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Topic: HUGE PLUMMET TOMORROW! - page 8. (Read 26246 times)

member
Activity: 106
Merit: 10
February 11, 2014, 12:20:52 PM
hero member
Activity: 1470
Merit: 504
February 11, 2014, 12:19:53 PM
So lets look at our current situation...

This is fact:
- Gox is insolvent ever since the FBI grabs 9 million USD.

Not a fact. This belongs under speculation. They also didn't grab 9M USD but 5M if I remember correctly. I doubt that would make them insolvent.

Quote
- Gox price hovers far above other exchanges for USD withdrawal issues related to insolvency.
- Gox offers Gox Bux for withdrawals instead of USD.
- Gox halts all BTC withdrawals claiming a bug in the BTC protocol.
- Gox admits to knowing about the problem since 2011.
- Gox somehow re-enables USD withdrawals despite previous insolvency.
- Gox exchange prices plummet.

This is speculation:
- Gox was the source of the coins unloaded on other exchanges in an effort to gain fiat liquidity.
- Gox is allowing USD withdrawals because they expect the price to fall on their exchange as people cash out in fiat
- Gox can profit from the arbitrage as their members will sell BTC for relatively low USD amounts reducing the financial liability for Gox.
- Gox has no intentions of enabling BTC withdrawals but will allow users to cash out in fiat.
- Gox is using the Bitcoin protocol as a scapegoat to scam it's members by selling their coins at a profit through arbitrage.

Some additional info:
This "bug" is not actually a bug but rather a caveat that the exchanges are well aware of and have already designed their automated payout systems appropriately. The payout systems rely on wallet addresses and confirmations rather than TXID's to prevent this situation.
Gox enabled USD withdrawal the day after the major dumps on other exchanges.

You don't have to agree with my opinions on the speculation but if you look at the well known history and put the pieces together it really looks bad for Gox...

The only thing I agree on is that MtGox is done for, they can only delay the inevitable. But this is something I and I think a big part of the market with me has been very much aware of since June 2013. The only thing that surprises me is how long MtGox has been able to keep being in business, I actually expected their lights to go out somewhere last year. I would be really surprised if they survive this year as well. But for me personally MtGox is already dead and has been for quite some time.

You're right on the $5 million USD. I was mistaken... It did make them insolvent, however. They had to disable USD withdrawal because the accounts that were seized were used for customer withdrawals according to the FBI warrant used to appropriate the accounts.

I agree with you that the death of Gox has been priced into the market sentiment; that doesn't mean Gox won't unload tens of thousands of BTC on other exchanges as they go out.
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1070
February 11, 2014, 12:12:38 PM
It seems that the mutated transactions attack is intensifying, and is not limited to MtGox, but spread to the whole network.
May I ask how could someone know in advance that the price is going to drop so sharply (on BTC-E at least), and because of this attack?
If this attack continues / worsens, then maybe the OP knows who is perpetrating it, or even he may be involved.

Ignored
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 250
February 11, 2014, 12:09:18 PM
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1000
February 11, 2014, 11:59:10 AM
So lets look at our current situation...

This is fact:
- Gox is insolvent ever since the FBI grabs 9 million USD.

Not a fact. This belongs under speculation. They also didn't grab 9M USD but 5M if I remember correctly. I doubt that would make them insolvent.

Quote
- Gox price hovers far above other exchanges for USD withdrawal issues related to insolvency.
- Gox offers Gox Bux for withdrawals instead of USD.
- Gox halts all BTC withdrawals claiming a bug in the BTC protocol.
- Gox admits to knowing about the problem since 2011.
- Gox somehow re-enables USD withdrawals despite previous insolvency.
- Gox exchange prices plummet.

This is speculation:
- Gox was the source of the coins unloaded on other exchanges in an effort to gain fiat liquidity.
- Gox is allowing USD withdrawals because they expect the price to fall on their exchange as people cash out in fiat
- Gox can profit from the arbitrage as their members will sell BTC for relatively low USD amounts reducing the financial liability for Gox.
- Gox has no intentions of enabling BTC withdrawals but will allow users to cash out in fiat.
- Gox is using the Bitcoin protocol as a scapegoat to scam it's members by selling their coins at a profit through arbitrage.

Some additional info:
This "bug" is not actually a bug but rather a caveat that the exchanges are well aware of and have already designed their automated payout systems appropriately. The payout systems rely on wallet addresses and confirmations rather than TXID's to prevent this situation.
Gox enabled USD withdrawal the day after the major dumps on other exchanges.

