How to know Feb 7 was the optimal buy point 2019.

cocoadreamboy

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Quote from: timerland on June 12, 2019, 09:53:44 AM

Quote

P.S. The current price of bitcoin has a very different price floor and risk level than Feb 7. It is good to know where the true floor is. Currently I am short, but I know EXACTLY where I am long. I am trying to educate people on what is actually happening, and hopefully stabilize the crypto markets. Please let me know what you think!

I agree with the majority of your statements, I think it should have been very obvious that earlier this year prices were bottoming, simply because the market sentiment was just so bearish in the mainstream, as well as the fact that it was apparent there was a period of consolidation and sideways movement that usually signal the price floor, as it's getting tested.

However, would you be able to explain why exactly you are short at the moment, perhaps based off not only your own compiled statistics but other factors as well?

Also, educating others by yourself will not stabilize the market. There are much bigger investors and traders, especially those on leverage, that simply have way further influence over the market than the average trader. And besides, people will always be influenced by their emotions no matter what.

I am averaged out short from ~10k. Bitcoin recently hit $13,700 at that price bitcoin would need $23.4 million of investment every day (1800btc) to maintain that price. Due to my research I know how much the miners invest in bitcoin/day, and quite frankly I find it hard to believe that it can maintain this price for very long. There is a reason bitcoin goes up AND down, and my metrics and analytics chart and document the actual cash flows of the market.

Aaron

P.S. Dont overestimate the size of the bitcoin market, very few institutional investors and large movers and shakers are willing to or should be investing in bitcoin. Without my metrics that is Wink

1Referee

legendary

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Quote from: omonuyak on June 21, 2019, 04:20:16 PM

When bitcoin went down below $3200 people were still saying that bitcoin is going to gone down below that amount and that is heading towards $1000 but that was the bottom and those that were able to buy then and are still holding will seriously make profits because they understand risk and has invested at the right time.

People are delusional.

I think a lot got brainwashed by idiots with ties to Tyler Jenks, the man behind Hyperwave saying that the price was 'guaranteed' to hit the $1000 level. There was even a bet from one of their shills, which was a bet of 1BTC that Bitcoin would reach $1500 before $6500 on Bitstamp, and we know how that ended. Not sure if anyone took that bet, but I wouldn't mind seeing these losers bleed a bit.

We also have Alesio Rastani who still doesn't seem too confident that the bottom is in yet. Every large move in Bitcoins price and he uploads a video. Such a leech.

omonuyak

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What you post in the op is the right thing and many of us here did not understand risk at all. When bitcoin went down below $3200 people were still saying that bitcoin is going to gone down below that amount and that is heading towards $1000 but that was the bottom and those that were able to buy then and are still holding will seriously make profits because they understand risk and has invested at the right time.

South Park

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I am terrible at Fantasy Football!!!

Quote from: Harlot on June 13, 2019, 02:11:03 PM

I'm not really into analyzing historical prices or prices that have already happened in the past since they will always end up accurate because you aren't really predicting anything. Its like how news websites so the reason why BTC have moved after it had already happened, they'll try to connect every news they deemed worthy of connectin with the price movement. With your "miner's are buying BTC rather than creating them" analysis shows the same thing as what news sites are showing.

Unfortunately if you want to prove if the strategy you have created is profitable you have no option but to test it against the previous prices, as long as you do not use information that should be unavailable to you at that day, like using the next day price, then any test that you run will effectively give you an idea of how well your strategy preformed in the past and how it will perform in the future, now the strategy created by the OP is really interesting to say the least but I do not use fundamentals in my strategy so I do not how effective it can be.

cocoadreamboy

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Quote from: Zemomtum on June 15, 2019, 05:47:59 PM

What an intelligent and hardwork displayed on your site. This will take an enormous time to accomplish. I have already bookmarked the page for regular visitation. You are indeed a guru, big thumb up for you.

It means a lot that you said that, thank you. I am honored.

You might be interested in the new risk analysis that I posted here:

https://www.amsinger.org/price-floor-in-action

I am happy to work hard for my clients. I hope you consider becoming one.

Truly, thank you for the compliment.

Aaron

cocoadreamboy

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Quote from: ukloon on June 15, 2019, 05:16:31 PM

Just keep buying when spare cash is available. Trying to find the floor is a futile exercise with so many people or self proclaimed experts saying the floor is xyz, in fact most of them are completely wrong

Most of them are, but my algos find the creation cost. That is the true price floor. No charts or magic, just true calcs.

The creation cost is the pre-purchase price of bitcoin. People that spend millions of dollars a day pre purchasing bitcoin are willing to buy it for less than the pre purchase price fo sho. They are also willing to sell it to people that are willing to pay 9255 Cheesy

Aaron

Zemomtum

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CitizenFinance.io

What an intelligent and hardwork displayed on your site. This will take an enormous time to accomplish. I have already bookmarked the page for regular visitation. You are indeed a guru, big thumb up for you.

ukloon

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Just keep buying when spare cash is available. Trying to find the floor is a futile exercise with so many people or self proclaimed experts saying the floor is xyz, in fact most of them are completely wrong

cocoadreamboy

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Quote from: Oilacris on June 13, 2019, 02:38:33 PM

Knowing the price floor? This is always been the quest of most people who do make trade and invest.

