How much can you predict this sh*t?! Or is it pure gamble? - page 2.

FanEagle

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Quote from: 9thsky on May 08, 2021, 02:06:33 PM

From 50/50 (it could swing either way and you can have zero knowledge on which way it'll swing), to %1-100 being able to know before hand, how much can you know?

What causes prices to go up? What causes them to go down? Obviously, no one knows for certain when it would happened, but has there been a consistent "pattern" lately? When prices have gone down, have you known to a reasonable degree than they would bounce back up? How?

No one can really say, it's just like a gamble, though I wouldn't call it a gamble lol, they are two different things. But same way that you will have to do some research on bets and know which one team is likely to win or lose or what's likely to be the score, that's similar to what you're doing in technical analysis. In technical analysis, you don't really get the actual price of what the asset is going to be in the near future, it's just like you're guessing what it's going to be by using some patterns that shows you what's likely to be the next outcome.

So it's just like a 50/50 thing, and you have to go by that and knowing very well that this may happen, and if not, then it's going to be the other. And that's just how it's meant to be, because I can't imagine what it would be like if everyone is hundred percent certain of what is going to be the next move in the market, just can't imagine that.

thesmallgod

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There is high probability that top coin will recover after some drop especially now during the bull run. From my experience, price go down often during the weekend and also the trading volume go down also. However, the price pickup back during the week. This is not always the case but it happen most often

ashmodeus

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well , its not pure gamble , the sentiment like policy etc also contributes to the price of btc or altcoin , even though mostly for shitcoin, its just go high for no reason. from now on , almost every week we got pumped and dumped heavly , as long u confident , u still win on this bull season.

beerlover

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Quote from: santiPOGI on May 12, 2021, 09:30:56 PM

Now if the price value in the market is getting high or low it is simply because there are whales behind to control the
market, this is the main reason for the movement of the price for sure anyway.

I cannot agree or accept your point. Market is moved by whales but not all the times. When individuals like you and me are trading in same direction, we will make impact like whales and I do believe these days, this kind of market movements are happening time to time, by considering the adoption level of bitcoins globally.

Quote from: iv4n on May 12, 2021, 11:59:33 PM

It's not a pure gamble if you are trading with well-known coins, but if you trading with some shitcoins, where most coins are pump and dump schemes then it is pure gambling!

Yeah reputed coins and technical parts are perfect combination to make easy profits from crypto markets and when we are trading with the help of technical and fundamental analysis then trading is becoming a scientific approach and definitely not a gamble.

iv4n

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Quote from: Johnyz on May 12, 2021, 05:34:14 PM

Quote from: iamsange on May 10, 2021, 02:40:29 PM

Honestly, in trading i'm pure gamble. I have zero experience in analysis and sometimes only ask my friend what coin that he bought or maybe do future trading in which coin. Coins that i bought myself usually only BTC, ETH, or BNB which i will hold for longer time and sell when get a little profit.

That's too risky especially in trading, we should have our own analysis to fully understand the market and this makes you more profitable.
In terms of predicting the market price, it is still not sure even if you do your analysis because cryptomarket is very volatile and if you're going to predict the price of shitcoins, that's pure gambling because no one predicted that price accurately, its about hype for every shitcoins, they are just scalpers for sure.

I guess we can use any analysis, based on many factors, and that can give us an idea about where the price is heading! But that will not work all the time, simply new players and whales can disturb the market and push the price in the way they like, and that can be different from our plans! So it's not like there's some strategy or analysis that can help all the time, sometimes you simply need to rely on your intuition and do what you think it's the best! It's not a pure gamble if you are trading with well-known coins, but if you trading with some shitcoins, where most coins are pump and dump schemes then it is pure gambling!

santiPOGI

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Quote from: 9thsky on May 08, 2021, 02:06:33 PM

From 50/50 (it could swing either way and you can have zero knowledge on which way it'll swing), to %1-100 being able to know before hand, how much can you know?

What causes prices to go up? What causes them to go down? Obviously, no one knows for certain when it would happened, but has there been a consistent "pattern" lately? When prices have gone down, have you known to a reasonable degree than they would bounce back up? How?

The market was too unpredictable and very difficult to determine what could be the price of the coin we hold it now.
Now if the price value in the market is getting high or low it is simply because there are whales behind to control the
market, this is the main reason for the movement of the price for sure anyway.

Johnyz

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Quote from: iamsange on May 10, 2021, 02:40:29 PM

Honestly, in trading i'm pure gamble. I have zero experience in analysis and sometimes only ask my friend what coin that he bought or maybe do future trading in which coin. Coins that i bought myself usually only BTC, ETH, or BNB which i will hold for longer time and sell when get a little profit.

That's too risky especially in trading, we should have our own analysis to fully understand the market and this makes you more profitable.
In terms of predicting the market price, it is still not sure even if you do your analysis because cryptomarket is very volatile and if you're going to predict the price of shitcoins, that's pure gambling because no one predicted that price accurately, its about hype for every shitcoins, they are just scalpers for sure.