You don't have to agree with my opinions on the speculation but if you look at the well known history and put the pieces together it really looks bad for Gox...

The only thing I agree on is that MtGox is done for, they can only delay the inevitable. But this is something I and I think a big part of the market with me has been very much aware of since June 2013. The only thing that surprises me is how long MtGox has been able to keep being in business, I actually expected their lights to go out somewhere last year. I would be really surprised if they survive this year as well. But for me personally MtGox is already dead and has been for quite some time.
legendary
Activity: 1456
Merit: 1001
This is the land of wolves now & you're not a wolf
February 11, 2014, 11:53:49 AM
KAHRU WILL SHOW NO MERCY

KAHRU fucked off a long time ago, I saw it with my own two eyes...



That van was full of bitcoins
hero member
Activity: 1470
Merit: 504
February 11, 2014, 11:48:09 AM
So after reading over his comments I believe something's afoul. Not with the OP; but with the circumstances surrounding this market.

Unfortunately the OP is asking for payment for further information; that's not a donation and even though a donation may very well be deserved in this case there's a major difference between the two. It's amazing that he accurately predicted an unpredictable event and also predicted that it would be Gox responsible for igniting it. Nobody expected that to play out in this manner and in this moment so soon...

So he has credibility in his statements...
That's complete nonsense.

Multiple sources confirmed Monday would be a tough day
The price restored within 24 hours despite all the bad news

Bitcoin is getting stronger by the day.

It's not a factor of how quickly the price restored; it's the $100 claim. Obviously the price will correct itself insanely quickly in that type of arbitrage situation... The recovery was within a matter of minutes.

I wouldn't have thought $100 was a realistic number. That type of movement is unprecedented...

It's nonsense to think that type of trading is normal on a tough day...

Oh come on, someone simply dumped too many coins with a market order in a thin bid side on one exchange. Mistakes like that can happen sometimes especially with all those bots running wild. The OP claimed that MtGox would halt all trading indefinitely and that that would cause the price to drop to $100. That didn't even happen at all, MtGox just made up some crazy FUD about a bug in the bitcoin protocol and people started panicking like crazy. The price also didn't really drop to $100, a bot or a leveraged long just went awfully wrong on BTC-e. So, to summarize, OP is full of shit and just made a lucky guess about a huge plummet. I wouldn't even say it was lucky, a drop was to be expected if MtGox would come out and state that they would keep halting BTC withdrawals. And it wouldn't be a bad bet to make that MtGox would not resume BTC withdrawals this soon.

So lets look at our current situation...

This is fact:
- Gox is insolvent ever since the FBI grabbed 9 million USD.
- Gox price hovers far above other exchanges for USD withdrawal issues related to insolvency.
- Gox offers Gox Bux for withdrawals instead of USD.
- Gox halts all BTC withdrawals claiming a bug in the BTC protocol.
- Gox admits to knowing about the problem since 2011.
- Gox somehow re-enables USD withdrawals despite previous insolvency.
- Gox exchange prices plummet.

This is speculation:
- Gox was the source of the coins unloaded on other exchanges in an effort to gain fiat liquidity.
- Gox is allowing USD withdrawals because they expect the price to fall on their exchange as people cash out in fiat
- Gox can profit from the arbitrage as their members will sell BTC for relatively low USD amounts reducing the financial liability for Gox.
- Gox has no intentions of enabling BTC withdrawals but will allow users to cash out in fiat.
- Gox is using the Bitcoin protocol as a scapegoat to scam it's members by selling their coins at a profit through arbitrage.

Some additional info:
This "bug" is not actually a bug but rather a caveat that the exchanges are well aware of and have already designed their automated payout systems appropriately. The payout systems rely on wallet addresses and confirmations rather than TXID's to prevent this situation.
Gox enabled USD withdrawal the day after the major dumps on other exchanges.

You don't have to agree with my opinions on the speculation but if you look at the well known history and put the pieces together it really looks bad for Gox...
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1019
February 11, 2014, 11:34:08 AM
It seems that the mutated transactions attack is intensifying, and is not limited to MtGox, but spread to the whole network.
May I ask how could someone know in advance that the price is going to drop so sharply (on BTC-E at least), and because of this attack?
If this attack continues / worsens, then maybe the OP knows who is perpetrating it, or even he may be involved.

