How many bitcoins can be produced in a single day?

sadpandatech

hero member

Activity: 504

Merit: 500

Quote from: Meni Rosenfeld on June 27, 2012, 03:47:42 AM

Quote from: SgtSpike on June 26, 2012, 04:41:11 PM

Quote from: sadpandatech on June 26, 2012, 03:51:14 PM

I see it pretty much the way you do. That does still leave us with an entity that is not motivated by money and simply wanted to destroy bitcoin.

This is true. I should have concluded my post with "I would completely eliminate the possibility of a 51% attack happening by any profit-motivated malicious attacker."

1. Take a short position on BTC.
2. Destroy Bitcoin with a 51% attack.
3. Profit.

mhmm
Is there anything you don't think of? =)

Meni Rosenfeld

donator

Activity: 2058

Merit: 1054

Quote from: SgtSpike on June 26, 2012, 04:41:11 PM

Quote from: sadpandatech on June 26, 2012, 03:51:14 PM

I see it pretty much the way you do. That does still leave us with an entity that is not motivated by money and simply wanted to destroy bitcoin.

This is true. I should have concluded my post with "I would completely eliminate the possibility of a 51% attack happening by any profit-motivated malicious attacker."

1. Take a short position on BTC.
2. Destroy Bitcoin with a 51% attack.
3. Profit.

FreeMoney

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1016

Strength in numbers

Technically... the rest of them. But really just a few times the normal amount in a day will send difficulty skyrocketing and bring it back to the average amount quickly.

imsaguy

vip

Activity: 574

Merit: 500

Don't send me a pm unless you gpg encrypt it.

Quote from: crazy_rabbit on June 27, 2012, 01:08:35 AM

It's a good question given their track record. That said, in the past they were new at this and selling to a skeptical client base. I assume if they are smart enough to build and ASIC they are smart enough to solve their supply chain bottlenecks.

Assuming killed the cat.. or something.

crazy_rabbit

legendary

Activity: 1204

Merit: 1002

RUM AND CARROTS: A PIRATE LIFE FOR ME

Quote from: MrTeal on June 26, 2012, 02:01:09 PM

Quote from: crazy_rabbit on June 26, 2012, 10:46:43 AM

Quote from: MrTeal on June 25, 2012, 08:11:19 PM

Quote from: sadpandatech on June 25, 2012, 07:47:33 PM

Quote from: Paladin69 on June 25, 2012, 07:07:33 PM

I'm trying to visualize what this all means. Soon the 7200 bitcoins per day max will be halved to 3600.

So now we have 3600 bitcoins spread out among...what would people guess...200TH/s once ASIC hits? 2,000TH/s?

aye, it's really hard to speculate now and comes down to just how much miners are willing to spend to buy asics. The preorders currently put the new hash rate at maybe 45TH by reward halving(much citation needed still). And will be largely influenced by how well the release goes and whether that encourages more miners to buy equipment or not.

BFL won't get to 2000TH/s any time soon. If you think about it, using the current SC ASICs that would be 2000 MiniRigs or 50,000 singles. Given the little we know about BFL's production and assuming that the new singles/minirigs take as long to produce as the old ones, how long do you think it will take to get 50,000 singles out the door? Of course, the $70M that would bring in at current prices finance quite the expansion.

We know via Bit-Pay that they got at least a quarter million dollars yesterday alone.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitpay-shatters-record-for-bitcoin-payment-processing-2012-06-26

That buys 8.3 minirigs or 8.3 Terahashes.

Do you think they'll be able to ship out 8.3TH/s worth of gear in one day?

It's a good question given their track record. That said, in the past they were new at this and selling to a skeptical client base. I assume if they are smart enough to build and ASIC they are smart enough to solve their supply chain bottlenecks.

SgtSpike

legendary

Activity: 1400

Merit: 1005

Quote from: sadpandatech on June 26, 2012, 03:51:14 PM

Quote from: SgtSpike on June 26, 2012, 02:38:06 PM

If I was a malicious attacker with 51%, I'd prevent everyone's transactions from happening and ask for a significant ransom. Once the ransom is paid, then I'd resume normal activity. And maybe rinse and repeat a little while later.

