Topic: How will Bitcoin behave in the approaching crisis? (Read 374 times)

Why wouldn't such a scenario happen? I'm curious to hear others' opinions on this question. To do this, I created this topic: to discuss all sorts of scenarios for the development of events.

"11 answers to 10 questions" - I think this is normal. How many different people, so many different opinions they will have. This suggests that no one knows the future and this future is not predetermined, but we can try to predict the situation. The more different opinions we take into account, the closer to reality our forecasts can turn out to be.

You are absolutely right and I don't claim that everything described in the articles is true and is 100% implemented. I want to pay attention to what experienced financiers are warning about and prepare for the worst-case scenario they predict. If a person is ready for a future problem, then when it arises, this problem is no longer so dangerous.

I have exactly the same premonition and also adhere to this possible scenario.

Some are of this opinion. An example of this.

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. Everyone's opinions don't have to be the same. This is fine.

And here our opinions coincide.

It's a good topic, and I'm curious to see what the majority believe. It's true that Bitcoin didn't face a complete economic collapse, but there was something I'd like to use as a base for my prediction: March of 2020, when Covid was declared a pandemic (can't believe there was a time before Covid, to be honest). The stock market (I'm looking at the S&P 500 chart as a reference) went down but started recovering in April, making a full recovery to pre-pandemic value by August of 2020. Bitcoin's behavior was very similar in that case, but while it was the biggest recent crash for the stock market, Bitcoin has had more significant rises and crashes since then. So my guess is that Bitcoin will initially go down along with everything else, but it will start recovering within a couple of months, and will do that faster than the stock market because Bitcoin doesn't really depend on world's economy and because it will probably receive investments from those fleeing the crashing stock market. And then Bitcoin will have its own high and low points, while the world economy simply keeps crawling back up.

Market tradition is a pump and dump but lots of time markets are trying to dip and lots of bad and good news coming so waiting for good something.

You must be very new in crypto. We have seen the stock market and crypto market moving up an down together in multiple times. You could even check from 2020 to 2022 and you could see how many times it crashed together and went up together as well. So, there is really no way that we could say they are independent from each other. This doesn't mean that they ALWAYS move together, of course there are times when they react differently to somethings.

However, considering there are also times when they act together, they are not totally irrelevant neither. There are special reasons why markets go down or up, and on this specific one, I have to say it is definitely positive approach to where we are in crypto and bad for the fiat world.

in times of economic crisis, I think people will survive, and sell their assets to live,
I think bitcoin will continue to run but the existing price will go down slowly according to economic conditions
and the existing stock market

Yeah.  and bitcoin depends on the stock market?  Lol, Bitcoin could become a standard of accepted monetary practice in the future is another scenario and bitcoin's price action shows its cumulative dynamics throughout the long term.  On top of that, violations of geopolitical concerns can further generate inflation.  oil rose by 10 dollars and the next consequence?  Let's wait and see how bitcoin's price behavior could be the way it's been for years, for all the cycles of influence it could have.
The printers will continue to work harder to fill the gap, and bitcoin will go to $100k in a few years, it looks like the best-case scenario I guess.

Bitcoin is entirely different and is not  attached to any economy of sorts. So, if there happens to be a crisis and the economy of most countries around the world is losing its value, I don’t think it would have anything to do with Bitcoin or affect it at all, rather the value of Bitcoin would continue to increase as it is doing now.

That is one reason why all of us should make sure that we are fully investing in Bitcoin, because when such a time comes, anyone who has invested as early as now would be the one who would truly benefit from it. Definitely bitcoin is going to be a perfect hedge against all types of economic crisis and when more people do participant into bitcoin investments then it would be turning as a amazingly performing hedge fund.

This bubble thing warning is not new to us but how many times they say that bitcoin is a bubble? And bitcoin still did not popped but its still here alive and kicking but if ever there are other crisis that will occur I think that the price of btc is going to get affected because its crisis and crisis means something that is negative but the effects are only temporary and it shall soon pass.

People should not worry that much but I know that worrying of others cant be avoided, some would panic and this again can affect the price making the price more dump. The second scenario on your list can also happen because I  have seen this before where stocks are fallen but btc is rising because people temporarily transfer their funds here .

