Topic: How will the next big recession affect the BTC price? - page 2. (Read 869 times)

Reading the topic, and others on the same subject, some contradictory arguments emerge from the same people without them noticing some facts that I will quote: As a person had a doubt about their investments in cryptocurrencies in a possible crisis, a member quoted:
 ''diversify their investments, do not put all the eggs in the same basket'' Because diversifying was the only way to survive the market.

And when the matter is the global financial crisis I see arguments like: ''all people go to precious metals'' Or all people go to the Bitcoin,  Or else ''all will come out of bitcoin to buy everything that is breaking at the lowest possible price''.

When it comes to Bitcoin, being a market that its members are much more active and connected with it, and most of these people not only believe,
as it does everything for their ecosystem to grow, and knowing the promising future of Bitcoin, I was wondering what It leads people to claim that
practically all the money would go out of the market to wherever it is. To crash as bad as the global fellowships.

 Only the NYSE has 21 trillion in its possession currently if 1% of only one market run to the cryptocurrencies in the middle of the blood bath, the impact on the price will be enormous, and who wanted to buy everything that was breaking, very cheap, now will have more money for it , only with the
profit of desperation from the other markets.
  
Now let's go to the questions I was asking myself: Why the hell does it have bitcoin possessions going to fly with 100% of their portfolio for who knows what? Why when it comes to bitcoins investors will they take everything they have and run from the market? And 90% are eager for the next bull run? Why would the big players in an attempt to save their capital, not think of diversifying their portfolios by buying bitcoins, gold, or wherever they are going to run? Will everyone run in the same direction? and inflate only one asset?

 If we put on a scale, the much money in fact that can leave the bitcoin market comparing with what can enter is simply absurd the difference. Even if a few billion go out, for each of those who leave, I believe it will enter 10, and in a short time. The real money holders will diversify their portfolios, regardless of the size of the crisis, the bitcoin will absorb part of this diversification, and 1% of all that enter will be 10x higher than anything you think about leaving. Who has 100 billion will not buy 100 billion in gold, He will use the moment when he will be forced to move this, or will have enormous losses, and will surely put part of it in bitcoins. and 1% in 1% of the world diversifying portfolios, we will have perhaps the greatest victory of all, the first.

Don't think the market's not ready enough, it is.
If you forgotten what is the real purpose of the creation of Bitcoin by Satoshi, is for these moments.  


(If I made a mistake, I'm sorry, English is not my native language.)

I think the price of bitcoin will rise in the next big recession. why? As the US dollar against the yen has shown signs of collapse some time ago, this has caused panic among many investors, which makes these investors choose bitcoin when switching!

After years, I now understand. The price of the bitcoin is not always expected. The market is reversing expectations. Generally...

i guess it depends on WHEN the recession is going to occur.
as we move forward, bitcoin stops being a highly volatile and speculative asset that swings wildly while being hard to predict; and it becomes a more solid asset with a better price that doesn't have the wild swings up and down.
this means more investors will include bitcoin in their portfolio. it doesn't have to be all-in bitcoin, just having a part of their investment in bitcoin can mean a rise.

right now if a recession happens, in my opinion, bitcoin would either be large unaffected or would have a small rise. but in near future in case of a recession i believe there will be a large bitcoin price rise as more people would convert their money to bitcoin as "store of value".

Bitcoin isn't just some extreme speculative bet. It was created in response to the 2007 economic crisis with an answer to where things were headed. In the 9 short years since, global debt has skyrocketed - US debt has doubled ffs. If you think bitcoin is going to sink with all conventional assets then you don't understand it - you are just here for the speculation.

Im optimist for bitcoin performing well on the next 2008 chapter. It is a global asset that never sleeps, and you can move it across borders seamlessly may your country go full Cyprus on your wealth.

Literally no other asset has these 2 features. Everything else is tied to something non-neutral (stocks and co are tied to the performance of certain countries, property is stuck where it is, gold will be confiscated on every border...). Of course, none of the altcoins cut it, they have no liquidity and are unsafe from a technical pov.
There is not much else out there, if you think there is then let me know.

Im already worried at EU. I think a lot of people are sleeping on the up and coming clusterfuck in Italy. This is my favorite video this week thus far: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=erSSC85CME4

Italy isn't Greece. If Salvini is not bluffing then an huge crisis will begin in EU and this will spread across the world. I would be scared to have my money anywhere but in BTC these days. Cyprus on steroids doesn't sound good.

That would be a great possibility for bitcoin to initiate during these big recession. We cannot stop what has to be done in the next coming days. It could be tommorow or even next year, because nobody cannot expect it to happen quickly. Long term process is need in order to make it a reality for all of us. Even though the scenario doesn't show positive trends at all, it doesn't mean we're giving but instead we should strive to survive.

