slower and reach the top in earliest 5 or 6 months. I am kind of enjoying this as I didn't really enjoy 2017 and would just want a few more months of this. Right guys? October is the earliest I'd want the top to come. But I hope 2022 is when it happens. Too hopeful?

A quick glance at the chart, the long term supports that I see are near $39,000 and $32,000 but in a bear market supports are often useless so nobody knows where it will get down to.

$10,000 USD per Bitcoin is still possible but chances of it to happen are close to zero. I don't think that it will go down to that price especially that many companies and establishments are integrating it to their business. A bear market will happen and that is inevitable but the level where it will bounce? I don't know but it will not go below $10,000. On the other hand, Bitcoin to $300,000 or even a Million is possible base on the S2F model but it will take a long time (at least) before it will happen and definitely not this year. Just save your cash just in case the bear market will happen this year so you can buy some near the bottom.

I'm still positive that this bull market is a bigger cycle that we could reach up to $100K. For now, there is still consolidation of BTC and altcoins but once it time changes right now price could burst once again to $70K.

It's either you have moved to stablecoin already and wanting to buy when the price dips but you must consider the time has changed already and Bitcoin had reached an adoption where a regular joe can plan on investing in BTC. $10K is way too low this time.

Traditionally it will sink to 1/6th of the ATH.
Take 200k ATH and the bear will end just below 35k.

This. I don't expect a real bear market soon, unlike what the OP thinks. The normal scenario is that we continue to go up, with some drawbacks, of course, that we clearly pass $100k, maybe we will get to quite a bit more and then, maybe we can enter a bear market.

Some predictions such as the supercycle theory doubt that we will even have a bear market this cycle.

I think the absolute lowest can be where most of the retail started to buy bitcoin. Most people I knew back in 2017 actually invested in BTC at $3.5K. They never took profits at $20K and when it hit $3.5K again they just sold for break-even.

So ask yourself this. This bull market when did the majority of retail people enter. I don't think many entered at $10K and neither $15K. I do however remember many people buying at $19.5K because they all assumed it would break ATH and head to like $400K. So those people are currently sitting on lots of profit. So what will they do if it revisits $19.5K? Most likely sell at break-even and go back up again.

Possibly all the way down to 5 digits.

OP, I wouldn't worry about getting beyond $80k. Bitcoin has been building a base at $50k unlike anything we saw during the 2017 bull run. What I'm saying is that market participants are getting very used to $50,000s and $80k or even $100k really isn't that much higher at all, so the idea that hitting those prices would result in a crash is not something you need to worry about. Crashes happen when the price shoots up so high so quickly it gets completely unsustainable. It only needs to go up about 70% from this level to hit $100k, that's about the size of a solid 1 month move that would get a few weeks of correction following it, nothing close to a giant crash and bear market. If price went from $60k to like $150k in the next couple months now sure that would probably make a blow off top and crash, but I think it'll take much longer to get to that sort of price, which seems pretty clear if you look at the price action the past two months.

Seeing how the market is maturing and stabilizing leads me to think we won't have another crypto winter like we're used to. If we don't see under $50k this month or next month then I wouldn't be surprised if we never see under $50k again. Market isn't FOMOing in, the market is just gradually growing. Not even the retail market is FOMOing. The game has changed. The market is starting to mature. Look for $80k this spring, $100k+ this summer, but that's just gradual progression, nothing "peaky" about that. We could see $150k by end of year, but consider bitcoin hit $58k in February, $150k by end of year doesn't require some huge peak to happen. Maybe we'll get a moderate downturn at some point and see price drop 50% over a few months before it turns green again, but even that probably wouldn't even drop it to current price levels (assuming this downturn happens towards the end of this year or next year). Worrying about $10k or $20k or $30k just isn't realistic. The market is no longer 100% retail investors FOMOing in to something they just heard about in order to get rich quick. Market is much more "hey this is a store of value let's gradually get some exposure to it", which is not the sort of atmosphere that results in a 80% crash.

Not really sure that we are reaching the peak already, maybe we are just in the middle of it.

Bitcoin has a lot of room to grow, some modelling flow like S2F points that we will touch 6 digits in this bull run.

