Author

Topic: I am pretty confident we are the new wealthy elite, gentlemen. - page 177. (Read 631985 times)

legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 2349
Eadem mutata resurgo
. . . To The Grave

This is why this classic thread is classic. Some folks eventually read all the posts from start to end. I did.

I believe this particular meme is better posted during the mania phase of a bubble, in which prices typically double in a week.

I think it has mostly been revived during times of extremis which means it is actually an excellent indicator of turning points ... dyodd.
legendary
Activity: 3948
Merit: 11416
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
How many people have not heard about Bitcoin?  I ask people about it all of the time and almost everyone looks at me puzzled and then asks me what it is.  Only a couple people have even heard about it.  One was very much of a "libertarian" mindset so he had studied it.  I live fairly close to Los Angeles so this is a highly populated area in the US and even pretty "high tech."  I am starting to see more things in the news though and it is slowly gaining some awareness.  But there is no way we are at the "halfway point" yet.  I guess if it remains a "niche" currency, perhaps, but there is so many things in the works that it is highly unlikely that happens.

We can't just rely on this though. For all we know bitcoin can still die before it reaches its potential or remain a niche that only a handful are willing to use. I'm on your side but I'm just being realistic


I think that's what I am saying too. 

Surely we see quite a bit of attention going into the expansion of bitcoin with increased merchant acceptance and also the spreading of ATMs, but there is also some pull back too, such as Apple making matters difficult and regulations and China FUD and various incidents of BTC being stolen (GOX).  So in that regard, we may NOT know that we are more than halfway through the life until after we have past the point of half way.

I also see that there is a lot of bitcoin potential, and that is why I have diverted quite a few of my investment funds from other asset classes, such as index stock funds to instead be invested in bitcoin.  NONETHELESS, if next year we have a 10X increase - then we can be assured we are NOT half way yet in bitcoin's adoption......   But if we do NOT, then we may need to question whether we har past half way or whether a different model is more applicable to bitcoin. 

Anyhow, maybe I am just getting a little more concerned about my investment based on this nearly 5 month long downtrend in prices... 
legendary
Activity: 1330
Merit: 1000
dafar consulting
How many people have not heard about Bitcoin?  I ask people about it all of the time and almost everyone looks at me puzzled and then asks me what it is.  Only a couple people have even heard about it.  One was very much of a "libertarian" mindset so he had studied it.  I live fairly close to Los Angeles so this is a highly populated area in the US and even pretty "high tech."  I am starting to see more things in the news though and it is slowly gaining some awareness.  But there is no way we are at the "halfway point" yet.  I guess if it remains a "niche" currency, perhaps, but there is so many things in the works that it is highly unlikely that happens.

We can't just rely on this though. For all we know bitcoin can still die before it reaches its potential or remain a niche that only a handful are willing to use. I'm on your side but I'm just being realistic
hero member
Activity: 1372
Merit: 783
better everyday ♥
I don't think we can be at the halfway point of Bitcoin's life, he/she's only turned 5 years old recently:




Somehow I think ole Bitcoin is going to outlive each and everyone of us.
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1001
So if I have just one coin, I will be wealthy?
No, sorry.


In contrast to mass conventional wisdom, I believe that owning a single bitcoin will rapidly become impossible for the average person in a developed country. Prices have been increasing on average 10x per year, and according to a logistic model of bitcoin adoption that I maintain, that astounding rate of increase will continue year by year until the half way point of adoption, at which the rate of increase rapidly diminishes.

Anyone here should have some idea how far, far away we are from the half way point of adoption. Assume some portion of transacting entities, i.e. persons, businesses and governments, will ever use bitcoin - and some portion never will. How many years will it take for the former portion to have half its members adopt bitcoin?

I believe the average person in this world having a single bitcoin will be among the wealthy persons in their respective city. It is difficult to imagine such a situation given the current price of a bitcoin - yet the great temptation will be to spend it too soon, i.e. within four years of purchase.


Who's to say that we have NOT already reached the half way point of adoption?

 In the event that bitcoin remains somewhat of a niche and somewhat marginalized by various sabotage attempts, then bitcoin will NOT be able to maintain 10X annual increases.  









How many people have not heard about Bitcoin?  I ask people about it all of the time and almost everyone looks at me puzzled and then asks me what it is.  Only a couple people have even heard about it.  One was very much of a "libertarian" mindset so he had studied it.  I live fairly close to Los Angeles so this is a highly populated area in the US and even pretty "high tech."  I am starting to see more things in the news though and it is slowly gaining some awareness.  But there is no way we are at the "halfway point" yet.  I guess if it remains a "niche" currency, perhaps, but there is so many things in the works that it is highly unlikely that happens.
legendary
Activity: 3948
Merit: 11416
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
So if I have just one coin, I will be wealthy?
No, sorry.


In contrast to mass conventional wisdom, I believe that owning a single bitcoin will rapidly become impossible for the average person in a developed country. Prices have been increasing on average 10x per year, and according to a logistic model of bitcoin adoption that I maintain, that astounding rate of increase will continue year by year until the half way point of adoption, at which the rate of increase rapidly diminishes.

Anyone here should have some idea how far, far away we are from the half way point of adoption. Assume some portion of transacting entities, i.e. persons, businesses and governments, will ever use bitcoin - and some portion never will. How many years will it take for the former portion to have half its members adopt bitcoin?

I believe the average person in this world having a single bitcoin will be among the wealthy persons in their respective city. It is difficult to imagine such a situation given the current price of a bitcoin - yet the great temptation will be to spend it too soon, i.e. within four years of purchase.


Who's to say that we have NOT already reached the half way point of adoption?

