How much can you predict this sh*t?! Or is it pure gamble?

shield132

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Quote from: mersal on May 08, 2021, 02:16:55 PM

Technical analysis based on lot of indicators may give an idea about the future price movements but there is no one can predict it accurately if they did it then they are just lucky though. Trading is purely speculation so its not completely a gamble but kind of thing so you need luck and skills to be successful here.

Also, make use of the news sources and whale indicators.

Could technical analysis predict Elon Musk's statements or China's statements? Could technical analysis predict that BNB would become 680 from 20 USD? Could technical analysis predict that Zcash would immediately drop from the very first day ATH and never ever reaching that one?

What can technical analysis predict in an emotionally driven market? I guess, nothing significant.

SacriFries11

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Quote from: martina14 on May 18, 2021, 06:39:57 PM

If you are planning to invest or buying one of the Shitc**ns this is not a pure gamble instead it is a pure risky to invest.
Maybe out of 100% there is only 5% chances for you to get earnings with it dude in my own assessment. Though, for now I cannot deny a lot of the shitcoins in the market are rising while bitcoin price value was down. But just like the other says do it at your own risk.

I guess that's purely risky with pure gamble when it comes to shtcoins. Joining presale and the sell after the listed. Some project team rug the project. I experienced joining the presale and get scam. I didn't do it ever again. Trading is lot harder but if I do it properly with some knowledge and combination of TA and FA, I know I can get profit. It takes time and hard work before you can get profit in trading, there are times that you really doubt yourself unlike others that they have already background in trading like stocks and forex trading.

tvplus006

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The value of bitcoin or any altcoin is based on supply and demand, there are also some ways to identify if the value of bitcoin would go down or go up based on technical analysis, there are so many indicators that will tell if the value may go down or up, but there is no way for us to identify the accurate value of bitcoin for the next minute or hour. Do not compare gambling to trading as both things are different, yes both are similar in terms of the risk but you need to have a lot of knowledge to be successful in trading while gambling is a pure luck.

Technical analysis will not help you if someone decides to sell a large amount of bitcoins at the market price to buy a house or a yacht. And if this amount of BTC is really large, it will lead to a sharp decline in the price and possibly cause stop loss sales, which will again lead to a further decline in the price.

Ararbermas

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Quote from: 9thsky on May 08, 2021, 02:06:33 PM

From 50/50 (it could swing either way and you can have zero knowledge on which way it'll swing), to %1-100 being able to know before hand, how much can you know?

What causes prices to go up? What causes them to go down? Obviously, no one knows for certain when it would happened, but has there been a consistent "pattern" lately? When prices have gone down, have you known to a reasonable degree than they would bounce back up? How?

if you really updated on the project where you make an investment then for sure you can prevent such scenario. Indeed most of the reason that can really affect the project nowadays is from social media.. If you used to visit the social media using some related content about the project or making research then you're smart investor, what i mean every day you always have an information such what's the situation of the project and etc just to prevent such scenario in my opinion.

karungbitcoin

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Trading will be not gamble if we did it with knowledge and patience. On the any market, there are always 2 trend, that is bearish and bullish. We can predict it when that trend start and when will end from the history of the market. From my analysis, the trend of bullish market will happening for every 3-4 year. If we look closely, the history of crypto market, we can see 3 time of Bitcoin bull run and then turn in to bearish. I think for the dumped of currently market will end and bounce back later because this market still on bullish period.

jaberwock

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Quote from: martina14 on May 18, 2021, 06:39:57 PM

If you are planning to invest or buying one of the Shitc**ns this is not a pure gamble instead it is a pure risky to invest.
Maybe out of 100% there is only 5% chances for you to get earnings with it dude in my own assessment. Though, for now I cannot deny a lot of the shitcoins in the market are rising while bitcoin price value was down. But just like the other says do it at your own risk.

Investing or trading shitcoins/memecoins/hyped coins should always be considered as a short term venture. You cannot expect to hold a shit coin or in simple words, a coin that has no value outside its market price because that would eventually result in loss and almost very rarely profit. Imagine someone holding dogecoins when it was something like $0.001 or so and now they can say they are millionaires but that was pure luck and this happens like once in a billion times.

