Topic: How to know Feb 7 was the optimal buy point 2019. - page 2. (Read 539 times)

I strongly agree with the opinion that you stated that it is very difficult to determine about bitcoin, because bitcoin has its own uniqueness which is sometimes difficult to understand. so determining the bottom part of the price is also difficult to understand, especially maybe there are also many who have different conclusions.
what is clear is that bitcoin is heading towards a fairly good improvement.

Buying at the bottom is the dream of all investors but no-one knows where the bottom is including the whale manipulators. They can try are create the bottom but there is always another whale with a different idea

I find the lowest limit by finding the most efficient machine cost. If the hash rate is stable there is not logical way for bitcoin to cross the price floor of the most efficient miner without miners having to shut down computers and lower the hash rate. Bitcoin only has "no risk" (by this I meant negligible 8% risk of lowering to the lowest price floor) when it is close to the floor. When it is high above the floor the risk can be astronomical.

I specifically made this price floor to understand EXACTLY how much speculation was in the market. By knowing the cost of "prepaid" bitcoins that miners are mining I know how much bitcoin is traded for wholesale. If I contrast that with the spot price on markets I know the retail. It is not worth buy expensive retail bitcoin during high speculation.

It is about investing in bitcoin at the appropriate times and selling bitcoin at the appropriate times. Knowing my data would of told you to buy bitcoin on Feb 7, during march, or on May 2. Not very many people have access to the true bitcoin price floor. Many of the "top" traders were predicting $2000/$1000 on feb 7, when that was just a ridiculous emotional response. Ignorant of the true mechanics of bitcoin.

I am trying to build a client base of intelligent traders, so I can expand my fundamentals and dig deeper into understanding this new market. No FOMO or speculation, just logic and numbers

Thank you for your comment.

Aaron

Hindsight is always 20/20. What is difficult is predicting where the "true floor" is, which I think a lot of the times TA alone is unable to do so if you don't take into account a lot of the macro factors alongside with some technical analysis.

I think that the easiest way to realise at that stage where the market was at and why it was bottoming was looking at the mainstream investor sentiment, which was extremely bearish, and there was a general fear and uncertainty within the market. Heck, you've got Tom Lee lowering his outlandish predictions - that how bad things were getting.

Going against the market sentiment and looking at the fundamentals of bitcoin at that stage was the rational thing to do, and if you did so, you would have realised that bitcoin was vastly undervalued, and looking at historical trends of bear markets bottoming out at around 20-25% of the peak price beforehand, you would have came to the same conclusion, without any TA.

The analysis you presented is quite clear and opens my mind to speculation about price and risk. But my question is if indeed bitcoin has no risk then how do we determine the lowest bitcoin floor or the last floor.
Everyone here I'm sure only a few understand about science, even they only rely on speculation and FOMO. So how do you determine the lowest bitcoin price limit?

At the previous hash rate it was physically unable to go below that point because that would mean the miners were mining at negative profit (which is fundamentally stupid). No one does anything in a business sense for negative profit. Miners are intelligent people, and if they weren't able to mine for profit they would switch off their machines and use their electricity money to buy bitcoin or simply wait.

The hash rate is a real thing, and when it is at a point there has to be X amount of money going to electricity and Y amount of money invested in assets and infrastructure. If the price was going to go below $3300 the hash rate would of dropped to the correct new price floor.

Manipulation is rampant in crypto. Pump and dumps are very profitable. There will always be volatility in crypto. I just want to help my clients be able to see what is happening and know their risk so they can profit too.

Aaron  

You know, I do not think that fundamental analysis works in the cryptocurrency market. In my opinion, technical analysis works very well in this market. And loading the brain additionally also makes no fundamental analysis.

Thank you for your support. I made these analytics so that people can see what the true value of crypto is. I no longer trade on feelings, emotions, or where I think bitcoin will be in a year. I trade now with these metrics which tell me the cash flow and assets (i.e. the actual investments) of crypto. I am now immune to scams and I know my risk.

I made this stuff for people so they don't have to learn the technical terms and research halving and know what mining equipment is coming out. I do all that for you

My pleasure,

Aaron

On your likn it seems like you are trying to analyze the BTC price basing on mining cost, electricity cost etc. which is wrong by default. If miner had to pay X amount of money to mine a coin then it doesn't mean that the price won't get under that point. People are buying different assets and then selling it for lower price to fix their losses. Miners can't force people to hodl their coins.
And I'm just curious:
Why da fuck electricity cost at 9:40 AM is different from cost on 10:30 AM ?