You might want to back up those claims with some arguments or proof you know. I can't believe you people take the OP seriously... I guess this is how all the crazy conspiracy theories get out into the world.

Quote
http://www.coindesk.com/gavin-andresen-jeff-garzik-mt-gox-wrong-bitcoin-isnt-broken/

Bitcoin core developers Jeff Garzik and Gavin Andresen have responded to Mt. Gox’s claims that there is a flaw in the Bitcoin software.

Mt. Gox issued a statement this morning (GMT), revealing it had suspended bitcoin withdrawals indefinitely due to a previously known technical issue with its custom wallet implementation of the Bitcoin core protocol.

Garzik stressed that Mt. Gox seems to be attempting to shift the blame for its recent failings onto Bitcoin and its developers.

“First and foremost, bitcoin is not broken. There is no fundamental flaw in bitcoin,” said Garzik.


hero member
Activity: 1470
Merit: 504
February 11, 2014, 11:23:18 AM
So after reading over his comments I believe something's afoul. Not with the OP; but with the circumstances surrounding this market.

Unfortunately the OP is asking for payment for further information; that's not a donation and even though a donation may very well be deserved in this case there's a major difference between the two. It's amazing that he accurately predicted an unpredictable event and also predicted that it would be Gox responsible for igniting it. Nobody expected that to play out in this manner and in this moment so soon...

So he has credibility in his statements...
That's complete nonsense.

Multiple sources confirmed Monday would be a tough day
The price restored within 24 hours despite all the bad news

Bitcoin is getting stronger by the day.

It's not a factor of how quickly the price restored; it's the $100 claim. Obviously the price will correct itself insanely quickly in that type of arbitrage situation... The recovery was within a matter of minutes.

I wouldn't have thought $100 was a realistic number. That type of movement is unprecedented...

It's nonsense to think that type of trading is normal on a tough day...

it was probably someone missclicking

winklevoss twins can go and make the price of bitcoin $0.001 for a few seconds

does that mean bitcoin is valued at $0.001? no it doesnt

I agree but you don't see them doing it. That's the point of this... Why?

I'm not worried about a collapse; I don't think it was a mis-click; it was more like a "self destruct."
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1000
February 11, 2014, 11:16:56 AM
It seems that the mutated transactions attack is intensifying, and is not limited to MtGox, but spread to the whole network.
May I ask how could someone know in advance that the price is going to drop so sharply (on BTC-E at least), and because of this attack?
If this attack continues / worsens, then maybe the OP knows who is perpetrating it, or even he may be involved.

You might want to back up those claims with some arguments or proof you know. I can't believe you people take the OP seriously... I guess this is how all the crazy conspiracy theories get out into the world.
hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 1000
February 11, 2014, 11:13:12 AM

Interesting.

I found the following link in the thread. The link leads to a NSA journal paper from 1996, a study into making Cryptographic Cash:

http://groups.csail.mit.edu/mac/classes/6.805/articles/money/nsamint/nsamint.htm
legendary
Activity: 2170
Merit: 1094
February 11, 2014, 11:10:27 AM
It seems that the mutated transactions attack is intensifying, and is not limited to MtGox, but spread to the whole network.
May I ask how could someone know in advance that the price is going to drop so sharply (on BTC-E at least), and because of this attack?
If this attack continues / worsens, then maybe the OP knows who is perpetrating it, or even he may be involved.
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1000
February 11, 2014, 11:10:13 AM
So after reading over his comments I believe something's afoul. Not with the OP; but with the circumstances surrounding this market.

Unfortunately the OP is asking for payment for further information; that's not a donation and even though a donation may very well be deserved in this case there's a major difference between the two. It's amazing that he accurately predicted an unpredictable event and also predicted that it would be Gox responsible for igniting it. Nobody expected that to play out in this manner and in this moment so soon...

So he has credibility in his statements...
That's complete nonsense.

Multiple sources confirmed Monday would be a tough day
The price restored within 24 hours despite all the bad news

Bitcoin is getting stronger by the day.

It's not a factor of how quickly the price restored; it's the $100 claim. Obviously the price will correct itself insanely quickly in that type of arbitrage situation... The recovery was within a matter of minutes.

I wouldn't have thought $100 was a realistic number. That type of movement is unprecedented...

It's nonsense to think that type of trading is normal on a tough day...