Predicting the price of any cryptocurrency is nearly impossible because you don't know how many traders and investors are there and what they feel about the coin. But at least when you invest in a utility coin, you can rest assured that someday people will realize the potential and then you reap rewards.

fullhdpixel

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Quote from: milewilda on May 18, 2021, 03:44:08 PM

Reasons for rise?
1. Adoption/Recognition
2. Hype/Shill
3. Unknown factor(Increase by its own)

Well, there are other reasons as well like the announcements being made in the market be it Paypal supporting bitcoins purchase or be it Musk disapproving the bitcoin payments for his company. The market doesn't completely rely on these news but at least it gives a hint in which direction the market will move.

Quote from: milewilda on May 18, 2021, 03:44:08 PM

Reason for dumps?
1. FUD
2. Hacking incidents
3. Profit taking
4. Again, no actual reason

Some other reasons for dump might be competition in the market. A lot of people started selling their Ethereum when they heard a new giant is coming in the name of PolkaDot but I don't think that was true as Ethereum continues to grow. If a better coin than Bitcoin arrives in the market, which although is hard, I am sure the popularity of Bitcoin will take a hit.

martina14

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If you are planning to invest or buying one of the Shitc**ns this is not a pure gamble instead it is a pure risky to invest.
Maybe out of 100% there is only 5% chances for you to get earnings with it dude in my own assessment. Though, for now I cannot deny a lot of the shitcoins in the market are rising while bitcoin price value was down. But just like the other says do it at your own risk.

Quidat

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Quote from: Hypnosis00 on May 18, 2021, 05:42:40 PM

Quote from: harapan on May 18, 2021, 04:33:56 PM

Quote from: 9thsky on May 08, 2021, 02:06:33 PM

From 50/50 (it could swing either way and you can have zero knowledge on which way it'll swing), to %1-100 being able to know before hand, how much can you know?

What causes prices to go up? What causes them to go down? Obviously, no one knows for certain when it would happened, but has there been a consistent "pattern" lately? When prices have gone down, have you known to a reasonable degree than they would bounce back up? How?

The market is very volatile and unpredictable, no matter the amount of indicators you make use of they can't still tell the future, they can only help you know whee the market is heading, no technical analysis is 100% correct, that's why you see even prefessional traders have losing trades, prices go up when there are goodnews and vice versa for price going down, that's why you need both technical analysis and fundamental to predict market movements.

Well, TA and Fundamental analysis are a part of trading. Though it was accepted that we can't predict the exact price of Bitcoin nor seeing its direction but it is a need for us to make market analysis and continue doing that, and why? Because it was necessary and that TA's places an important role in trading otherwise, you will be badly. And you can see a big difference when are trading knowing nothing compared to when you have some idea of what is going on in the market.

You can really compare between the two into those traders or investors who do make use of technicals and to those who do just blindly make out some moves without any basis.
There are really differences to those who are experience and to those who are just starting or doesnt really know much about these things.Its not pure gamble
if you do apply something on it like some sort of analysis that you made up. Predicting is always been hard due to lots of factors
but due to experience you would able to sustain yourself.

Hypnosis00

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Quote from: harapan on May 18, 2021, 04:33:56 PM

Quote from: 9thsky on May 08, 2021, 02:06:33 PM

From 50/50 (it could swing either way and you can have zero knowledge on which way it'll swing), to %1-100 being able to know before hand, how much can you know?

What causes prices to go up? What causes them to go down? Obviously, no one knows for certain when it would happened, but has there been a consistent "pattern" lately? When prices have gone down, have you known to a reasonable degree than they would bounce back up? How?

The market is very volatile and unpredictable, no matter the amount of indicators you make use of they can't still tell the future, they can only help you know whee the market is heading, no technical analysis is 100% correct, that's why you see even prefessional traders have losing trades, prices go up when there are goodnews and vice versa for price going down, that's why you need both technical analysis and fundamental to predict market movements.