 In the event that bitcoin remains somewhat of a niche and somewhat marginalized by various sabotage attempts, then bitcoin will NOT be able to maintain 10X annual increases.   







legendary
Activity: 1330
Merit: 1000
dafar consulting
Wut about this?



or this?







people love drawing lines out of their ass... but who can i trust  Roll Eyes Huh
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 501
Stephen Reed
. . . To The Grave

This is why this classic thread is classic. Some folks eventually read all the posts from start to end. I did.

I believe this particular meme is better posted during the mania phase of a bubble, in which prices typically double in a week.
legendary
Activity: 1918
Merit: 1018

In contrast to mass conventional wisdom, I believe that owning a single bitcoin will rapidly become impossible for the average person in a developed country. Prices have been increasing on average 10x per year, and according to a logistic model of bitcoin adoption that I maintain, that astounding rate of increase will continue year by year until the half way point of adoption, at which the rate of increase rapidly diminishes.


You're on slippery slope buddy


wut abt this guys?



Why you gotta post this?  Now, we're definitely going to zero now.   Cry

Nah, I don't buy it!  All this means is cheap Bitcoins to buy.  BUY BUY BUY!

You can draw 1000 lines like that since the beginning of Bitcoin

We are having a healthy correction fuelled by China's ban/not ban and mtgox
hero member
Activity: 1372
Merit: 783
better everyday ♥

In contrast to mass conventional wisdom, I believe that owning a single bitcoin will rapidly become impossible for the average person in a developed country. Prices have been increasing on average 10x per year, and according to a logistic model of bitcoin adoption that I maintain, that astounding rate of increase will continue year by year until the half way point of adoption, at which the rate of increase rapidly diminishes.


You're on slippery slope buddy


wut abt this guys?



Why you gotta post this?  Now, we're definitely going to zero now.   Cry

Nah, I don't buy it!  All this means is cheap Bitcoins to buy.  BUY BUY BUY!
legendary
Activity: 1330
Merit: 1000
dafar consulting

In contrast to mass conventional wisdom, I believe that owning a single bitcoin will rapidly become impossible for the average person in a developed country. Prices have been increasing on average 10x per year, and according to a logistic model of bitcoin adoption that I maintain, that astounding rate of increase will continue year by year until the half way point of adoption, at which the rate of increase rapidly diminishes.


You're on slippery slope buddy


wut abt this guys?

hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 501
Stephen Reed
... and according to a logistic model of bitcoin adoption that I maintain, that astounding rate of increase will continue year by year until the half way point of adoption, at which the rate of increase rapidly diminishes.
...
I wonder about that. Your model does follow adoption of products for example. You may be right. But bitcoin has some properties that are more comparable to something like domain names. In that case the demand seems to grow based on increasing uses for the internet protocol. It's going to be interesting to look back 10 years from now.

Peter_R has discovered evidence that Metcalfe's Law applies to Bitcoin - which I comment about here . . .

Metcalfe's Law Explains 10x Price Growth Vs. 3.2x Transaction Quantity Growth
hero member
Activity: 630
Merit: 500
Bitgoblin
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1767
Cлaвa Укpaїнi!
No, not the first. But for clarity and simplicity of explanation, you win 2 internet stars and a lollipop.

And thank you for the stars and the lollipop.
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1767
Cлaвa Укpaїнi!
legendary
Activity: 3066
Merit: 1147
The revolution will be monetized!
... and according to a logistic model of bitcoin adoption that I maintain, that astounding rate of increase will continue year by year until the half way point of adoption, at which the rate of increase rapidly diminishes.
...
I wonder about that. Your model does follow adoption of products for example. You may be right. But bitcoin has some properties that are more comparable to something like domain names. In that case the demand seems to grow based on increasing uses for the internet protocol. It's going to be interesting to look back 10 years from now.
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 501
Stephen Reed
So if I have just one coin, I will be wealthy?
No, sorry.


In contrast to mass conventional wisdom, I believe that owning a single bitcoin will rapidly become impossible for the average person in a developed country. Prices have been increasing on average 10x per year, and according to a logistic model of bitcoin adoption that I maintain, that astounding rate of increase will continue year by year until the half way point of adoption, at which the rate of increase rapidly diminishes.

Anyone here should have some idea how far, far away we are from the half way point of adoption. Assume some portion of transacting entities, i.e. persons, businesses and governments, will ever use bitcoin - and some portion never will. How many years will it take for the former portion to have half its members adopt bitcoin?

I believe the average person in this world having a single bitcoin will be among the wealthy persons in their respective city. It is difficult to imagine such a situation given the current price of a bitcoin - yet the great temptation will be to spend it too soon, i.e. within four years of purchase.
legendary
Activity: 1918
Merit: 1018
So if I have just one coin, I will be wealthy?

Yes. But you might have to wait for one or two decades. In 5 years, we got from $0.0008 to $500. Who knows? In another 10 or 20 years, we might reach $1,000,000.  Be patient, collect as many coins as you can... and hope for the best.  Grin

Note: And most importantly, keep your wallet secure and take regular backups.

Or use a paper wallet
legendary
Activity: 3808
Merit: 1219
So if I have just one coin, I will be wealthy?

Yes. But you might have to wait for one or two decades. In 5 years, we got from $0.0008 to $500. Who knows? In another 10 or 20 years, we might reach $1,000,000.  Be patient, collect as many coins as you can... and hope for the best.  Grin

Note: And most importantly, keep your wallet secure and take regular backups.
legendary
Activity: 1302
Merit: 1008
Core dev leaves me neg feedback #abuse #political
Jump to: