Topic: I am planning to buy 1 BTC. Do I need to wait few more days for a price fall? - page 6. (Read 1165 times)

See last 30 days trade volume:

https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/30d?c=e&t=b

More than 200k BTC are traded per day. That's more than $1.7 billion per day. Throwing away $20 million to pump the price won't change it much. And I doubt the miners would or could do this often. At least many miners would need to combine their money to buy Bitcoins, but then it would be more profitable for the miners who don't collaborate, so it won't happen.

The market cap is a bad metric for cryptocurrencies in general and completely irrelevant in this case.
Take a look at the daily volume of the big Bitcoin exchanges. Of the outstanding ~16.5M BTC (from
which 4-5M BTC are lost irretrievably) not even a fraction is traded on the exchanges and therefore
revelant for price discovery.

E.g. Bitstamp + GDAX (two of the biggest exchanges) have a combined trading volume of
roughly 40k BTC for the BTC/USD pair every 24 hours on average (of course this increases during
periods of high volatility). This is already a low number compared to the outstanding Bitcoins, but
it is actually even less, because a trade of 1 BTC is counted as a buy as well as a sell simultaneously.
Besides, the same coins are traded over and over again by traders and bots.

I´d argue that basically ~100k BTC are relevant for the actual price discovery while the remaining
coins are either lost irretrievably or are stored in cold storage, custodial solutions and similar stuff.

Can you now see why not much money is needed to maintain a certain price?
For merely 10-20M $ (an irrelevant amount for miners) you can easily prop up the price by 500-1000 $
on a single exchange, which obviously affects the rest of the market as well due to arbitrage opportunities.
Keeping the price above a certain level is even less expensive and the miners don´t even need to
inject new capital, because they can simply refrain from selling block rewards.

Keeping up the BTC price is increadibly easy for the miners, especially when they collude to do so,
which is highly likely in my opinion.

We won´t see BTC under 1000 $ / BTC ever again in our lifetime if you ask me.

I don't think you have to wait for a few more days. Now, this very minute is the very best time for you to buy that Btc. Actually it has already gained by 7.60% as i am writing this. But at this current price, you will undeniably still procure profit after hodling for some time. Go. 

Well try to gauge it if you want. Btc isn't steady at a certain range and  there are minor dips happening every now and then. Im my observation, weekends usually give us a good window to buy in. Or wait til we're close to valentines or the chinese newyear since its expected that a lot will cash out then

I will say yes, buying now are good decision while a week later upcoming Chinnese New Year and the price will rising fast. Make buy now and hodl for a month you will get it passive profit.

I think we will not see retracing of Bitcoin price in the coming weeks. That's why it is better to buy it now and just HODL it.

if you have that plan then today is the right time because bitcoin prices are still below the $ 10k price so be sure to buy as much bitcoin as you can. because if you wait for the right time again then that time will be very rare and long needed negative issues again to make the bitcoin fall.

They can be incentivized as much as they want, it doesn't matter. Bitcoin market cap is $146 billion. I don't know how much they have invested or how much they are willing to invest to pump the market, but I still think it is a drop on the ocean. Please explain how else they could pump up the price other than buying bitcoins and how do you come to the conclusion that they have enough money to pump the price.

And if the power costs are higher than the reward, then it is a no-brainer: E.g. electricity costs $1 million per day. Reward is $900k a day. Then they lose $100k per day, if it runs, but you make $0 per day if it is shut down. Of course, it might be not full-on / full-off, they might try to keep running half of it, and if everyone does it, profit still gets positive, but it doesn't matter for the price.

Prices for bitcoin at this time are fluctuating and if honestly difficult to make a prediction on whether it is worth to buy it or not

Thank you for your reply.

Nonetheless I disagree with your view, especially with the bolded part. Miners won´t simply
shut down their operations when it is unprofitable. Combined they have invested hundreds of
millions of $ into mining hardware and other infrastructure.