Well, TA and Fundamental analysis are a part of trading. Though it was accepted that we can't predict the exact price of Bitcoin nor seeing its direction but it is a need for us to make market analysis and continue doing that, and why? Because it was necessary and that TA's places an important role in trading otherwise, you will be badly. And you can see a big difference when are trading knowing nothing compared to when you have some idea of what is going on in the market.

harapan

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Quote from: 9thsky on May 08, 2021, 02:06:33 PM

From 50/50 (it could swing either way and you can have zero knowledge on which way it'll swing), to %1-100 being able to know before hand, how much can you know?

What causes prices to go up? What causes them to go down? Obviously, no one knows for certain when it would happened, but has there been a consistent "pattern" lately? When prices have gone down, have you known to a reasonable degree than they would bounce back up? How?

The market is very volatile and unpredictable, no matter the amount of indicators you make use of they can't still tell the future, they can only help you know whee the market is heading, no technical analysis is 100% correct, that's why you see even prefessional traders have losing trades, prices go up when there are goodnews and vice versa for price going down, that's why you need both technical analysis and fundamental to predict market movements.

abel1337

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Quote from: milewilda on May 18, 2021, 03:44:08 PM

Quote from: 9thsky on May 08, 2021, 02:06:33 PM

From 50/50 (it could swing either way and you can have zero knowledge on which way it'll swing), to %1-100 being able to know before hand, how much can you know?

What causes prices to go up? What causes them to go down? Obviously, no one knows for certain when it would happened, but has there been a consistent "pattern" lately? When prices have gone down, have you known to a reasonable degree than they would bounce back up? How?

There's no such patter because this market doesnt really react on technicals on precise manner so its really hard to tell.
Reasons for rise?
1. Adoption/Recognition
2. Hype/Shill
3. Unknown factor(Increase by its own)

Reason for dumps?
1. FUD
2. Hacking incidents
3. Profit taking
4. Again, no actual reason

There is always a pattern in the crypto market, I believe that technical analysis is a strong way that traders could rely on. Support/Resistance, Historical Data, Market patterns, and other factors matters that can help people raise their winning chance in trading. Those reasons for pump and dump that you provided were justifiable but if the market doesn't react on technicals, why would traders study hard learning all about charts?

milewilda

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Quote from: 9thsky on May 08, 2021, 02:06:33 PM

From 50/50 (it could swing either way and you can have zero knowledge on which way it'll swing), to %1-100 being able to know before hand, how much can you know?

What causes prices to go up? What causes them to go down? Obviously, no one knows for certain when it would happened, but has there been a consistent "pattern" lately? When prices have gone down, have you known to a reasonable degree than they would bounce back up? How?

There's no such patter because this market doesnt really react on technicals on precise manner so its really hard to tell.
Reasons for rise?
1. Adoption/Recognition
2. Hype/Shill
3. Unknown factor(Increase by its own)

Reason for dumps?
1. FUD
2. Hacking incidents
3. Profit taking
4. Again, no actual reason

wxa7115

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Quote from: mk4 on May 08, 2021, 11:13:13 PM

The problem here is you actually trying to predict price movements. If someone could with good accuracy, then gawd damn he/she must be one of the richest people now. Traders just use charts to check out the odds of prices going up/down(by really tight percentages), but not necessarily predict them.

This is a very nice way to put it since those are words everyone can understand, the traders that are successful do not really try to predict when or at what level the price will turn around or things like that, they try to enter the market when a specific setup happens.