Questat

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Quote from: wiss19 on May 12, 2021, 03:54:15 PM

Quote from: 9thsky on May 08, 2021, 02:06:33 PM

From 50/50 (it could swing either way and you can have zero knowledge on which way it'll swing), to %1-100 being able to know before hand, how much can you know?

It depends on the market news because when Tesla purchased a big chunk of Bitcoins, for example, it was obvious the price of Bitcoins will rise and it did by some decent value.

But, when fake news is out and there are rumors about something then it is hard to distinguish and movement can be different from what we expected. At the same time, if you are skilled then you can easily identify market direction accurately. Hence, predicting market trend is completely different from gambling. So, do not get confused yourself.

Even you have exemplary skills you can never know the market direction. You can simply make a prediction but not we can say that it is correct. I have to praise you or to anyone of he can do that because ever since there's no one.
Jut to believe that the market will remain decentralized and unpredictable. Although there is such market manipulation made by whales still not a thing that could change.

wiss19

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Quote from: 9thsky on May 08, 2021, 02:06:33 PM

From 50/50 (it could swing either way and you can have zero knowledge on which way it'll swing), to %1-100 being able to know before hand, how much can you know?

It depends on the market news because when Tesla purchased a big chunk of Bitcoins, for example, it was obvious the price of Bitcoins will rise and it did by some decent value.

But, when fake news is out and there are rumors about something then it is hard to distinguish and movement can be different from what we expected. At the same time, if you are skilled then you can easily identify market direction accurately. Hence, predicting market trend is completely different from gambling. So, do not get confused yourself.

justdimin

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Quote from: 9thsky on May 08, 2021, 02:06:33 PM

What causes prices to go up? What causes them to go down? Obviously, no one knows for certain when it would happened, but has there been a consistent "pattern" lately? When prices have gone down, have you known to a reasonable degree than they would bounce back up? How?

This much I can answer for you. Price goes up when the demand for Bitcoin increases in the market or there are more investors in the market because of moves like Paypal allowing the purchase of bitcoins. The price drops when the demand decreases while the supply is increasing which is rare actually because the bitcoins are limited and supply is always going to shrink slowly but surely.

The only reason BTC might ever fall off would be is some other coin matches and surpasses Bitcoin in terms of popularity and use cases.

imstillthebest

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Quote from: 9thsky on May 08, 2021, 02:06:33 PM

From 50/50 (it could swing either way and you can have zero knowledge on which way it'll swing), to %1-100 being able to know before hand, how much can you know?

if you have more learning on how the market moves you can predict it more accurately . This is not pure gambling where all works randomly

Quote

What causes prices to go up? What causes them to go down? Obviously, no one knows for certain when it would happened, but has there been a consistent "pattern" lately? When prices have gone down, have you known to a reasonable degree than they would bounce back up? How?

Price go up when someone buys and price goes down when someone's sells .
Both works effectively if the action is done in large volumes . you will know if your one of it that sells or buy and you can also know if you watch and read news , social media and other sources but make sure they are legit because false information will not move the price in a right direction .
That's the pattern that all are following until now

bitgolden

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Quote from: seramania on May 12, 2021, 02:22:06 AM

for the problem of the pattern of rising or falling prices I think this is a classic questionable thing. What caused it? I think this is a question whose answer is analysis. by doing analysis and research we can find out what the main factors are the decline and increase.

The core reasons for rise and fall of the market is supply and demand. But having information on supply and demand alone will not make a person to predict the direction of market easily. This is the reason, we are going for technical and fundamental analysis. So, it is still predictable rise and fall hence it cannot be gambling unlike OP mentioning.

Quote from: seramania on May 12, 2021, 02:22:06 AM

how do you analyze it? here everyone has their own method of analysis, we cannot equate people's answers here because there are different methods. so I think this method is workable

Through mathematical formula. Yeah, every technical analysis is based on maths hence we can rely on them. A scientific approach may not fail for no reasons hence all analyzing methods are working one always.

geegaw

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Quote from: danherbias07 on May 11, 2021, 06:09:12 AM

It's not 100% a gamble. You use history, technical analysis, and a possible movement due to people hyping a coin.
When you start considering all of that, you lessen the risk of losing in short or long runs. It's difficult, but it's better than just blindly buying and selling right?
Chances of you winning the trade gets higher and it's more satisfying if you make profits. Lose some and learn from the mistakes you've done. Win and identify how you did it then savor the moments.