That's the only way I can see that I'd be potentially profitable without being traceable. I can't imagine a double-spend actually working. I'd probably end up getting caught and going to jail. It'd be hard to buy ANY physical good without leaving some sort of trail. And asking for higher transaction fees might work, but it'd be the lower-profit option, I believe.

Now, if I was a reasonable person with 51%, I'd just mine the heck out of Bitcoins and have a nice pile of them to do whatever I want with. Seriously, if you're money-motivated, and have 51%, THAT is the best option. It won't reduce confidence in Bitcoin (and thus your Bitcoin net worth), and it would continue to be profitable long into the future (whereas a double-spend or ransom attack would only be profitable in the short term).

Basically, I would completely eliminate the possibility of a 51% attack happening. I don't see why any reasonable person would do it. It would make them less money than simply mining with that hashing power.

I see it pretty much the way you do. That does still leave us with an entity that is not motivated by money and simply wanted to destroy bitcoin.

This is true. I should have concluded my post with "I would completely eliminate the possibility of a 51% attack happening by any profit-motivated malicious attacker."

Cablez

legendary

Activity: 1400

Merit: 1000

I owe my soul to the Bitcoin code...

'Some men just want to see the world burn.' Grin

Sorry I couldn't resist

sadpandatech

hero member

Activity: 504

Merit: 500

Quote from: SgtSpike on June 26, 2012, 02:38:06 PM

If I was a malicious attacker with 51%, I'd prevent everyone's transactions from happening and ask for a significant ransom. Once the ransom is paid, then I'd resume normal activity. And maybe rinse and repeat a little while later.

That's the only way I can see that I'd be potentially profitable without being traceable. I can't imagine a double-spend actually working. I'd probably end up getting caught and going to jail. It'd be hard to buy ANY physical good without leaving some sort of trail. And asking for higher transaction fees might work, but it'd be the lower-profit option, I believe.

Now, if I was a reasonable person with 51%, I'd just mine the heck out of Bitcoins and have a nice pile of them to do whatever I want with. Seriously, if you're money-motivated, and have 51%, THAT is the best option. It won't reduce confidence in Bitcoin (and thus your Bitcoin net worth), and it would continue to be profitable long into the future (whereas a double-spend or ransom attack would only be profitable in the short term).

Basically, I would completely eliminate the possibility of a 51% attack happening. I don't see why any reasonable person would do it. It would make them less money than simply mining with that hashing power.

I see it pretty much the way you do. That does still leave us with an entity that is not motivated by money and simply wanted to destroy bitcoin.

SgtSpike

legendary

Activity: 1400

Merit: 1005

If I was a malicious attacker with 51%, I'd prevent everyone's transactions from happening and ask for a significant ransom. Once the ransom is paid, then I'd resume normal activity. And maybe rinse and repeat a little while later.

That's the only way I can see that I'd be potentially profitable without being traceable. I can't imagine a double-spend actually working. I'd probably end up getting caught and going to jail. It'd be hard to buy ANY physical good without leaving some sort of trail. And asking for higher transaction fees might work, but it'd be the lower-profit option, I believe.

Now, if I was a reasonable person with 51%, I'd just mine the heck out of Bitcoins and have a nice pile of them to do whatever I want with. Seriously, if you're money-motivated, and have 51%, THAT is the best option. It won't reduce confidence in Bitcoin (and thus your Bitcoin net worth), and it would continue to be profitable long into the future (whereas a double-spend or ransom attack would only be profitable in the short term).

Basically, I would completely eliminate the possibility of a 51% attack happening. I don't see why any reasonable person would do it. It would make them less money than simply mining with that hashing power.

MrTeal

legendary

Activity: 1274

Merit: 1004

Quote from: crazy_rabbit on June 26, 2012, 10:46:43 AM

Quote from: MrTeal on June 25, 2012, 08:11:19 PM

Quote from: sadpandatech on June 25, 2012, 07:47:33 PM

Quote from: Paladin69 on June 25, 2012, 07:07:33 PM

I'm trying to visualize what this all means. Soon the 7200 bitcoins per day max will be halved to 3600.

So now we have 3600 bitcoins spread out among...what would people guess...200TH/s once ASIC hits? 2,000TH/s?

aye, it's really hard to speculate now and comes down to just how much miners are willing to spend to buy asics. The preorders currently put the new hash rate at maybe 45TH by reward halving(much citation needed still). And will be largely influenced by how well the release goes and whether that encourages more miners to buy equipment or not.