Oh come on, someone simply dumped too many coins with a market order in a thin bid side on one exchange. Mistakes like that can happen sometimes especially with all those bots running wild. The OP claimed that MtGox would halt all trading indefinitely and that that would cause the price to drop to $100. That didn't even happen at all, MtGox just made up some crazy FUD about a bug in the bitcoin protocol and people started panicking like crazy. The price also didn't really drop to $100, a bot or a leveraged long just went awfully wrong on BTC-e. So, to summarize, OP is full of shit and just made a lucky guess about a huge plummet. I wouldn't even say it was lucky, a drop was to be expected if MtGox would come out and state that they would keep halting BTC withdrawals. And it wouldn't be a bad bet to make that MtGox would not resume BTC withdrawals this soon.
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 1035
February 11, 2014, 11:02:40 AM
So after reading over his comments I believe something's afoul. Not with the OP; but with the circumstances surrounding this market.

Unfortunately the OP is asking for payment for further information; that's not a donation and even though a donation may very well be deserved in this case there's a major difference between the two. It's amazing that he accurately predicted an unpredictable event and also predicted that it would be Gox responsible for igniting it. Nobody expected that to play out in this manner and in this moment so soon...

So he has credibility in his statements...
That's complete nonsense.

Multiple sources confirmed Monday would be a tough day
The price restored within 24 hours despite all the bad news

Bitcoin is getting stronger by the day.

It's not a factor of how quickly the price restored; it's the $100 claim. Obviously the price will correct itself insanely quickly in that type of arbitrage situation... The recovery was within a matter of minutes.

I wouldn't have thought $100 was a realistic number. That type of movement is unprecedented...

It's nonsense to think that type of trading is normal on a tough day...

it was probably someone missclicking

winklevoss twins can go and make the price of bitcoin $0.001 for a few seconds

does that mean bitcoin is valued at $0.001? no it doesnt
hero member
Activity: 1470
Merit: 504
February 11, 2014, 10:54:09 AM
So after reading over his comments I believe something's afoul. Not with the OP; but with the circumstances surrounding this market.

Unfortunately the OP is asking for payment for further information; that's not a donation and even though a donation may very well be deserved in this case there's a major difference between the two. It's amazing that he accurately predicted an unpredictable event and also predicted that it would be Gox responsible for igniting it. Nobody expected that to play out in this manner and in this moment so soon...

So he has credibility in his statements...
That's complete nonsense.

Multiple sources confirmed Monday would be a tough day
The price restored within 24 hours despite all the bad news

Bitcoin is getting stronger by the day.

It's not a factor of how quickly the price restored; it's the $100 claim. Obviously the price will correct itself insanely quickly in that type of arbitrage situation... The recovery was within a matter of minutes.

I wouldn't have thought $100 was a realistic number. That type of movement is unprecedented...

It's nonsense to think that type of trading is normal on a tough day...
sr. member
Activity: 644
Merit: 250
February 11, 2014, 10:44:33 AM
KARHU will destroy us all !!!!11
member
Activity: 106
Merit: 10
February 11, 2014, 10:40:21 AM
KAHRU WILL SHOW NO MERCY

KAHRU fucked off a long time ago, I saw it with my own two eyes...

legendary
Activity: 2212
Merit: 1008
February 11, 2014, 10:34:49 AM
KAHRU WILL SHOW NO MERCY
newbie
Activity: 20
Merit: 0
February 11, 2014, 09:58:12 AM
BitcoinSteve hath spoken!

SELL SELL SELL!

YOU ALL SHALL SEE TOMORROW!

Anytime now...
hero member
Activity: 854
Merit: 510
February 11, 2014, 04:32:06 AM
So after reading over his comments I believe something's afoul. Not with the OP; but with the circumstances surrounding this market.

Unfortunately the OP is asking for payment for further information; that's not a donation and even though a donation may very well be deserved in this case there's a major difference between the two. It's amazing that he accurately predicted an unpredictable event and also predicted that it would be Gox responsible for igniting it. Nobody expected that to play out in this manner and in this moment so soon...

So he has credibility in his statements...
That's complete nonsense.

Multiple sources confirmed Monday would be a tough day
The price restored within 24 hours despite all the bad news

Bitcoin is getting stronger by the day.

Sanity will get you nowhere on this thread.   Pretty everyone knew something would happen on Monday, but I guess this thread proves a few didn't.   
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