Topic: How much do you think 1 Bitcoin will be worth in 2020? - page 22. (Read 58237 times)

I think it is quite impossible to predict bitcoin prices for such a long time because if you see the history of bitcoin prices, in last five years it went from few cents to 1000+ dollars and again it came back to couple of hundred dollars. It shows that prices can be either 1000+ or it can be even single digit also so it is very difficult to predict bitcoin prices.

Let's not forget that the vast majority (about 90% I believe) of the bitcoins in existence are owned by only a few people. So as the halvings occur, the adoption rate continues to increase and an industry built on top of Bitcoin grows, the price will have a strong upward push. I think it will only be then that some of these 90% will begin to be released into circulation.

I think the interesting question is, what will happen when the large scale miners who need to sell bitcoins to run their business and are not getting many due to halvings whilst the 90% are steadily selling their stash?

Miners may need to re-evaluate their business model and diversify to stay alive.

2020 - $900-$1000

I'd guess close to worthless, something bigger and better might come along in five years!

I agree with the premise that it would be either close to a zero or a large number IF 21 mil coins remain.
Assigning certain values to probability of success might be premature, however, although personally I would like this scenario (80% chance).
My greater concern is for a slow subversion of the underlying bitcoin software according to the whims of VCs, payment processors, etc.
Bitcoin 10 years from now could look nothing like the idealistic version that Satoshi put forward initially.

I think this is one of the best posts in this thread. If you think about it it really can go to 0 or near zero or somewhere very high (by today means). I've heard from senior members zero valuation visions which will be unfortunate but then saying we will be at 200 or 1000 USD is really ridiculous and really, really stupid, after two halvings I can't see anything less than 30k USD (after spike and drop) or zero/near zero as said already. I think 300k is not completely unlikely, saying it will be more than 1M is little bit far fetched for me (maybe for very short period of time.).

To sum it up I would say zero or somewhere between 30k and 300k.

For zero or near zero I would say there is about 20 % chance (for whatever technical or wide panic reason), with 80 % chance I would go for the more optimistic range.

All this valuations take into account today's purchasing power parity - if by 2020 a loaf of bread costs 200 USD for whatever reason or more then adjust it appropriately (now it shows between 1 and 3 USD in most civilized countries: http://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/country_price_rankings?itemId=9)

If I go according to options in the poll, then 1000$ seems realistic.

Maybe I was being a drama queen. Time will tell. Let's go for 2024 instead.

From listening to the VCs, many of them have quite a lengthy time frame of a decade or so but that's irrelevant if adoption is still hopelessly flat or actively falling before their time frame runs out.  

The world is moving ever faster and I'd say gaining proper traction is a one shot deal for Bitcoin, not the technology it gave birth to.

It's not a passive thing waiting to be unearthed and repackaged some time in the future. It requires a lot of ongoing maintenance, commitment and effort from a lot of people to keep it ticking over and growing, and its potential future users have to see such toil taking place to develop the faith that it needs.

If we guess where the infrastructure should or could be in 2020 - shit exchanges gone forever, scalability dealt with, legal and regulatory grey areas cleared up, foolproof solutions for usage - and that doesn't look like it'll ever foster what it's intended to which is a decently-sized closed loop economy and lots of fiat interaction, then the future is looking dicey.

Miners will keep on trucking but they're backroom boys that the public is barely aware of. If the public faces that make it all usable such as the present and future Bitpays, Coinbases and exchanges eventually throw in the towel then it's not looking good and at present they're placing just as much speculative faith on the whole thing as anyone in this forum.

If it was effectively discarded en masse I don't think a resurrection would ever be on the cards. I think there's a relatively narrow window for it to take off and if it doesn't then no one will care other than those who tried to make it happen. It's a million miles away from being 'too big to fail'.

Well, in a sense yes.  Hyper-inflation led to the rise of the Nazi party, so yes it would be geopolitically very dangerous.  But for bitcoin holders, it could prove very profitable since Bitcoin is a deflationary asset.

agreed, if price didnt rise to at least 800 in 2020. i think a lot of hashing power will dropped because it doesnt cover the electricity and 51% attack would be possible (and might be more profitable)

I normally agree with everything you said, gentlemand, and I agree with the reasoning in the post. What I am not sure of, is the timeline. Assuming bitcoin doesn't take off (price or in any other way), how long do you think bitcoin will last before the bigger players start to lose interest and bitcoin really starts to "die"?

Another year? 3 years? 5 years? 10 years? 20 years? I personally think it would be between 5-10 years, so that if nothing much happens, either really good or really bad, I think bitcoin may still be here in 2020, but probably not too long after that.

the price today is about 230, the electricity cost (@ 9cent) is 180 to create 1 btc
next halving within 1 year, i predict that price around 400 with electricity cost is about 360 to create 1 btc

so i think 2020 price should be about 800 - 1000 usd.

is very hard to make a predictions especially long term prediction. but I think bitcoin's value will reach more than $ 2000 in 2020

Well in 2020 1 BTC will be worth of 100000 $.This I am saying because of the fast and steady adoption which we saw this year.This process will be even much more faster in coming years.

or nothing.. or 100.000 and probably 1milj .. due to hyperinflation 

Ahh, I see the pattern: ~$2,000 ended up being ~$200. So we just drop a zero off of what the most popular guess was. So that means in 2020 the price will be $1,000.

This poll was asked of the btctalk followers which are not entirely an non-committed group, hence the results might be skewed and have basically little predictive value.
In Feb 2014 when bitcoin was $800-900, a similar question was asked: "what would be bitcoin price in a year". The average was ~$2000, but in reality it became ~$220.

The poll is still pointing out to $10.000 being the most likely, enough for me to score some extra BTC now when it's low 
Sure it may go a bit lower but i'm also pretty sure it's gonna go to €300 or more again within a year and pherhaps hit magical numbers when it gets more widely accepted.

One cent.

Adding two zeros to the price of Bitcoin is just an imagination and that to within a span of 4 years, it takes centuries for currencies to get adopted and get stable .

from 2010 to today bitcoin rised x250, so it's not that far but this does not eman that it is not a significant time frame, there is the big possibility of a good increase that can adds two zeroes