$10k? Yes, I highly doubt it as well, maybe we won't see $40k here because of the current hype and FOMO from institutions and big companies. Someone suggested to used DCA, maybe this thread will help you out: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/benefits-of-following-dca-dollar-cost-averaging-5168667

Below 30k, 20k, 10k, who knows.
But what's the point of being bothered about it? No matter how low it may go, we all knows it will go up during a bull market with a price twice and even thrice than the previous. It past  phase can say more.

Also, what if it never go that low? Over the years a lot of people have been expecting it to burst that low yet it keeps on booming. I feel we are sometimes worrying and creating tension when there isn't.

We don't know how far this pump ends but just think about good things as the whales are still there hyping bitcoin and adopting it for good used also the target to reach at 6 digits is not yet happening so maybe its good to believe that we can see more rather than worrying about the bear market crash.

First, try to visit the Speculation board there are tons of predictions there that may enlighten you about the movement in the market.

IMO, the $50K mark is something that we had to consider, in my own observation, the bear market doesn’t get less than 30% of the highest price achieved.  Meaning to say that it is possible for Bitcoin to go as low as $15K but never in less than that amount.

As I remember, when Bitcoin reached the $20K mark, it never went down to $5K ever again. 
Same when Bitcoin has barely started.  But again, for disclaimers, it is not impossible for Bitcoin to go down that level because it’s Bitcoin.  A very much volatile market we chose to be involved in and another factor is that the price is unpredictable.

$8K is still very possible and is a level that I personally consider as a strong support. Next to 3K. Bitcoin pretty much loitered around 8K for a very long time before  spiking to 60K recently, and I believe if the bear market sets in we can easily go back to those ranges. Just look at how easily bitcoin has broken through different resistances in the past few months. I think the same will happen when it breaks through support levels during a bear Market.

Well, bitcoin's extreme volatility means you have to think long term, not months, let alone weeks. So, although I remain confident bitcoin will still trade higher in the longer term, I think the coming weeks could be difficult for it.

You know, it's hard to know exactly. But I think there is a target for the next major low, and it's probably below $35,000, maybe down to $25,000. But it's very hard to know exactly. But we'll see.

I'd say there is a possibility that we can get back to 30k or slightly lower. The fact that the land of cryptocurrency is evolving and there are better solutions now. If BTC doesnt evolve along with the new or up and coming projects. There is a chance that it becomes obsolete in the next 5-10 years as more and more people get educated about cryptocurrencies and find the pros and cons of each of them(I hope not).

I don't think the price will go below 20k. If that price is what you eyeing to buy bitcoin, I don't think that will happen. Just my opinion. The 50k price level has very strong support, and if bitcoin will go down, I think, it will just go down to 40k no less. Just keep up with the market and see where it is heading to. There are so many things happening in crypto market right now. Institutions and big companies are trying to get a hold of their own bitcoin stash.

i think you should forget about timing the market and simply buy 50 usd worth a week for the next 50 weeks.

if that is too much buy 50 usd every other week for the next 50 weeks.
if that is too little buy 100 usd a week for the next 50 weeks.


note the key is to DCA for 50 weeks.


once you do that.  reassess your next move.

I've learned not to doubt those high prices and speculations that were given because I've seen it come to $60k which was also doubtful before. We're in crypto and things can happen as much as it can and $10k and below can still happen but I say that if there's a chance that would only be the lowest that I can think of, maybe 1%. I agree that $20k would be the possible lowest or a range up to $30k but we don't know until the peak has been really reached which seems $60k isn't the only peak.

I think we're reaching the peak soon. So I was wondering, how much do you think we could get down to?

Any chance of bitcoin going below 10,000 USD? I really doubt it. I'm thinking maybe it might go below 20k but that's a maybe and only if bitcoin only goes up to maybe 80 at the peak of this bull market here soon. I know a lot of people think bitcoin will go to 300,000 or even a million but I really doubt that. I can see 80,000 and 100k for maybe a week or so but hopefully I'm wrong. I'm gonna buy more bitcoin here soon and grit my teeth if we start going down sooner than later. I'm saving a bit of cash, only half of what I'd normally spend, to buy during the bear market when it's doom and gloom and people thinking bitcoin is over or "when it comes out... ZERO" Idk if anyone gets that reference lol but yeah.


What do you guys think?