Today in the stock market was another blood bath type of day. AMD basically lost 32% in the intraday due to less than favourable earnings. Dow Jones down 500 points on the day. And looking at BTC it changed by 0.14% in the last 24 hours. So basically it looks like the situation now is completely reversed.

Bitcoin was the volatile asset which had 20% green and red days and was considered highly volatile and risky. While the stock market moved mostly flat. So people decided to stop trading stocks and go trade cryptos because traders love volatility and now its completely the other way around. People will stop trading Bitcoin because it doesn't move and instead go and trade Stocks.

Instead of gambling on Bitmex using 100x leverage they will gamble with FD stock options.

Should be interesting times coming up.

in fact all of this was triggered by the global economic crisis, it is possible for some people to withdraw their investment from BTC for one reason
"BITCOIN does not show good potential throughout 2018"
while on the other hand traditional investment markets provide hope with a chaotic market so it is possible for them to play the money there

If a real meltdown occurs bitcoin will get hammered. You do not hang on to your extreme speculative bet when everything else is going up in smoke. It's had the good fortune to come to life during a not too far off unbroken rise in everything. It will get tested at some point and the sooner that happens the shakier it'll be.

Lots of people love to pose about how theyre 'outside' the system yet sell like fuck the moment a badly translated lie about south Korean exchanges, which no non Korean can access anyway,  appears. Ramp that up to some real sweat and the majority will fold.

The financial crisis was described at the time as a once-in-a-lifetime event by many economists. I believe they are likely correct considering that global financial crisis have occurred less than once per generation in the past.

The current economic cycle is at the point in which some kind of recession is likely in the future however it has been at that point for some time now.

The “wrench” in the economic equation is the buying up massive amounts of government debt as a way to lower long term interest rates. We don’t know how the unwinding of this stimulus will affect the economy or if this will be used in future recessions successfully.

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In regards to how the price of bitcoin will be affected by a global recession, this depends on a number of things.

There is decent evidence that last years run up in price was largely driven by hedge funds and similar institutions, and many of these funds still have large holdings today. If these funds are facing withdrawal requests, they may sell some of their coins to pay these withdrawals. If there is a deep economic recession, many hedge funds will likely face a lot of withdrawal requests— this is actually what caused Madeoff (or however you spell his name) was exposed, he was facing more withdrawal requests than he could handle because everyone was selling nearly every financial asset.

If the recession is more mild, investors may go to crypto as a hedge against inflation that is risked when interest rates are lowered to combat the recession and spur economic growth. Citizens of countries whose economies are not based on dollars may also flock to bitcoin to prevent being affected by a deviation of their local currency.

I think there's still a big chasm between BTC and "safe haven" for most people. As a result, in a major economic contraction, it's hard to see why BTC would benefit. Recession is a time for investors and businesses to de-risk and unwind speculative positions. It's a time to think about capital preservation. It's not the time to pour capital into speculative markets.

I would probably mostly agree with Pharmacist here. I did do a little bit of research to try to determine the narrative that is calling for a global recession. My references are at the bottom, but the narrative ranges from fears of any global tightening (aka rising interest rates) putting too much pressure on the global 247 trillion dollar debt burden, which includes massive consumer debt (1).

CNBC warns of global growth slowing combined with trade tensions putting a strain on the global economy, citing in particular the latest trade deals and negotiations by the US. (2)

Washington Post addresses the lack of real change in the banking space after the last mortgage meltdown in the US, combined with increasing deregulation, increasing risk of large-scale cyber attacks, and a lack of good crisis-management systems. (3)

Highly cited Economist article warns that although the US had a good year in 2017 and so far a good year in 2018, which has had a ripple effect across the global economy, if growth slows as the US implements tightening (increase in interest rates), that could start a global downturn, especially in combination with the trade deals Trump has completed and is currently negotiating. (4)

So in essence, the narrative is that the "good times can't last", and I believe it is coupled with (or perhaps based on) fear about what Trump will do next (5), especially if the midterms go to the Republicans and he has the next two years with a favorable Congress and a conservative Supreme Court. Whatever you believe about the US, whether you like it or not, at the moment, the US does have a big impact on the global economy, so really, your belief about if a global recession is coming has quite a bit to do with whether you think the US (or Trump, if you rather) is moving in a direction that will help or hurt the economy.

To wind up, I couldn't really tell you which way I think the Bitcoin market would go if we experienced a global recession. I think this new generation probably doesn't place as much stock in gold and silver as previous generations, and perhaps may feel like crypto is their "recession savior" (as sort of a anti-establishment move). On the other hand, I could also see people saying, "so THIS is why grandpa always told me to buy gold and silver".