Let´s imagine a big miner in China with the following properties:
-he owns a few buildings and has signed a lease for several years
-he has bribed the local officials or acquired an actual license
-he has a staff and every staff member has an employment contract
-he has invested 50M $ into mining hardware
-he has invested money into other infrastructure in order to enable a smooth mining operation
...

Do you really think that if mining becomes unprofitable he will simply call it a day? After all it could
only be unprofitable for a short time if the price rises again. He is heavily incentivized to prop
up the price and so is every other miner, who would be in the exact same situation.

In short my claim that the bolded part of your response is wrong is based on the fact that nobody, who
has invested millions of $ into something will just shut down their operations and leave. Instead he would
do everything in his power to make it profitable again, or to ensure the continuation of his business
in other ways (e.g. ordering even more ASICs in order to mine more blocks).

The capital that is needed to keep the BTC price above a certain level is a fraction of
the amount that the miners stand to lose if the Bitcoin price falls below the average cost
of mining a single Bitcoin for a longer time frame.

I don't have to add much to the good answers in the thread you posted, most people think that your argument is not valid, and so do I. Miners would just shut off their equipment if it isn't profitable anymore. This would reduce the global hashrate, so the remaining miners, the ones who are probably heavily invested in hardware, would make more bitcoins per hash, and it would be profitable again. It is a self stabilizing system: the buyer demand dictates the price, but the price dictates the hashrate. The conclusion is that it is possible that it drop to $3k or even lower, if there is not enough demand. All the miner can't prevent it, because they won't buy back millions of bitcoins. And if they would, it would be just a small spike in the price, because there are so many more people and other investors who would sell then their bitcoins. Just a drop on the ocean.

Its market value as of this moment is now starting to move or ro increase and that is already the que. Well it is also a good idea ro wait for more but it will just take your time waiting for it. Investing now will be profitable now that its price is starting to increase and your investment will go along with the increase on

I read that the price might  go up for a few hours or stay the same  but then later on in say 12 hours or longer it  will fall.  And people should sell now and buy in later on to make at least some profit. 

I think that your prediction is extremely unlikely.
If the BTC/USD price would drop to the level that you suggest this would be below
the current average cost of mining a single Bitcoin.

The miners are heavily incentivized to prevent this from happening, because combined
they have invested hundreds of millions of $ into mining hardware, other infrastructure
and stuff like bribes.

I elaborated on this in this thread:
Why the Bitcoin price is not going to fall below a certain price point

We are in the green zone for buying right now for those who are ready to start loading up and fueling up for the next rally. Off the topic, I am still very optimistic that bitcoin will have a pretty nice ride this year. Let us see how the few moments right now from here will go till end of February but for now, it is time to keep buying with any extra cash as no one in this position will definitely regret it in the long run.

Asides low, the same way a market can be overbought is the same way a market can be over sold. Right now, we are in the oversold region and it looks like bitcoin is not ready to go down further than it already had and even if it does, the gap will not be too much from the previous low. So for now, anyone who wants to buy, should just hop in.

You know what rather asking the questions to the forum where you will receive different kinds of answers you should study and find out for yourself as it is your only way to confirm it. As I am reading to the thread you have receive mostly answers that will still left you undecided as a lot of members are saying yes and no at the same time. If you know how to do your own analysis you won't be risking your money on an opinion you got online.

Probably the author of the post has already bought his Bitcoin, but I am sure that even now when someone is hesitating whether to invest into BTC or not, he should know: better buy it now!

you need to buy already because the price started to grow up a little, many people missed the opportunity to buy bitcoin for 6k

I think first several days of Februaty was the right time to buy Bitcoins and altcoins for fiat. Now it seems crypto is ready to go up.

Its market value is already low. I think this is the best time to invest since its price is just starting to recover. Your investment will go along with the increase of uts market value which means that profit will be earned once its price in the market has already recovered. So for now, invest and hold and avoid selling.