It has been 10 years since the 2008 financial crisis and there are a number of financial experts out there predicting doom and gloom to hit the financial world this year. To be fair, every new year brings new crazy predictions, so, although I am not reading too much into it, It did get me thinking - how would bitcoin hold up during a financial crisis.
We know gold is able to withstand a crisis, but with the price of gold very much being controlled nowadays, it might not be a good idea to use them as a comparison.
Interested to know peoples thoughts on the matter, what do you think would happen to bitcoin during a financial crisis?
First, those prognosticators making those statements do so every year, and the more outlandish the claim of catastrophe, the more eyeballs and clicks they get because fear sells attention, and attention generates revenue. So doom and gloom should be taken with a grain of salt. It's much more noteworthy when economists issue warnings because it's supported by research and not designed to sell attention or generate revenue, but to inspire policy.
Second, Bitcoin has very little utility, so it's value comes from speculation, or the mass perception that someone in the future will value the coins more than you did when you purchased them and you will therefore be able to sell them at a profit. Because the value is made up primarily of speculators, the wealth poured into sustaining the price comes from people who feel financially secure and able to risk losing the investment. Essentially, the confidence created by the current robust economy creates the confidence for people to speculate. In an economic downturn, confidence will disappear and people will not tolerate such risky asset holdings any longer, so all assets supported by speculators and risk-takers will suffer greatly. The riskier the asset, the more it will decline in price. As the king of speculative assets, I expect in an economic downturn that crypto will suffer outsized losses to things with inherent value, like stock equities and assets that generate income like real estate or REITs.
In short, everything will go down in value, but crypto will fall harder.