So let me ask you this, did you just realize that $3370 was btc price floor now that it has risen to 7k+ or you already new this since february 7 and you didn't made your post then? because i see your publication is very recent,
And again you already know where this current price floor is judging from your post but i don't see you mentioning it here so that when the time comes we can make reference to your earlier post to compare if is right or wrong
thanks for taking your time to educate us

According to the article you posted:


Can some mining experts here refute or prove his theory though? I think I would consider this 'controversial' though. I never heard of miners just go and stop mining and then started to buy bitcoins. Although we have a lot of discussions about the dropping hash rate at that time.

Anyway, goodluck to your project, looks like you just gave us a glimpse on your theory. The thing though is that you need to subscribe $19.99 to have "access to the weekly fundamental email as well as daily fundamental website updates. "

I know that science is evolving every day, and even the technical analysis is evolving as well, everything is evolving. But let's be honest here ... Who really had absolute guarantees that $3300 was the lowest price that bitcoin would reach? I saw a lot of pessimistic comments and all the pessimistic comments that I saw, had the idea that the price would fall to $2500 and others said it would fall to $1000. it was as if most people were convinced that the price would not recover in the next two years. I had already lost all hope that I would see more than $8000 still in this year of 2019.

Great analysis and I'm amazed by how you analyzed and predict the future of the market that easy and advanced.
Let's say your analyzation could possibly happen but keep in mind that the market could go into another situation surprisingly and unexpectedly. Sometimes, it goes in a different path more than what we expect.

By all means provide your methods here. I am open to the idea of certain methods providing insights on the market. I recall some of the leading technical analysts out there, such as Tone Vays and Tyler Jenks, missing the bottom - assuming we are out of the bear market. I haven't looked at your methods so I can't really critique them.

Historically, buying and holding has worked out well for investors. This strategy has also worked for Amazon investors.

As per checking your analysis, I have seen how you have observed every single detail of the market movement. It will be a big help for those who are having confusions about the volatility of the market. It's good too and everything is actually easy to understand.

I am impressed with this analysis and data presented on your site. Indeed, this can help for us who are into bitcoin so that we can ascertain where is the floor price against the actual coin price. Interestingly, when the coin price is below the actual price miners would be participating in the market buying more bitcoin so these people are themselves playing with the market this way. I am not good with technical terms and understanding with cryptocurrency so this guide can be of big help to widen my knowledge. Thanks for sharing, Aaron.

It is less about precisely timing the market, and more about understanding the basic cash flow and asset amounts active in bitcoin. How can you dollar-cost average if you have no idea where the floor is. If I think bitcoin can go to zero from any height dollar cost averaging doesn't work. If I know the baseline operating floor for bitcoin I can more effectively dollar cost in.

https://www.amsinger.org/fundamental-method

This is an explanation of the best practices for dollar-cost averaging into bitcoin. With an understanding of the baseline, you can gauge the speculation. If you know the speculation you can sell for a premium and buy for a discount.

Aaron

In my view people should not attempt to precisely time this market, because it is so volatile and erratic, and possibly manipulated. I prefer to dollar-cost average during bear markets and buy strategically during bull markets. The best time to buy was during the latter part of 2018, IMO.

Hey guys,

I have published my data and complete analysis here on my site:

https://www.amsinger.org/open-research

This is the true reason bitcoin didn't go below the $3370 point. It had gone below 4 of the 5 price floors, but it did not go through the true price floor. This is why it is called the TRUE price floor. The price went to $4160 16 days later.

If you had access to this data, you would have seen that an investment in bitcoin at this time had virtually no risk. Understanding risk is the cornerstone of investing. That is why it is called investing and not gambling.

If you are curious to see how you can get use price floors in your trading and understand your risk, check out my sample analysis page:

https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis

The current fundamentals to BTC , BCH, ETH, and LTC are available.

Trading without knowing the fundamentals and risk is like flying without an altimeter. Don't be a fool, know your risk.

Aaron

P.S. The current price of bitcoin has a very different price floor and risk level than Feb 7. It is good to know where the true floor is. Currently I am short, but I know EXACTLY where I am long. I am trying to educate people on what is actually happening, and hopefully stabilize the crypto markets. Please let me know what you think!