Topic: How safe is it to invest in just-dice - page 5. (Read 15252 times)

How difficult is it to move 10's of BTC into CLAM and then back to BTC at the moment?

Well, we can see the average amount wagered per day and guess that it will be similar going forward.

I made an account on December 12th and invested some coins in it.

Here's a record of how that investment grew each week, and the cumulative growth:

Dec 12 2014     0.00%   100.00%
Dec 15 2014     3.64%   103.64%
Dec 22 2014     5.02%   108.85%
Dec 29 2014     2.09%   111.13%

Jan  2 2015     5.94%   117.73%

So I've seen 17.73% growth in 3 or 4 weeks. That is from staking and play combined.

Of course there's no guarantee that the same happens in any other 4 weeks. It's quite possible even to have a losing month.

It's true. Running a crowd-funded dice site gets the owner control of a whole load of (other people's) coins very quickly. It usually takes quite a while for the site to make a profit, and even longer for the site's owner to earn very much in the way of commission. But if they "play against the investors" by using the server seeds, or just run off with the coins, they make a lot of coins very quickly, and so obviously that happens a lot.

I ran Just-Dice with Bitcoins for a year with a bankroll over 60,000 BTC (worth over $50 million at one point) and didn't feel any temptation to steal anything. Since I showed I was able to be trusted with that amount of value, most people don't have too much worry about trusting me with the relatively tiny value of the CLAM site. The whole bankroll there is worth around $300k at the moment - a small fraction of the BTC site's value.


I can think of lots of reasons (good and bad) that might make it worth accepting a crowd-sourced bankroll:

1) BIGGER BETS: By allowing others to take part in the bankroll you are able to afford to offer bigger maximum bets which may attract more players.

2) LESS RISK: I can make risk-free coins by taking a commission on site profits. The "investors" risk their coins, and I take a cut of any profits they make.

3) NEW MARKET: Offering an attractive "investment" attracts people to the site who wouldn't usually consider visiting a gambling site. They come to invest, but end up playing.

4) GIVE BACK: Why not share the profits with others?

5) EASY MONEY: Collect massive bankroll from suckers then steal it.


Not at the moment. I invested in both dicebitco.in and dice.ninja for a while, but managed to withdraw before they went bad in both cases. Those experiences put me off the idea of trusting people.

There is no average. Totally depends on how many people play on site and lose.
You might lose money as well. Anything can happen.

Ok Dooglus, maybe that was a bit of an unfairly aimed comment, but generally investing in crypto gambling sites hasn't been the greatest investment.
I am sure that you are doing things right, but I have never really understood why if these sites make profit, they are so keen to "share" the profit with everyone.  As I have often said, at some point the amount invested could be weighed up against the future profits of the site by an unscrupulous owner, and the they can decide that it isn't worth it anymore and run off with the invested money. 

Again, I am not saying that you will do that, but there have been examples of that happening in the past.

Do you invest in any other dice sites that aren't directly under your control?

if invest 0.1 for one month!!

how much profit i get !! ??
i m asking average

It's possible that someone will get lucky and stay lucky long enough to take all the site profits. It has happened before. But there is a 1% house edge which should mean the site is profitable in the long term. Here's a chart showing the actual site profit (in black) and the 1% expected site profit (in green) for the first month or so that it has been running with CLAMs:



Note how the black line goes up and down pretty much at random, but also tends to follow the shape of the green line.

On top of this, investors also get the rewards from staking the site's bankroll. So far that amounts to 25k CLAM - more than the profit from losing bets.


I would be interested to hear the reasoning that landed you at that conclusion.

When you bet there's a 1% edge against you. When you invest, the edge is in your favour and you get the staking rewards too, making the edge greater than 2%.

Slow down and read. The didn't raise their bet to an amount that is shown. When they win, their profit is high. When they lose, their loss is low. The high winning profit is shown. The low losing loss isn't. This happens when flat betting. No need to magically raise your stake for winning bets.

Do you understand now?

