Topic: How to gamble the right way - page 9. (Read 3825 times)

It seem that not people are always lazy when it comes of playing gambling they really think that they can do what ever they want  on gambling most of all loosing money for them is does'nt matter at all as long as they are earning money from gambling they don't think about the risk

But there is a right way to play because as you already understood that you could win money from the gambling, then you should gambling only sometimes when you think the need for some fun or entertainment with the fixed little amount to avoid significant losses. In this way, you save a lot of money over the time, and this can be called one right to reduce your loses.

there is no right way to play gambling. gambling is staked money that you have. so the luck factor that was the deciding factor.
I have so much to play gambling, but it is very difficult to win the game if it's without luck.

Trading is a very general term to designate the activity on financial markets: it can mean buying/selling commodities, hedging against some risks...

When you trade, you make a contract with another party and you could design for example a hedging contract that will pay you 100,000$ if Trump is elected (because it may be bad for your immigration-related business) and 0$ if Clinton wins. Of course, that contract has a price which you pay upfront.

And if you compare it to sports betting, well it is exactly the same thing. 

Yes, I mentioned it in the beginning:

"Also note that I will only talk about betting on real events like sport games (typically sports betting or trading on prediction markets)."

And pro tip: (normally) there should be no way to make a profitable dice betting bot since dice is a just a game of chance which is rigged in favor of the gambling house. The chance in a computer is simulated by random number generators (which are not actually random if they purely rely on software) and unless you know the pattern of the random number generator, you cannot take a statistical advantage over the program, unless of course it has been coded by a donkey and there's an obvious flaw that you can exploit.

The trading he is mentioning is basically selling or buying into the fact that a certain event is going to happen. This is gambling, as the event outcome is unknown.

It is like buying into a bet saying Trump will win the elections. To me that is still betting.

I assume you are talking about "value betting" not "sure betting".

A value bet is a betting opportunity where you think one outcome (e.g. the victory of whatever team or player) is more likely to occur than the odds of the bookmaker actually suggest. If you check the calculations in the original post, I am showing how to compute the "opinion" of the bookmaker towards the game. Using the formula I gave, you can calculate the probability of victory of team A according to the bookmaker and see what he actually thinks is going to happen in the end.
I also gave a formula to compute the margin that the bookie takes, to give you a better idea of how "greedy" he is.
The opinion (i.e. probabilities) and margin are simple metrics that can help you decide if the bet is worth something or not.

As per how to take advantage of that, you need to first "decide" what your own probabilities are and then compare them to the odds of the bookmaker (see OP).

An example of that:

A plays against B and you can bet on either A or B.
Assume that you compute the "opinion" of the bookmaker and find that he thinks that A has 60% chance to win and B has 40% chance to win.
You also compute the margin and find 5% (that makes an overround of 1.05).
(All of this combined means the odds for A and B are respectively 1.587 and 2.380)

Now you need to "decide" what is your opinion of the game A vs B, in terms of probabilities: is it 65% for A and 35% for B, or maybe 70% | 30% or even 60% | 30% like the bookmaker. These values are yours to decide, they are up to your knowledge and expertise of the game.

If you think A has 65% chance of winning, then you compare this value to the inverse of the odds for A i.e. 1/1.587 which is equal to 0.630 roughly: you can see that it is smaller than 65% (=0.65). In these conditions, betting on A is an opportunity from your point of view and you should bet on A.
On the contrary, if you think A has no more than 60% chance of winning, then you should not bet on A (at this bookie at least) given that 0.60 < 0.630.

Of course, there's a thin line between assessing the chances of winning at 60% or 65% but this is what can give you an edge. And more realistically, you should only bet when you notice a significant difference between your probability and the bookmaker's, just to give you room for estimation errors.

yeah it is. and since it is a long wall of text i doubt that anybody is going to read it completely especially since the majority of users around here are betting in dice games.

and to be honest he lost me right in the 4th paragraph when said sports betting and "trading" since they have nothing in common

so, you're talking only about betting on sports right? because that wasn't clear and i feel like many people were coming here expecting to see a dice betting bot.

The part with the bookie and their odds. So you are basically calculating the profit based on what the bookie expectations or odds are but how can you take advantage of that?

Yeah you are right most people just gamble casually on the team they "think" will win or some just out right bet on the higgest odd and hope to get lucky. Thats not the right way to gamble in this way you will definitely lose more than you gain. If you do even little research it can really help you decide where to bet and how much to bet.

i also think this way about gambling.
there are a lot of different games to gamble in. but around here whenever we say gambling the first thing everybody thinks about is dice games and how it is 100% luck.

but in fact there are sports betting and many other card games like poker that require a great deal of skills and it is never more than 10% luck with these game.

I think if you not lazy and do the right research that you can make profits. I think most people don't do the research they need to and thus they are the ones that keep the bookies paid. You need money management as well because you dont want to bet everything in just one bet.

Agree , having some observations and  research regarding with your team or player   would  somehow make  an edge   with your bettings since you could somehow assured that  you may have higher  chance on winning  but  we  must not  forget  that  if luck isnt  on our side  those  strategies and  research would be nothing and  we would  surely lose.

Well if we are talking about sportsbetting well the luck is just a bunos on that platform since it is the biggest advantage for bettors if they know the league or the rooster where they are placing their bet for and deep analytical statistic research would really help for that so we can assured that our chances to win is big, and if they mean casino games well i think it needs strat since it is our pointer that we are on the right track and playing good on that games.

I don't think about luck. most importantly I usually do good research about the team prior to the bet if I do at sports betting. the problem of luck that is the last thing. because we all know gambling has always had luck. bankroll is very important, I always put my money under 50% for bet, due in part to back up. Sports gambling also is arguably easier to predict than other types of gambling that are 90% depend on luck.

Basically, I am just describing what you need to know and take care of if you are really serious about making money with gambling.
Of course, if it is a simple hobby, then you probably don't have to bother with any of these technical aspects and simply bet on what you fancy.

About the martingale, well it all depends what martingale you are talking about (there are many) and also what you mean exactly by martingale (the official definition is "a class of betting strategies" implicitly involving a single gambling house a.k.a. bookmaker).
But if there was one that would guarantee you a profit, it would be known, not only by gamblers but also by financial investors because both gambling and trading are essentially the same kind of activity.

Yeah right also its not 100% sure its all depends in our luck but it can give idea for those who gamblers out there that they didn't know if what they want to bet.

you are making things too complicated in my opinion.
the only important things to accept and always remember in gambling is
- managing your money: know how much you are willing to invest and how much of it you are willing to lose.
- try to use a good strategy and know the pros and cons of the strategy that you are using. so even using martingale method can be good if you use it right.
- and in the end you should always remember this is gambling and there is no right or wrong and there is certainly no guarantee to always win.

That's what I explained below. You cannot be surely profitable at a single bookie, but it may be achievable at several bookies (for the same market).