Indeed, pure gambling would not be an exact definition as the analytical tools each have their own contributions, they are not a random occurrence, they are the values of experience accumulation, helping users to link images of the past and perceive the future. This prediction cannot be one hundred percent accurate or represent the whole picture of the market, it is just a piece of the puzzle for us to see the layout, following the right layouts and plans will have a clearer view of the future picture and vice versa, blind perception and lack of connection will make us turn mind games into gambling

seramania

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for the problem of the pattern of rising or falling prices I think this is a classic questionable thing. What caused it? I think this is a question whose answer is analysis. by doing analysis and research we can find out what the main factors are the decline and increase.
well, then how do you analyze it? here everyone has their own method of analysis, we cannot equate people's answers here because there are different methods. so I think this method is workable

tygeade

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Quote from: 9thsky on May 08, 2021, 02:06:33 PM

What causes prices to go up? What causes them to go down? Obviously, no one knows for certain when it would happened, but has there been a consistent "pattern" lately? When prices have gone down, have you known to a reasonable degree than they would bounce back up? How?

Not always bouncing back because still lower to low is possible. So, there cannot be anything in pre-assumed way. But, you need to make use of technical things to predict market rather than going for assuming anything by your own. If you are making use of your intuition power to predict the turning point of markets then also you got only half chances to hit what you want .

Predicting market direction will be possible only through kind of mathematical process. There are different kinds of strategies are available to predict market directions still there will be no guarantee for effective predictions of market direction because it is having lots of factor to influence it.

CaVO32

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Quote from: blckhawk on May 11, 2021, 08:30:16 AM

Quote from: cyriljundos on May 10, 2021, 08:54:14 PM

it is hard to say that in trading it is not 100% that all of your prediction is accurate but if you know how to analyze and reading candlestick you have high percentage in gaining income.yes you gamble in that coin but it is part of trading, not all the time you are gaining sometimes you lose and it is normal for traders and investors.

You nailed it. Even if you have you TA or know to analyze and read the market chart this will not guarantee a 100% outcome because sometimes there are few sudden factors that could affect the movement of a particular coin. But with the help of analysis, it mitigates the risk of losing your trades. It would be only a gamble if we trade without taking any analysis. Loss is just normal, it is part of trading, not all the time you will have a fruitful outcome and you should know it.

TA knowledge is not sufficient in crypto market, it may help you understand what's going on but when it comes to specific alts, they behave differently and you need to consider some factors like development progress, capability of the dev team, community support, trading volume and others. And also, if you are following a specific project, you need to subscribe their social media channels because you will get a hint on what may possibly happen because they will give some insights on what's going on. I found out that most projects here are more active in socmed than in their respective ANN threads.

blckhawk

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Quote from: cyriljundos on May 10, 2021, 08:54:14 PM

it is hard to say that in trading it is not 100% that all of your prediction is accurate but if you know how to analyze and reading candlestick you have high percentage in gaining income.yes you gamble in that coin but it is part of trading, not all the time you are gaining sometimes you lose and it is normal for traders and investors.

You nailed it. Even if you have you TA or know to analyze and read the market chart this will not guarantee a 100% outcome because sometimes there are few sudden factors that could affect the movement of a particular coin. But with the help of analysis, it mitigates the risk of losing your trades. It would be only a gamble if we trade without taking any analysis. Loss is just normal, it is part of trading, not all the time you will have a fruitful outcome and you should know it.

udidrone

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Quote from: 9thsky on May 08, 2021, 02:06:33 PM

From 50/50 (it could swing either way and you can have zero knowledge on which way it'll swing), to %1-100 being able to know before hand, how much can you know?

What causes prices to go up? What causes them to go down? Obviously, no one knows for certain when it would happened, but has there been a consistent "pattern" lately? When prices have gone down, have you known to a reasonable degree than they would bounce back up? How?

At past my pattern only buy above buy wall, sometimes it is work. But if keep dump i set order again above another buy wall in less price. I think that is my trading way and although not much analysis honestly but i don't think that i gambling with it.

leea-1334

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Quote from: cyriljundos on May 10, 2021, 08:54:14 PM

it is hard to say that in trading it is not 100% that all of your prediction is accurate but if you know how to analyze and reading candlestick you have high percentage in gaining income.yes you gamble in that coin but it is part of trading, not all the time you are gaining sometimes you lose and it is normal for traders and investors.

That is not news. Whoever needs to be told they will not get all their predictions right, are surely in the wrong sector!

Candlestick analysis? High percentage to gain income? Which world did you come teleport out from? This is crypto:) People make money doing shitty TAs in bullruns and lose doing fantastic TAs in bear markets;)

danherbias07

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It's not 100% a gamble. You use history, technical analysis, and a possible movement due to people hyping a coin.
When you start considering all of that, you lessen the risk of losing in short or long runs. It's difficult, but it's better than just blindly buying and selling right?
Chances of you winning the trade gets higher and it's more satisfying if you make profits. Lose some and learn from the mistakes you've done. Win and identify how you did it then savor the moments.

Topic: How much can you predict this sh*t?! Or is it pure gamble? - page 2. (Read 725 times)