They do this because they know the particular setup they are chasing has a higher probability to give them profits than if they just entered the market randomly, this is why good traders can spend full days or even weeks without making a single trade as not a single setup takes place, but once it does they are decisive and enter the market as soon as it happens, and as you say if someone could predict what the market will do in an accurate way then that person very quickly would become one of the richest persons around the world even if his capital was minimal, which is why predicting what the market will do accurately is impossible.

jinxing

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Quote from: tvplus006 on May 15, 2021, 10:31:39 AM

Quote from: jinxing on May 13, 2021, 04:45:39 PM

sometimes analysis can approach accuracy in reading market price movements, but as we know in a matter of seconds the predictions we believe can change drastically because they are confused by whales who are able to pump and dump at any time

If the holder, who has thousands of bitcoins in his account, decides that he urgently needs a yacht and he sells BTC at the market price, this will entail a dump of bitcoin, and with it the dump of the entire market. So very often, such spontaneous decisions to sell BTC have nothing to do with politics or any other news.

yes, but the existence of large disposals by owners of large capital can certainly affect market prices. sometimes it can be detrimental and beneficial to some people

Mpamaegbu

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Quote from: 9thsky on May 08, 2021, 02:06:33 PM

From 50/50 (it could swing either way and you can have zero knowledge on which way it'll swing), to %1-100 being able to know before hand, how much can you know?

It's because no one truly knows where the market will head to in the next minutes that the SL (Stop Loss) is advised to be used. Trading is highly speculative in nature. Some people have even likened it to gambling (which it isn't, anyway). Perhaps may be because it also has the same risk which gambling has. But generally life itself is risk just like every other business is. On what pushes price up, I will say it's FOMO. Nothing else. The fear of missing out creates the urgent demand for a certain project and that gets more people struggling to buy in without knowing why others started buying in the first place. This scramble causes more people to buy at whatever price that's available for them and price goes up more.

suzanne5223

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Quote from: 9thsky on May 08, 2021, 02:06:33 PM

What causes prices to go up?

There are some specific things that cause market price to go up which block halving is one of the thing, market manipulation, good news, influential person or company accumulation, mining diffculty, level of market demand and supply.

Quote from: 9thsky on May 08, 2021, 02:06:33 PM

What causes them to go down?

market manipulation (though it help in price increase but it also use to cause dump in price either), fud news, influential person or company exit, mining diffculty, level of market demand and supply.

Quote from: 9thsky on May 08, 2021, 02:06:33 PM

Obviously, no one knows for certain when it would happened, but has there been a consistent "pattern" lately? When prices have gone down, have you known to a reasonable degree than they would bounce back up? How?

We can tell when it will happen but the market will bounce back up when it reaches the resistance level though we seem to currently be in altcoin season.

Distinctin

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Quote from: ashmodeus on May 13, 2021, 02:54:03 AM

well , its not pure gamble , the sentiment like policy etc also contributes to the price of btc or altcoin , even though mostly for shitcoin, its just go high for no reason. from now on , almost every week we got pumped and dumped heavly , as long u confident , u still win on this bull season.

You could win if you have patience.
Many were get mad on the market because they fail to get their target price, they even send more complaints about their losses but they didn't find out that it was their fault.
Buy low and sell high but sometimes it happens that it changes to Buy low and sell Low.

People must have to understand how volatility works. It is natural to see that the market moves up and down, and there is no way to tell exactly what will happen next. If we could say that this just like a gamble, life is a gamble anyway, the same as investing.

tvplus006

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Quote from: jinxing on May 13, 2021, 04:45:39 PM

sometimes analysis can approach accuracy in reading market price movements, but as we know in a matter of seconds the predictions we believe can change drastically because they are confused by whales who are able to pump and dump at any time

If the holder, who has thousands of bitcoins in his account, decides that he urgently needs a yacht and he sells BTC at the market price, this will entail a dump of bitcoin, and with it the dump of the entire market. So very often, such spontaneous decisions to sell BTC have nothing to do with politics or any other news.

jinxing

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Quote from: ashmodeus on May 13, 2021, 02:54:03 AM

well , its not pure gamble , the sentiment like policy etc also contributes to the price of btc or altcoin , even though mostly for shitcoin, its just go high for no reason. from now on , almost every week we got pumped and dumped heavly , as long u confident , u still win on this bull season.

sometimes analysis can approach accuracy in reading market price movements, but as we know in a matter of seconds the predictions we believe can change drastically because they are confused by whales who are able to pump and dump at any time

Topic: How much can you predict this sh*t?! Or is it pure gamble? (Read 725 times)