I'm not saying your cheating or scamming of any sorts. I just find it hard to believe that everytime they won they coincidentally raised the bet to a amount that is shown in chat. I mean what's the odds of them winning at 14% AND INCREASING THEIR BET to a amount that can be seen in chat at the exact same time? Man those odds are beyond astronomical.  What your saying is they bet low and it didn't show up in the chat until they increased their bet to "x" amount which could be seen everytime and them winning. I mean the odds of all of this coming together at the same time, and everytime is beyond astronomical.  I'm talking new species out of the mud astronomical. Extremely hard to believe when the odds are over 100 trillion to 1, and it happening over 30 times. Those odds in itself are astonishing.

I will be betting my CLAM, but I still wouldn't invest them, it seems more dangerous than betting them on a long priced outsider.

Safeness: ERR_TOO_HIGH

very interesting Might have to invest here... After I get my head around CLAM

Yeah, because there's many people who just redeem the CLAM and exchange it to BTC in no time, made the the prices keep going down.

Well, about investing, I can't tell how safe is it. Who knows someone gonna win BIG later? You can't predict people's luck and future of course

The biggest risk is the clam market going down imo.

Anithing can happen. Investing in anythnig related to cryptocurrencies can be considered very risky.

As I told you in the JD chat, this is a frequently asked question.

Here's the answer, from the FAQ tab:



Edit: these are first two bets from your screenshot:



and here's a list of the bets that happened between these two, that didn't show up because of the threshold:

+----------+-------+--------+---------------------+-------------+
| betid    | stake | chance | date                | profit      |
+----------+-------+--------+---------------------+-------------+
| 12650757 |     6 |     14 | 2015-01-01 19:17:14 | 36.42857142 |
| 12650763 |     6 |     14 | 2015-01-01 19:17:15 |          -6 |
| 12650775 |     6 |     14 | 2015-01-01 19:17:18 |          -6 |
| 12650804 |  0.01 |     14 | 2015-01-01 19:17:21 |       -0.01 |
| 12650812 |  0.01 |     14 | 2015-01-01 19:17:22 |       -0.01 |
| 12650820 |  0.01 |     14 | 2015-01-01 19:17:23 |       -0.01 |
| 12650830 |  0.01 |     14 | 2015-01-01 19:17:24 |  0.06071428 |
| 12650838 |  0.01 |     14 | 2015-01-01 19:17:25 |       -0.01 |
| 12650846 |  0.01 |     14 | 2015-01-01 19:17:26 |       -0.01 |
| 12650852 |  0.01 |     14 | 2015-01-01 19:17:26 |       -0.01 |
| 12650857 |  0.01 |     14 | 2015-01-01 19:17:27 |       -0.01 |
| 12650867 |  0.01 |     14 | 2015-01-01 19:17:27 |       -0.01 |
| 12650871 |  0.01 |     14 | 2015-01-01 19:17:28 |       -0.01 |
| 12650879 |  0.01 |     14 | 2015-01-01 19:17:29 |       -0.01 |
| 12650887 |  0.01 |     14 | 2015-01-01 19:17:30 |       -0.01 |
| 12650896 |  0.01 |     14 | 2015-01-01 19:17:31 |       -0.01 |
| 12650922 |     3 |     14 | 2015-01-01 19:17:34 |          -3 |
| 12650931 |     3 |     14 | 2015-01-01 19:17:35 | 18.21428571 |
+----------+-------+--------+---------------------+-------------+

Edit2: note that your clock is 8 seconds slow. If you're trying to stake CLAMs that could be a problem. The timestamps on bets use your local time, whereas chat messages use server time.

Something is going on. I watched "Layla" win at 14% over 30 times in a row. I just can't see that being hit that many times at 14%.. What's the mathmatical odds of that? I would really like to know.
 
I couldn't get a good screenshot with all the bets going but here's one.. Never a loss, only win at 14%.. I'm thinking some sort of copy paste but idk. I just can't bring myself to believe that this is possible. I'm sure there are some mathematical number for the odds. I would like to know this.

https://i.imgur.com/rwXlJMO.png

If you buy and the price collapses you are likely to lose most your investment even if you made a lot of money from staking and losing players but if the price rises you will get a double pay out when you cash out.

Pretty legitimate site, I would have invested if I had enough resources.

I've contributed quite a lot of code changes to the CLAM client. That probably makes me "involved", I'd say.