Topic: How will Bitcoin behave in the approaching crisis? - page 2. (Read 374 times)

That's correct! Russia will release their draft legislation on 18th February 2022, which will talk about regulating bitcoin as a currency. And your statement is the exact reason why bitcoin will not follow the global market in case of a depression. People will need a way out in case another global depression hits the markets. At today's time, there's no other better alternative than bitcoin or some altcoins. So a huge number of population will flock to get bitcoin which will drive the demand up and so the price. In a turmoil situation, bitcoin will not become less volatile, rather it will step up because the fiat value will be decreasing and the demand is increasing.

I read today that Russia wants to refrain from banning Bitcoin, instead the country wants to regulate Bitcoin. It is probably because of possible sanctions and the repeated threat to exclude Russia from the SWIFT payment system in case of war. With Bitcoin, Russia could circumvent some of the sanctions.

Bitcoin will crash along with the market, historical trends have painted the same picture so I don't see a reason to believe why it would be any different. I'd expect the recovery to outperform all the other markets because of the unstable currencies that are backed behind other markets. The inflation crisis is what will eventually cause the collapse, so it may push for mass adoption if people are smart.

There are numerous angles to this matter here. Thing is when peeps are looking at such economic crisis they are thinking about only few countries in the world and mostly focus on USA and how their federal reserves are acting upon it. The thing is on the other side there are counties whose GDP is ever going green and they are blooming despite the pandemic. Some Asian countries are becoming the biggest exporter of medical and emergency care thus gaining lead in the market.

The stocks and shares will drop for those companies which are least priority while tackling the financial burdens on any country. However, for healthcare and pharma research institute shares are up and up!!

This is why I opened up the conversation with numerous angle phrase.

It may happen we just save ourselves from economic crisis before the bubble breaks. Worlds resetting as the pandemic will kee diluting with the time.

Let me ask you this:
Bitcoin will stay afloat with the money poeple have lost in the stock market?
Because if the stock market crashes but still poeple manage to get money out of it they will not be able to do so unless, well, some other poeple buy those stocks, which mean as you can guess by now that in order for enough money to migrate to bitcoin you would need the same amount to be gradually invested in the same collapsing stock market. Thus, well, preventing the collapse in the first place.


Not along and not on the same degree after all in case of a crisis Bitcoin can't really go bankrupt like some companies for sure will do, but whoever thinks that poeple who have lost their investment, their job and maybe their home will somehow magically prop bitcoin's price and at the same time, the poeple who have coins and find themselves in the same situation will not sell or exchange it for necessities, thus driving the price lower seriously need a reality check.

So, as always, the probable answer will be somewhere in between.


But it's totally uncorrelated

None can be sure about the future and how is everything is going to work during the crisis, there are just theories by people. In a theory will think bitcoin will collapse during that time and just like the other markets and assets, but in another theory, bitcoin can rise during this time and the reason is to have more demand and more people getting into it during the economic crisis because they think bitcoin can save them and their funds from the inflation rate during the crisis, but in the hand we may have an stable market which stays stable and don't collapse or rise that much.

If we look at the last few years, Bitcoin would likely take a hit initially, as investors tend to get rid of risky assets in uncertain times, but then Bitcoin would quickly recover when the initial shock passes and the "uncorrelated asset" narrative will get boosted again. If enough investors will believe that it's a hedge against economic crash, and if they will hodl when the time comes, then other people will start believing in it too and Bitcoin will be more resilient. Unfortunately, right now the short-term price is still strongly affected by speculators.

I find it hard to tell. There may be people who's start taking their money out of BTC. Think of it like people doing a bankrun when Greece went bankrupt. Those who can afford to keep their money in would probably do rather than sell at a loss. Rich whales would probably take advantage of any significant price drop to hoard.

Personally I don't think an economic collapse would increase the number of people buying bitcoins. During hard times people tend to become more conservative with their money and just don't think they'd be risk it on BTC.

How Bitcoin will behave in the approaching crisis does depend on the fact if it's interlinked to the economy tightly or is it loosely bound. I do think that here we can very easily consider bitcoins to be loosely attached to the economic situation, rather it's dependent on the investors. In case of an economic crisis there would definately be small investors which will take their money out but at the same time most of the whales will keep it in and this would give this market a small backup, making sure that the price is not falling beyond the certain level. The price can surely dump and go 10-20% less but that's about it, people know how far it can jump and I do believe that no one is going to loose this chance to make money and sudden investments are going to make things easier for the price to bounce back to original.

I don't think Bitcoin was created in 2009 because of the crisis that started a year earlier, it was a coincidence if we take into account that Satoshi in his work was inspired by previous attempts to create something similar, and a good example is B-money , which emerged as an idea in 1998. I believe Satoshi worked on his project for years before he was ready to release it to the public.

I would not agree that Bitcoin was not tested in a crisis, if it was created only 1 year after one of them officially started - of course then and today are not comparable, but the first years of its existence Bitcoin actually lived in a great crisis.
 

Both options are possible, but I would not agree that most investors will turn to Bitcoin if the stock market starts to fail. The first reason is that most of them do not think that their money would be safe in Bitcoin due to possible hacking, insufficient regulation of the crypto market, and the fact that it is an extremely volatile asset. I think most of them will find their way out in real estate, gold and bonds, which in the end are still far more popular options than Bitcoin.

Depends on how tech stocks will behave because they seem to move correlated for a while. I expect the growth/tech stocks to go down for a while till the FED decides to lower the interest rates again and that means crypto will also go down with the tech stocks.

There is a possibility that the FED will stop raising the rates after the first hike because even 1 rate hike might trigger a worldwide market crash. In that scenario you may get yourself a good buy opportunity in March.

You must have heard that we are on the verge of a world economic crisis. Many economists have long been warning about a bubble.  Article 1 and article 2 for example.


The economic model in the world is arranged in such a way that the development of the economy is financed at the expense of unsecured money, and therefore the Federal Reserve System printing press stamps papers. Like it or not, this is how the global economy works now and the haters will definitely not change anything with their discontent. This feature of printing money out of thin air is a powerful booster as it allows the economy to boom, but as is often the case, there is a side effect. Namely, periodically occurring crises, which, according to one hypothesis, occur approximately every 10 years. The figure is quite floating, because it depends on many factors. The last one was in 2008. Many of you most likely remember this crisis, which arose against the backdrop of the mortgage lending crisis in the United States (this was clearly shown in the movie "Big short"). Then all this spread to the rest of the world didn't pass a single country.

The FED has painted itself into a corner and is between 2 fires: on the one hand, they raise the discount rate, on the other hand, inflation is growing. There is no choice here - both options are bad and have dire consequences. Events in the US economy (because the US economy occupies a large share in the world) directly affect the rest of the world. A couple of articles to understand what stage the economy is at: article 1 and article 2.

Also, you must remember that it was the events of 2008 that prompted the creation of Bitcoin as a way to avoid crises with its deflationary model. But it turned out that Satoshi's brainchild has not yet encountered crises, so it is not known how Bitcoin will behave in such a situation. In this connection, the question arises: how will Bitcoin manifest itself in a situation of crisis, which should come in the coming years, and maybe even earlier.

I see 2 possible scenarios:
1 - Bitcoin will collapse along with the market, because it is directly correlated and dependent on the stock market and behaves like a technology company aka Google (some people think so).
2 - Bitcoin will stay afloat, because people who see that the stock market is collapsing, invest all their money in crypto to save them.

I ask you to vote and express your opinion constructively / reasoned in the comments. What predictions can you make?