BFL won't get to 2000TH/s any time soon. If you think about it, using the current SC ASICs that would be 2000 MiniRigs or 50,000 singles. Given the little we know about BFL's production and assuming that the new singles/minirigs take as long to produce as the old ones, how long do you think it will take to get 50,000 singles out the door? Of course, the $70M that would bring in at current prices finance quite the expansion.

We know via Bit-Pay that they got at least a quarter million dollars yesterday alone.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitpay-shatters-record-for-bitcoin-payment-processing-2012-06-26

That buys 8.3 minirigs or 8.3 Terahashes.

Do you think they'll be able to ship out 8.3TH/s worth of gear in one day?

crazy_rabbit

legendary

Activity: 1204

Merit: 1002

RUM AND CARROTS: A PIRATE LIFE FOR ME

Quote from: MrTeal on June 25, 2012, 08:11:19 PM

Quote from: sadpandatech on June 25, 2012, 07:47:33 PM

Quote from: Paladin69 on June 25, 2012, 07:07:33 PM

I'm trying to visualize what this all means. Soon the 7200 bitcoins per day max will be halved to 3600.

So now we have 3600 bitcoins spread out among...what would people guess...200TH/s once ASIC hits? 2,000TH/s?

aye, it's really hard to speculate now and comes down to just how much miners are willing to spend to buy asics. The preorders currently put the new hash rate at maybe 45TH by reward halving(much citation needed still). And will be largely influenced by how well the release goes and whether that encourages more miners to buy equipment or not.

BFL won't get to 2000TH/s any time soon. If you think about it, using the current SC ASICs that would be 2000 MiniRigs or 50,000 singles. Given the little we know about BFL's production and assuming that the new singles/minirigs take as long to produce as the old ones, how long do you think it will take to get 50,000 singles out the door? Of course, the $70M that would bring in at current prices finance quite the expansion.

We know via Bit-Pay that they got at least a quarter million dollars yesterday alone.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitpay-shatters-record-for-bitcoin-payment-processing-2012-06-26

That buys 8.3 minirigs or 8.3 Terahashes.

MrTeal

legendary

Activity: 1274

Merit: 1004

Quote from: sadpandatech on June 25, 2012, 07:47:33 PM

Quote from: Paladin69 on June 25, 2012, 07:07:33 PM

I'm trying to visualize what this all means. Soon the 7200 bitcoins per day max will be halved to 3600.

So now we have 3600 bitcoins spread out among...what would people guess...200TH/s once ASIC hits? 2,000TH/s?

aye, it's really hard to speculate now and comes down to just how much miners are willing to spend to buy asics. The preorders currently put the new hash rate at maybe 45TH by reward halving(much citation needed still). And will be largely influenced by how well the release goes and whether that encourages more miners to buy equipment or not.

BFL won't get to 2000TH/s any time soon. If you think about it, using the current SC ASICs that would be 2000 MiniRigs or 50,000 singles. Given the little we know about BFL's production and assuming that the new singles/minirigs take as long to produce as the old ones, how long do you think it will take to get 50,000 singles out the door? Of course, the $70M that would bring in at current prices finance quite the expansion.

sadpandatech

hero member

Activity: 504

Merit: 500

Quote from: Paladin69 on June 25, 2012, 07:07:33 PM

I'm trying to visualize what this all means. Soon the 7200 bitcoins per day max will be halved to 3600.

So now we have 3600 bitcoins spread out among...what would people guess...200TH/s once ASIC hits? 2,000TH/s?

aye, it's really hard to speculate now and comes down to just how much miners are willing to spend to buy asics. The preorders currently put the new hash rate at maybe 45TH by reward halving(much citation needed still). And will be largely influenced by how well the release goes and whether that encourages more miners to buy equipment or not.

Paladin69

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 1000

I'm trying to visualize what this all means. Soon the 7200 bitcoins per day max will be halved to 3600.