Anyone who said that we will be going up during the crisis must be very new in the crypto world. We always go down with the world before we start to go up. Look at the march 2020 just recently, because of pandemic the price of oil, gold, stocks and even fiat value all dropped like crazy and crypto went down with them. Look at it after a year when stock market went high and you could see how it was crypto peak as well.

All those Elon Musk at 300+ billion days were bitcoins peak times as well. So, I would have to say that it is not really too different, there are of course periods where they act differently but that is not all the time, it is only rarely that it works together.

For now, we can only speculate when Satoshi actually came up with the idea to make Bitcoin and whether he had inspiration in any of the earlier projects that failed or remained just on the idea. Interestingly, B-money and Bit Gold (Nick Szabo) have one link, and that is the year 1998 in which both go public. Satoshi may have gotten the idea to create BTC back then or in the years to come, given that both projects have quite similarities to Bitcoin.


More opinions and critical thinking are always desirable and that has always been positive for me. Maybe we can say that Bitcoin was born during a great economic crisis and that it was making its first steps then, but that today it is a real teenager trying to stand by the side of much stronger and older than himself. I’m not a pessimist, but we all know how it mostly ends, in a battle between a bull that has big horns and one that has small horns, the latter mostly pulls out the thick end.



I am always guided by the thought that the main reason why people do not invest more in Bitcoin because at least two things prevent them from doing so, the first is ignorance and the second is uncertainty about the future stemming from the fact that governments around the world do not have a clear position on these things - let's just take the example of Russia or India, and more recently the US, which is changing its position every month. This never creates a good climate for investors seeking security, even at the cost of minimal loss of investment. The fact that about $5 trillion has been invested in negative-yield bonds speaks volumes about what serious investors think.

Yes, I am aware that some concepts from earlier versions of electronic cast were used to create Bitcoin. Most likely it was that Satoshi had been developing he's project for more than one year.

Here I disagree with you. There is nothing wrong. How many people - so many opinions. That's why this topic was created to hear different points of view. For I believe that the more different points of view we know, the more complete picture of the current situation we can get.

At that moment, Bitcoin was unknown to anyone and was not used by anyone. I would not include that period in what the crisis found. The current situation is completely different: you yourself see the capitalization, the number of active wallets and transactions. Hash-rate after all. I assume that Bitcoin test by fire will be exactly in the coming years. A really difficult situation is foreseen.


Thank you for your point of view and for taking the time to write this. I liked your version and it is quite possible.

Bitcoin is decentralized and there is no control over it an increase in the amount of investment in bitcoin will increase its demand which will help the country to overcome the crisis there is no need for central bank in the age of technology. According to them corruption in the central banks and the damage caused by this corruption has become a concern in the economy of the common people bitcoin should be implemented if only one person transacts with another person and if the process is hassle free. Bitcoin should be approved in any country albeit to keep pace with the times and to survive in competition with other countries.

I think that there is no doubt that bitcoin is correlated with stock returns - it is a risky asset.

So in the event that high interest rates come, I think that BTC will perform very similarly to the broader markets on the way down.

However, if the impending economic doom is actually some sort of total collapse of the fiat system, there is no doubt that BTC prices will soar as it is one of the best hedges against fiat collapse out there.

But, is there really anything that correlates with Bitcoin in price? If there is then there is the possibility that such tech is going to have a value that is as volatile as Bitcoin, which I don’t think there is anything That is as such. Although I do know that there are times when Bitcoin would move the same direction with the stock market, yes it is quite possible and we have seen that happen a few times like during the pandemic, but that is when it is a situation that generally affects everything, and in the case of this crisis that a lot of economists are predicting, I don’t think Bitcoin is something that would be affected.

It's not as if the global economy as well as domestic economies of countries have been running smoothly ever since Bitcoin was born. Bitcoin has been around for more than a decade and it has seen a number of crises, a recession, and stock market crashes. As a matter of fact, there is that more recent 2020 economic recession largely brought about by the pandemic. And countries are still recovering from it until now.

In what was called the Black Monday and Black Thursday some time in the first and second quarters of 2020, the global stock market crashed. We have seen Bitcoin lost half of its price value. Whether it was brought by the global crisis or not, we don't know. But there must be a connection.

On the other hand, however, we have seen how Bitcoin has been rising in adoption where there is monetary crisis. In Venezuela, for example, or in Argentina or Turkey, Bitcoin became an attractive alternative after their fiat is fast losing value.

