I read through this whole thread in the last week, and I had been thinking about making a post here. Accordingly, I am glad that the thread was revived in recent days.
OP's original aspiration of $10K per BTC seems very reachable in the coming year or two, but maybe in the last few days some of our hopes concerning how rapidly the BTC prices are going to get to anywhere near that point have been dashed, somewhat.
Nonetheless, there seems to be so much news on the sidelines concerning a large number of wallstreet type investors who are looking to get into bitcoin. Surely some of these investment guys are buying on the side, and even Second Market claims to have accumulated over 100,000 bitcoins. Nothing like the supposedly 650,000-ish that disappeared from Gox, but a good start.
Part of the current discussion, also is that so many holders do NOT put their BTC into circulation, and accordingly, the BTC market may NOT be liquid enough to accommodate a large amount of capital into the space. Let's say if currently only between 1 and 2 million BTC are in circulation, then if any real good size investor coming into the space would cause prices to double or triple, almost immediately.... which even though as I type BTC prices have been floating between $410 and $430, we all probably realize a fair current value would be between $750 and $850, and with any decent size investor(s) jumping into the space, we easily get to $1600 or $2400 per BTC. That woudl provide only a $20 to $30 Billion market cap, and easily 3-4 times of that would then be the next stage of around $10K per BTC. That $10K per BTC seems very reachable in the next 2 years.
Surely we have quite a bit of speculation where the price will go, and when it will get there b/c I would like to join the elite, as well.
I am NOT that great at trading, and I started buying in November 2013 (not a great time to buy), but I have acquired about 55BTC. at an average price of about $620. I would like to be in the black, but still in the red, and at the moment, I am running out of extra fiat to pump in... so I may NOT be able to accumulate too many more BTC in the near future.
In order to maintain being an elite - one has to be able to hold that stash to the side and NOT to spend into it. Surely early adopters have stashes nearing 1000 BTC and better, and maybe these dips will allow investors to approach that arena. I am hoping that BTC prices will rise rapidly enough that I can begin to live off of my 55BTC... but that would probably require an ability to hold off and for BTC prices to reach at least $20K per BTC in the next 3-4 years... which may be possible. I also may be able to increase my BTC holdings a bit, so accumulating between 50 and 100BTC may allow me to become a baby elite until the price may go up even further than the $20k range.
That is if someone like Gox does NOT steal my coins...
But yes, right now floating around in the $420 territory - seems like a long way off into the future to get into the elite status prices.
Your
"average price is about $620", were you able to buy any at all below $420 for example?
Obviously your main idea is to buy and hold until prices are much higher.
Since you are running low on fiat, you could sell a small amount on rallies (even @ ~$440 for example), and buy back for profits as low as 5 to 10%. That doesn't sound exciting, but the repeated profits add up fast.
Good luck with your exciting journey.
Thanks for the feedback.
I was able to buy some BTC below $420 – but actually I had some banking issues when BTC prices were dropping below $420, and my deposits did NOT come in to my bank on time to be able to buy very much during the below $400 period. I also realized that I did NOT have too much more fiat that I could budget into BTC purchases.
More or less, here are my BTC buying increments over the last two months:
590.70
668.80
595.00
606.16
592.37
569.61
537.20
576.00
545.55
524.00
484.02
462.61
462.99
455.56
408.64
520.00
580.00
678.85
653.00
610.00
623.50
604.08
585.50
550.19
581.93
566.12
517.03
485.92
525.48
482.53
452.70
446.44
476.00
439.82
428.68
418.60
456.35
453.61
444.93
427.50
412.00
341.19
406.26
394.59
440.89
This buying looks a bit crazy, and yes, it would have been nice to have had sufficient patience and to have waited out BTC purchases for BTC prices to drop. But each of my buying increments were below my then buy-in average price and dropped my buy in average. Yes, it would have been much better to have waited until $300s or $400s to buy, but I did NOT know that the price would go down further, and I had wanted to stock up a bit, just in case the price went up rather than down.
Regarding trading: Frequently, I screw up when I attempt to trade, but I am NOT opposed to cashing out some BTC if we were to have a good and decent run up on prices (even though there still can be problems timing selling at or near the top very well and then questioning when to buy again). I would prefer to get into the black first before I begin to trade very much, if possible.