We do only say such things when it do already happen.On those times you cant really make such easy buy
because doubts and fear is already been experienced and thoughts on mind that it might even hit more lower
price is there and that's why I don't really believe into these tools or technicals because this market is always been
unpredictable.

There was a great buy time on May 2 just like feb 7. It is not as complicated as others would have you believe.

The only reason BTC, ETH, BCH, or LTC have value is because of the cash flow and sunk investment behind these coins. I have updated my sample analysis page to show people the true amount of money going through these coins and creating the price floor:

https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis

I offer this current information to my clients, and even give month old information out for free because I am trying to help people understand what they are investing in. For most people BTC is a seasonal investment once or twice a year at the right time and a sell here and there. I want people to get in at the right time and out at the right time, it is my duty. I got wrecked in Nov 2018 I don't want other people to go through that.

Aaron

cocoadreamboy

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Quote from: Harlot on June 13, 2019, 02:11:03 PM

I'm not really into analyzing historical prices or prices that have already happened in the past since they will always end up accurate because you aren't really predicting anything. Its like how news websites so the reason why BTC have moved after it had already happened, they'll try to connect every news they deemed worthy of connectin with the price movement. With your "miner's are buying BTC rather than creating them" analysis shows the same thing as what news sites are showing.

Which news sites are reporting on crypto cash flow? Which news sites use algorithmic methods of fundamental financial analysis?

I've been to crypto news sites. They are complete gossip houses full of FOMO nonsense.

If you can back up what you are saying I will gladly concede and tell you, "This news site is showing people the true fundamentals of BTC, ETH, BCH, and LTC. Exactly the same way that I am."

For some reason I don't think I will have to say that Wink

Check out the new risk analysis:

https://www.amsinger.org/price-floor-in-action

cocoadreamboy

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Quote from: timerland on June 12, 2019, 09:53:44 AM

Quote

P.S. The current price of bitcoin has a very different price floor and risk level than Feb 7. It is good to know where the true floor is. Currently I am short, but I know EXACTLY where I am long. I am trying to educate people on what is actually happening, and hopefully stabilize the crypto markets. Please let me know what you think!

I agree with the majority of your statements, I think it should have been very obvious that earlier this year prices were bottoming, simply because the market sentiment was just so bearish in the mainstream, as well as the fact that it was apparent there was a period of consolidation and sideways movement that usually signal the price floor, as it's getting tested.

However, would you be able to explain why exactly you are short at the moment, perhaps based off not only your own compiled statistics but other factors as well?

Also, educating others by yourself will not stabilize the market. There are much bigger investors and traders, especially those on leverage, that simply have way further influence over the market than the average trader. And besides, people will always be influenced by their emotions no matter what.

Thank you for your questions.

I am short because with my analysis I understand the current risk levels. I cannot share current data, that is reserved for clients, but I have made a risk analysis for May 2 compared to May 27 you can find that here:

https://www.amsinger.org/price-floor-in-action

At this stage of my trading I only operate based on risk and patience. I don't feed into the hype or FOMO. Simply cold hard numbers.

If not me then who? The mighty oak started as a little acorn

With new subscribers I can continue to fund my research. I can expand into exchange tracking and true volume information, arbitrage, and grow into even more.

As for the emotional people, my clients and I will be glad to take their money.

Aaron

cocoadreamboy

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Quote from: leowonderful on June 11, 2019, 10:50:49 AM

I've been reading about the break from $6k for some months now and some also speculate that the reason for the fall wasn't simply because of BCH but mainly miners finally capitulating and selling off their coins after holding the mined coins to create an artificial price floor at $6k. The miners might've anticipated the price would rise again without the selling pressure from all the daily mined BTC, but after it didn't the miners finally sold off their coins and the drop to $3k happened. Nobody really knows in the end, though this certainly makes sense.

I have heard similar things about miners shorting at 4500 with intentions to payback their coins later. It makes sense.

The exchanges exist to give miners liquidity. That is their main purpose.

At the end of 2018 there was also an efficiency upgrade that served to tank the price even more. It was a perfect storm.

cocoadreamboy

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Quote from: yohananaomi on June 11, 2019, 09:11:57 AM

Quote from: ukloon on June 09, 2019, 12:01:46 PM

Buying at the bottom is the dream of all investors but no-one knows where the bottom is including the whale manipulators. They can try are create the bottom but there is always another whale with a different idea

I strongly agree with the opinion that you stated that it is very difficult to determine about bitcoin, because bitcoin has its own uniqueness which is sometimes difficult to understand. so determining the bottom part of the price is also difficult to understand, especially maybe there are also many who have different conclusions.
what is clear is that bitcoin is heading towards a fairly good improvement.

