I agree with your views, no one know what is the low price we should buy Bitcoin. If I have a bigger sum, I I will spilt my capital and buy a few times in the month. For the past few months, I actually buy a few hundred dollars worth of Bitcoin on my salary day.
Or you could just buy now and then leave your btcs for a while. Quite difficult to short btc nowadays and trying to get a good entry point may backfire if you can't go long. If you're going to go short term, probably it's better to deal with alts.