If you want to think about realistic prices, first think about the mining subsidy (currently 3600 coins created per day). Then compare the subsidy's USD value to the size of the bitcoin economy and demand for bitcoin.
3600 * 235 = $846,000
846,000 seems like a reasonably small number compared to the total trade volume.
When people start talking about $20,000 bitcoin valuations, even in the next reward era where 1800 coins are created per day, you have to wonder if they've done the math.
1800 * 20,000 = $36,000,000 per day bitcoin mining industry. How large does the bitcoin economy have to be where $36,000,000 (daily) is a reasonably small number compared to it?
I'm settling into the view that we need to wait several more halvings before such valuations are possible to be maintained. (Of course, a brief spike can go unimaginably high)
You are talking of a 50X increase in the bitcoin demand in the following years.... I think this isn' unrealistic at all...
That's certainly possible. I'm trying to be extremely conservative.
Let's look at how demand grew from 2012 to 2015. In 2012, bitcoin went sideways at $5 with a daily inflation in USD of around $72,000 per day. (3600*2*$5 = $36,000 per day). (Multiplied by two because the block reward was double.)
Now bitcoin goes sideways with a daily inflation in USD of around $846,000 per day. $846,000/$36,000 = 23.5x more daily demand after three years.
To be conservative, we should guess that the demand will grow more slowly now that bitcoin is bigger. Maybe it will "only" go up 11x in the next six years. 846,000 * 11 = $9,306,000 worth of demand per day. Block reward will be 900 bitcoins per day after two halvings.
$9,306,000 / 900 = $10,340 per bitcoin in 2021
With bubbles and crashes along the way. A brief spike to $20,000 or $50,000 before 2021 wouldn't be terribly surprising.