I made these fundamentals so people can understand the basic cash flow of bitcoin. It is not magic and dreams. If you think bitcoin will increase from here I wish you success Wink

Oilacris

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Knowing the price floor? This is always been the quest of most people who do make trade and invest.

We do only say such things when it do already happen.On those times you cant really make such easy buy
because doubts and fear is already been experienced and thoughts on mind that it might even hit more lower
price is there and that's why I don't really believe into these tools or technicals because this market is always been
unpredictable.

Harlot

hero member

Activity: 1806

Merit: 672

I'm not really into analyzing historical prices or prices that have already happened in the past since they will always end up accurate because you aren't really predicting anything. Its like how news websites so the reason why BTC have moved after it had already happened, they'll try to connect every news they deemed worthy of connectin with the price movement. With your "miner's are buying BTC rather than creating them" analysis shows the same thing as what news sites are showing.

South Park

hero member

Activity: 2884

Merit: 794

I am terrible at Fantasy Football!!!

Quote from: ukloon on June 09, 2019, 12:01:46 PM

Buying at the bottom is the dream of all investors but no-one knows where the bottom is including the whale manipulators. They can try are create the bottom but there is always another whale with a different idea

That is the beauty of the markets, some whales may decide to try to manipulate the price but if another group of whales see this they could try to get advantage of it and make the manipulators pay, as an example if a group of whales decided to try to keep the price low by selling coins and shorting the market another group of whales could begin to buy their coins at such incredible discount, eventually the whales that are manipulating the market will either run out of money or just realize they have being losing money and then the market will go back to its natural level.

timerland

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Quote

P.S. The current price of bitcoin has a very different price floor and risk level than Feb 7. It is good to know where the true floor is. Currently I am short, but I know EXACTLY where I am long. I am trying to educate people on what is actually happening, and hopefully stabilize the crypto markets. Please let me know what you think!

I agree with the majority of your statements, I think it should have been very obvious that earlier this year prices were bottoming, simply because the market sentiment was just so bearish in the mainstream, as well as the fact that it was apparent there was a period of consolidation and sideways movement that usually signal the price floor, as it's getting tested.

However, would you be able to explain why exactly you are short at the moment, perhaps based off not only your own compiled statistics but other factors as well?

Also, educating others by yourself will not stabilize the market. There are much bigger investors and traders, especially those on leverage, that simply have way further influence over the market than the average trader. And besides, people will always be influenced by their emotions no matter what.

BitHodler

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Quote from: leowonderful on June 11, 2019, 10:50:49 AM

The miners might've anticipated the price would rise again without the selling pressure from all the daily mined BTC, but after it didn't the miners finally sold off their coins and the drop to $3k happened. Nobody really knows in the end, though this certainly makes sense.

You can actually follow what miners do with their coins since everything here is transparent. Aside from some occasional selling on spot exchanges to cover operational costs, miners tend to hold on to their coins fairly long.

Miners will never intentionally sell the market down to such degree because that affects their profitability. Selling the market down like that is similar to shooting yourself in the foot. Even Bitmain isn't that stupid.

What tanked the price seems to be a descending triangle that generally has a bias to break out lower, and that's exactly what happened. BCH vs BSV hashwar might have slightly increased the probability of breaking out lower.

leowonderful

legendary

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Bitcoin FTW!

I've been reading about the break from $6k for some months now and some also speculate that the reason for the fall wasn't simply because of BCH but mainly miners finally capitulating and selling off their coins after holding the mined coins to create an artificial price floor at $6k. The miners might've anticipated the price would rise again without the selling pressure from all the daily mined BTC, but after it didn't the miners finally sold off their coins and the drop to $3k happened. Nobody really knows in the end, though this certainly makes sense.

STT

legendary

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Quote from: pushups44 on June 06, 2019, 06:56:39 PM

In my view people should not attempt to precisely time this market, because it is so volatile and erratic, and possibly manipulated. I prefer to dollar-cost average during bear markets and buy strategically during bull markets. The best time to buy was during the latter part of 2018, IMO.

In retrospect we were all told the selling was false from that twitter war and fork split to BCH. How that can also kick onto BTC was a surprise to all of us I guess but the important part was the forcing selling and artificial also because it was just selling from a long term holder almost deliberately to bring down the price of the main chain which then kicks onto the value of all other crypto pretty much.

It didnt click in my head but we all know fake moves like this can be inverse to the apparent price action. Price went down in a fake move, hence it was a reasonable time to buy in on an average cost basis like you mention.
Cant say I saw that at the time but I've seen it a few times in various markets that short term selling can provide a fake out. The move up has also been a surprise but is related to this I think

Feb prices were a series of lows rising, that trend at the time was quite slow but it was an incline and more bullish then given credit for. As it was such a regular trend it probably should have been better rated as a good buy

Topic: How to know Feb 7 was the optimal buy point 2019. (Read 539 times)