How much do you think 1 Bitcoin will be worth in 2020? - page 24.

futureofbitcoin

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Merit: 250

Quote from: gentlemand on August 14, 2015, 11:45:32 AM

Quote from: coinableS on August 12, 2015, 09:48:32 PM

Doesn't wisdom of the crowd add up all the results and then get the average guess, instead of the most popular guess?

So adding up all the results I am getting: 18,147,032
Divide 152 votes
= $119,388.36

That can't be right... or can it?

I think this particular crowd might just be the slightest bit biased. Unless they've all personally pledged to pay $100,000 for 0.85 or so BTC in which case I applaud them.

If you remove the bottom 25% and top 25% and average the middle 50%, or if you take a median, I think it could be pretty accurate.

rjclarke2000

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The way things are going between $200-$400 wouldn't be too surprising. (Only saying this as it's been boring for so long.)

kenbytes

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We could be at $10,000 per bitcoin or even more but my guess is $2500 & to be honest I'd be very satisfied even if it's that.

ajareselde

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Activity: 1722

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Satoshi is rolling in his grave. #bitcoin

Quote from: coinableS on August 12, 2015, 09:48:32 PM

Doesn't wisdom of the crowd add up all the results and then get the average guess, instead of the most popular guess?

So adding up all the results I am getting: 18,147,032
Divide 152 votes
= $119,388.36

That can't be right... or can it?

Average "wisdom" of a crowd is not something that should be taken seriously, it's more of a laughing matter.
Since bitcoin highly depends up on related progress and speculative news, either way you turn this around , it will still be a high gamble.
One thing i know for sure; there's a lot of money to be made on bitcoin, and that money cant be made if bitcoin is allowed to fail.

cheers

Andy4.4

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Activity: 42

Merit: 0

Quote from: coinableS on August 12, 2015, 09:48:32 PM

Quote from: Biodom on August 12, 2015, 09:29:24 PM

I am quite curious about this poll.
Reason: when there was a poll in Feb 2014 re bitcoin price in a year, the average of all answers was $2000, but in reality, it was ~$220 in Feb of 2015.
So, the wisdom of the crowds was totally wrong, however, maybe the questions were asked among bitcoin aficionados and hence, unreliable (as predictors).

$10K seems to be a sweet spot for the pole (and i voted for it as well), but i wonder if we are simply biased.
If the wisdom of the crowds is nonsense, then some models that people are proposing to make predictions about a future using blockchains are bogus as well.
I think that the accurate number would have been if you asked 1000-2000 average Joe/Janes the same question, but not here.
Just my 2sat.

Doesn't wisdom of the crowd add up all the results and then get the average guess, instead of the most popular guess?

So adding up all the results I am getting: 18,147,032
Divide 152 votes
= $119,388.36

That can't be right... or can it?

holy shit!!! Rofl
Seriously!!! This cannot be for 2020,but yes in future there can be a Time when this happens.
But 2020 is very early for that much price.
I think even $1000 per Bitcoin is hell of an investment.

gentlemand

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Welt Am Draht

Quote from: coinableS on August 12, 2015, 09:48:32 PM

Doesn't wisdom of the crowd add up all the results and then get the average guess, instead of the most popular guess?

So adding up all the results I am getting: 18,147,032
Divide 152 votes
= $119,388.36

That can't be right... or can it?

I think this particular crowd might just be the slightest bit biased. Unless they've all personally pledged to pay $100,000 for 0.85 or so BTC in which case I applaud them.

Pk880058

sr. member

Activity: 266

Merit: 250

Quote from: coinableS on August 12, 2015, 09:48:32 PM

Quote from: Biodom on August 12, 2015, 09:29:24 PM

I am quite curious about this poll.
Reason: when there was a poll in Feb 2014 re bitcoin price in a year, the average of all answers was $2000, but in reality, it was ~$220 in Feb of 2015.
So, the wisdom of the crowds was totally wrong, however, maybe the questions were asked among bitcoin aficionados and hence, unreliable (as predictors).

$10K seems to be a sweet spot for the pole (and i voted for it as well), but i wonder if we are simply biased.
If the wisdom of the crowds is nonsense, then some models that people are proposing to make predictions about a future using blockchains are bogus as well.
I think that the accurate number would have been if you asked 1000-2000 average Joe/Janes the same question, but not here.
Just my 2sat.

Doesn't wisdom of the crowd add up all the results and then get the average guess, instead of the most popular guess?

So adding up all the results I am getting: 18,147,032
Divide 152 votes
= $119,388.36

That can't be right... or can it?

Good use of mind.
Yes It is right.
In public, there are many persons which devaluate the prices an some of them overvalue the prices and taking average of the value gives us the appropriate prices.

coinableS

legendary

Activity: 1442

Merit: 1186

Quote from: Biodom on August 12, 2015, 09:29:24 PM

I am quite curious about this poll.
Reason: when there was a poll in Feb 2014 re bitcoin price in a year, the average of all answers was $2000, but in reality, it was ~$220 in Feb of 2015.
So, the wisdom of the crowds was totally wrong, however, maybe the questions were asked among bitcoin aficionados and hence, unreliable (as predictors).

$10K seems to be a sweet spot for the pole (and i voted for it as well), but i wonder if we are simply biased.
If the wisdom of the crowds is nonsense, then some models that people are proposing to make predictions about a future using blockchains are bogus as well.
I think that the accurate number would have been if you asked 1000-2000 average Joe/Janes the same question, but not here.
Just my 2sat.