So I voted "largely unaffected" as my statement of indecision.


(1) https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1021696/global-recession-financial-crash-economic-crisis-great-depression
(2) https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/02/global-recession-risk-has-significantly-increased-strategist-warns.html
(3) https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/theworldpost/wp/218/10/09/recession/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.133bbcb5cd79
(4) https://www.economist.com/leaders/2018/10/11/the-next-recession (alternative summary for those without access to the economist): https://www.marketplace.org/2018/10/19/world/economist-warns-coming-recession-its-world-economy-report
(5) https://www.afr.com/markets/markets-could-trigger-the-next-global-recession-pimco-20181016-h16owx

This is really a big possibility, if the recession really hits us hard we will see traditional assets such as real-estate and stocks decline in value and it will be tempting to people especially the whales in the community to start taking advantage of the cheaper prices. Owning a piece of land at a cheaper price would be a great investment to anyone after we see the market starts to recover. The downside to this is we will see whales cashing out big from the cryptocurrency market thus affecting the prices negatively overall. For me this could just be a short-term problem as people coming from the traditional investments might do the same to the cryptocurrency market, and if they see these cryptos having an attractive price they might also buy and hold them until they can profit from it in the future.

What do you mean we just got done recovering from the 2008 disaster? do you actually believe that doubling the US debt from 10 to 20 trillion in 10 years, creating trillions of dollars out of thin air to pump the stock markets and delay a deflation/depression is a recovery? Do you think that quantitive easing was some sort of actual solution to the US economic problems?  The only thing that has happened since 2008 is an unbelievably costly 10 year delay that has actually made the long term situation far worse. Unfixable, actually.

In my opinion the cats out of the bag, anybody and everybody saw what a bitcoin pump can do, whereas before most were either clueless or too skeptical. When the next pump occurs far more people will be joining in so the sky's the limit how high it could go. Combined with stock market and real estate collapsing values, it could very well make Mcafee's prediction of half a million per btc come true.

I’m afraid that when it comes to predictions I always throw emotion-related answers. Why wouldn’t I, I’m an optimistic or worse a fanatical person who values my own trust than databases.

I'm no stock marketers and have no involvement whatsoever, and doesn't plan to do it in the future. Voted that bitcoin will go up and might soon enter a bullish market as it will always be after any scenario of a downtrend.

The stock market is manipulated and it sucks.

In that case if the stock market crash in the near future why the investors look for another alternative to invest which is most likely the crypto currencies for now right.

I think that the next recession will cause the prices to move much further to new all time high which maybe enough to hit $100K in couple of years .Not a good price predictor just expressed my opinion.

Most people are predicting a stock market crash soon. Stocks are HIGHLY overvalued right now. The stock market is nearly as overvalued right now as it was when dotcom burst (in stock vs gdp charts). Also, while it may seems like the great recession was not that long ago, recession happen regularly. This is actually the longest period of nonstop economic growth the US has ever had, so yes the US at least is very due for a recession. Add to that for the past two years since Trump took over the US has vastly expanded how much money its borrowing which is likely propping up the economy right now, with annual deficits about to hit a trillion dollars in the US to prop up the economy its only a matter of time before it crashes down, especially when you've got Trump's trade wars playing havoc with industries and global trade. Also they recently removed the regulations put in place to try to prevent the things that caused the last recession in the first place, so there's that too.

The recession will very likely be bad because the US has expanded our annual deficits so much under Trump that we're gonna already be close to what we were spending to dig ourselves out of the great recession before the next one even hits, which pretty much spells disaster for the economy, and when the US economy sinks the global economy sinks for the most part. So stocks are ready to bust and the economy is riding high on borrowed money alone. Most analysts expect a stock crash and recession in the next two years, which should line up perfectly with the next bitcoin bull run.

I am looking at the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and the SP 500 charts and it looks like we might of hit a failed high this year and might be going down, however unless we break the lows that formed in Feb 2018, then we can't jump to the conclusion of a recession just yet.

If you ever follow the big media giants like CNBC or Bloomberg, basically whenever the Dow Jones goes down around 500 points or so, people are pointing at another recession. They were even saying this in 2010-2011 or so and everybody was expecting a double dip recession, however it never happened. And the years following it was the same story. All the bears were waiting for a recession but its been almost 10 years and still hasn't happened.

Regarding the BTC price its very difficult to say. Is BTC considered a safe haven like Gold? If so then its very bullish. However you need to realize that BTC isn't exactly risk-off investment like Gold, its very volatile and holding BTC might be prone to higher swings in price than a global recession.

However since BTC wasn't around when the last recession hit, its very difficult to say.