Topic: I believe the price has nowhere to go but down and here's why I think so. (Read 4869 times)

   Please explain. A protocol is a set of rules. In the case, a procedure for sharing information. Value is information. If you use the blockchain, you adhere to the rules. Otherwise you are on your own blockchain. I will agree with you, bitcoin is also a prototype. So was/is tcp/ip.

     I am not a human. I am a composite of organic and inorganic materials. It's okay to dream, people.

+1

Bitcoin isn't a protocol, it's a prototype.

Bitcoin or any bitcoin fork/alt, you mean

    There are thousands, if not millions, of absolutely plausible scenarios that could happen within the next decade which could drive the price for one bitcoin well above 10,000 USD. Admittedly, in many of these scenarios, the buying power of USD would be greatly decreased. In other words, we could see 10,000 USD bitcoin, but by that time 10,000 USD might be what a set of new tires costs.

      I do think that bitcoin reaching 10,000 dollars a coin and the buying power of the USD remianing steady is unlikely- if bitcoin starts to go mainstream fast it will only be because of widespread hyperinflation, which would lead to a flight out of dollars and devaluation. If bitcoin goes mainstream slow, it will be because of advantages as a payment system, and we won't see such a radical increase in terms of real purchasing power.

      I consistently hear people claiming that new and improved versions of bitcoin will come out. Why hasn't a better store of value than gold been found in thousands of years?

   A lot of people compare bitcoin's growth to the growth of the internet. They compare bitcoin to Netscape, saying it is the first, but better will come out. I say no way José, bitcoin is TCP/IP. After all, bitcoin is a protocol, not a program.

     Just adding to the diversity of opinions.

   I live in Europe and I would like an option to opt out of socialized medicine.

Oh, now I get it. You hold stock in insurance and pharma, right? Yeah. ACA will be awesome for you.

Such ignorance.  Wake up!

You had me going until just then, lol. Such naivete.

duh
you are totally right hence i withdraw that part of my argument...derp

unless someone does something about making it easy for normal non-techy people to get bitcoin I agree with the doom in the op.

I can buy just about anything online with a credit card or paypal but try to buy bitcoin and it's suddenly a spanish inquisition and hoop after hoop to jump through.

That's actually a 10-70x decrease in currency value. Invalid comparison. Just saying.

The real value does not have to do with speculation. Speculation is about predicting the future real value. The real value has to do with it being used as a currency for goods, services, and savings.

Just taking the US into account (to make the numbers easier) if one of every hundred people in the US put one percent of their savings into Bitcoin—not counting any other uses—the exchange rate would have to be roughly $1000 per Bitcoin. We're a long way from that level of adoption but I think it shows that there is a long way up. In a utopian "Bitcoin becomes the one world currency" scenario, we'd have to add about eight more decimal places because one satoshi would be more than an upper-middle-class family earns in a year.

DISCLAIMER: all maths leading to these conclusions were done off the top of my head, and could be wrong by several orders of magnitude. Do the numbers yourself before repeating any such figures.

DISCLAIMER 2: I'm not claiming that these conditions will happen, I'm just saying that there is a lot of room for the value of BTC to increase. If those conditions don't come to pass (if large numbers of people don't start using Bitcoin for something other than speculation) Bitcoin could drop back below a dollar in a few years. There's no question that BTC is in a large speculative bubble—the question is whether the speculators are right and the actual trading value of BTC will eventually be tied to goods and services rather than speculators and fiat currency.

Only if Scientology would have taken over the housing market.

Who knows was your aunt by chance living in Hubbarts neighborhood?

the blind optimism in this thread is sad and childish. bitcoin will never be worth 10000 usd. it is a pipe dream and you better let it go. bitcoin is supposed to be a currency not your personal lottery ticket. sadly beliefs like this are probably the reason why we are still close to the tripple digits as it keeps holders of big amounts of bitcoins from cashing out. the price of bitcoin is just reflects the current sentiment towards this pipe dream. Coinseeker is being called a troll and ignored for bringing a little bit of realism to bitcoin wonderland. if crypto currency will succeed bitcoin will be surpassed by something better. best case scenario is that there will be a perpetual stream of cryptocurrencies that never really break out into the mainstream similar to the centralized grey area currencies like perfect money, liqpay and liberty reserve. in any case i bet my left nut that 10k for one coin will never happen and it never should because value fluctuations are poison for a currency. but it is still early and bitcoin has been widely successful but we need people actually using it instead of the get rich quick crowd that hopes that bitcoin will enable them to comfortably retire in the near future.

Are you saying the principle isn't the same?

   It does look like potential buyers are sitting back and waiting to see what happens. Perhaps there will be the capitulation some are talking about, perhaps Kipochi-Argentina-Iceland will take off.
   
   As for the $1 millibit, all we need to wait for to see it is the end of the petrodollar.

  The US is trying to get in the best possible position for when this happens. Swamped in dollar denominated debt and with the ability to devalue the dollar, what would you do? Make that debt cheaper.

   By issuing more debt internationally and buying up debt domestically, political support is secured at home and bond holders are left holding the short end of the stick. There is no intention to repay this debt. As with all sovereign defaults, it will be renegotiated at a hefty discount. Wars usually accompany these re-negotiations, with deal struck depending on the outcome of the war.

   Read about it in a book called "This time is different: 800 years of financial folly" written by some US treasury officials.

The smart/lucky ones bought in at the bottom, waiting to dump at a decent high/depth.  That's what speculators do -- buy low, sell high


You mean to say unlucky/lazy hands.  People invest to make, not lose money.


... or the thing responsible for crashes in the past -- *nothing*.

Speculators will move in full swing when there's a significant drop.

We've seen the speculators get flushed out, when the price moved down to $60

Now it's only strong hands holding bitcoin.

I don't see any downwards movements in the near future, unless there is a fundamental cause - ie. a problem with the blockchain or protocol, or a serious competitor