Doesn't wisdom of the crowd add up all the results and then get the average guess, instead of the most popular guess?

So adding up all the results I am getting: 18,147,032
Divide 152 votes
= $119,388.36

That can't be right... or can it?

Spider-Carnage

newbie

Activity: 37

Merit: 0

Everyone here also needs to keep in mind that we're talking of a 365 day window of time. Remember, there was a time in 2014 when bitcoin were going at $900. There was a time that same year that they were going at about $350. So the answers that are giving a range are the most accurate, I guess. I think in 2020, we'll see prices between $1400 and $3700 per BTC. There will be a halving, either that year or on its way, on early 2021. It's probable that the price has (or will have) large fluctuations on halving years.

Biodom

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Activity: 3892

Merit: 4331

I am quite curious about this poll.
Reason: when there was a poll in Feb 2014 re bitcoin price in a year, the average of all answers was $2000, but in reality, it was ~$220 in Feb of 2015.
So, the wisdom of the crowds was totally wrong, however, maybe the questions were asked among bitcoin aficionados and hence, unreliable (as predictors).

$10K seems to be a sweet spot for the pole (and i voted for it as well), but i wonder if we are simply biased.
If the wisdom of the crowds is nonsense, then some models that people are proposing to make predictions about a future using blockchains are bogus as well.
I think that the accurate number would have been if you asked 1000-2000 average Joe/Janes the same question, but not here.
Just my 2sat.

Brewins

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Activity: 1120

Merit: 1000

Quote from: AtheistAKASaneBrain on August 11, 2015, 04:30:56 AM

We should do some sort of fun bet, as if, if by 2020 Bitcoin is 5 figures, I will do a youtube video naked holding a vodka bottle dancing next to Bitcoinwisdom.com to any song of your choice, or something along the lines. (Not saying I would do that, is just an idea lol. If someone wants to do it it would go viral im pretty sure)

If price is in 5 figures I surely won't be around anymore, will be too busy deciding how can I spend such amount of money before I die

MasterYii

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Quote from: Anastazy.Jaskulski on August 11, 2015, 07:41:25 AM

I think a hundred bucks and it will be as accepted as other currencies. Grin

I think $100 for 1 btc? its absurd to see that price esp when the volume of avaiable coins are limited based on the hard code.

I know we didnt hit 21 mill yet, but we are super close getting there since we are at 14 mill.

AtheistAKASaneBrain

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Activity: 770

Merit: 509

Quote from: ashfaq on August 11, 2015, 04:35:50 AM

Quote from: AtheistAKASaneBrain on August 11, 2015, 04:30:56 AM

We should do some sort of fun bet, as if, if by 2020 Bitcoin is 5 figures, I will do a youtube video naked holding a vodka bottle dancing next to Bitcoinwisdom.com to any song of your choice, or something along the lines. (Not saying I would do that, is just an idea lol. If someone wants to do it it would go viral im pretty sure)

well if some one got wrong payment of 1000 BTC then prollly he would do it ...

If you think we need 1000 then that's depressing. I will probably never be able to stack triple figures so I need it to at least give me a million dollars at something realistic like 30 BTC. Anything else is bullshit.

malzahar

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Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Quote from: ridery99 on August 11, 2015, 02:43:20 PM

$2

no way lol.

youre def being delusional, unless we had a serious technical problem with bitcoin. Like how we have a huge debate with having bigger blocks which would effect the transaction times for us, or something huge that effects this scenario then maybe.

But even then you would see a gradual decline and $2 is absurd.

ridery99

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Activity: 616

Merit: 500

$2

trinaldao

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Activity: 1218

Merit: 1007

Post your ann & bounty just contact me

$100   - 10 (6.6%)
$1.000   - 25 (16.6%)
$10.000   - 70 (46.4%)
$100.000   - 24 (15.9%)
$1.000.000   - 14 (9.3%)
$0   - 3 (2%)
$1   - 2 (1.3%)
$10   - 3 (2%)
Total Voters: 151

okey 46.4% have positive thinking about bitcoin

i think price will be up to 10.000$ Grin

Anastazy.Jaskulski

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Activity: 166

Merit: 100

Dude

I think a hundred bucks and it will be as accepted as other currencies. Grin

ashfaq

full member

Activity: 154

Merit: 100

Quote from: AtheistAKASaneBrain on August 11, 2015, 04:30:56 AM

We should do some sort of fun bet, as if, if by 2020 Bitcoin is 5 figures, I will do a youtube video naked holding a vodka bottle dancing next to Bitcoinwisdom.com to any song of your choice, or something along the lines. (Not saying I would do that, is just an idea lol. If someone wants to do it it would go viral im pretty sure)

well if some one got wrong payment of 1000 BTC then prollly he would do it ...

AtheistAKASaneBrain

hero member

Activity: 770

Merit: 509

We should do some sort of fun bet, as if, if by 2020 Bitcoin is 5 figures, I will do a youtube video naked holding a vodka bottle dancing next to Bitcoinwisdom.com to any song of your choice, or something along the lines. (Not saying I would do that, is just an idea lol. If someone wants to do it it would go viral im pretty sure)

crazy-pilot

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SmartFi - EARN, LEND & TRADE

1000-5000 would be my guess. But there is nothing to really go on.

Topic: How much do you think 1 Bitcoin will be worth in 2020? - page 24. (Read 58237 times)