How does this always happen when this is the first time it's halved?
YOU ARE AN IDIOT!
Topic: Huge difficulty spike after Halving -- coincidence? - page 2. (Read 5821 times)
YOU ARE AN IDIOT!
How does this always happen when this is the first time it's halved?
How many times has it NOT happened?
The increase in difficulty started before the halving. The halving was supposed to be at 1pm, and it got pushed up 3 hours overnight.
I don't think it's ASICs, it's people turning on their dusty miners for a shot at history.
Many people will continue mining in spite of non-profitability. Some do it because they believe in bitcoin, others because they believe bitcoin price will rise and justify their actions (this is actually wrong because they could instead just buy some bitcoin if they think price will rise). Meanwhile, on the price side of things, you can really only expect it to rise at most at a rate that would eat through the order book at half the average volume.
I don't think it's ASICs, it's people turning on their dusty miners for a shot at history.
Many people will continue mining in spite of non-profitability. Some do it because they believe in bitcoin, others because they believe bitcoin price will rise and justify their actions (this is actually wrong because they could instead just buy some bitcoin if they think price will rise). Meanwhile, on the price side of things, you can really only expect it to rise at most at a rate that would eat through the order book at half the average volume.
I do both, I mine and I buy because I know BTC will rise in price... better than buying stock.. IMO...
/Seriously, Do you really think a sufficient number of miners care much about finding the last 50btc block to affect hashrate in any visible way ? It has very little historical value, the chance of finding is extremely small, It require that you mine Solo, 90%+ of miners don't. GPU mining is still profitable for many, but it as not profitable enough to restart a mining farm for less than a day.
The increase in difficulty started before the halving. The halving was supposed to be at 1pm, and it got pushed up 3 hours overnight.
I don't think it's ASICs, it's people turning on their dusty miners for a shot at history.
Many people will continue mining in spite of non-profitability. Some do it because they believe in bitcoin, others because they believe bitcoin price will rise and justify their actions (this is actually wrong because they could instead just buy some bitcoin if they think price will rise). Meanwhile, on the price side of things, you can really only expect it to rise at most at a rate that would eat through the order book at half the average volume.
I don't think it's ASICs, it's people turning on their dusty miners for a shot at history.
Many people will continue mining in spite of non-profitability. Some do it because they believe in bitcoin, others because they believe bitcoin price will rise and justify their actions (this is actually wrong because they could instead just buy some bitcoin if they think price will rise). Meanwhile, on the price side of things, you can really only expect it to rise at most at a rate that would eat through the order book at half the average volume.
1. If it were just BTCguild's luck, it should be leveling off at some point. Instead, the estimated next difficulty just keeps going up.
2. If it were just ex-miners firing up their rigs for old times sake/to find the last 50BTC block, they must be leaving them on for a while longer.
3. As for "some people don't realize GPU mining isn't profitable anymore", that wouldn't explain an INCREASE in hashing power. It would only explain hashing power staying the same.
So we still don't have the answer.
2. If it were just ex-miners firing up their rigs for old times sake/to find the last 50BTC block, they must be leaving them on for a while longer.
3. As for "some people don't realize GPU mining isn't profitable anymore", that wouldn't explain an INCREASE in hashing power. It would only explain hashing power staying the same.
So we still don't have the answer.
I have really cheap energy 0.07Kw/h and I will continue mining.. my goal is long LONG term so I dont care about halving.. I care about hoarding...but eventually, when 2Ghash make less than .20 BTC per day, then I might upgrade to sopmething different...
So you're the cause of the spike ? Good to know.Seriously, There was ~18 block in the time it's supposed to take for 9, this could be an extra ~20ghs in a relatively small time span.
If you look at blockchain.info before the reward halving, you can see where a lot of that spike came from. Bitminter and BTC Guild both had especially nice runs of luck for about 12 hours preceeding the change. BTC Guild's luck alone would have been interpreted as a ~2-2.5 TH/s increase in overall network speed for those 12 hours, and even a few hours after.
I'd say it's significant. Assuming ASIC-testing.
I have free power.. Friend of mine hosts my rigs at his apartment.
This always happens when the reward halves... so far at least.
FTW
Anyone that doesn't frequent these forums probably doesn't realize that GPU mining is not profitable anymore.
It might take a month or so for people to figure it out and sell their rig or mine ALT coins instead.
And of course there are the free power people, who I imagine will continue GPU mining until their GPUs die. But, I can't imagine there's a whole lot of these types.
It might take a month or so for people to figure it out and sell their rig or mine ALT coins instead.
And of course there are the free power people, who I imagine will continue GPU mining until their GPUs die. But, I can't imagine there's a whole lot of these types.
How does this always happen when this is the first time it's halved?
This always happens when the reward halves... so far at least.
I laughed.
This always happens when the reward halves... so far at least.
That fact that a lot of people powered up their rigs to specifically try and mine blocks #209999 & #210000 could also have had a part in this.
I think this is what happened... Lots of people turned on to finish the 50BTC blocks...
This always happens after a difficulty change. Check back in a few days.
I am well aware of what happens after a difficulty change; I've been mining Bitcoins since May 2011
We didn't just have a diff change though. Yesterday's numbers were perfectly normal.
That fact that a lot of people powered up their rigs to specifically try and mine blocks #209999 & #210000 could also have had a part in this.
This always happens after a difficulty change. Check back in a few days.
The short term network hashrate is always volatile. A change of 3TH/s, 5TH/s, or even 10TH/s isn't particularly meaningful.
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png
Now if over the next 3 days the 3 day moving average increases by more than say ~2TH/s you might have something other than just noise.
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png
Now if over the next 3 days the 3 day moving average increases by more than say ~2TH/s you might have something other than just noise.
I don't know... that 3-day moving average line seems to be spiking upward. Unless it crashes down REAL fast in the next half-day, we're looking at an increase of network hashing power.
This is especially strange because I expected the total TH/s to slow down a bit, if anything.
Re: Variance. True.
But.
FPGA shipments have been completed. Anyone purchasing GPU's right now is not acting rationally.
Turning on already purchased GPU to offset heating bills is plausible. I would be surprised if such practice would account for more than 1 TH.
A sustained multi TH increase would be very odd given the environment.
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