So now we have 3600 bitcoins spread out among...what would people guess...200TH/s once ASIC hits? 2,000TH/s?

rjk

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

1ngldh

Quote from: sadpandatech on June 25, 2012, 02:17:21 PM

Once all this new 'allegedly' available asic tech comes online the network will be a shit ton stronger against this sort of attack.

so BFL = savior of the blockchain
and BFL = destroyer of miner's dreams

If it materializes, then yes pretty much. Along with Vladimir's proposed ASIC farm, the difficulty in the future is going to be damn high.

sadpandatech

hero member

Activity: 504

Merit: 500

Once all this new 'allegedly' available asic tech comes online the network will be a shit ton stronger against this sort of attack.

so BFL = savior of the blockchain
and BFL = destroyer of miner's dreams

mcorlett

donator

Activity: 308

Merit: 250

Quote from: sadpandatech on June 25, 2012, 12:54:49 PM

ahh, thought they could atleast cheat the difficulty. Soo, if they had the hash power to build a matching chain would they not make more money by just mining thereal chain? Or would the benefit have to be not neccesairly motivated by money then?

Actually, they sort of can. There is the "Zeitgeist attack". (I prefer "Time travel attack", but that's beside the point.)

It works on the premise of artificially modifying the block timestamps so as to "confuse" the algorithm that retargets the difficulty. ArtForz describes it here.

tl;dr: an attacker can perform the attack with marginally less hashing power

rjk

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

1ngldh

Quote from: sadpandatech on June 25, 2012, 12:54:49 PM

ahh, thought they could atleast cheat the difficulty. Soo, if they had the hash power to build a matching chain would they not make more money by just mining thereal chain? Or would the benefit have to be not neccesairly motivated by money then?

haha, I love the fee extortion idea. ;p Why not, it seems someone actually doing this would have to be a bit bonkers to begin with. ;p

Well at that point, they would have all the coins mined from their fake chain which has now been accepted as real, as well as whatever they were able to bilk out of the merchants that they fleeced with a double-spend.

In other words, a shit ton of coins.

imsaguy

vip

Activity: 574

Merit: 500

Don't send me a pm unless you gpg encrypt it.

Quote from: mcorlett on June 25, 2012, 12:51:25 PM

Quote from: imsaguy on June 25, 2012, 12:47:27 PM

Or something a bit more subtle.. like refusing to include transactions unless a higher transaction fee is paid. Sure other people could try to mine them, but eventually, they'll be orphaned.

Meh, they would make more from screwing over a single merchant with a double-spend than a lifetime of transaction fee extortion, and people would abandon Bitcoin in both cases.

Eventually this will happen anyway once the rewarding drops further. You'll see further consolidation as mining margins shrink which will slowly give the mining companies much more say with what goes on.

sadpandatech

hero member

Activity: 504

Merit: 500

Quote from: rjk on June 25, 2012, 12:47:41 PM

Quote from: sadpandatech on June 25, 2012, 12:45:42 PM

Quote from: mcorlett on June 25, 2012, 12:43:31 PM

Quote from: sadpandatech on June 25, 2012, 12:36:31 PM

Aye, so pretty much like I'm imagining then. Sooo, how many merchants are able to deliver a product before the blocks resume and the chargeback happens. I mean if the 51% is sustained long enough to be noticed by devs would we not be able to fork from it?

You don't know until it's too late. The attacker starts mining on a chain of their own, without broadcasting the blocks to the network. They could be 100 blocks ahead of us right now, and you wouldn't know it. On their chain they're still in possession of their bitcoins, while they spend them all on our chain. When they're happy with the fruits of their spending frenzy, they unleash upon us their chain, which is immediately accepted because it is longer.

ahhhh, I see.

So the only other hurdle for them is building a chain to match the length of the current one before joining? Of course they can likely do this all at difficulty 1?

The chain building must conform to the current network parameters, including difficulty. It must be built without leaking onto the internet at any point (slightly difficult), and if it doesn't match what the network expects when it is released, that would cause it to be rejected and all that hash power wasted.

ahh, thought they could atleast cheat the difficulty. Soo, if they had the hash power to build a matching chain would they not make more money by just mining thereal chain? Or would the benefit have to be not neccesairly motivated by money then?

haha, I love the fee extortion idea. ;p Why not, it seems someone actually doing this would have to be a bit bonkers to begin with. ;p

Topic: How many bitcoins can be produced in a single day? (Read 14016 times)