The short term network hashrate is always volatile. A change of 3TH/s, 5TH/s, or even 10TH/s isn't particularly meaningful.
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png
Now if over the next 3 days the 3 day moving average increases by more than say ~2TH/s you might have something other than just noise.
Topic: Huge difficulty spike after Halving -- coincidence? - page 3. (Read 5821 times)
You're really looking at a 3 block window and claiming ASICs? Really?
It's not a 3 block window.
At first, I was a bit confused -- I thought "of course the estimate is off, the difficulty just reset" but it DIDN'T JUST RESET -- we just had a block halving.
A block reward halving shouldn't affect the calculation of block/hour and so forth.
Right?
Yes you are correct. This thread is spooky, with me agreeing with you so much.
You're really looking at a 3 block window and claiming ASICs? Really?
It's not a 3 block window.
At first, I was a bit confused -- I thought "of course the estimate is off, the difficulty just reset" but it DIDN'T JUST RESET -- we just had a block halving.
A block reward halving shouldn't affect the calculation of block/hour and so forth.
Right?
It's possible there are errors in reporting hash rate, if the reward is factored in anywhere in the calculation.
You're really looking at a 3 block window and claiming ASICs? Really?
You're a blast from the past man, same old stuff too.
However in this case I'm actually kinda on board with your notions. We're a number of hours ahead of schedule for block halving, and this is a big spike.
However I'm gonna remain calm, and suggest that's just the way the cookie has crumbled. blockchain.info (I know it only guesses at block origins) shows an unusual number of quick blocks, 21009 was found in 2 minutes by BTC guild, 21010 was found in 3 minutes after that by BTC guild (the pools hashrate has remained fairly constant). The unknowns have increased but that could be attributable to people wanting in on the last 50 blocks going solo.
So for now, I'm just gonna say variance.
However in this case I'm actually kinda on board with your notions. We're a number of hours ahead of schedule for block halving, and this is a big spike.
However I'm gonna remain calm, and suggest that's just the way the cookie has crumbled. blockchain.info (I know it only guesses at block origins) shows an unusual number of quick blocks, 21009 was found in 2 minutes by BTC guild, 21010 was found in 3 minutes after that by BTC guild (the pools hashrate has remained fairly constant). The unknowns have increased but that could be attributable to people wanting in on the last 50 blocks going solo.
So for now, I'm just gonna say variance.
Blocks 210003
Total BTC 10.500M
Difficulty 3438909
Estimated 3496486 in 1677 blks
Network total 30.949 Thash/s
Blocks/hour 7.54 / 477 s
I know, variance... but 3 Thash/S is quite a bit to write off as variance, especially since a FEW people at least (maybe quite a few?) are shutting off their GPU rigs this morning.
I've been checking
http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/
a lot lately, with this halving coming up (and now past us).
I must say I was shocked at what I saw this morning -- it's as if someone was waiting until after the halving to turn on his ASIC array!
Maybe one of the companies is shipping ASICs?
Total BTC 10.500M
Difficulty 3438909
Estimated 3496486 in 1677 blks
Network total 30.949 Thash/s
Blocks/hour 7.54 / 477 s
I know, variance... but 3 Thash/S is quite a bit to write off as variance, especially since a FEW people at least (maybe quite a few?) are shutting off their GPU rigs this morning.
I've been checking
http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/
a lot lately, with this halving coming up (and now past us).
I must say I was shocked at what I saw this morning -- it's as if someone was waiting until after the halving to turn on his ASIC array!
Maybe one of the companies is shipping ASICs?
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