So, all in all, Bitcoin is indeed part of the global economy but it is also unique at the same time such that it could actually play the role of a hedge or an alternative. So in contrast to the traditional market, it will definitely be less affected.

It is possible politicians and governments never manage monetary policy in an efficient or responsible manner. State programs and spending always wind up bloated and inefficient. The consensus solution to debt caused by inefficient fiscal mismanagement is to tax, spend and print their way out of deficit and debt. Eventually, credit runs out and inflation occurs. This pattern is consistent throughout history. Which is why Voltaire is often quoted as saying: "paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value: zero".

Imagine if the average person had billions of other peoples money to spend. There is no real accountability, transparency or oversight. Would these funds be handled responsibly or spent efficiently. Despite being virtually no incentive for either to occur. Governments could mishandle funds for decades, even centuries. Before the worst case scenario occurred. Where they finally reach a point where they cannot print additional mountains of fiat to bail the overextended state out.

Always been like this and to those people who do have actual experience on this market or been staying up on here for years would actually know on what they should gonna do on specific scenario or situation.
We've seen that fundamentals could neither give out effect or not and that would really be situational.

This is what makes this market too unpredictable on which it could neither been affected or would totally ignore and would continue to rise up.One things for sure that this market could neither only have
that bullish or bearish run and as an investor or trader then you should know on how to play with those waves.

I think some of the points you made here are logical. They may be planning ahead the sanction that may come to them if Putin decide to continue threat against Ukraine and other vices alleged on Russia. Bitcoin is however proofing to be safe heaven for the time and this will turn an eye to most countries that fear the US sanctions. If they bring the draft bill up then the story becomes very authentic.

Bitcoin already has survived at least one global crisis (the COVID-19 crisis in 2020/21). However, I think that's not exactly what the OP means as this crisis was generated by an external factor, a global pandemic and above all the measures taken by several states to combat it.

However, there were regional crisis events which could be seen as a precedent for an international crisis in the vein of 2007-09. The most notorious examples are Argentina (2018 and 2020) and Venezuela (a long one, at least 2015-19 and according to many it still goes on). In both countries, the "printing press" was at least partly responsible for the events, and led to high inflation. In contrast, Bitcoin rose to unprecedented levels of popularity, and while the influence of both countries on the BTC price is low, it is perfectly possible that Argentina's 2018 crisis prevented a deeper BTC crash in that year, and Venezuela helped to keep Bitcoin's demand "rolling".

I guess however it's not 1:1 possible to adapt that scenario to a future stock market crisis accompanied by elevated inflation, as some predict. There is already much more knowledge about Bitcoin in the general public than even in 2018, those interested in "sound money" theories are probably already invested (or are gold bugs), and so while we can expect some (mostly retail) money going into BTC as an "alternative" asset, the effect would perhaps be weaker than some could expect. The general outcome could even be slightly bearish, if risky investments lose so much popularity that they outweigh the relative Bitcoin popularity increase, or if the events unfold as fast as in March 2020 when Bitcoin crashed together with nearly all markets.

However, if Bitcoin manages to survive the most acute market convulsions significantly better than the stock market - which could happen - then I'm very optimistic that the market would be likely to remain bullish; this could even bring the desired mass adoption.

Eh....if we are in an "everything bubble" then why would anyone expect bitcoin not to crash when everything else does? 

When I took economics years ago in college, one of the first things the professor did in class was to say this:  "Ask 10 economists a question and you'll get 11 different answers".  So even though OP linked to two articles (which I haven't read yet but will) predicting economic doomsday, that doesn't mean either of them are right.  On the other hand, my personal opinion is that there is indeed a crash coming, and it's going to be a big one--at least in the stock market.  Stocks have been on a rip-roaring, drunken tear for over a decade now, and that can't be sustained indefinitely.

OP, I don't understand what you mean here in the part that I've bolded:

I don't think bitcoin is at all dependent on what the stock market does.  I'm not even sure I agree that it behaves like a tech stock other than the fact that it's extremely volatile.  What I do think is that whenever stocks crash in a big way, bitcoin will probably at least slide downward.  And if we go into a major recession I'm almost certain bitcoin will take a massive hit.